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AAP Stock Forecast: Advance Auto Parts, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 2 Oct 2026
$39
−0.15% on the day

The 25 Wall Street analysts covering Advance Auto Parts, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $50 — +29.3% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 55 of 100 as at 2 Oct 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$2.3B
Ticker Nerd rank
55 / 100
Median analyst target
$50
Analysts covering
25
Revenue$2.0B−1.8% y/y
Operating income$111.0M
Net income$55.0M
Free cash flow$195.0M
Quarterly, 7 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−7.3%
1M
−9.6%
YTD
−0.1%
1Y
−36.5%
From 52W high
−38.3%
From 52W low
+1.3%
$38
$63
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

AAP stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Advance Auto Parts, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 2 Oct 2026
55 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Growth
91
Value
77
Quality
60
Revisions
56
Accruals
51
Volatility
40
Issuance
34
Momentum
33
Size
33

Growth (91): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.

Momentum (33): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.

Size (33): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

AAP stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on AAP, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$30$40$50$60$70Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26AAPHigh $70Median $50Low $33

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says25 analysts
2 Buy20 Hold3 Sell
Low $33Median $50High $70

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +29.3% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 2 moved their price target up and 13 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
21 Aug 2026BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight$59 → $50
21 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral$57 → $45
21 Aug 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsNeutral$58 → $48
21 Aug 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsSell$54 → $40
21 Aug 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$65 → $55
21 Aug 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-Weight$65 → $52
21 Aug 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsSector Perform$67 → $52
21 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsHold$61 → $45
21 Aug 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainsHold$62 → $43
21 Aug 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral$65 → $47
21 Aug 2026Wells FargoMaintainsEqual-Weight$60 → $50
13 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral$60 → $57
13 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral—
13 Aug 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsSector Perform$65 → $67
13 Aug 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsSector Perform—
4 Aug 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line$70 → $65
4 Aug 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line—
26 May 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral—
26 May 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral$54 → $58
22 May 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsMarket Perform—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. AAP appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

AAP vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 2 Oct 2026, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. returned −36.5% against +16.2% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

AAP vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
60708090100110120Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26AAPS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

AAP analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+1.9%
Analysts raising
16
Analysts cutting
5
Fundamentals

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
21.6×

Cheaper than 34% of US stocks

Price / sales
0.3×

Cheaper than 89% of US stocks

Price / book
1.0×

Cheaper than 71% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
7.7×

Cheaper than 46% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−0.5%

Higher than 27% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
266.7%

Higher than 92% of US stocks

Gross margin
46.2%

Higher than 57% of US stocks

Operating margin
5.5%

Higher than 56% of US stocks

Net margin
1.0%

Higher than 50% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
4.9%

Higher than 53% of US stocks

Return on assets
2.1%

Higher than 59% of US stocks

Dividend yield
2.6%

Higher than 54% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Advance Auto Parts, Inc. has a market value of $2.3B and an enterprise value of $4.8B.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.78.

  • Shares outstanding: 60.3M.

  • Trailing P/E: 21.6×; forward P/E: 9.9× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 2.59%, paying out 56% of earnings.

  • Advance Auto Parts, Inc. employs 28,274 people.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 3 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

AAP vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelAuto Parts
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
AAPAdvance Auto Parts, Inc.$2.3B
55
VCVisteon Corp.$2.4B
65
PHINPHINIA, Inc.$2.3B
84
QSQuantumScape Corp.$2.8B
34
DANDana, Inc.$3.0B
75
VGNTVersigent Plc$3.3B
1
ATMUAtmus Filtration Technologies, Inc.$3.7B
58

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Advance Auto Parts, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest AAP news & analysis

Here's Why Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is a Strong Value Stock

Zacks Investment Research · 29 Sept 2026positive

Zacks Investment Research highlighted Advance Auto Parts (AAP) as a strong value stock, noting that its Style Scores offer investors a way to identify top-rated stocks based on investing style. The report explains why investors should take advantage of this classification.

Why it matters — AAP watchers following the company would care because its strong value-stock designation could signal attractive valuation characteristics relative to the broader market.

