MSFTTechnology · Software - InfrastructureThe 56 Wall Street analysts covering Microsoft Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $550 — +11.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 64 of 100 as at 13 Aug 2026 — in the upper half.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Microsoft Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Revisions (91): Analysts have, on balance, been raising their forecasts.
Accruals (31): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Size (0): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
As of 10 August 2026, our factor model ranks Microsoft 63.7 of 100 across the US stocks we track. The rank rests on Quality (89.4), Estimate Revisions (91.3) and Low Volatility (77.7), which all read strong, while Value (44.7) and Investment and Accruals (31.7) read weak. A market-cap factor sits near zero because Microsoft is one of the largest companies we follow.
The Street is more bullish than the rank. As of 10 August 2026 the last close was $506.06 and the consensus median price target is $550, with 14 of 56 analysts rating it strong buy and 39 rating it buy. Yet the model's Value reading is weak because the shares cost a lot relative to the profits and assets behind them, and over the twelve months to 10 August 2026 the stock fell 2.3% while the S&P 500 rose 22.7%.
Investment and Accruals (31.7) is the model's weakest operating factor, with a capital-allocation sub-score of 20 of 100; a weak reading there means a large share of reported profit has not yet arrived as cash or the balance sheet is expanding quickly. Microsoft has been spending heavily to build out AI capacity, and the recent analyst target raises and the news around its next AI chip both point at that buildout. The factor is the model's check on whether that reported profit is backed by cash.
As of 11 Aug 2026The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MSFT, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +11.0% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 7 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $650 → $700 |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Tigress Financial | Maintains | Buy | $680 → $690 |
| 30 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | $545 → $512 |
| 30 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 30 July 2026 | Bernstein | Maintains | Outperform | $646 → $647 |
| 30 July 2026 | Bernstein | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 30 July 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 30 July 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Overweight | $502 → $522 |
| 30 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $570 → $600 |
| 30 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 30 July 2026 | Citizens | Reiterates | Market Outperform | $550 |
| 30 July 2026 | Citizens | Reiterates | Market Outperform | — |
| 30 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 30 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | $550 |
| 30 July 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 30 July 2026 | Evercore ISI Group | Maintains | Outperform | $525 → $528 |
| 30 July 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Overweight | $540 → $550 |
| 30 July 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 30 July 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterates | Outperform | $640 |
| 30 July 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterates | Outperform | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. MSFT appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 29% of US stocks
Cheaper than 14% of US stocks
Cheaper than 13% of US stocks
Cheaper than 17% of US stocks
Higher than 67% of US stocks
Higher than 67% of US stocks
Higher than 80% of US stocks
Higher than 94% of US stocks
Higher than 94% of US stocks
Higher than 89% of US stocks
Higher than 97% of US stocks
Higher than 16% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
| Company | Market cap | TKN rank |
|---|---|---|
| MSFTMicrosoft Corp. | $3.7T | 64 |
| ORCLOracle Corp. | $450.0B | 37 |
| PLTRPalantir Technologies, Inc. | $428.1B | 66 |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc. | $323.1B | 53 |
| CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $229.6B | 59 |
| AAPLApple, Inc.* | $4.5T | 83 |
| NVDANVIDIA Corp.* | $5.5T | 76 |
* Nearest Technology names by size — few software - infrastructure companies of this scale trade in the US universe.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Microsoft Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed its latest portfolio changes on Friday, including exiting its Alphabet position and increasing its investments in Microsoft and Meta, while also re-entering Netflix.
Why it matters — A prominent hedge fund increasing its stake in Microsoft signals growing institutional interest in the company, which Microsoft watchers would find notable.
Seeking Alpha published a weekly summary of dividend activity for Dividend Champions, Contenders, and Challengers, including companies that changed their dividends and those with upcoming ex-dividend dates.
Why it matters — Microsoft watchers may use this summary to track dividend trends among peer companies and gauge general market sentiment around dividend reliability.
Microsoft reported a decisive Q4 and FY2026, accelerating revenue growth to 18% and expanding Azure past $100 billion with 41% growth. The company's commercial backlog grew to $678 billion, equating to $2.70 in future revenue booked per $1 of capital expenditure, which the article cites as proof of AI monetization.
Why it matters — MSFT watchers would care because the results validate the company's AI monetization by showing strong Azure growth and a large booked-revenue backlog relative to its capital spending.
The Motley Fool compared Alphabet and Microsoft, noting that Alphabet's revenue and profits are growing faster while Microsoft's stock trades at a lower valuation. The article discusses which company may be the better tech investment.
Why it matters — For Microsoft watchers, this comparison highlights how the company's growth pace and valuation stack up against a major competitor.
Analyst Dan Ives argued that hyperscalers and major technology companies including Microsoft and Nvidia are increasingly shaping the AI investment cycle, with their heavy infrastructure spending beginning to translate into revenue growth and easing investor concerns about returns on large capital expenditures.
Why it matters — For Microsoft watchers, the analyst's view suggests the company's substantial AI infrastructure investment is starting to generate returns, helping address concerns about its capital spending.
The 56 Wall Street analysts covering Microsoft Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $550, with estimates ranging from $400 to $870. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 56 analysts covering Microsoft Corp., 53 rate it a Buy, 3 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Microsoft Corp. 64 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 13 Aug 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 13 Aug 2026, Microsoft Corp. ranks 64 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Revisions (91 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 56 analysts implies +11.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Microsoft Corp. 64 out of 100 as at 13 Aug 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Microsoft Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MSFT are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $400 to $870 over the next 12 months.
Microsoft Corp. returned -4.5% over the 12 months to 14 Aug 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Microsoft sells enterprise software, cloud and AI infrastructure, and consumer hardware and gaming, organised around three segments: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. Its Intelligent Cloud arm is built on Azure, the cloud and AI platform that anchors its growth.
The most recent item we track (Benzinga, 14 Aug 2026): "Bill Ackman Exits Alphabet, Raises Bets on Microsoft & Meta". Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed its latest portfolio changes on Friday, including exiting its Alphabet position and increasing its investments in Microsoft and Meta, while also re-entering Netflix.
Microsoft sells enterprise software, cloud and AI infrastructure, and consumer hardware and gaming, organised around three segments: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. Its Intelligent Cloud arm is built on Azure, the cloud and AI platform that anchors its growth. The company reported $331.8 billion in trailing-twelve-month revenue and employs about 223,000 people.
CEO Mr. Satya Nadella · 223,000 employees · United States · https://www.microsoft.com