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AAP Stock Forecast: Advance Auto Parts, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 8 Sept 2026
$43
−3.67% on the day

The 25 Wall Street analysts covering Advance Auto Parts, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $50 — +17.5% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 61 of 100 as at 7 Sept 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$2.7B
Ticker Nerd rank
61 / 100
Median analyst target
$50
Analysts covering
25
Revenue$2.0B−1.8% y/y
Operating income$111.0M
Net income$55.0M
Free cash flow$195.0M
Quarterly, 7 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+0.9%
1M
−26.4%
YTD
+9.9%
1Y
−28.8%
From 52W high
−32.4%
From 52W low
+11.5%
$38
$63
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

AAP stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Advance Auto Parts, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 7 Sept 2026
61 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Growth
92
Value
81
Quality
61
Revisions
57
Accruals
51
Volatility
47
Momentum
45
Issuance
34
Size
32

Growth (92): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.

Issuance (34): The company has been issuing shares or taking on financing, diluting existing holders.

Size (32): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

AAP stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on AAP, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$30$40$50$60$70Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26AAPHigh $70Median $50Low $33

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says25 analysts
2 Buy20 Hold3 Sell
Low $33Median $50High $70

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +17.5% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 2 moved their price target up and 13 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
21 Aug 2026BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight$59 → $50
21 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral$57 → $45
21 Aug 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsNeutral$58 → $48
21 Aug 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsSell$54 → $40
21 Aug 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$65 → $55
21 Aug 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-Weight$65 → $52
21 Aug 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsSector Perform$67 → $52
21 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsHold$61 → $45
21 Aug 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainsHold$62 → $43
21 Aug 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral$65 → $47
21 Aug 2026Wells FargoMaintainsEqual-Weight$60 → $50
13 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral$60 → $57
13 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral—
13 Aug 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsSector Perform$65 → $67
13 Aug 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsSector Perform—
4 Aug 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line$70 → $65
4 Aug 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line—
26 May 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral—
26 May 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral$54 → $58
22 May 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsMarket Perform—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. AAP appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

AAP vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 8 Sept 2026, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. returned −28.8% against +19.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

AAP vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
60708090100110120Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26AAPS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

AAP analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+1.9%
Analysts raising
16
Analysts cutting
5
Fundamentals

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
23.9×

Cheaper than 31% of US stocks

Price / sales
0.3×

Cheaper than 89% of US stocks

Price / book
1.1×

Cheaper than 69% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
8.2×

Cheaper than 45% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−0.5%

Higher than 27% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
266.7%

Higher than 92% of US stocks

Gross margin
46.2%

Higher than 57% of US stocks

Operating margin
5.5%

Higher than 56% of US stocks

Net margin
1.0%

Higher than 50% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
4.9%

Higher than 53% of US stocks

Return on assets
2.1%

Higher than 59% of US stocks

Dividend yield
2.3%

Higher than 51% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Advance Auto Parts, Inc. has a market value of $2.7B and an enterprise value of $5.2B.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.78.

  • Shares outstanding: 60.3M.

  • Trailing P/E: 23.9×; forward P/E: 11.0× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 2.34%, paying out 56% of earnings.

  • Advance Auto Parts, Inc. employs 28,274 people.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 8 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

AAP vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelAuto Parts
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
AAPAdvance Auto Parts, Inc.$2.7B
61
PHINPHINIA, Inc.$2.6B
88
VCVisteon Corp.$2.7B
67
QSQuantumScape Corp.$3.3B
36
DANDana, Inc.$3.5B
75
VGNTVersigent Plc$3.6B
1
ATMUAtmus Filtration Technologies, Inc.$3.9B
65

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Advance Auto Parts, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest AAP news & analysis

Why Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is a Top Value Stock for the Long-Term

Zacks Investment Research · 8 Sept 2026positive

Zacks Investment Research highlights Advance Auto Parts as a top value stock for the long term, noting that its Style Scores tool identifies stocks based on investing style. The piece points to AAP's value characteristics as a reason for investors to take notice.

