XPFinancial Services · Capital MarketsThe 8 Wall Street analysts covering XP, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $24 — -17.4% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 78 of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026 — inside the top quartile. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores XP, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Growth (87): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.
Accruals (17): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Size (12): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on XP, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −17.4% from it.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sept 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $23 → $25 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Itau BBA | Upgrade | Outperform | — |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Itau BBA | Upgrade | Outperform | $22 |
| 3 June 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $28 → $25 |
| 3 June 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 2 Apr 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 20 Jan 2026 | Jefferies | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 16 Dec 2025 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 16 Oct 2025 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 24 Sept 2025 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 10 June 2025 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 4 June 2025 | Goldman Sachs | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 21 May 2025 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 21 May 2025 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 13 May 2025 | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | Overweight | — |
| 7 Apr 2025 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 27 Jan 2025 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 24 Jan 2025 | UBS | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 10 Dec 2024 | B of A Securities | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 26 Nov 2024 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. XP appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 7 Oct 2026, XP, Inc. returned +83.2% against +17.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 46% of US stocks
Cheaper than 74% of US stocks
Cheaper than 30% of US stocks
Cheaper than 52% of US stocks
Higher than 54% of US stocks
Higher than 42% of US stocks
Higher than 25% of US stocks
Higher than 88% of US stocks
Higher than 88% of US stocks
Higher than 83% of US stocks
Higher than 54% of US stocks
Higher than 84% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
XP, Inc. has a market value of $10.9B and an enterprise value of −$22.4B.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $12.8B.
XP, Inc. spent $2.0B on share buybacks in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 15.0×; forward P/E: 12.3× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 2.78%, paying out 20% of earnings.
XP, Inc. employs 6,834 people.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own XP, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
XP Inc. shares rose 30.9% in the prior session on higher-than-average trading volume. The excerpt notes that the latest trend in earnings estimate revisions may not support further near-term gains.
Why it matters — XP watchers may note both the sharp move and the caution that earnings estimate revisions could weigh on continued momentum.
Investors Business Daily published a list of five top-performing stocks to buy now or place on a watchlist, emphasising the difficulty of choosing the right stock without a solid strategy. The article highlights these five stocks as current buying or monitoring candidates.
Why it matters — XP watchers may care whether XP Inc. appears among the stocks featured in the list, as inclusion could signal positive recognition within the investing community.
Zacks reports that the mean of analysts' price targets for XP Inc. suggests 39.2% upside in the stock, while noting that this metric has not proven particularly reliable. Strong agreement among analysts in raising earnings estimates, however, does indicate upside for the company.
Why it matters — XP watchers would care because analyst price targets and earnings-estimate revisions are signals that could point to upside for the stock.
Zacks Investment Research published a comparison of XP Inc. and Blackstone Inc., both in the Financial - Miscellaneous Services sector, examining which stock is more attractive to value investors.
Why it matters — The article positions XP within a value-investing comparison against a major peer, which is relevant for investors tracking XP's relative valuation.
Zacks Investment Research published an article asking whether investors are undervaluing XP (XP), noting that its focus is on the Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions, while also tracking value, growth, and momentum trends.
Why it matters — XP watchers would care because the article evaluates whether the stock is undervalued based on earnings estimate and valuation trends.
The 8 Wall Street analysts covering XP, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $24, with estimates ranging from $21 to $28. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 8 analysts covering XP, Inc., 7 rate it a Buy, 1 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks XP, Inc. 78 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 6 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 6 Oct 2026, XP, Inc. ranks 78 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (87 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 8 analysts implies -17.4% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks XP, Inc. 78 out of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering XP, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for XP are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $21 to $28 over the next 12 months.
XP, Inc. returned +83.2% over the 12 months to 7 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
XP Inc. Class A Common Stock represents ownership in XP Inc., a technology-driven financial services company focused on Brazil.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 6 Oct 2026): "XP Inc.A (XP) Soars 30.9%: Is Further Upside Left in the Stock?". XP Inc. shares rose 30.9% in the prior session on higher-than-average trading volume. The excerpt notes that the latest trend in earnings estimate revisions may not support further near-term gains.
XP Inc. Class A Common Stock represents ownership in XP Inc., a technology-driven financial services company focused on Brazil. XP Inc. provides an open investment platform that gives clients access to brokerage services, fixed income products, mutual funds, hedge funds, private equity, derivatives, structured products, insurance, pension offerings, credit cards, loans, and wealth management services. The company also serves retail, high-net-worth, corporate, and institutional clients through financial advisory services and capital markets solutions. Its business is centered on broad financial distribution and product access, making it a significant participant in Brazil’s investment and financial services market. XP Inc. is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil, and operates as a diversified platform across investing, advisory, lending, and insurance-related services.
CEO Mr. Thiago Maffra · 6,834 employees · Cayman Islands · https://www.xpinc.com
