DBXTechnology · Software - InfrastructureThe 7 Wall Street analysts covering Dropbox, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $30 — -11.5% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 83 of 100 as at 1 Oct 2026 — inside the top quartile. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Dropbox, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Volatility (92): The share price has been relatively steady.
Growth (49): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.
Size (18): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on DBX, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −11.5% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 3 moved their price target up and 2 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sept 2026 | Citigroup | Downgrade | Sell | $33 → $29 |
| 3 Sept 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterates | Outperform | — |
| 3 Sept 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterates | Outperform | $42 |
| 7 Aug 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | $28 → $33 |
| 7 Aug 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 7 Aug 2026 | William Blair | Upgrade | Market Perform | — |
| 7 Aug 2026 | William Blair | Upgrade | Market Perform | — |
| 11 May 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | $27 → $28 |
| 11 May 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 8 May 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 8 May 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Outperform | $30 → $32 |
| 23 Mar 2026 | William Blair | Downgrade | Underperform | — |
| 20 Feb 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 20 Feb 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 20 Feb 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Sell | — |
| 5 Jan 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 7 Nov 2025 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 18 Sept 2025 | UBS | Assumes | Sell | $29 → $27 |
| 8 Aug 2025 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 9 May 2025 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. DBX appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 2 Oct 2026, Dropbox, Inc. returned +13.6% against +15.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 38% of US stocks
Cheaper than 41% of US stocks
Cheaper than 96% of US stocks
Cheaper than 29% of US stocks
Higher than 29% of US stocks
Higher than 19% of US stocks
Higher than 91% of US stocks
Higher than 85% of US stocks
Higher than 80% of US stocks
Higher than 28% of US stocks
Higher than 97% of US stocks
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Dropbox, Inc. has a market value of $7.4B and an enterprise value of $10.2B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $2.5B. The latest quarter grew 0.9% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $442.8M, a 17.5% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.80.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $953.8M, after $23.4M of capital spending.
Dropbox, Inc. spent $1.5B on share buybacks in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 18.7×; forward P/E: 10.2× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Dropbox, Inc. employs 2,113 people — $1.2M of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Dropbox, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Dropbox (DBX) shares closed at $32.66 in the latest trading day, reflecting a 4.56% decline compared to the prior close and underperforming the broader market.
Why it matters — A 4.56% drop greater than the broader market's decline signals notable negative price movement for Dropbox that DBX watchers would want to track.
Dropbox shares fell after Citi downgraded the stock, citing valuation concerns. The analyst said the share price has prematurely reflected anticipated growth from artificial intelligence.
Why it matters — The downgrade signals that a major analyst believes Dropbox's stock is already priced ahead of its AI-driven growth prospects, which investors tracking DBX should note.
In the latest trading session, Dropbox (DBX) closed at $36.48, falling 3% from the previous day. The decline came despite broader market gains.
Why it matters — A DBX watcher would care because the stock underperformed the broader market in the most recent session, a notable negative move worth tracking.
DBX was added to the Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) List on September 17th, 2026, according to Zacks Investment Research. The stock was included alongside OZK and CSR in this update.
Why it matters — A DBX watcher would note that the stock has been placed on a Strong Sell list, indicating a negative near-term outlook according to Zacks' ranking system.
Dropbox's co-CEO sold 28,800 shares worth $1.0 million on September 11, 2026, a transaction equal to 3% of the stake he held before the filing. The sale came as the company's stock was rising.
Why it matters — Insider selling by a top executive can signal to DBX watchers that a company insider is reducing their stake, even amid a rising stock price.
The 7 Wall Street analysts covering Dropbox, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $30, with estimates ranging from $23 to $42. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 7 analysts covering Dropbox, Inc., 1 rate it a Buy, 3 a Hold and 3 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Dropbox, Inc. 83 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 1 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 1 Oct 2026, Dropbox, Inc. ranks 83 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (92 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 7 analysts implies -11.5% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Dropbox, Inc. 83 out of 100 as at 1 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Dropbox, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for DBX are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $23 to $42 over the next 12 months.
Dropbox, Inc. returned +13.6% over the 12 months to 2 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Dropbox Inc. Class A Common Stock represents ownership in Dropbox, a cloud-based software company that provides file storage, synchronization, sharing, and content collaboration tools.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 24 Sept 2026): "Why Dropbox (DBX) Dipped More Than Broader Market Today". Dropbox (DBX) shares closed at $32.66 in the latest trading day, reflecting a 4.56% decline compared to the prior close and underperforming the broader market.
Dropbox Inc. Class A Common Stock represents ownership in Dropbox, a cloud-based software company that provides file storage, synchronization, sharing, and content collaboration tools. The company serves individuals, teams, and organizations that need secure access to digital files and streamlined workflows across devices. Its platform includes products for storing and organizing documents, managing shared workspaces, and supporting collaborative work in distributed environments. Dropbox also offers solutions aimed at simplifying content management for small and midsize businesses, with services designed to integrate into everyday productivity routines. As a software business focused on cloud collaboration, Dropbox plays a role in the broader information technology market by helping users create, access, and manage digital content more efficiently.
CEO Mr. Andrew W. Houston · 2,113 employees · United States · https://www.dropbox.com
