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ACGLACGLFinancial Services · Insurance - Diversified

ACGL Stock Forecast: Arch Capital Group Ltd. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 18 Sept 2026
$97
+0.20% on the day

The 20 Wall Street analysts covering Arch Capital Group Ltd. hold a median 12-month price target of $111 — +14.6% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 66 of 100 as at 19 Sept 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$33.1B
Ticker Nerd rank
66 / 100
Median analyst target
$111
Analysts covering
20
Revenue$4.5B−9.6% y/y
Net income$1.1B
Free cash flow$1.3B
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+0.8%
1M
−2.0%
YTD
+1.0%
1Y
+9.9%
From 52W high
−9.0%
From 52W low
+14.4%
$85
$106
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

ACGL stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Arch Capital Group Ltd. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 19 Sept 2026
66 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Volatility
95
Growth
78
Value
74
Issuance
69
Quality
69
Momentum
66
Revisions
58
Accruals
24
Size
7

Volatility (95): The share price has been relatively steady.

Accruals (24): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Size (7): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

ACGL stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ACGL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$80$90$100$110$120$130$140Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26ACGLHigh $134Median $111Low $95

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says20 analysts
10 Buy9 Hold1 Sell
Low $95Median $111High $134

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +14.6% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 6 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
16 Sept 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral$104 → $100
11 Aug 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
11 Aug 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$116 → $118
11 Aug 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform$99
11 Aug 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
5 Aug 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsMarket Perform$95 → $102
5 Aug 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsMarket Perform—
3 Aug 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsNeutral$102 → $110
3 Aug 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsNeutral—
3 Aug 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight—
30 July 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsOutperform—
30 July 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsOutperform$115 → $120
30 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight$114 → $117
30 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
29 July 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsBuy—
29 July 2026Roth CapitalMaintainsBuy—
20 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$110 → $116
20 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
13 July 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral—
9 July 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsNeutral—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. ACGL appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

ACGL vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 18 Sept 2026, Arch Capital Group Ltd. returned +9.9% against +16.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

ACGL vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
100105110115120Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26ACGLS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

ACGL analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+1.1%
Analysts raising
15
Analysts cutting
2
Fundamentals

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
7.6×

Cheaper than 62% of US stocks

Price / sales
1.7×

Cheaper than 56% of US stocks

Price / book
1.4×

Cheaper than 57% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
6.0×

Cheaper than 51% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−10.5%

Higher than 15% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−14.6%

Higher than 23% of US stocks

Gross margin
—
Operating margin
26.6%

Higher than 85% of US stocks

Net margin
24.4%

Higher than 85% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
19.9%

Higher than 81% of US stocks

Return on assets
4.1%

Higher than 72% of US stocks

Dividend yield
—

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Arch Capital Group Ltd. has a market value of $33.1B and an enterprise value of $33.6B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $18.6B. The latest quarter shrank 10.5% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $4.7B, a 25.2% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $12.79.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $6.1B.

  • Arch Capital Group Ltd. spent $3.5B on share buybacks and $45.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 341.0M.

  • Trailing P/E: 7.6×; forward P/E: 9.9× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Arch Capital Group Ltd. employs 8,000 people — $2.3M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 19 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

ACGL vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelInsurance - Diversified
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd.$33.1B
66
HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.$36.2B
67
AIGAmerican International Group, Inc.$39.4B
59
PLGOPelagos Insurance Capital Ltd.$2.0B
79
RKTRocket Cos., Inc.*$34.6B
17
NTRSNorthern Trust Corp.*$33.6B
94
MTBM&T Bank Corp.*$32.9B
72

* Nearest Financial Services names by size — few insurance - diversified companies of this scale trade in the US universe.

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Arch Capital Group Ltd. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest ACGL news & analysis

Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Ascends While Market Falls: Some Facts to Note

Zacks Investment Research · 14 Sept 2026positive

Arch Capital Group (ACGL) closed at $97.95 on the latest trading day, a +1.94% gain from its previous close, rising even as the broader market fell. The article highlights this move as a notable fact about the stock's recent performance.

