AGROConsumer Defensive · Farm ProductsThe 8 Wall Street analysts covering Adecoagro SA hold a median 12-month price target of $13 — +28.5% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 30 of 100 as at 3 Oct 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Adecoagro SA on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Growth (89): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.
Issuance (9): The company has been issuing shares or taking on financing, diluting existing holders.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on AGRO, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +28.5% from it.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $15 → $13 |
| 15 June 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Underweight | $7.00 → $11 |
| 15 June 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Underweight | — |
| 15 Apr 2026 | Citigroup | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 30 Mar 2026 | UBS | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 17 Mar 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | Equal-Weight | — |
| 2 Dec 2025 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 1 Dec 2025 | JP Morgan | Reinstates | Underweight | $7.00 |
| 3 Sept 2025 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 16 July 2025 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Underweight | — |
| 29 Apr 2025 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 28 Apr 2025 | Morgan Stanley | Downgrade | Underweight | — |
| 14 Oct 2024 | UBS | Initiates | Neutral | — |
| 26 Sept 2024 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 17 Sept 2024 | Morgan Stanley | Downgrade | Equal-Weight | — |
| 9 Sept 2024 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 1 July 2024 | JP Morgan | Upgrade | Neutral | — |
| 8 Dec 2023 | JP Morgan | Downgrade | Underweight | — |
| 5 Dec 2023 | B of A Securities | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 17 Nov 2023 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. AGRO appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 2 Oct 2026, Adecoagro SA returned +31.5% against +16.2% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 28% of US stocks
Cheaper than 71% of US stocks
Cheaper than 77% of US stocks
Cheaper than 43% of US stocks
Higher than 83% of US stocks
Higher than 71% of US stocks
Higher than 38% of US stocks
Higher than 75% of US stocks
Higher than 55% of US stocks
Higher than 51% of US stocks
Higher than 62% of US stocks
Higher than 51% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Adecoagro SA has a market value of $1.5B and an enterprise value of $3.6B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.6B. The latest quarter grew 39.0% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $60.6M, a 3.7% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $0.42.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $52.3M, after $71K of capital spending.
Adecoagro SA spent $0.0 on share buybacks and $35.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 26.6×; forward P/E: 7.3× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 2.39%, paying out 78% of earnings.
Adecoagro SA employs 8,896 people — $185K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Adecoagro SA — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Adecoagro S.A. announced the early redemption of its 6.000% senior notes due 2027. The announcement was made from Luxembourg on September 28, 2026.
Why it matters — This early redemption reflects a corporate finance action by Adecoagro that AGRO watchers would monitor for its impact on the company's capital structure and debt obligations.
Fitch Ratings initiated coverage of Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE: AGRO), assigning 'BB' Long-Term Local Currency and Foreign Currency Issuer Default Ratings with a Stable Outlook. The Company announced the rating initiation on September 18, 2026.
Why it matters — The initiation of coverage with a BB rating and Stable Outlook provides AGRO watchers with an independent credit assessment of the company's financial standing.
Seeking Alpha reports that Adecoagro is positioned for a re-rating after acquiring Profertil and expanding its sugarcane cluster, creating a diversified three-pillar revenue engine. The company's fixed-price gas contracts for Profertil shield margins from global volatility, enabling it to capture urea price spikes through late 2027, while its sugar/ethanol operations and exposure to tightening global sugar markets add upside.
Why it matters — AGRO watchers would care because the article describes the company as undervalued relative to book value while highlighting multiple revenue drivers from its recent Profertil acquisition and sugar operations.
Adecoagro S.A. published the transcript of its Q2 2026 earnings call, as republished by Seeking Alpha. The transcript covers the company's second-quarter 2026 results and management discussion.
Why it matters — AGRO watchers can review management's commentary on the quarter's operational and financial performance directly from the earnings call transcript.
Adecoagro reported record consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $173 million for the second quarter and $258 million for the first half of 2026, driven by strength in its fertilizer business, which offset softer results in other segments.
Why it matters — The record EBITDA highlights strong performance in the fertilizer segment despite headwinds in sugar, ethanol, and other operations, offering a key data point for assessing the company's diversified business mix.
The 8 Wall Street analysts covering Adecoagro SA have a median 12-month price target of $13, with estimates ranging from $11 to $16. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 8 analysts covering Adecoagro SA, 1 rate it a Buy, 6 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Adecoagro SA 30 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 3 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 3 Oct 2026, Adecoagro SA ranks 30 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (89 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 8 analysts implies +28.5% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Adecoagro SA 30 out of 100 as at 3 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Adecoagro SA publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for AGRO are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $11 to $16 over the next 12 months.
Adecoagro SA returned +31.5% over the 12 months to 2 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Adecoagro S.A. is an agricultural and agro-industrial company focused on producing food, renewable energy, and fertilizers across South America.
The most recent item we track (PRNewsWire, 28 Sept 2026): "Adecoagro Announces Early Redemption of its 6.000% Senior Notes due 2027". Adecoagro S.A. announced the early redemption of its 6.000% senior notes due 2027. The announcement was made from Luxembourg on September 28, 2026.
Adecoagro S.A. is an agricultural and agro-industrial company focused on producing food, renewable energy, and fertilizers across South America. The company operates through farming and sugar, ethanol, and energy activities, with a diversified portfolio that includes crops, rice, dairy, sugarcane, ethanol, electricity, and fertilizer production. Its business model combines large-scale farming with industrial processing, allowing it to transform raw agricultural output into value-added products for food, energy, and industrial markets. Adecoagro serves customers and end markets in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay, where it manages farmland and industrial facilities tied to regional agricultural supply chains. Headquartered in Luxembourg, Adecoagro S.A. plays a significant role in South America’s agribusiness sector as a vertically integrated producer with exposure to essential commodities and renewable energy.
CEO Mr. Mariano Bosch · 8,896 employees · Luxembourg · https://www.adecoagro.com
