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AAL Stock Forecast: American Airlines Group, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 5 Oct 2026
$13
−0.85% on the day

The 25 Wall Street analysts covering American Airlines Group, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $16 — +24.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 52 of 100 as at 5 Oct 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$8.6B
Ticker Nerd rank
52 / 100
Median analyst target
$16
Analysts covering
25
Revenue$16.7B+16.3% y/y
Operating income$453.0M
Net income$71.0M
Free cash flow−$351.0M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−5.1%
1M
−2.3%
YTD
−16.3%
1Y
+10.8%
From 52W high
−29.3%
From 52W low
+26.0%
$10
$18
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

AAL stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores American Airlines Group, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 5 Oct 2026
52 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Issuance
84
Accruals
76
Value
71
Volatility
59
Momentum
56
Quality
51
Revisions
43
Growth
23
Size
17

Issuance (84): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.

Growth (23): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.

Size (17): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

AAL stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on AAL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$10$15$20$25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26AALHigh $25Median $16Low $10

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says25 analysts
12 Buy11 Hold2 Sell
Low $10Median $16High $25

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +24.7% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 1 moved their price target up and 11 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
2 Oct 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsSell$13 → $11
2 Oct 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$16 → $15
28 Sept 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsMarket Perform$19 → $16
28 Sept 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line$17 → $13
18 Sept 2026Rothschild & CoMaintainsNeutral—
18 Sept 2026Rothschild & CoMaintainsNeutral$13 → $14
11 Sept 2026BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight$19 → $14
11 Sept 2026BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight—
10 Sept 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
10 Sept 2026UBSMaintainsBuy$18 → $17
24 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
24 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$24 → $16
27 July 2026UBSMaintainsBuy$21 → $18
27 July 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
24 July 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsMarket Perform$20 → $19
24 July 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsMarket Perform—
24 July 2026CitigroupMaintainsBuy—
24 July 2026CitigroupMaintainsBuy$22 → $19
24 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsSell—
24 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsSell$15 → $13

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. AAL appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

AAL vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 5 Oct 2026, American Airlines Group, Inc. returned +10.8% against +17.0% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

AAL vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
80100120140160Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26AALS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

AAL analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−374.6%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
4
Fundamentals

American Airlines Group, Inc. (AAL) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
43.7×

Cheaper than 17% of US stocks

Price / sales
0.1×

Cheaper than 94% of US stocks

Price / book
−2.2×

Cheaper than 95% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
10.7×

Cheaper than 35% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
16.3%

Higher than 64% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−88.1%

Higher than 4% of US stocks

Gross margin
17.9%

Higher than 18% of US stocks

Operating margin
2.8%

Higher than 50% of US stocks

Net margin
−0.6%

Higher than 29% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
−3.0%

Higher than 41% of US stocks

Return on assets
1.1%

Higher than 51% of US stocks

Dividend yield
3.1%

Higher than 84% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

American Airlines Group, Inc. (AAL) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • American Airlines Group, Inc. has a market value of $8.6B and an enterprise value of $35.9B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $58.3B. The latest quarter grew 16.3% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: −$326.0M, a −0.6% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−0.49.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $285.0M, after $4.1B of capital spending.

  • Shares outstanding: 661.9M.

  • Trailing P/E: 43.7×; forward P/E: 6.9× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 3.09%, paying out 0% of earnings.

  • American Airlines Group, Inc. employs 143,400 people — $407K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 5 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

AAL vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelAirlines
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
AALAmerican Airlines Group, Inc.$8.6B
52
CPACopa Holdings SA$5.6B
66
ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.$4.4B
24
SKYWSkyWest, Inc.$3.7B
77
LUVSouthwest Airlines Co.$20.6B
75
ALGTAllegiant Travel Co.$2.0B
45
UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.$35.6B
50

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own American Airlines Group, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest AAL news & analysis

American Airlines' pilots union says Spirit's data sale to Google could undermine aviation safety

Business Insider · 3 Oct 2026neutral

The union representing American Airlines pilots objected this week to Spirit Airlines' sale of data to Google, citing privacy and safety concerns. The union joined prior objections to the sale.

