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ALRM Stock Forecast: Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 18 Sept 2026
$54
−0.53% on the day

The 6 Wall Street analysts covering Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $65 — +20.5% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 94 of 100 as at 19 Sept 2026 — among the strongest tenth. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.

Market cap
$2.6B
Ticker Nerd rank
94 / 100
Median analyst target
$65
Analysts covering
6
Revenue$277.7M+9.2% y/y
Operating income$32.5M
Net income$24.2M
Free cash flow$36.7M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−2.5%
1M
−2.9%
YTD
+5.8%
1Y
−3.0%
From 52W high
−6.3%
From 52W low
+28.1%
$42
$58
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

ALRM stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 19 Sept 2026
94 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Issuance
98
Volatility
93
Revisions
88
Value
84
Accruals
71
Quality
70
Momentum
62
Growth
36
Size
32

Issuance (98): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.

Growth (36): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.

Size (32): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

ALRM stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ALRM, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$40$50$60$70$80$90Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26ALRMHigh $85Median $65Low $40

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says6 analysts
3 Buy2 Hold1 Sell
Low $40Median $65High $85

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +20.5% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 2 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
10 Aug 2026BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight$55 → $60
8 May 2026BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight$50 → $55
8 May 2026BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight—
20 Feb 2026BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight—
18 Feb 2026JP MorganMaintainsUnderweight—
7 Nov 2025BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight—
9 May 2025Raymond JamesMaintainsStrong Buy—
17 Apr 2025Goldman SachsMaintainsNeutral—
14 Apr 2025BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight—
11 Nov 2024JP MorganAssumesUnderweight$65 → $50
8 Nov 2024BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight—
8 Nov 2024Goldman SachsMaintainsNeutral—
5 Nov 2024JefferiesInitiatesBuy—
9 Oct 2024Roth MKMMaintainsBuy—
7 Oct 2024BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight—
6 Sept 2024Goldman SachsInitiatesNeutral—
11 July 2024BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight—
23 Feb 2024BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight—
23 Feb 2024JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
12 Jan 2024JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. ALRM appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

ALRM vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 18 Sept 2026, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. returned −3.0% against +16.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

ALRM vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
708090100110120Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26ALRMS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

ALRM analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+4.4%
Analysts raising
6
Analysts cutting
0
Fundamentals

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
23.9×

Cheaper than 31% of US stocks

Price / sales
2.5×

Cheaper than 46% of US stocks

Price / book
3.1×

Cheaper than 32% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
16.6×

Cheaper than 19% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
9.2%

Higher than 50% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−29.8%

Higher than 16% of US stocks

Gross margin
65.6%

Higher than 79% of US stocks

Operating margin
15.1%

Higher than 72% of US stocks

Net margin
11.1%

Higher than 72% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
13.3%

Higher than 71% of US stocks

Return on assets
5.0%

Higher than 76% of US stocks

Dividend yield
—

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. has a market value of $2.6B and an enterprise value of $2.8B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.1B. The latest quarter grew 9.2% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $117.3M, a 11.1% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $2.26.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $186.6M, after $1.1M of capital spending.

  • Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. spent $76.4M on share buybacks in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 49.0M.

  • Trailing P/E: 23.9×; forward P/E: 17.6× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. employs 2,051 people — $517K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 19 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

ALRM vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelSoftware - Application
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
ALRMAlarm.com Holdings, Inc.$2.6B
94
GRNDGrindr, Inc.$2.7B
86
ADEAAdeia, Inc.$2.7B
91
SOUNSoundHound AI, Inc.$2.6B
23
BRZEBraze, Inc.$2.8B
63
INTAIntapp, Inc.$2.8B
77
AGYSAgilysys, Inc.$2.8B
84

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest ALRM news & analysis

5 Top-Ranked Efficient Stocks With Strong Growth Potential

Zacks Investment Research · 10 Sept 2026neutral

Zacks Investment Research published a screen of five top-ranked stocks with strong growth potential based on above-industry efficiency ratios and strong earnings surprise records. Wayfair leads the list of companies selected in this screening.

