AAOITechnology · Communication EquipmentThe 6 Wall Street analysts covering Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $115 — +138.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 20 of 100 as at 10 Nov 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Growth (82): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.
Volatility (0): The share price moves around a lot.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on AAOI, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +138.0% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 0 moved their price target up and 7 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | B. Riley Securities | Maintains | Neutral | $92 → $45 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | $170 → $100 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Rosenblatt | Maintains | Buy | $220 → $115 |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | $190 → $170 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | B. Riley Securities | Maintains | Neutral | $109 → $92 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | B. Riley Securities | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 7 Aug 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 7 Aug 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | $220 → $190 |
| 7 Aug 2026 | Rosenblatt | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 7 Aug 2026 | Rosenblatt | Maintains | Buy | $220 |
| 22 July 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | $260 → $220 |
| 22 July 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 22 June 2026 | Rosenblatt | Maintains | Buy | $220 |
| 22 June 2026 | Rosenblatt | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 8 May 2026 | Rosenblatt | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 9 Mar 2026 | Rosenblatt | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 27 Feb 2026 | B. Riley Securities | Upgrade | Neutral | — |
| 27 Feb 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
AAOI is one of 20 companies in AI networking and servers, the part the free map shows in full.
AI cloud capacity
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AI chips
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AI networking and serversIn full
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Data centre power
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Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 10 Nov 2026, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. returned +90.0% against +11.2% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 99% of US stocks
Cheaper than 20% of US stocks
Cheaper than 43% of US stocks
Cheaper than 99% of US stocks
Higher than 94% of US stocks
Higher than 82% of US stocks
Higher than 31% of US stocks
Higher than 31% of US stocks
Higher than 24% of US stocks
Higher than 41% of US stocks
Higher than 38% of US stocks
Higher than 1% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. has a market value of $4.4B and an enterprise value of $4.1B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $596.0M. The latest quarter grew 127.5% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: −$57.0M, a −9.6% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: −$0.78.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$601.3M.
Trailing P/E: −75.5×; forward P/E: 12.6× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. employs 4,691 people — $127K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Optical stocks extended their AI rebound, with Coherent up 13% in early trading. The headline reports Applied Optoelectronics rose 4%.
Why it matters — The report places AAOI among optical stocks participating in the AI-related rebound.
Applied Optoelectronics shares rose 6.9% after its Q3 earnings, with AI-driven demand cited as a growth driver. The excerpt also flags margin pressure, stiff competition and a premium valuation as concerns.
Why it matters — AAOI watchers may weigh the demand-driven growth against the cited margin, competition and valuation concerns.
Applied Optoelectronics says demand for AI-related products will exceed its capacity through 2027. The company is sold out of 1.6T transceivers and signed a hyperscaler deal worth up to $1.5 billion, while its guidance remained below Wall Street expectations.
Why it matters — AAOI watchers may weigh the reported demand and deal against the capacity constraints and below-consensus guidance.
Applied Optoelectronics reported Q3 revenue up 127.5% to $269.9 million, with data center sales up 254% amid product-transition bottlenecks. It disclosed about $400–450 million in 1.6T orders, while processor shortages and manufacturing delays are delaying shipment conversion and shifting its $471 million monthly revenue run-rate target toward late 2027.
Why it matters — AAOI watchers may weigh strong sales growth and hyperscaler commitments against near-term supply constraints and a later timeline for the stated revenue run-rate target.
AI optical stocks rallied, with Coherent up 13%, Lumentum up 4%, and Applied Optoelectronics up 3%, as traders revisited a quarterly report after a sharp sell-off.
Why it matters — The broader rally among AI optical stocks included a 3% gain for Applied Optoelectronics.
The 6 Wall Street analysts covering Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $115, with estimates ranging from $45 to $165. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 6 analysts covering Applied Optoelectronics, Inc., 4 rate it a Buy, 2 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. 20 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 10 Nov 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 10 Nov 2026, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. ranks 20 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (82 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 6 analysts implies +138.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. 20 out of 100 as at 10 Nov 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for AAOI are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $45 to $165 over the next 12 months.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. returned +90.0% over the 12 months to 10 Nov 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. is a communications equipment company that designs, manufactures, and sells fiber-optic networking products for data centers, cable television broadband, telecommunications, and fiber-to-the-home networks.
The most recent item we track (24/7 Wall Street, 9 Nov 2026): "Coherent Jumps 13% as Optical Stocks Extend AI Rebound; Lumentum Surges 11%, Applied Optoelectronics Rises 4%". Optical stocks extended their AI rebound, with Coherent up 13% in early trading. The headline reports Applied Optoelectronics rose 4%.
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. is a communications equipment company that designs, manufactures, and sells fiber-optic networking products for data centers, cable television broadband, telecommunications, and fiber-to-the-home networks. Applied Optoelectronics Inc.’s portfolio spans optical modules, lasers, photodiodes, transceivers, subassemblies, and related turn-key equipment used to move high-speed data across fiber-based networks. The company also provides hybrid fiber coaxial and broadband access products that support network operators and service providers in delivering reliable connectivity. Its products serve cloud and internet data center operators, cable and telecom equipment makers, and broadband infrastructure customers across multiple regions. Headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas, and incorporated in 1997, Applied Optoelectronics Inc. plays a specialized role in the global optical communications market by supplying hardware that underpins modern digital infrastructure.
CEO Dr. Chih-Hsiang Lin Ph.D. · 4,691 employees · United States · https://www.ao-inc.com
