MSFTTechnology · Software - InfrastructureThe 56 Wall Street analysts covering Microsoft Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $595 — +11.5% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 64 of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026 — in the upper half.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Microsoft Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Revisions (90): Analysts have, on balance, been raising their forecasts.
Accruals (31): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Size (0): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
As of 13 October 2026 our factor model ranks Microsoft 65 of 100 across the US stocks we track, placing it 50th of 163 software-infrastructure names. Quality is the strongest reading at 89, with analyst estimate revisions just below it at 89 as consensus estimates have been raised over the past 90 days. Value sits at 42 and the accruals check at 31, while its size ranks it at the bottom of the market-cap factor as one of the largest companies we track.
The Street is nearly unanimous while the model sits only modestly above the middle. Of 56 analysts, 53 rate the stock buy or strong buy, with an average target of $589.60 against a last close of $543.45 on 13 October 2026. The stock gained 39% in three months to a record close of $543.45, yet over twelve months it returned 6.6%, behind the S&P 500's 18.6%.
The weak Value reading at 42 trails high multiples, with the shares at 30 times trailing earnings and 21 times EV/EBITDA. The accruals-and-investment check at 31 reflects a balance sheet that is expanding quickly, and its capital-allocation sub-reading sits near the bottom at 20. October 2026 reports on Microsoft's new Maia 300 AI chip and questions around its OpenAI exposure are threads that would shift the reading if they change the revenue mix.
As of 14 Oct 2026The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MSFT, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +11.5% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 12 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | $512 → $600 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | $528 → $635 |
| 5 Oct 2026 | Scotiabank | Maintains | Sector Outperform | $510 → $615 |
| 1 Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $700 → $725 |
| 30 Sept 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Overweight | $550 → $610 |
| 23 Sept 2026 | Stifel | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 23 Sept 2026 | Stifel | Upgrade | Buy | $530 → $575 |
| 22 Sept 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 22 Sept 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | $515 → $570 |
| 21 Sept 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 21 Sept 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Overweight | $522 → $608 |
| 15 Sept 2026 | Citizens | Reiterates | Market Outperform | $550 |
| 15 Sept 2026 | Citizens | Reiterates | Market Outperform | — |
| 4 Sept 2026 | Stifel | Maintains | Hold | $450 → $530 |
| 4 Sept 2026 | Stifel | Maintains | Hold | — |
| 1 Sept 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 1 Sept 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Buy | $500 → $600 |
| 12 Aug 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $650 → $700 |
| 12 Aug 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Tigress Financial | Maintains | Buy | $680 → $690 |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. MSFT appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 14 Oct 2026, Microsoft Corp. returned +4.8% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 25% of US stocks
Cheaper than 12% of US stocks
Cheaper than 10% of US stocks
Cheaper than 14% of US stocks
Higher than 66% of US stocks
Higher than 66% of US stocks
Higher than 80% of US stocks
Higher than 94% of US stocks
Higher than 94% of US stocks
Higher than 89% of US stocks
Higher than 96% of US stocks
Higher than 68% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Microsoft Corp. has a market value of $4.0T and an enterprise value of $4.1T.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $331.8B. The latest quarter grew 17.7% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $133.7B, a 40.3% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $17.96.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $67.0B.
Microsoft Corp. spent $22.3B on share buybacks and $26.4B on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 30.3×; forward P/E: 23.0× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.72%, paying out 20% of earnings.
Microsoft Corp. employs 223,000 people — $1.5M of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
| Company | Market cap | TKN rank |
|---|---|---|
| MSFTMicrosoft Corp. | $4.0T | 64 |
| PLTRPalantir Technologies, Inc. | $480.7B | 69 |
| ORCLOracle Corp. | $376.0B | 38 |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc. | $306.0B | 50 |
| CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $253.8B | 61 |
| AAPLApple, Inc.* | $5.0T | 86 |
| NVDANVIDIA Corp.* | $5.4T | 76 |
* Nearest Technology names by size — few software - infrastructure companies of this scale trade in the US universe.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Microsoft Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
In Q3 2026, the Polen Focus Growth Portfolio returned 4.46% net of fees, compared with 0.92% for its index. Microsoft was among the portfolio’s top relative contributors.
Why it matters — Microsoft’s contribution helped the portfolio outperform its index during the quarter.
Microsoft shares have rebounded in recent months, partly following a strong quarterly update described in the headline as the company’s best quarter in 28 years. The excerpt says Microsoft still has significant growth avenues ahead.
Why it matters — MSFT watchers may note the recent share rebound, strong quarterly update, and continuing growth opportunities.
State Street Investment Management launched four sector ETFs on Wednesday that are designed to give each sector’s largest companies their full weight. The excerpt says XLKM aims to assign Nvidia a 20.93% weight, versus 15.41% in its Select Sector counterpart, XLK.
Why it matters — The excerpt describes a change in sector ETF weighting and provides no specific information about Microsoft’s weight or impact.
Microsoft unveiled its Maia 300 AI architecture on Monday. The company says it can process 40% more tokens per megawatt than a GPU.
Why it matters — The announcement highlights Microsoft's development of AI hardware and its stated efficiency relative to GPUs.
Schwab Network’s Don Kaufman cited September CPI and weak market breadth while presenting bearish example options trades in Kohl’s, Shopify, and Microsoft, anticipating pullbacks in all three stocks.
Why it matters — The segment presents a bearish view on Microsoft and anticipates a possible pullback in its shares.
The 56 Wall Street analysts covering Microsoft Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $595, with estimates ranging from $440 to $870. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 56 analysts covering Microsoft Corp., 53 rate it a Buy, 3 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Microsoft Corp. 64 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 14 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 14 Oct 2026, Microsoft Corp. ranks 64 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Revisions (90 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 56 analysts implies +11.5% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Microsoft Corp. 64 out of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Microsoft Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MSFT are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $440 to $870 over the next 12 months.
Microsoft Corp. returned +4.8% over the 12 months to 14 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Microsoft builds and sells software across productivity applications, operating systems, collaboration tools and cloud computing platforms, and adds security, developer services, devices and gaming. It earned $331.8 billion in revenue over the twelve months to June 2026 and $133.7 billion in net income, led by CEO Satya Nadella.
The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 15 Oct 2026): "Polen Focus Growth Portfolio Q3 2026 Portfolio Update". In Q3 2026, the Polen Focus Growth Portfolio returned 4.46% net of fees, compared with 0.92% for its index. Microsoft was among the portfolio’s top relative contributors.
Microsoft builds and sells software across productivity applications, operating systems, collaboration tools and cloud computing platforms, and adds security, developer services, devices and gaming. It earned $331.8 billion in revenue over the twelve months to June 2026 and $133.7 billion in net income, led by CEO Satya Nadella. Its customers span consumers, businesses, schools and governments.
CEO Mr. Satya Nadella · 223,000 employees · United States · https://www.microsoft.com