Why it matters — Alarm.com watchers may track efficiency-based stock screens to see whether the company appears on similar rankings, though ALRM is not mentioned in this particular list.

Alarm.com: Poised To Benefit From The Rise In Millennial Homeownership

Seeking Alpha · 5 Sept 2026positive

Alarm.com reported a quarterly revenue beat of nearly 10%, though Wall Street largely overlooked the performance. The article notes that millennials have embraced home security systems more than prior generations, presenting a growth opportunity for the company.

Why it matters — Strong revenue growth combined with rising millennial adoption of home security could signal a durable demand tailwind that ALRM watchers should monitor.

Shooter Detection Systems' Gunshot Detection System Earns Fourth Consecutive Secure Campus Award

Business Wire · 18 Aug 2026positive

Shooter Detection Systems, an Alarm.com company, received its fourth consecutive Campus Security Today Secure Campus Award for its SDS Perimeter Outdoor Gunshot Detection System, recognized in the Fire/Life Safety category. The award follows four years of recognition for SDS' indoor and outdoor gunshot detection solutions across multiple categories.

Why it matters — The recognition highlights the growing role and continued industry acknowledgment of Alarm.com's gunshot detection offerings, reinforcing the company's presence in the safety and security market.

ALRM vs. ASAZY: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?

Zacks Investment Research · 11 Aug 2026neutral

Zacks Investment Research published a comparison of Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM) and Assa Abloy AB (ASAZY), both classified under Security and Safety Services, examining which offers value investors a better option at this time.

Why it matters — ALRM watchers would care because the piece directly evaluates Alarm.com's value proposition relative to a comparable security-services peer.

ALRM or ASAZY: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?

Zacks Investment Research · 10 Aug 2026neutral

Zacks Investment Research published an article comparing Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM) and Assa Abloy AB (ASAZY) within the Security and Safety Services sector, examining which company may be the better option for investors seeking undervalued stocks.

Why it matters — ALRM watchers would care because the piece positions Alarm.com among sector peers in a value-investing comparison, potentially influencing how investors evaluate the stock.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about ALRM stock

What is the ALRM stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 6 Wall Street analysts covering Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $65, with estimates ranging from $40 to $85. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is ALRM stock a buy right now?

Of the 6 analysts covering Alarm.com Holdings, Inc., 3 rate it a Buy, 2 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. 94 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 19 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank ALRM?

As at 19 Sept 2026, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ranks 94 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (98 of 100).

Will ALRM stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 6 analysts implies +20.5% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. 94 out of 100 as at 19 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the ALRM stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ALRM are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $40 to $85 over the next 12 months.

How has ALRM stock performed over the past year?

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. returned -3.0% over the 12 months to 18 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. do?

Alarm.com Holdings Inc. is a technology company that provides a cloud-based platform for connected properties.

What is the latest news on ALRM?

The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 10 Sept 2026): "5 Top-Ranked Efficient Stocks With Strong Growth Potential". Zacks Investment Research published a screen of five top-ranked stocks with strong growth potential based on above-industry efficiency ratios and strong earnings surprise records. Wayfair leads the list of companies selected in this screening.

Company

About Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

Alarm.com Holdings Inc. is a technology company that provides a cloud-based platform for connected properties. Its services support residential, multi-family, small business, and enterprise commercial users with security, video monitoring, access control, automation, energy management, and water safety solutions. The company’s platform is designed to help customers monitor and manage properties remotely through smart devices and integrated software. Alarm.com Holdings Inc. also serves service providers that install, support, and maintain these systems, making it a key infrastructure provider in the smart security and property technology market. Its products and services are used across North America and in international markets, giving it a broad role in the expanding Internet of Things ecosystem.

CEO Mr. Stephen S. Trundle · 2,051 employees · United States · https://www.alarm.com