Why it matters — This item flags Advance Auto Parts as deserving attention among value-oriented investors, potentially influencing how market watchers perceive its long-term investment appeal.

Here's Why You Should Retain Advance Auto Stock in Your Portfolio

Zacks Investment Research · 2 Sept 2026positive

Zacks reports that Advance Auto Parts' selective expansion, stronger Main Street Pro sales, and margin gains support profitability, even as DIY demand remains weak and costs rise. The note suggests retaining the stock in a portfolio.

Why it matters — AAP watchers would care because the piece highlights business strengths—professional sales growth and margin improvement—that could cushion the impact of soft DIY demand and cost pressures on profitability.

Advance Auto Parts vs. Lockheed Martin: Which Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

The Motley Fool · 21 Aug 2026neutral

The Motley Fool compared Advance Auto Parts and Lockheed Martin as potential investments, noting that Advance Auto Parts is streamlining its business to focus on its core aftermarket parts model.

Why it matters — Investors following AAP would care about the company's strategic shift to streamline operations and refocus on its core aftermarket parts business.

Advance Auto Parts Posts Disappointing Q2 Comp on High Exposure to Lower-End Customers

Benzinga · 21 Aug 2026negative

Advance Auto Parts reported mixed second-quarter results, with a disappointing comparable sales figure attributed to its high exposure to lower-end customers. The company's quarterly performance was characterized as mixed by the source.

Why it matters — The disappointing comparable sales highlight how Advance Auto Parts' customer base exposure is affecting its performance, which is relevant to those tracking the company's results.

Advance Auto Parts Plunged, But Its Turnaround Is Still Working

MarketBeat · 21 Aug 2026positive

Advance Auto Parts (AAP) experienced an August price plunge driven by factors outside the company's control, while the elements it does control continue to show improvement in its turnaround effort. The article characterizes the plunge as presenting an opportunity given these ongoing internal improvements.

Why it matters — AAP watchers would care because the article suggests the company's underlying turnaround remains intact despite the recent share-price decline.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about AAP stock

What is the AAP stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 25 Wall Street analysts covering Advance Auto Parts, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $50, with estimates ranging from $33 to $70. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is AAP stock a buy right now?

Of the 25 analysts covering Advance Auto Parts, Inc., 2 rate it a Buy, 20 a Hold and 3 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Advance Auto Parts, Inc. 61 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 7 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank AAP?

As at 7 Sept 2026, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. ranks 61 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (92 of 100).

Will AAP stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 25 analysts implies +17.5% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Advance Auto Parts, Inc. 61 out of 100 as at 7 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the AAP stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Advance Auto Parts, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for AAP are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $33 to $70 over the next 12 months.

How has AAP stock performed over the past year?

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. returned -28.8% over the 12 months to 8 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Advance Auto Parts, Inc. do?

Advance Auto Parts Inc. is an automotive aftermarket parts provider serving professional installers, do-it-yourself customers, and independently owned operators across North America.

What is the latest news on AAP?

The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 8 Sept 2026): "Why Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is a Top Value Stock for the Long-Term". Zacks Investment Research highlights Advance Auto Parts as a top value stock for the long term, noting that its Style Scores tool identifies stocks based on investing style. The piece points to AAP's value characteristics as a reason for investors to take notice.

Company

About Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

Advance Auto Parts Inc. is an automotive aftermarket parts provider serving professional installers, do-it-yourself customers, and independently owned operators across North America. The company supplies replacement parts, batteries, maintenance items, tools, accessories, and related vehicle care products through a broad retail and distribution network. Its offerings support a wide range of domestic and imported cars, SUVs, vans, and trucks, with particular emphasis on components used in routine repair, maintenance, and collision-related service. Advance Auto Parts also serves the wholesale and professional repair markets through brands and channels associated with Carquest and Worldpac. Headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina, Advance Auto Parts Inc. plays a significant role in the North American auto parts market by connecting vehicle owners and service businesses with parts availability, technical support, and distribution infrastructure.

CEO Mr. Shane M. O'Kelly · 28,274 employees · United States · https://shop.advanceautoparts.com