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AAOI Stock Forecast: Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 29 Sept 2026
$101
+3.98% on the day

The 6 Wall Street analysts covering Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $178 — +76.8% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 14 of 100 as at 29 Sept 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$8.2B
Ticker Nerd rank
14 / 100
Median analyst target
$178
Analysts covering
6
Revenue$191.9M+86.4% y/y
Operating income−$23.8M
Net income−$22.8M
Free cash flow−$274.1M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−5.9%
1M
−5.2%
YTD
+188.8%
1Y
+288.1%
From 52W high
−54.9%
From 52W low
+416.5%
$19
$223
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

AAOI stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 29 Sept 2026
14 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Growth
79
Momentum
77
Revisions
45
Quality
32
Size
17
Issuance
13
Accruals
12
Value
8
Volatility
0

Growth (79): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.

Volatility (0): The share price moves around a lot.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

AAOI stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on AAOI, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$0$50$100$150$200Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26AAOIHigh $220Median $178Low $109

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says6 analysts
3 Buy3 Hold0 Sell
Low $109Median $178High $220

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +76.8% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
7 Aug 2026NeedhamMaintainsBuy$220 → $190
7 Aug 2026RosenblattMaintainsBuy$220
22 July 2026NeedhamMaintainsBuy$260 → $220
22 July 2026NeedhamMaintainsBuy—
22 June 2026RosenblattMaintainsBuy—
22 June 2026RosenblattMaintainsBuy$220
8 May 2026RosenblattMaintainsBuy—
21 Apr 2026NeedhamMaintainsBuy—
9 Mar 2026RosenblattMaintainsBuy—
27 Feb 2026B. Riley SecuritiesUpgradeNeutral—
27 Feb 2026NeedhamMaintainsBuy—
27 Feb 2026RosenblattMaintainsBuy—
19 Feb 2026RosenblattMaintainsBuy—
19 Dec 2025RosenblattMaintainsBuy—
11 Dec 2025NeedhamMaintainsBuy—
11 Dec 2025RosenblattMaintainsBuy—
17 Nov 2025Northland Capital MarketsMaintainsOutperform—
10 Nov 2025B. Riley SecuritiesDowngradeSell—
8 Aug 2025B. Riley SecuritiesMaintainsNeutral—
8 Aug 2025Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. AAOI appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

AAOI vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 29 Sept 2026, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. returned +288.1% against +16.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

AAOI vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
0200400600800Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26AAOIS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

AAOI analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−23.5%
Analysts raising
2
Analysts cutting
4
Fundamentals

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
−158.8×

Cheaper than 99% of US stocks

Price / sales
14.4×

Cheaper than 11% of US stocks

Price / book
5.1×

Cheaper than 19% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
−248.8×

Cheaper than 98% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
86.4%

Higher than 91% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
86.4%

Higher than 82% of US stocks

Gross margin
27.7%

Higher than 31% of US stocks

Operating margin
−12.9%

Higher than 23% of US stocks

Net margin
−9.6%

Higher than 20% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
−5.4%

Higher than 39% of US stocks

Return on assets
−2.7%

Higher than 35% of US stocks

Dividend yield
—

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. has a market value of $8.2B and an enterprise value of $8.0B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $596.0M. The latest quarter grew 86.4% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: −$57.0M, a −9.6% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−0.78.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$601.3M.

  • Shares outstanding: 84.4M.

  • Trailing P/E: −158.8×; forward P/E: 21.9× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. employs 4,691 people — $127K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 29 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

AAOI vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelCommunication Equipment
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.$8.2B
14
VSATViaSat, Inc.$9.4B
62
VIAVViavi Solutions, Inc.$10.2B
63
BDCBelden, Inc.$4.3B
90
ONDSOndas, Inc.$4.3B
28
ZBRAZebra Technologies Corp.$17.9B
79
ASTSAST Spacemobile, Inc.$22.7B
6

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest AAOI news & analysis

AOI Marks 1 Millionth 1.8GHz Amplifier Shipped, Unveils New Broadband & Optical Product Demos at SCTE TechExpo 2026

PRNewsWire · 29 Sept 2026positive

AOI announced that it shipped its 1 millionth 1.8GHz amplifier and unveiled new broadband and optical product demonstrations, milestone celebrations, and speaker activity at the SCTE TechExpo 2026 in Atlanta, held September 29 through October 2.

