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UPST Stock Forecast: Upstart Holdings, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 2 Sept 2026
$28
+2.88% on the day

The 15 Wall Street analysts covering Upstart Holdings, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $40 — +41.9% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 24 of 100 as at 1 Sept 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$2.7B
Ticker Nerd rank
24 / 100
Median analyst target
$40
Analysts covering
15
Revenue$364.7M+41.7% y/y
Net income$16.5M
Free cash flow−$142.9M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−7.5%
1M
+2.7%
YTD
−35.6%
1Y
−59.3%
From 52W high
−59.3%
From 52W low
+16.4%
$24
$69
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

UPST stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Upstart Holdings, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 1 Sept 2026
24 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Growth
82
Quality
81
Value
68
Revisions
36
Size
32
Volatility
19
Issuance
18
Accruals
13
Momentum
5

Growth (82): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.

Momentum (5): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

UPST stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on UPST, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$20$30$40$50$60$70Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26UPSTHigh $61Median $40Low $20

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says15 analysts
8 Buy6 Hold1 Sell
Low $20Median $40High $61

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +41.9% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 4 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
5 Aug 2026BTIGReiteratesBuy$43
5 Aug 2026NeedhamMaintainsBuy$40 → $42
5 Aug 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsOverweight$46 → $51
22 July 2026CitigroupMaintainsBuy—
22 July 2026CitigroupMaintainsBuy$80 → $61
9 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsNeutral—
9 July 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsNeutral$32 → $39
7 July 2026BTIGReiteratesBuy$43
7 July 2026BTIGReiteratesBuy—
7 July 2026NeedhamMaintainsBuy$37 → $40
7 July 2026NeedhamMaintainsBuy—
15 June 2026NeedhamReiteratesBuy—
6 May 2026BTIGReiteratesBuy—
6 May 2026NeedhamMaintainsBuy—
6 May 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsOverweight—
9 Apr 2026BTIGReiteratesBuy—
26 Mar 2026MizuhoMaintainsOutperform—
16 Mar 2026BTIGUpgradeBuy—
11 Mar 2026NeedhamReiteratesBuy—
4 Mar 2026NeedhamMaintainsBuy—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. UPST appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

UPST vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 2 Sept 2026, Upstart Holdings, Inc. returned −59.3% against +20.8% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

UPST vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
406080100120Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26UPSTS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

UPST analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−3.4%
Analysts raising
2
Analysts cutting
6
Fundamentals

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
52.7×

Cheaper than 13% of US stocks

Price / sales
2.1×

Cheaper than 50% of US stocks

Price / book
3.3×

Cheaper than 30% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
37.1×

Cheaper than 7% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
42.3%

Higher than 84% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
195.0%

Higher than 90% of US stocks

Gross margin
—
Operating margin
7.2%

Higher than 59% of US stocks

Net margin
4.7%

Higher than 59% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
7.9%

Higher than 59% of US stocks

Return on assets
2.0%

Higher than 58% of US stocks

Dividend yield
—

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Upstart Holdings, Inc. has a market value of $2.7B and an enterprise value of $4.3B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.2B. The latest quarter grew 42.3% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $60.3M, a 4.9% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $0.49.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$305.1M, after $16.1M of capital spending.

  • Shares outstanding: 97.3M.

  • Trailing P/E: 52.7×; forward P/E: 8.0× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Upstart Holdings, Inc. employs 1,405 people — $873K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 2 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

UPST vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelCredit Services
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.$2.7B
24
AGMFederal Agricultural Mortgage Corp.$2.3B
87
WUThe Western Union Co.$2.2B
62
ECPGEncore Capital Group, Inc.$2.1B
98
EZPWEZCORP, Inc.$2.0B
80
SEZLSezzle, Inc.$3.9B
90
BFHBread Financial Holdings, Inc.$4.1B
99

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Upstart Holdings, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest UPST news & analysis

Upstart's Breakout May Occur Sooner Than Expected - H2 2026 Macro Risks

Seeking Alpha · 1 Sept 2026positive

The item discusses Upstart's potential for a sooner-than-expected breakout, highlighting its AI-powered lending marketplace, fee-based revenues, growing third-party funding capacity, and expected margin expansion from FY2027 driven by unsecured loan growth and a projected Q4 '26 breakeven in the secured segment. It also notes the company's consolidation and compares its valuation multiples.

