VITLConsumer Defensive · Farm ProductsThe 10 Wall Street analysts covering Vital Farms, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $14 — +43.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 11 of 100 as at 12 Sept 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Vital Farms, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Size (55): Smaller than most of the companies we track.
Momentum (2): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on VITL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +43.7% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 2 moved their price target up and 4 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 7 Aug 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Neutral | $16 → $14 |
| 7 Aug 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | $13 → $14 |
| 7 Aug 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Hold | $10 → $11 |
| 11 May 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 11 May 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | $20 → $13 |
| 8 May 2026 | Stifel | Downgrade | Hold | $34 → $10 |
| 8 May 2026 | Stifel | Downgrade | Hold | — |
| 8 May 2026 | William Blair | Downgrade | Market Perform | — |
| 8 May 2026 | William Blair | Downgrade | Market Perform | — |
| 4 May 2026 | DA Davidson | Downgrade | Neutral | $47 → $16 |
| 4 May 2026 | DA Davidson | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 23 Apr 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Stifel | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 8 Apr 2026 | TD Cowen | Downgrade | Hold | — |
| 2 Apr 2026 | Craig-Hallum | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 27 Mar 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 27 Mar 2026 | Telsey Advisory Group | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 2 Mar 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 2 Mar 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. VITL appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 11 Sept 2026, Vital Farms, Inc. returned −79.9% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 54% of US stocks
Cheaper than 81% of US stocks
Cheaper than 64% of US stocks
Cheaper than 8% of US stocks
Higher than 16% of US stocks
Higher than 26% of US stocks
Higher than 7% of US stocks
Higher than 21% of US stocks
Higher than 47% of US stocks
Higher than 44% of US stocks
Higher than 44% of US stocks
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Vital Farms, Inc. has a market value of $418.2M and an enterprise value of $505.2M.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $765.7M. The latest quarter shrank 10.1% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $156K, a 0.0% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−0.04.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$126.1M.
Trailing P/E: 11.7×; forward P/E: 37.2× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Vital Farms, Inc. employs 739 people — $1.0M of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Vital Farms, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Vital Farms (VITL) closed the recent trading day at $9.89, a -1.88% decline from the previous trading day. The drop was larger than the general market's decline.
Why it matters — VITL watchers would note that the stock fell more sharply than the broader market in the latest session.
Vital Farms reported a challenging Q2 with revenue down 10% year-over-year, gross margin falling to 6.6%, and significant cash burn, though it beat revenue expectations and reaffirmed full-year guidance. Management expects gross margin to recover to about 30% by Q4, with early signs of stabilization despite structural changes making a return to 35-40% margins unlikely.
Why it matters — A Vital Farms watcher would care because the company shows early signs of stabilization and reaffirmed guidance, but management's lowered margin outlook and continued cash burn raise questions about the pace and extent of recovery.
Vital reported Q2 2026 net revenue of $166 million, down 10.1% year-over-year, as the company faced an industry egg oversupply, pricing gaps with branded competitors, and elevated costs from managing excess supply.
Why it matters — The revenue decline and challenging industry conditions signal near-term headwinds for Vital Farms' financial performance and competitive positioning.
Vital Farms, Inc. held its Q2 2026 earnings call, and the transcript of that call was published on Seeking Alpha.
Why it matters — Earnings call transcripts provide direct insight into management's commentary on quarterly financial results and business outlook.
Vital Farms reported a Q2 loss of $0.47 per share, slightly wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a $0.46 loss, and compared with earnings of $0.36 per share a year ago. The headline notes the company beat revenue estimates.
Why it matters — The quarter marks a swing from year-ago profitability to a loss, with the per-share loss coming in slightly worse than analysts expected.
The 10 Wall Street analysts covering Vital Farms, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $14, with estimates ranging from $10 to $18. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 10 analysts covering Vital Farms, Inc., 4 rate it a Buy, 6 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Vital Farms, Inc. 11 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 12 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 12 Sept 2026, Vital Farms, Inc. ranks 11 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Size (55 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 10 analysts implies +43.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Vital Farms, Inc. 11 out of 100 as at 12 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Vital Farms, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for VITL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $10 to $18 over the next 12 months.
Vital Farms, Inc. returned -79.9% over the 12 months to 11 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Vital Farms, Inc. is a U.S.-based food company that packages, markets, and distributes pasture-raised shell eggs, butter, hard-boiled eggs, liquid whole eggs, and related refrigerated products.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 9 Sept 2026): "Vital Farms (VITL) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insights". Vital Farms (VITL) closed the recent trading day at $9.89, a -1.88% decline from the previous trading day. The drop was larger than the general market's decline.
Vital Farms, Inc. is a U.S.-based food company that packages, markets, and distributes pasture-raised shell eggs, butter, hard-boiled eggs, liquid whole eggs, and related refrigerated products. The company focuses on ethically produced foods sourced from a network of family farms, and its portfolio is sold under the Vital Farms brand and other trade names through retail grocery, mass-market, club, e-commerce, and foodservice channels. Vital Farms also serves commercial and non-commercial foodservice operators, giving it a broad presence across consumer and institutional markets. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, Vital Farms is known for its emphasis on animal welfare, sustainable farming practices, and transparent sourcing. Its role in the market is centered on premium branded eggs and dairy products, making it a notable participant in the U.S. consumer staples and packaged foods space.
CEO Mr. Russell Diez-Canseco · 739 employees · United States · https://vitalfarms.com
