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ACGL Stock Forecast: Arch Capital Group Ltd. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 24 Aug 2026
$101
+1.77% on the day

The 20 Wall Street analysts covering Arch Capital Group Ltd. hold a median 12-month price target of $111 — +9.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 67 of 100 as at 22 Aug 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$33.9B
Ticker Nerd rank
67 / 100
Median analyst target
$111
Analysts covering
20
Revenue$4.5B−9.6% y/y
Net income$1.1B
Free cash flow$1.3B
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+3.4%
1M
−2.1%
YTD
+5.5%
1Y
+8.3%
From 52W high
−5.0%
From 52W low
+19.4%
$85
$106
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

ACGL stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Arch Capital Group Ltd. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 22 Aug 2026
67 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Volatility
94
Growth
78
Value
70
Issuance
69
Quality
69
Momentum
68
Revisions
60
Accruals
24
Size
7

Volatility (94): The share price has been relatively steady.

Accruals (24): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Size (7): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

ACGL stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ACGL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$80$90$100$110$120$130$140Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26ACGLHigh $134Median $111Low $95

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says20 analysts
10 Buy9 Hold1 Sell
Low $95Median $111High $134

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +9.7% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 9 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
11 Aug 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$116 → $118
3 Aug 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsNeutral$102 → $110
3 Aug 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsNeutral—
30 July 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsOutperform—
30 July 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsOutperform$115 → $120
30 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight$114 → $117
30 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
20 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$110 → $116
20 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
9 July 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsNeutral—
9 July 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsNeutral$100 → $102
9 July 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral—
9 July 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral$101 → $104
9 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
9 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight$110 → $114
8 July 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
8 July 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform$102 → $99
8 July 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
8 July 2026UBSMaintainsBuy$114 → $120
6 July 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. ACGL appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

ACGL vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 24 Aug 2026, Arch Capital Group Ltd. returned +8.3% against +19.6% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

ACGL vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
9095100105110115120125Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26ACGLS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

ACGL analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+1.0%
Analysts raising
13
Analysts cutting
5
Fundamentals

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
7.8×

Cheaper than 62% of US stocks

Price / sales
1.8×

Cheaper than 57% of US stocks

Price / book
1.5×

Cheaper than 58% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
6.2×

Cheaper than 51% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−10.5%

Higher than 15% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−14.6%

Higher than 23% of US stocks

Gross margin
—
Operating margin
26.6%

Higher than 85% of US stocks

Net margin
24.4%

Higher than 85% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
19.9%

Higher than 81% of US stocks

Return on assets
4.1%

Higher than 72% of US stocks

Dividend yield
—

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Arch Capital Group Ltd. has a market value of $33.9B and an enterprise value of $34.4B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $18.6B. The latest quarter shrank 10.5% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $4.7B, a 25.2% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $12.79.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $6.1B.

  • Arch Capital Group Ltd. spent $3.5B on share buybacks and $45.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 341.0M.

  • Trailing P/E: 7.8×; forward P/E: 10.2× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Arch Capital Group Ltd. employs 8,000 people — $2.3M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 24 Aug 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

ACGL vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelInsurance - Diversified
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd.$33.9B
67
HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.$37.3B
68
AIGAmerican International Group, Inc.$39.8B
57
PLGOPelagos Insurance Capital Ltd.$2.1B
80
MTBM&T Bank Corp.*$34.8B
70
NTRSNorthern Trust Corp.*$34.8B
93
HBANHuntington Bancshares, Inc.*$34.6B
8

* Nearest Financial Services names by size — few insurance - diversified companies of this scale trade in the US universe.

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Arch Capital Group Ltd. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest ACGL news & analysis

Arch Capital Lags Industry, Trades at a Premium: Time to Hold or Exit?

Zacks Investment Research · 18 Aug 2026neutral

Zacks reports that Arch Capital (ACGL) lags the broader industry while trading at a premium valuation. The company's strong underwriting, investment income and capital generation support growth, though softer property pricing and catastrophe risks weigh on its outlook.

Why it matters — ACGL watchers would care because the report highlights a balance between the insurer's solid fundamentals and the risks and valuation concerns that could influence its performance.

