ACGLFinancial Services · Insurance - DiversifiedThe 19 Wall Street analysts covering Arch Capital Group Ltd. hold a median 12-month price target of $111 — +0.3% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 73 of 100 as at 4 Nov 2026 — in the upper half. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Arch Capital Group Ltd. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Volatility (88): The share price has been relatively steady.
Accruals (30): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Size (6): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ACGL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +0.3% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 3 moved their price target up and 7 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $123 → $125 |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $100 → $103 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Downgrade | Equal-Weight | — |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Downgrade | Equal-Weight | $105 → $100 |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | — |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | $99 → $95 |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $117 → $107 |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | $118 → $113 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | $110 → $105 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | $111 → $105 |
| 16 Sept 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 16 Sept 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Neutral | $104 → $100 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | $116 → $118 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | — |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | $99 |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
ACGL appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
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Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 4 Nov 2026, Arch Capital Group Ltd. returned +26.5% against +14.8% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 60% of US stocks
Cheaper than 53% of US stocks
Cheaper than 51% of US stocks
Cheaper than 48% of US stocks
Higher than 17% of US stocks
Higher than 20% of US stocks
Higher than 85% of US stocks
Higher than 84% of US stocks
Higher than 80% of US stocks
Higher than 70% of US stocks
Higher than 1% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. has a market value of $35.7B and an enterprise value of $36.2B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $18.6B. The latest quarter shrank 8.9% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $4.7B, a 25.2% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $12.79.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $6.1B.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. spent $3.5B on share buybacks and $45.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 8.8×; forward P/E: 10.8× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. employs 8,000 people — $2.3M of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
| Company | Market cap | TKN rank |
|---|---|---|
| ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | $35.7B | 73 |
| HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | $37.9B | 74 |
| AIGAmerican International Group, Inc. | $42.7B | 55 |
| PLGOPelagos Insurance Capital Ltd. | $2.4B | 82 |
| COINCoinbase Global, Inc.* | $40.1B | 27 |
| RKTRocket Cos., Inc.* | $42.5B | 21 |
| CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc.* | $36.1B | 93 |
* Nearest Financial Services names by size — few insurance - diversified companies of this scale trade in the US universe.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Arch Capital Group Ltd. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Zacks Investment Research discusses using its Earnings ESP tool to identify stocks that may exceed quarterly earnings estimates. The provided excerpt does not identify the two stocks or provide details specific to ACGL.
Why it matters — An ACGL watcher may note the earnings-estimate screening topic, but the excerpt does not establish whether ACGL is one of the stocks discussed.
Arch Capital Group held its Q3 2026 earnings call on October 28, 2026. The excerpt lists company executives and participating analysts but does not include earnings results or discussion details.
Why it matters — The call is relevant to ACGL watchers, but the provided excerpt contains no financial or operational updates to assess.
Arch Capital Group reported third-quarter 2026 after-tax operating income of $910 million, or $2.67 per share. Strong underwriting results and investment income helped offset an increasingly competitive market environment, according to management.
Why it matters — The results highlight the contributions of underwriting and investment income amid competitive market conditions.
Arch Capital’s Q3 2026 earnings beat estimates, supported by higher investment income. Lower premiums, rising catastrophe losses and weaker underwriting weighed on results.
Why it matters — ACGL watchers may note the earnings beat alongside pressure from premiums, catastrophe losses and underwriting.
Seeking Alpha says Arch Capital’s Q3 results included EPS of $2.67, above expectations by $0.30, and an 82.5% combined ratio. The article highlights disciplined underwriting and premium growth, share buybacks that reduced the share count by 9%, and a conservative investment portfolio amid more competitive pricing.
Why it matters — These results and management practices are relevant to ACGL watchers assessing underwriting performance and the company’s response to competitive insurance markets.
The 19 Wall Street analysts covering Arch Capital Group Ltd. have a median 12-month price target of $111, with estimates ranging from $95 to $140. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 19 analysts covering Arch Capital Group Ltd., 8 rate it a Buy, 10 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Arch Capital Group Ltd. 73 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 4 Nov 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 4 Nov 2026, Arch Capital Group Ltd. ranks 73 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (88 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 19 analysts implies +0.3% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Arch Capital Group Ltd. 73 out of 100 as at 4 Nov 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Arch Capital Group Ltd. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ACGL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $95 to $140 over the next 12 months.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. returned +26.5% over the 12 months to 4 Nov 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based specialty insurance company focused on providing insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance solutions.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 30 Oct 2026): "Why Investors Need to Take Advantage of These 2 Finance Stocks Now". Zacks Investment Research discusses using its Earnings ESP tool to identify stocks that may exceed quarterly earnings estimates. The provided excerpt does not identify the two stocks or provide details specific to ACGL.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based specialty insurance company focused on providing insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance solutions. Its current business is organized around three core segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers a broad range of commercial and specialty coverages, including property, casualty, workers’ compensation, financial and professional liability, and excess and surplus lines. The Reinsurance segment supports insurers and other carriers with risk transfer solutions across property and casualty markets, while the Mortgage segment provides mortgage insurance products that help manage credit risk in residential lending. Arch Capital Group Ltd. serves clients across the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, Australia, and other international markets, making it a diversified participant in global specialty risk and underwriting services.
CEO Mr. Nicolas Alain Emmanuel Papadopoulo · 8,000 employees · Bermuda · https://www.archgroup.com
