ALRMTechnology · Software - ApplicationThe 6 Wall Street analysts covering Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $65 — -4.4% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 96 of 100 as at 3 Nov 2026 — among the strongest tenth. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Issuance (98): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.
Growth (36): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.
Size (29): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ALRM, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −4.4% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 3 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Underweight | $40 → $50 |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $55 → $60 |
| 8 May 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $50 → $55 |
| 8 May 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 20 Feb 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 18 Feb 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Underweight | — |
| 7 Nov 2025 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 9 May 2025 | Raymond James | Maintains | Strong Buy | — |
| 17 Apr 2025 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 14 Apr 2025 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 11 Nov 2024 | JP Morgan | Assumes | Underweight | $65 → $50 |
| 8 Nov 2024 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 8 Nov 2024 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 5 Nov 2024 | Jefferies | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 9 Oct 2024 | Roth MKM | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 7 Oct 2024 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 6 Sept 2024 | Goldman Sachs | Initiates | Neutral | — |
| 11 July 2024 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 23 Feb 2024 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
ALRM appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
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Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 4 Nov 2026, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. returned +40.2% against +14.8% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 26% of US stocks
Cheaper than 39% of US stocks
Cheaper than 25% of US stocks
Cheaper than 14% of US stocks
Higher than 51% of US stocks
Higher than 17% of US stocks
Higher than 79% of US stocks
Higher than 73% of US stocks
Higher than 71% of US stocks
Higher than 71% of US stocks
Higher than 76% of US stocks
Higher than 1% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. has a market value of $3.2B and an enterprise value of $3.4B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.1B. The latest quarter grew 9.2% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $117.3M, a 11.1% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $2.26.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $186.6M, after $1.1M of capital spending.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. spent $76.4M on share buybacks in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 29.2×; forward P/E: 21.4× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. employs 2,051 people — $517K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Alarm.com announced that it will report its 2026 third-quarter results on November 5, 2026.
Why it matters — ALRM watchers can note the scheduled date for the company’s third-quarter results announcement.
Zacks Investment Research published an Industry Outlook article highlighting Allegion, ADT, Alarm.com Holdings and Ituran Location and Control.
Why it matters — The article includes Alarm.com Holdings among the companies covered in the industry outlook.
Zacks Investment Research reports that rising costs and higher labor expenses are weighing on prospects for the Security and Safety Services industry. Alarm.com is named among the notable industry players alongside ALLE, ADT and ITRN.
Why it matters — ALRM watchers may note the industry cost pressures cited in the report, which places Alarm.com among the companies in the sector.
Alarm.com announced the launch of the Alarm.com 781B Battery Video Doorbell, a battery-powered, Wi-Fi-connected device with intelligent video capabilities designed for locations without existing doorbell wiring. The product is aimed at homeowners and businesses seeking to add video security to entryways throughout their properties.
Why it matters — The new product expands Alarm.com's intelligent video portfolio to cover a broader range of entryways, potentially broadening its addressable market among customers without existing doorbell wiring.
Zacks Investment Research highlights recent unusual movements in the options market for Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM) stock. The article notes that investors should pay close attention to ALRM shares based on these options activity shifts, without drawing specific conclusions.
Why it matters — Options market movements can signal shifts in how sophisticated traders view Alarm.com's prospects, making this a development worth monitoring.
The 6 Wall Street analysts covering Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $65, with estimates ranging from $50 to $85. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 6 analysts covering Alarm.com Holdings, Inc., 3 rate it a Buy, 2 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. 96 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 3 Nov 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 3 Nov 2026, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. ranks 96 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (98 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 6 analysts implies -4.4% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. 96 out of 100 as at 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ALRM are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $50 to $85 over the next 12 months.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. returned +40.2% over the 12 months to 4 Nov 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Alarm.com Holdings Inc. is a technology company that provides a cloud-based platform for connected properties.
The most recent item we track (Business Wire, 22 Oct 2026): "Alarm.com to Announce 2026 Third Quarter Results on November 5, 2026". Alarm.com announced that it will report its 2026 third-quarter results on November 5, 2026.
Alarm.com Holdings Inc. is a technology company that provides a cloud-based platform for connected properties. Its services support residential, multi-family, small business, and enterprise commercial users with security, video monitoring, access control, automation, energy management, and water safety solutions. The company’s platform is designed to help customers monitor and manage properties remotely through smart devices and integrated software. Alarm.com Holdings Inc. also serves service providers that install, support, and maintain these systems, making it a key infrastructure provider in the smart security and property technology market. Its products and services are used across North America and in international markets, giving it a broad role in the expanding Internet of Things ecosystem.
CEO Mr. Stephen S. Trundle · 2,051 employees · United States · https://www.alarm.com