BRK.B Q2 Earnings & Revenues Rise Year Over Year on Diversified Growth

Zacks Investment Research · 10 Aug 2026neutral

Berkshire Hathaway reported a 16.3% increase in Q2 operating earnings, driven by growth across its BNSF, energy, manufacturing, service and retailing businesses.

Why it matters — As a peer in the diversified insurance and investment space, Berkshire Hathaway's strong operating results may signal favorable conditions for the broader sector in which ACGL competes.

33 stocks to bet on foreign markets continuing to beat the S&P 500

Market Watch · 6 Aug 2026neutral

MarketWatch reports that many foreign markets are outperforming the U.S. in year-to-date performance, and it identifies 33 stocks to bet on that foreign-market trend continuing.

Why it matters — Arch Capital has significant international operations, so trends in foreign markets could be relevant to its business outlook.

Madison Mid Cap Fund Q2 2026 Portfolio Activity

Seeking Alpha · 31 July 2026negative

The Madison Mid Cap Fund reported that Arch Capital was among the bottom five detractors for its portfolio in Q2 2026. The fund also noted it purchased shares in Verisk Analytics, a data provider to property and casualty insurers.

Why it matters — ACGL shareholders may note that a major mid-cap fund identified the stock as a laggard in its portfolio during the quarter, while also adding a position in a key industry data provider.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Seeking Alpha · 29 July 2026neutral

Arch Capital Group Ltd. released its Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, covering the company's financial results and management commentary for the quarter.

Why it matters — The earnings call transcript provides ACGL watchers with detailed insight into the company's quarterly performance and strategic outlook directly from management.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about ACGL stock

What is the ACGL stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 20 Wall Street analysts covering Arch Capital Group Ltd. have a median 12-month price target of $111, with estimates ranging from $95 to $134. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is ACGL stock a buy right now?

Of the 20 analysts covering Arch Capital Group Ltd., 10 rate it a Buy, 9 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Arch Capital Group Ltd. 67 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 22 Aug 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank ACGL?

As at 22 Aug 2026, Arch Capital Group Ltd. ranks 67 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (94 of 100).

Will ACGL stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 20 analysts implies +9.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Arch Capital Group Ltd. 67 out of 100 as at 22 Aug 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the ACGL stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Arch Capital Group Ltd. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ACGL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $95 to $134 over the next 12 months.

How has ACGL stock performed over the past year?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. returned +8.3% over the 12 months to 24 Aug 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Arch Capital Group Ltd. do?

Arch Capital Group Ltd is a global specialty insurance and reinsurance company headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda. The firm focuses on providing a broad range of risk solutions across three core underwriting segments: insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage.

What is the latest news on ACGL?

The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 18 Aug 2026): "Arch Capital Lags Industry, Trades at a Premium: Time to Hold or Exit?". Zacks reports that Arch Capital (ACGL) lags the broader industry while trading at a premium valuation. The company's strong underwriting, investment income and capital generation support growth, though softer property pricing and catastrophe risks weigh on its outlook.

Company

About Arch Capital Group Ltd.

Arch Capital Group Ltd is a global specialty insurance and reinsurance company headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda. The firm focuses on providing a broad range of risk solutions across three core underwriting segments: insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage. In its insurance segment, Arch Capital Group Ltd offers property and casualty coverage and tailored specialty risk solutions for commercial, institutional, and other professional clients across multiple industries. The reinsurance segment supports insurers worldwide with programs spanning property catastrophe, general property, casualty, marine, aviation, credit and surety, agriculture, accident, life and health, and political risk. Through its mortgage segment, the company delivers mortgage insurance and related risk management and financing products via platforms in the United States, Europe, Bermuda and Hong Kong. Operating across North America, Europe, Asia and Australia, Arch Capital Group Ltd plays a significant role in diversified insurance markets by concentrating on complex and specialty lines that require sophisticated underwriting and data-driven risk evaluation. Founded in 1995, it continues to serve a global client base from its Bermuda headquarters.

CEO Mr. Nicolas Alain Emmanuel Papadopoulo · 8,000 employees · Bermuda · https://www.archgroup.com