AutoZone Climbs 6% as Profit Beat Offsets Revenue Miss; Advance Auto Parts Rises 6%, O'Reilly Automotive Gains 4%

24/7 Wall Street · 22 Sept 2026positive

AutoZone reported a fourth quarter that beat on profit but missed on sales, and the reaction rippled through auto parts retailers. Advance Auto Parts rose 6%, along with AutoZone's own 6% gain and a 4% increase for O'Reilly Automotive.

Why it matters — Because the market reaction to AutoZone's quarterly results spread across the auto parts retail sector, Advance Auto Parts shares moved higher as part of that industry-wide response.

Advance Auto Parts vs. Intuitive Machines: Which Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

The Motley Fool · 16 Sept 2026neutral

A Motley Fool article compares Advance Auto Parts with Intuitive Machines as potential investments for 2026. It notes that Advance Auto Parts remains focused on store efficiencies and its professional installer segment, while Intuitive Machines provides space infrastructure and manages government contracts.

Why it matters — The article highlights where Advance Auto Parts is directing its strategic focus, which is relevant to AAP watchers tracking the company's operational direction into 2026.

Zacks Industry Outlook O'Reilly and Advance Auto Parts

Zacks Investment Research · 16 Sept 2026neutral

Zacks Investment Research published an Industry Outlook article highlighting O'Reilly and Advance Auto Parts. The companies were named in this industry overview piece.

Why it matters — The article places Advance Auto Parts in a broader industry context that an investor watching the company would find relevant.

2 Auto Retail Parts Stocks Worth Watching as Aftermarket Demand Grows

Zacks Investment Research · 15 Sept 2026positive

Zacks Investment Research highlights auto parts retailers ORLY and AAP as positioned to benefit from aftermarket demand, supported by an aging vehicle fleet and resilient vehicle demand.

Why it matters — AAP watchers would note that the piece identifies the company as a potential beneficiary of growing aftermarket demand.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about AAP stock

What is the AAP stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 25 Wall Street analysts covering Advance Auto Parts, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $50, with estimates ranging from $33 to $70. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is AAP stock a buy right now?

Of the 25 analysts covering Advance Auto Parts, Inc., 2 rate it a Buy, 20 a Hold and 3 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Advance Auto Parts, Inc. 55 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 2 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank AAP?

As at 2 Oct 2026, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. ranks 55 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (91 of 100).

Will AAP stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 25 analysts implies +29.3% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Advance Auto Parts, Inc. 55 out of 100 as at 2 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the AAP stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Advance Auto Parts, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for AAP are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $33 to $70 over the next 12 months.

How has AAP stock performed over the past year?

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. returned -36.5% over the 12 months to 2 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Advance Auto Parts, Inc. do?

Advance Auto Parts Inc. is an automotive aftermarket parts provider serving professional installers, do-it-yourself customers, and independently owned operators across North America.

What is the latest news on AAP?

The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 29 Sept 2026): "Here's Why Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is a Strong Value Stock". Zacks Investment Research highlighted Advance Auto Parts (AAP) as a strong value stock, noting that its Style Scores offer investors a way to identify top-rated stocks based on investing style. The report explains why investors should take advantage of this classification.

Company

About Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

Advance Auto Parts Inc. is an automotive aftermarket parts provider serving professional installers, do-it-yourself customers, and independently owned operators across North America. The company supplies replacement parts, batteries, maintenance items, tools, accessories, and related vehicle care products through a broad retail and distribution network. Its offerings support a wide range of domestic and imported cars, SUVs, vans, and trucks, with particular emphasis on components used in routine repair, maintenance, and collision-related service. Advance Auto Parts also serves the wholesale and professional repair markets through brands and channels associated with Carquest and Worldpac. Headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina, Advance Auto Parts Inc. plays a significant role in the North American auto parts market by connecting vehicle owners and service businesses with parts availability, technical support, and distribution infrastructure.

CEO Mr. Shane M. O'Kelly · 28,274 employees · United States · https://shop.advanceautoparts.com