Why it matters — AAOI watchers would care because the production milestone and new product demonstrations signal continued momentum and activity in the company's optical and HFC networking product lines.

Applied Optoelectronics: The Biggest Growth Phase Starts Now

Seeking Alpha · 29 Sept 2026positive

Applied Optoelectronics expects roughly $1.1 billion in 2026 revenue as 800G demand accelerates and production remains constrained by available capacity. Monthly 800G and 1.6T capacity is projected to expand from about 200,000 units toward 650,000 by year-end, with initial 1.6T orders exceeding $200 million and Q4 revenue expected at $70 million to $80 million before further scaling.

Why it matters — AAOI watchers would care because the company is outlining a major growth trajectory driven by accelerating 800G demand, capacity expansion, and early 1.6T orders.

Applied Optoelectronics Stock Slides Monday: What's Happening?

Benzinga · 28 Sept 2026negative

Applied Optoelectronics shares declined Monday afternoon, falling alongside the broader fiber optic connectivity sector. Rising Treasury yields have sparked concerns about a potential slowdown in enterprise AI infrastructure spending.

Why it matters — AAOI watchers would care because broader macroeconomic conditions and AI infrastructure spending concerns are pressuring the company's stock along with its sector.

Optics Stocks Slide Despite Citi's $11B Switching Forecast: Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics Drop 5%, Corning Falls 3%

24/7 Wall Street · 28 Sept 2026negative

Optics and photonics stocks, including Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics, fell in afternoon trading despite recent bullish research from Citi forecasting $11 billion in switching demand. Coherent dropped 5% to $280 while Applied Optoelectronics fell 5% and Corning declined 3%.

Why it matters — As part of the optics and photonics group, AAOI's share price movement reflects sector-wide selling pressure even amid generally supportive analyst research.

Applied Optoelectronics Rides on AI Boom: Can It Beat LITE and FN?

Zacks Investment Research · 24 Sept 2026positive

Applied Optoelectronics is benefiting from AI-driven data-center demand, with 800G sales surging, 1.6T orders surpassing $200 million, and manufacturing capacity being expanded to support growth.

Why it matters — AAOI watchers would care because the company is positioned to capitalize on growing AI infrastructure demand through strong advanced-product orders and expanded production capacity.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about AAOI stock

What is the AAOI stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 6 Wall Street analysts covering Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $178, with estimates ranging from $109 to $220. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is AAOI stock a buy right now?

Of the 6 analysts covering Applied Optoelectronics, Inc., 3 rate it a Buy, 3 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. 14 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 29 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank AAOI?

As at 29 Sept 2026, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. ranks 14 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (79 of 100).

Will AAOI stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 6 analysts implies +76.8% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. 14 out of 100 as at 29 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the AAOI stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for AAOI are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $109 to $220 over the next 12 months.

How has AAOI stock performed over the past year?

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. returned +288.1% over the 12 months to 29 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. do?

Applied Optoelectronics Inc. is a communications equipment company that designs, manufactures, and sells fiber-optic networking products for data centers, cable television broadband, telecommunications, and fiber-to-the-home networks.

What is the latest news on AAOI?

The most recent item we track (PRNewsWire, 29 Sept 2026): "AOI Marks 1 Millionth 1.8GHz Amplifier Shipped, Unveils New Broadband & Optical Product Demos at SCTE TechExpo 2026". AOI announced that it shipped its 1 millionth 1.8GHz amplifier and unveiled new broadband and optical product demonstrations, milestone celebrations, and speaker activity at the SCTE TechExpo 2026 in Atlanta, held September 29 through October 2.

Company

About Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

Applied Optoelectronics Inc. is a communications equipment company that designs, manufactures, and sells fiber-optic networking products for data centers, cable television broadband, telecommunications, and fiber-to-the-home networks. Applied Optoelectronics Inc.’s portfolio spans optical modules, lasers, photodiodes, transceivers, subassemblies, and related turn-key equipment used to move high-speed data across fiber-based networks. The company also provides hybrid fiber coaxial and broadband access products that support network operators and service providers in delivering reliable connectivity. Its products serve cloud and internet data center operators, cable and telecom equipment makers, and broadband infrastructure customers across multiple regions. Headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas, and incorporated in 1997, Applied Optoelectronics Inc. plays a specialized role in the global optical communications market by supplying hardware that underpins modern digital infrastructure.

CEO Dr. Chih-Hsiang Lin Ph.D. · 4,691 employees · United States · https://www.ao-inc.com