Why it matters — A stock-research reader following ACGL would care because the shares advanced against a declining market, which can signal relative strength in the stock.

3 Reinsurers Set to Benefit From Alternative Capital Boom

Zacks Investment Research · 10 Sept 2026positive

Zacks Investment Research reports that alternative capital is set to reshape reinsurance, creating growth opportunities for reinsurers that combine strong underwriting with third-party capital. The item identifies this trend as benefiting the sector broadly.

Why it matters — ACGL watchers would care because the article positions reinsurers leveraging alternative capital as poised for growth, a theme relevant to ACGL's operations.

Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Outpaces Stock Market Gains: What You Should Know

Zacks Investment Research · 3 Sept 2026positive

Arch Capital Group (ACGL) closed its latest trading day at $99.83, a +1.65% change from its previous close, outperforming the broader stock market's gains for the session.

Why it matters — A stock researcher tracking ACGL would be interested in this share-price move since it shows the company gaining momentum relative to the wider market.

Baron Focused Growth Fund Q2 2026 Portfolio Update

Seeking Alpha · 3 Sept 2026neutral

Baron Focused Growth Fund reported its Q2 2026 portfolio update, noting a 13.26% gain for the quarter against a 24.02% rise in the Russell 2500 Growth Index. The fund held 28 investments as of June 30, 2026, and reiterated its long-term commitment to competitively advantaged, growth businesses.

Why it matters — ACGL watchers would care because the fund's portfolio update may reflect its continued or changed positioning in ACGL, offering insight into how a prominent growth fund is treating the stock.

Baron Generational Growth Fund Q2 2026 Portfolio Activity

Seeking Alpha · 31 Aug 2026neutral

Baron Generational Growth Fund reported its Q2 2026 portfolio activity, holding 15 investments as of June 30, 2026, with its top 10 holdings representing 104.8% of net assets. The report highlighted strength at Red Rock Resorts and Choice Hotels, with no mention of Arch Capital Group Ltd.

Why it matters — ACGL watchers would note that the fund's disclosed holdings do not include Arch Capital Group, so this report offers no direct insight into ACGL positioning or prospects.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about ACGL stock

What is the ACGL stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 20 Wall Street analysts covering Arch Capital Group Ltd. have a median 12-month price target of $111, with estimates ranging from $95 to $134. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is ACGL stock a buy right now?

Of the 20 analysts covering Arch Capital Group Ltd., 10 rate it a Buy, 9 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Arch Capital Group Ltd. 66 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 19 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank ACGL?

As at 19 Sept 2026, Arch Capital Group Ltd. ranks 66 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (95 of 100).

Will ACGL stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 20 analysts implies +14.6% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Arch Capital Group Ltd. 66 out of 100 as at 19 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the ACGL stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Arch Capital Group Ltd. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ACGL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $95 to $134 over the next 12 months.

How has ACGL stock performed over the past year?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. returned +9.9% over the 12 months to 18 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Arch Capital Group Ltd. do?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based specialty insurance company focused on providing insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance solutions.

What is the latest news on ACGL?

The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 14 Sept 2026): "Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Ascends While Market Falls: Some Facts to Note". Arch Capital Group (ACGL) closed at $97.95 on the latest trading day, a +1.94% gain from its previous close, rising even as the broader market fell. The article highlights this move as a notable fact about the stock's recent performance.

Company

About Arch Capital Group Ltd.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based specialty insurance company focused on providing insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance solutions. Its current business is organized around three core segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers a broad range of commercial and specialty coverages, including property, casualty, workers’ compensation, financial and professional liability, and excess and surplus lines. The Reinsurance segment supports insurers and other carriers with risk transfer solutions across property and casualty markets, while the Mortgage segment provides mortgage insurance products that help manage credit risk in residential lending. Arch Capital Group Ltd. serves clients across the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, Australia, and other international markets, making it a diversified participant in global specialty risk and underwriting services.

CEO Mr. Nicolas Alain Emmanuel Papadopoulo · 8,000 employees · Bermuda · https://www.archgroup.com