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ULTAULTAConsumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

ULTA Stock Forecast: Ulta Beauty, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 7 Oct 2026
$545
−0.33% on the day

The 28 Wall Street analysts covering Ulta Beauty, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $635 — +16.4% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 58 of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$23.4B
Ticker Nerd rank
58 / 100
Median analyst target
$635
Analysts covering
28
Revenue$3.0B+8.9% y/y
Operating income$384.2M
Net income$282.0M
Free cash flow$38.4M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 31 July 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−0.1%
1M
−3.3%
YTD
−9.8%
1Y
−2.0%
From 52W high
−22.8%
From 52W low
+21.0%
$451
$707
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

ULTA stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Ulta Beauty, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 6 Oct 2026
58 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Quality
81
Revisions
72
Volatility
69
Issuance
65
Growth
60
Value
51
Momentum
46
Accruals
40
Size
9

Quality (81): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.

Accruals (40): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Size (9): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

ULTA stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ULTA, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$400$500$600$700$800Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26ULTAHigh $731Median $635Low $500

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says28 analysts
19 Buy9 Hold0 Sell
Low $500Median $635High $731

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +16.4% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 5 moved their price target up and 4 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
15 Sept 2026Wells FargoUpgradeEqual-Weight$450 → $525
14 Sept 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy$625
9 Sept 2026BMO CapitalInitiatesMarket Perform$580
28 Aug 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsBuy$685 → $650
28 Aug 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsBuy—
28 Aug 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
28 Aug 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight$647 → $645
28 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral—
28 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral$560 → $580
28 Aug 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy$585 → $625
28 Aug 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
28 Aug 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy$648 → $667
28 Aug 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy—
28 Aug 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
28 Aug 2026UBSMaintainsBuy$735 → $710
25 Aug 2026Deutsche BankMaintainsBuy$692 → $695
25 Aug 2026Deutsche BankMaintainsBuy—
9 June 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
9 June 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$700 → $600
4 June 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. ULTA appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

ULTA vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 7 Oct 2026, Ulta Beauty, Inc. returned −2.0% against +17.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

ULTA vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
8090100110120130Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26ULTAS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

ULTA analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+0.6%
Analysts raising
16
Analysts cutting
1
Fundamentals

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
19.9×

Cheaper than 38% of US stocks

Price / sales
1.8×

Cheaper than 54% of US stocks

Price / book
8.6×

Cheaper than 11% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
13.3×

Cheaper than 27% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
8.9%

Higher than 49% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
8.1%

Higher than 45% of US stocks

Gross margin
39.1%

Higher than 48% of US stocks

Operating margin
12.5%

Higher than 68% of US stocks

Net margin
9.3%

Higher than 68% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
46.1%

Higher than 92% of US stocks

Return on assets
14.8%

Higher than 97% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.0%

Higher than 1% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Ulta Beauty, Inc. has a market value of $23.4B and an enterprise value of $25.7B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 31 July 2026: $13.0B. The latest quarter grew 8.9% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $1.2B, a 9.3% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $27.44.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 31 July 2026: $1.1B, after $418.4M of capital spending.

  • Ulta Beauty, Inc. spent $1.2B on share buybacks in the twelve months to 31 July 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 42.8M.

  • Trailing P/E: 19.9×; forward P/E: 17.1× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.

  • Ulta Beauty, Inc. employs 21,382 people — $606K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 31 July 2026 · market figures as at 7 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

ULTA vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelSpecialty Retail
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.$23.4B
58
CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc.$23.0B
85
WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.$28.5B
72
BBYBest Buy Co., Inc.$17.7B
97
TSCOTractor Supply Co.$17.1B
22
GMEGameStop Corp.$12.5B
59
DKSDick's Sporting Goods, Inc.$12.0B
16

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Ulta Beauty, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest ULTA news & analysis

These 2 Retail and Wholesale Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Zacks Investment Research · 5 Oct 2026neutral

A Zacks Investment Research article discusses using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool to identify retail and wholesale stocks positioned to beat quarterly earnings estimates, highlighting two unnamed companies in the sector. The piece encourages investors to employ this screening tool to spot stocks likely to exceed earnings expectations.

Why it matters — ULTA watchers may find the Earnings ESP tool relevant for gauging earnings-surprise potential in the retail and wholesale sector.