Why it matters — American Airlines' pilots union is publicly raising safety concerns about an industry data-sharing arrangement, which AAL watchers may see as relevant to broader industry aviation-safety and data-practices debates.

American Airlines Lets Loyalty Program Members Combine Cash and Miles

PYMNTS · 2 Oct 2026neutral

American Airlines announced that eligible members of its AAdvantage loyalty program will be able to combine cash and miles when booking flights on its website and digital app. The feature is being rolled out over the coming weeks.

Why it matters — This change to AAdvantage booking options could affect customer engagement and loyalty program usage, which are relevant factors for AAL watchers.

American starts letting customers mix cash and miles for tickets

CNBC · 2 Oct 2026positive

American Airlines will begin allowing customers to book tickets using a combination of cash and AAdvantage miles. The change is part of the carrier's effort to make its loyalty program more attractive.

Why it matters — Since airline loyalty programs are highly lucrative, offering more flexible redemption options could help American drive greater engagement and usage of its AAdvantage program.

Delta CEO Ignored Elon Musk's Warning That “It Will Get Much Worse.” Now Musk Predicts Ed Bastian Will “Lose His Job” As United And American Race To Try And Poach Delta's Premium Customers

24/7 Wall Street · 2 Oct 2026neutral

Elon Musk has publicly predicted Delta's CEO will lose his job over a Wi-Fi decision, and United and American are reportedly spending money to attract Delta's premium customers, who contribute to its most profitable revenue streams. The rivalry centers on efforts to poach elite flyers from Delta.

Why it matters — An AAL watcher would care because American is actively competing to lure Delta's high-value premium customers, potentially benefiting American's revenue.

American Airlines Group announces webcast of third-quarter 2026 financial results

GlobeNewsWire · 1 Oct 2026neutral

American Airlines Group announced it will webcast a live audio feed of its third-quarter 2026 financial results conference call on Oct. 22 at 7:30 a.m. CT. The announcement was made Oct. 1, 2026.

Why it matters — AAL watchers can tune in to hear the company discuss its third-quarter financial performance and outlook.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about AAL stock

What is the AAL stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 25 Wall Street analysts covering American Airlines Group, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $16, with estimates ranging from $10 to $25. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is AAL stock a buy right now?

Of the 25 analysts covering American Airlines Group, Inc., 12 rate it a Buy, 11 a Hold and 2 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks American Airlines Group, Inc. 52 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 5 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank AAL?

As at 5 Oct 2026, American Airlines Group, Inc. ranks 52 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (84 of 100).

Will AAL stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 25 analysts implies +24.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks American Airlines Group, Inc. 52 out of 100 as at 5 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the AAL stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering American Airlines Group, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for AAL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $10 to $25 over the next 12 months.

How has AAL stock performed over the past year?

American Airlines Group, Inc. returned +10.8% over the 12 months to 5 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does American Airlines Group, Inc. do?

American Airlines Group Inc. is a global airline holding company that operates scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation through its principal subsidiary, American Airlines.

What is the latest news on AAL?

The most recent item we track (Business Insider, 3 Oct 2026): "American Airlines' pilots union says Spirit's data sale to Google could undermine aviation safety". The union representing American Airlines pilots objected this week to Spirit Airlines' sale of data to Google, citing privacy and safety concerns. The union joined prior objections to the sale.

Company

About American Airlines Group, Inc.

American Airlines Group Inc. is a global airline holding company that operates scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation through its principal subsidiary, American Airlines. The company serves business and leisure travelers across a broad network spanning domestic, Latin American, Atlantic, and Pacific markets, supported by major hubs in cities such as Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C. Its operations also include regional flying through American Eagle partners and cargo services that connect key commercial and freight markets. American Airlines Group plays a central role in U.S. and international aviation by linking major metropolitan areas, supporting long-haul and short-haul travel, and providing transportation services across one of the industry’s most extensive route systems. Headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas, American Airlines Group Inc. remains one of the best-known names in commercial aviation.

CEO Mr. Robert D. Isom Jr. · 143,400 employees · United States · https://www.aa.com