Why it matters — UPST watchers would care because the piece frames the company's growth outlook, funding capacity, and margin trajectory in a favourable light, potentially shaping sentiment around its prospects.

Upstart: Massive Short Squeeze Potential

Seeking Alpha · 31 Aug 2026positive

Upstart Holdings is scaling rapidly, driven by AI-powered loan origination and expanding transaction volumes. The company reported 50% year-over-year growth in loan originations in Q2, reaching 558,014 total loans, with improving channel conversion rates and strong credit demand for personal loans.

Why it matters — A UPST watcher would care because the strong origination growth and improving conversion rates signal robust operational momentum in the company's core lending platform.

Down 30% in 2026, Is Upstart an AI Stock to Buy Right Now?

The Motley Fool · 29 Aug 2026negative

The Motley Fool reports that Upstart, an AI lender, is down 30% in 2026 and is suggesting that the U.S. economy is decelerating. The article examines whether Upstart qualifies as an AI stock to buy given this context.

Why it matters — Upstart watchers would care because the AI lender's own signals point to an economic slowdown, which could affect its lending outlook and stock performance.

Upstart Co-founder and CEO to Participate in Fireside Chat at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference 2026

Business Wire · 25 Aug 2026neutral

Upstart's co-founder and CEO will participate in a fireside chat at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference 2026, as announced by the company.

Why it matters — A UPST watcher would care because the CEO's appearance at a major technology conference provides an opportunity for the company's leadership to discuss its business with investors and industry peers.

Is Upstart Stock a Buy After Falling 55% This Year? Here's What to Know as One Insider Disposes of Shares

The Motley Fool · 22 Aug 2026negative

An Upstart executive sold 18,945 shares across two trading sessions, totaling $566,000 in transaction value, which reduced their direct equity holdings by 6%. This comes amid reporting that Upstart stock has fallen 55% this year.

Why it matters — Investors tracking Upstart would care because insider share disposals can signal leadership's perspective on the stock's valuation, particularly after a steep year-to-date decline.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about UPST stock

What is the UPST stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 15 Wall Street analysts covering Upstart Holdings, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $40, with estimates ranging from $20 to $61. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is UPST stock a buy right now?

Of the 15 analysts covering Upstart Holdings, Inc., 8 rate it a Buy, 6 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Upstart Holdings, Inc. 24 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 1 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank UPST?

As at 1 Sept 2026, Upstart Holdings, Inc. ranks 24 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (82 of 100).

Will UPST stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 15 analysts implies +41.9% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Upstart Holdings, Inc. 24 out of 100 as at 1 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the UPST stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Upstart Holdings, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for UPST are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $20 to $61 over the next 12 months.

How has UPST stock performed over the past year?

Upstart Holdings, Inc. returned -59.3% over the 12 months to 2 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Upstart Holdings, Inc. do?

Upstart Holdings Inc. is a financial technology company that operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence lending platform.

What is the latest news on UPST?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 1 Sept 2026): "Upstart's Breakout May Occur Sooner Than Expected - H2 2026 Macro Risks". The item discusses Upstart's potential for a sooner-than-expected breakout, highlighting its AI-powered lending marketplace, fee-based revenues, growing third-party funding capacity, and expected margin expansion from FY2027 driven by unsecured loan growth and a projected Q4 '26 breakeven in the secured segment. It also notes the company's consolidation and compares its valuation multiples.

Company

About Upstart Holdings, Inc.

Upstart Holdings Inc. is a financial technology company that operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence lending platform. Its core business connects consumers seeking credit with bank and credit union partners, using AI models to help assess creditworthiness and support loan decisions. The platform spans personal lending, auto lending, and other credit products, including unsecured personal loans, small-dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, auto secured personal loans, and home equity lines of credit. Upstart Holdings Inc. serves as a technology-enabled marketplace for consumer credit, combining underwriting automation with lender distribution across multiple lending categories. Headquartered in San Mateo, California, and founded in 2012, the company plays a role in modern consumer lending by providing data-driven tools that streamline credit access and loan origination for its financial institution partners.

CEO Mr. Paul Gu · 1,405 employees · United States · https://www.upstart.com