Ulta Beauty Raises 2026 Outlook as E-Commerce Momentum Accelerates

Zacks Investment Research · 30 Sept 2026positive

Ulta Beauty raised its fiscal 2026 outlook following stronger-than-expected second-quarter results and accelerated e-commerce growth, which set a higher bar for second-half execution.

Why it matters — A raised outlook driven by e-commerce momentum signals improving sales trends that ULTA watchers would view as a positive development.

Is Ulta Beauty Worth Buying as Growth Meets a Midrange Valuation?

Zacks Investment Research · 30 Sept 2026neutral

Zacks Investment Research examines Ulta Beauty, noting it pairs stronger earnings growth and high capital returns with a midrange valuation, while subdued traffic and margin pressure keep execution in focus.

Why it matters — For ULTA watchers, the item highlights the balance between Ulta's growth and capital-return strengths and the near-term challenges of soft traffic and margin pressure that investors should monitor.

Ulta Beauty Rises 20.7% in 3 Months: Can Its Rally Keep Going Now?

Zacks Investment Research · 30 Sept 2026neutral

Ulta Beauty shares have risen 20.7% over the past three months, supported by stronger second-quarter results and raised guidance. However, the rally faces headwinds from flat store traffic, promotional activity, and margin pressures that could test further gains.

Why it matters — ULTA watchers will be monitoring whether the company's improved quarterly performance can continue despite ongoing challenges from flat traffic, promotions, and cost pressures.

Ulta Beauty: This Growth Story Could Go Far Beyond Store Count

Seeking Alpha · 30 Sept 2026positive

Seeking Alpha coverage of Ulta Beauty highlights a Buy rating and strong long-term growth prospects despite near-term consumer pressures, citing expansion driven by private label growth, wellness category entry, omnichannel and international development, robust financials with double-digit EPS growth, minimal debt, aggressive buybacks, and raised FY26 guidance.

Why it matters — The article underscores multiple growth levers beyond store count, along with strong financial health and raised guidance, which would be of interest to Ulta watchers evaluating the company's long-term outlook.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about ULTA stock

What is the ULTA stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 28 Wall Street analysts covering Ulta Beauty, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $635, with estimates ranging from $500 to $731. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is ULTA stock a buy right now?

Of the 28 analysts covering Ulta Beauty, Inc., 19 rate it a Buy, 9 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Ulta Beauty, Inc. 58 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 6 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank ULTA?

As at 6 Oct 2026, Ulta Beauty, Inc. ranks 58 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (81 of 100).

Will ULTA stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 28 analysts implies +16.4% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Ulta Beauty, Inc. 58 out of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the ULTA stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Ulta Beauty, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ULTA are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $500 to $731 over the next 12 months.

How has ULTA stock performed over the past year?

Ulta Beauty, Inc. returned -2.0% over the 12 months to 7 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Ulta Beauty, Inc. do?

Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a specialty beauty retailer that offers a broad assortment of cosmetics, fragrance, skin care, hair care, bath and body products, beauty tools, and wellness items, along with salon services.

What is the latest news on ULTA?

The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 5 Oct 2026): "These 2 Retail and Wholesale Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar". A Zacks Investment Research article discusses using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool to identify retail and wholesale stocks positioned to beat quarterly earnings estimates, highlighting two unnamed companies in the sector. The piece encourages investors to employ this screening tool to spot stocks likely to exceed earnings expectations.

Company

About Ulta Beauty, Inc.

Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a specialty beauty retailer that offers a broad assortment of cosmetics, fragrance, skin care, hair care, bath and body products, beauty tools, and wellness items, along with salon services. The company operates through a large network of stores and digital channels, creating an all-in-one shopping model for consumers seeking mass-market, prestige, and private-label beauty brands. Its business also includes professional salon offerings such as hair, brow, and skin services, which extend its role beyond product retail into personal care services. Ulta Beauty serves individual shoppers across the United States and selected international markets through subsidiaries, joint ventures, and franchise partnerships. Headquartered in Bolingbrook, Illinois, Ulta Beauty is a prominent participant in the beauty and personal care retail sector, known for combining product assortment, services, and convenience in a single format.

CEO Ms. Kecia L. Steelman · 21,382 employees · United States · https://www.ulta.com