SPSCTechnology · Software - ApplicationThe 12 Wall Street analysts covering SPS Commerce, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $70 — -15.3% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 88 of 100 as at 23 Sept 2026 — inside the top quartile. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores SPS Commerce, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Accruals (92): Reported profit is backed by cash, and the company is not expanding recklessly.
Momentum (33): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Size (30): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on SPSC, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −15.3% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 5 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | $75 → $100 |
| 31 July 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 31 July 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | $60 → $70 |
| 31 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Underweight | $57 → $59 |
| 31 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Underweight | — |
| 31 July 2026 | Stifel | Maintains | Hold | $60 → $70 |
| 31 July 2026 | Stifel | Maintains | Hold | — |
| 21 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $76 → $82 |
| 21 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 21 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Downgrade | Underweight | — |
| 21 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Downgrade | Underweight | $70 → $57 |
| 1 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 1 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | $55 |
| 4 May 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 1 May 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 1 May 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 1 May 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 16 Apr 2026 | Rothschild & Co | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 17 Feb 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 13 Feb 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. SPSC appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 24 Sept 2026, SPS Commerce, Inc. returned −23.1% against +17.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 19% of US stocks
Cheaper than 32% of US stocks
Cheaper than 31% of US stocks
Cheaper than 22% of US stocks
Higher than 40% of US stocks
Higher than 7% of US stocks
Higher than 83% of US stocks
Higher than 74% of US stocks
Higher than 70% of US stocks
Higher than 59% of US stocks
Higher than 84% of US stocks
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
SPS Commerce, Inc. has a market value of $2.9B and an enterprise value of $2.8B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $772.5M. The latest quarter grew 5.6% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $78.0M, a 10.1% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $2.07.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $198.7M.
SPS Commerce, Inc. spent $153.1M on share buybacks in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 39.1×; forward P/E: 15.3× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
SPS Commerce, Inc. employs 2,948 people — $262K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own SPS Commerce, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
According to Barron's, SPS Commerce has recovered almost all of its "SaaSpocalypse" losses and is poised to rally further. The article suggests the company's software manages retail supply chains and its stock could surge 30%.
Why it matters — SPSC watchers would care because the article indicates the company has recovered from recent sector losses and sees further upside ahead.
SPS Commerce announced a new wave of product innovation that combines agentic AI with its network intelligence, spanning fulfillment, onboarding, analytics, and supply chain visibility. The capabilities are designed to help brands and retailers shift from reactive to proactive supply chain operations.
Why it matters — The announcement signals SPS's continued investment in AI-powered product differentiation, which could strengthen its competitive position among supply chain customers.
SPS Commerce's share price rose 7.1% on above-average trading volume. However, the latest trend in earnings estimate revisions does not suggest further strength ahead.
Why it matters — SPSC watchers would care because the report contrasts the recent stock price surge with the earnings estimate revision trend, which points to limited momentum going forward.
Bloomberg reported that SPS Commerce is in advanced talks with a large private equity firm. The company had previously said in June that it was exploring a sale, and its stock rallied on Friday following the report.
Why it matters — A potential private equity acquisition could significantly change SPS Commerce's ownership and strategic direction, making the progress of the sale talks material to shareholders.
SPS Commerce, Inc. presented at Citi's 2026 Global TMT Conference, and a transcript of the presentation was published on Seeking Alpha. The item consists solely of the transcript of the company's conference presentation.
Why it matters — The transcript offers SPSC watchers direct insight into the company's messaging and commentary delivered at a major industry conference.
The 12 Wall Street analysts covering SPS Commerce, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $70, with estimates ranging from $59 to $103. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 12 analysts covering SPS Commerce, Inc., 3 rate it a Buy, 8 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks SPS Commerce, Inc. 88 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 23 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 23 Sept 2026, SPS Commerce, Inc. ranks 88 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Accruals (92 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 12 analysts implies -15.3% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks SPS Commerce, Inc. 88 out of 100 as at 23 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering SPS Commerce, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for SPSC are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $59 to $103 over the next 12 months.
SPS Commerce, Inc. returned -23.1% over the 12 months to 24 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
SPS Commerce, Inc. is a cloud-based supply chain management software company that helps retailers, suppliers, distributors, grocers, manufacturers, and logistics providers coordinate day-to-day commerce operations.
The most recent item we track (Barrons, 24 Sept 2026): "This Company's Software Manages Supply Chains for Retailers. Its Stock Can Surge 30%.". According to Barron's, SPS Commerce has recovered almost all of its "SaaSpocalypse" losses and is poised to rally further. The article suggests the company's software manages retail supply chains and its stock could surge 30%.
SPS Commerce, Inc. is a cloud-based supply chain management software company that helps retailers, suppliers, distributors, grocers, manufacturers, and logistics providers coordinate day-to-day commerce operations. SPS Commerce’s platform supports electronic data interchange, order fulfillment, item and inventory data sharing, sales analytics, and trading partner connectivity across omnichannel retail networks. Its solutions are designed to simplify collaboration between businesses by automating communication, improving visibility into orders and inventory, and supporting more efficient workflows across the supply chain. The company also offers additional tools for assortment management, sourcing, and other trading partner processes, serving organizations that need integrated commerce connections rather than disconnected point-to-point systems. SPS Commerce plays an important role in digital retail infrastructure by enabling businesses to exchange information and manage transactions more consistently across complex supply chain ecosystems.
CEO Mr. Chadwick Collins · 2,948 employees · United States · https://www.spscommerce.com
