ACGLFinancial Services · Insurance - DiversifiedThe 20 Wall Street analysts covering Arch Capital Group Ltd. hold a median 12-month price target of $110 — +12.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 71 of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026 — in the upper half. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Arch Capital Group Ltd. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Volatility (91): The share price has been relatively steady.
Accruals (24): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Size (6): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ACGL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +12.7% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 3 moved their price target up and 4 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Downgrade | Equal-Weight | — |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | — |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | $118 → $113 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | $110 → $105 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | $111 → $105 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 16 Sept 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Neutral | $104 → $100 |
| 16 Sept 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 11 Aug 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 11 Aug 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | $116 → $118 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | $99 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | — |
| 5 Aug 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Market Perform | $95 → $102 |
| 5 Aug 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Market Perform | — |
| 3 Aug 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | $102 → $110 |
| 3 Aug 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 3 Aug 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. ACGL appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 14 Oct 2026, Arch Capital Group Ltd. returned +5.8% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 62% of US stocks
Cheaper than 55% of US stocks
Cheaper than 55% of US stocks
Cheaper than 51% of US stocks
Higher than 15% of US stocks
Higher than 23% of US stocks
Higher than 85% of US stocks
Higher than 85% of US stocks
Higher than 81% of US stocks
Higher than 72% of US stocks
Higher than 1% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. has a market value of $33.0B and an enterprise value of $33.7B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $18.6B. The latest quarter shrank 10.5% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $4.7B, a 25.2% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $12.79.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $6.1B.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. spent $3.5B on share buybacks and $45.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 7.6×; forward P/E: 9.9× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. employs 8,000 people — $2.3M of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
| Company | Market cap | TKN rank |
|---|---|---|
| ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | $33.0B | 71 |
| HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | $36.2B | 76 |
| AIGAmerican International Group, Inc. | $40.5B | 66 |
| PLGOPelagos Insurance Capital Ltd. | $2.1B | 80 |
| ARESAres Management Corp.* | $36.9B | 35 |
| IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc.* | $37.5B | 55 |
| CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc.* | $31.4B | 91 |
* Nearest Financial Services names by size — few insurance - diversified companies of this scale trade in the US universe.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Arch Capital Group Ltd. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Arch Capital Group closed at $96.08, up 1.86% from the preceding trading day, according to Zacks Investment Research.
Why it matters — The move provides ACGL watchers with a recent snapshot of the stock’s daily performance.
Zacks reported that Arch Capital (ACGL) has an impressive earnings surprise history and currently holds the right combination of key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its next quarterly report.
Why it matters — ACGL watchers would care because the article signals that the company is well positioned to continue its record of exceeding earnings expectations.
Zacks Investment Research highlighted two finance stocks, using its Earnings ESP tool to identify companies expected to beat quarterly earnings estimates. The piece aims to draw attention to these stocks as potential earnings outperformers.
Why it matters — ACGL watchers may find value in the Earnings ESP methodology as a reference for evaluating upcoming earnings expectations, though the article does not specifically mention ACGL.
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) shares closed at $92.36 in the latest trading session, a -2.9% decline from the prior day. This drop was more significant than the broader market's move.
Why it matters — ACGL watchers would care because the stock's sharper-than-market decline marks a notable negative trading day worth tracking for the company's price performance.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. announced it will release its 2026 third quarter results after market close on Tuesday, October 27, and will hold a conference call for investors and analysts at 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday, October 28. A live webcast will be available on the Company's website, with a recording available afterward.
Why it matters — ACGL watchers will learn the Company's third-quarter financial results and have the opportunity to hear management discuss performance during the scheduled investor conference call.
The 20 Wall Street analysts covering Arch Capital Group Ltd. have a median 12-month price target of $110, with estimates ranging from $95 to $129. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 20 analysts covering Arch Capital Group Ltd., 9 rate it a Buy, 10 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Arch Capital Group Ltd. 71 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 14 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 14 Oct 2026, Arch Capital Group Ltd. ranks 71 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (91 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 20 analysts implies +12.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Arch Capital Group Ltd. 71 out of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Arch Capital Group Ltd. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ACGL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $95 to $129 over the next 12 months.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. returned +5.8% over the 12 months to 14 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based specialty insurance company focused on providing insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance solutions.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 8 Oct 2026): "Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Increases Despite Market Slip: Here's What You Need to Know". Arch Capital Group closed at $96.08, up 1.86% from the preceding trading day, according to Zacks Investment Research.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based specialty insurance company focused on providing insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance solutions. Its current business is organized around three core segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers a broad range of commercial and specialty coverages, including property, casualty, workers’ compensation, financial and professional liability, and excess and surplus lines. The Reinsurance segment supports insurers and other carriers with risk transfer solutions across property and casualty markets, while the Mortgage segment provides mortgage insurance products that help manage credit risk in residential lending. Arch Capital Group Ltd. serves clients across the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, Australia, and other international markets, making it a diversified participant in global specialty risk and underwriting services.
CEO Mr. Nicolas Alain Emmanuel Papadopoulo · 8,000 employees · Bermuda · https://www.archgroup.com
