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ASTLASTLBasic Materials · Steel

ASTL Stock Forecast: Algoma Steel Group, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 12 Oct 2026
$4.25
−1.16% on the day

Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 9 of 100 as at 9 Oct 2026 — in the weakest quartile.

Market cap
$473.2M
Ticker Nerd rank
9/ 100
Median analyst target
—
Analysts covering
4
Revenue$267.5M−54.6% y/y
Operating income−$134.2M
Net income−$96.0M
Free cash flow−$108.4M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−4.5%
1M
−0.2%
YTD
+3.7%
1Y
+20.4%
From 52W high
−26.7%
From 52W low
+29.6%
$3.28
$5.80
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

ASTL stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Algoma Steel Group, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 9 Oct 2026
9/ 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Accruals
96
Size
54
Momentum
41
Volatility
30
Revisions
25
Value
17
Issuance
11
Quality
4
Growth
4

Accruals (96): Reported profit is backed by cash, and the company is not expanding recklessly.

Growth (4): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

ASTL stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ASTL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$3.50$4.00$4.50$5.00$5.50Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26ASTL

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says4 analysts
1 Buy3 Hold0 Sell
Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
23 June 2023StifelMaintainsBuy$16 → $14

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

ASTL appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.

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Performance

ASTL vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 12 Oct 2026, Algoma Steel Group, Inc. returned +20.4% against +20.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

ASTL vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
90100110120130140150Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26ASTLS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

ASTL analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
2
Fundamentals

Algoma Steel Group, Inc. (ASTL) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
17.8×

Cheaper than 41% of US stocks

Price / sales
0.3×

Cheaper than 88% of US stocks

Price / book
2.3×

Cheaper than 42% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
−3.0×

Cheaper than 76% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−54.6%

Higher than 5% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−54.6%

Higher than 9% of US stocks

Gross margin
−39.4%

Higher than 2% of US stocks

Operating margin
−51.4%

Higher than 17% of US stocks

Net margin
−71.6%

Higher than 8% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
−139.1%

Higher than 10% of US stocks

Return on assets
−21.1%

Higher than 19% of US stocks

Dividend yield
4.3%

Higher than 93% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Algoma Steel Group, Inc. (ASTL) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Algoma Steel Group, Inc. has a market value of $473.2M and an enterprise value of $1.1B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.5B. The latest quarter shrank 54.6% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: −$1.1B, a −71.6% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−10.16.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$365.4M.

  • Algoma Steel Group, Inc. spent $0.0 on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 105.7M.

  • Trailing P/E: 17.8×; forward P/E: −19.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 4.32%, paying out 38% of earnings.

  • Algoma Steel Group, Inc. employs 2,400 people — $643K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 22 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

ASTL vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelSteel
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
ASTLAlgoma Steel Group, Inc.$473.2M9
FRDFriedman Industries, Inc.$299.1M53
MTUSMetallus, Inc.$860.5M78
NWPXNWPX Infrastructure, Inc.$954.7M99
HLPHongli Group, Inc.$210.8M36
ZKINZK International Group Co., Ltd.$109.1M9
WSWorthington Steel, Inc.$2.1B45

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Algoma Steel Group, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest ASTL news & analysis

Earnings Preview: Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) Q3 Earnings Expected to Decline

Zacks Investment Research · 21 Oct 2026negative

Zacks Investment Research says Algoma Steel Group’s (ASTL) upcoming Q3 earnings are expected to decline. The excerpt says the company lacks the combination of two key ingredients associated with a likely earnings beat.

Why it matters — ASTL watchers may note the report’s expectation of declining Q3 earnings and the absence of factors Zacks associates with a likely beat.

Canadian steelmakers offset some US tariff pain with domestic demand

Reuters · 16 Oct 2026positive

Canada’s steel industry is beginning to turn a corner from US tariff pressure, supported by increased mining, energy and AI data-center projects and government support. The recovery is uneven across the country.

Why it matters — Domestic project demand and government support may help offset tariff-related pressure for Algoma Steel, though the article notes conditions differ by region.

Algoma Steel Group Inc. to Announce 2026 Third Quarter Results October 28, 2026

GlobeNewsWire · 15 Oct 2026neutral

Algoma Steel Group said it will release its 2026 third-quarter financial results after market close on October 28, 2026. A webcast and conference call to review the results and discuss recent events is scheduled for October 29 at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time.

Why it matters — ASTL watchers can note the scheduled date and time for the company’s quarterly results and related discussion.

Algoma Steel Group Inc. Provides Guidance for the Third Quarter 2026

GlobeNewsWire · 1 Oct 2026neutral

Algoma Steel Group Inc. provided guidance for its third quarter ended September 30, 2026, in an announcement released on October 1, 2026. The company noted that all amounts are in Canadian dollars.

Why it matters — ASTL watchers would monitor this guidance to gauge the company's expected performance for the recently completed quarter.

Algoma Steel Group Inc. Provides Update on Lake Superior Power Plant Outage

GlobeNewsWire · 2 Sept 2026negative

Algoma Steel Group Inc. provided an update on the previously announced unplanned outage at its Lake Superior Power (LSP) generating facility in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. The company is a leading Canadian producer of steel plate and hot-rolled sheet products.

Why it matters — An unplanned outage at its power generating facility could affect Algoma's operations or costs, making the status of the upgrade relevant to shareholders tracking the company.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about ASTL stock

Is ASTL stock a buy right now?

Of the 4 analysts covering Algoma Steel Group, Inc., 1 rate it a Buy, 3 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Algoma Steel Group, Inc. 9 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 9 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank ASTL?

As at 9 Oct 2026, Algoma Steel Group, Inc. ranks 9 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Accruals (96 of 100).

What is the ASTL stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Algoma Steel Group, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ASTL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business.

How has ASTL stock performed over the past year?

Algoma Steel Group, Inc. returned +20.4% over the 12 months to 12 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Algoma Steel Group, Inc. do?

Algoma Steel Group Inc. Common Shares represent equity ownership in Algoma Steel Group Inc., a North American steel producer headquartered in Sault Ste.

What is the latest news on ASTL?

The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 21 Oct 2026): "Earnings Preview: Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) Q3 Earnings Expected to Decline". Zacks Investment Research says Algoma Steel Group’s (ASTL) upcoming Q3 earnings are expected to decline. The excerpt says the company lacks the combination of two key ingredients associated with a likely earnings beat.

Company

About Algoma Steel Group, Inc.

Algoma Steel Group Inc. Common Shares represent equity ownership in Algoma Steel Group Inc., a North American steel producer headquartered in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. The company focuses on the production of hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel products, including sheet and plate, serving customers across construction, manufacturing, energy, infrastructure, and distribution channels. Algoma Steel Group Inc. operates as a fully integrated steelmaker with electric arc furnace and rolling mill capabilities, using scrap and direct reduced iron as key inputs in its production process. Its common shares provide exposure to a business centered on essential steel materials used in industrial and commercial applications. Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a publicly traded issuer in the Canadian and U.S. markets, and its share class is a standard common equity instrument within the basic materials sector.

CEO Mr. Rajat Marwah · 2,400 employees · Canada · https://algoma.com