ASTLBasic Materials · Steel

ASTL Stock Forecast: Algoma Steel Group, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 11 Sept 2026

$4.26

−0.93% on the day

Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 9 of 100 as at 10 Sept 2026 — in the weakest quartile.

Market cap

$454.3M

Ticker Nerd rank

9 / 100

Median analyst target

—

Analysts covering

Revenue$267.5M−54.6% y/y

Operating income−$134.2M

Net income−$96.0M

Free cash flow−$108.4M

Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown

Total return, dividends reinvested

−4.3%

−3.6%

YTD

+3.9%

−7.6%

From 52W high

−26.6%

From 52W low

+33.5%

$3.19

$5.80

52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close

Ticker Nerd rank

ASTL stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Algoma Steel Group, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 10 Sept 2026

9 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Accruals

Size

Momentum

Revisions

Volatility

Value

Issuance

Quality

Growth

Accruals (96): Reported profit is backed by cash, and the company is not expanding recklessly.

Growth (4): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

ASTL stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ASTL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says3 analysts

1 Buy2 Hold0 Sell

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Date	Firm	Action	Rating	Target
23 June 2023	Stifel	Maintains	Buy	$16 → $14

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. ASTL appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Performance

ASTL vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 11 Sept 2026, Algoma Steel Group, Inc. returned −7.6% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

ASTL vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

ASTL analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year

Analysts raising

Analysts cutting

Fundamentals

Algoma Steel Group, Inc. (ASTL) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation

Trailing P/E: 17.8×
Price / sales: 0.3×
Price / book: 2.1×
EV / EBITDA: −2.9×

Growth & margins

Revenue growth (YoY): −54.6%
Earnings growth (YoY): −54.6%
Gross margin: −39.4%
Operating margin: −51.4%
Net margin: −71.6%

Returns & dividend

Return on equity: −139.1%
Return on assets: −21.1%
Dividend yield: 4.7%

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Algoma Steel Group, Inc. (ASTL) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

Algoma Steel Group, Inc. has a market value of $454.3M and an enterprise value of $1.1B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.5B. The latest quarter shrank 54.6% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: −$1.1B, a −71.6% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−10.16.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$365.4M.
Algoma Steel Group, Inc. spent $0.0 on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Shares outstanding: 105.7M.
Trailing P/E: 17.8×; forward P/E: −14.4× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 4.66%, paying out 0% of earnings.
Algoma Steel Group, Inc. employs 2,400 people — $643K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 11 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

ASTL vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelSteel

Company	Market cap	TKN rank
ASTLAlgoma Steel Group, Inc.	$454.3M	9
FRDFriedman Industries, Inc.	$316.5M	55
MTUSMetallus, Inc.	$799.2M	75
NWPXNWPX Infrastructure, Inc.	$995.8M	99
WSWorthington Steel, Inc.	$1.7B	45
LUDLuda Technology Group Ltd.	$96.3M	1
HLPHongli Group, Inc.	$88.1M	34

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Algoma Steel Group, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest ASTL news & analysis

Algoma Steel Group Inc. Provides Update on Lake Superior Power Plant Outage

GlobeNewsWire · 2 Sept 2026negative

Algoma Steel Group Inc. provided an update on the previously announced unplanned outage at its Lake Superior Power (LSP) generating facility in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. The company is a leading Canadian producer of steel plate and hot-rolled sheet products.

Why it matters — An unplanned outage at its power generating facility could affect Algoma's operations or costs, making the status of the upgrade relevant to shareholders tracking the company.

Algoma Steel Group Inc. Reports Unplanned Outage at Lake Superior Power Plant

GlobeNewsWire · 17 Aug 2026negative

Algoma Steel announced an unplanned outage at its Lake Superior Power generating facility after one turbine unit detected an abnormal condition and was automatically taken offline. The company stated that the remaining LSP units were not affected.

Why it matters — Because the Lake Superior Power facility supplies power supporting Algoma's steel production, an unplanned outage of one of its turbines could carry operational implications, even though the other units remained in service.

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Seeking Alpha · 30 July 2026neutral

Seeking Alpha published the transcript of Algoma Steel Group Inc.'s Q2 2026 earnings call.

Why it matters — The earnings call transcript provides detailed management commentary on the company's quarterly financial performance and operational outlook.

Algoma Steel Group Q2 Earnings Call Highlights

MarketBeat · 30 July 2026positive

Algoma Steel Group reported positive adjusted EBITDA in its fiscal second quarter of 2026, even as it continues transitioning to electric arc furnace steelmaking. The company faces headwinds including lower shipment volumes and planned operational work heading into the third quarter.

Why it matters — ASTL watchers would note that the positive adjusted EBITDA signals financial stability during the company's costly transition to EAF steelmaking, while the shipment and operational headwinds suggest near-term earnings pressure.

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) Reports Q2 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Zacks Investment Research · 30 July 2026negative

Algoma Steel Group reported a quarterly loss of $0.64 per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a $0.51 loss, though narrower than the $0.74 per share loss reported a year ago.

Why it matters — The larger-than-expected quarterly loss signals that Algoma Steel's financial performance fell short of analyst expectations for the period.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about ASTL stock

Is ASTL stock a buy right now?

Of the 3 analysts covering Algoma Steel Group, Inc., 1 rate it a Buy, 2 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Algoma Steel Group, Inc. 9 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 10 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank ASTL?

As at 10 Sept 2026, Algoma Steel Group, Inc. ranks 9 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Accruals (96 of 100).

What is the ASTL stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Algoma Steel Group, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ASTL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business.

How has ASTL stock performed over the past year?

Algoma Steel Group, Inc. returned -7.6% over the 12 months to 11 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Algoma Steel Group, Inc. do?

Algoma Steel Group Inc. Common Shares represent equity ownership in Algoma Steel Group Inc., a North American steel producer headquartered in Sault Ste.

What is the latest news on ASTL?

The most recent item we track (GlobeNewsWire, 2 Sept 2026): "Algoma Steel Group Inc. Provides Update on Lake Superior Power Plant Outage". Algoma Steel Group Inc. provided an update on the previously announced unplanned outage at its Lake Superior Power (LSP) generating facility in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. The company is a leading Canadian producer of steel plate and hot-rolled sheet products.

Company

About Algoma Steel Group, Inc.

Algoma Steel Group Inc. Common Shares represent equity ownership in Algoma Steel Group Inc., a North American steel producer headquartered in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. The company focuses on the production of hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel products, including sheet and plate, serving customers across construction, manufacturing, energy, infrastructure, and distribution channels. Algoma Steel Group Inc. operates as a fully integrated steelmaker with electric arc furnace and rolling mill capabilities, using scrap and direct reduced iron as key inputs in its production process. Its common shares provide exposure to a business centered on essential steel materials used in industrial and commercial applications. Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a publicly traded issuer in the Canadian and U.S. markets, and its share class is a standard common equity instrument within the basic materials sector.

CEO Mr. Rajat Marwah · 2,400 employees · Canada · https://algoma.com