BAERIndustrials · Security & Protection ServicesThe 3 Wall Street analysts covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $4 — +892.1% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 9 of 100 as at 31 Oct 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Size (86): Smaller than most of the companies we track.
Growth (6): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on BAER, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +892.1% from it.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | $4.50 → $4.00 |
| 20 May 2026 | Lake Street | Initiates | Buy | $4.50 |
| 20 May 2026 | Lake Street | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 9 Mar 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 25 Nov 2025 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 28 May 2025 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 17 Mar 2025 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 15 Jan 2025 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 13 Nov 2024 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 13 Aug 2024 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 2 July 2024 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 24 June 2024 | Canaccord Genuity | Initiates | Buy | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
BAER appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
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Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 30 Oct 2026, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. returned −76.3% against +12.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 20% of US stocks
Cheaper than 91% of US stocks
Cheaper than 78% of US stocks
Cheaper than 7% of US stocks
Higher than 26% of US stocks
Higher than 36% of US stocks
Higher than 45% of US stocks
Higher than 78% of US stocks
Higher than 19% of US stocks
Higher than 26% of US stocks
Higher than 47% of US stocks
Higher than 99% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. has a market value of $24.8M and an enterprise value of $706.4M.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $115.4M. The latest quarter shrank 0.8% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: −$12.4M, a −10.8% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−0.85.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$90.5M, after $1.4M of capital spending.
Trailing P/E: 36.6×; forward P/E: −1.7× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 112.78%, paying out 0% of earnings.
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. employs 235 people — $491K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Bridger Aerospace said it will release financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, after market close on Monday, November 16, 2026.
Why it matters — BAER watchers can note the scheduled date for the company’s third-quarter results announcement.
Zacks Investment Research says Bridger Aerospace does not have the combination of two key ingredients it associates with a likely earnings beat ahead of the company’s Q3 report. The headline notes that Wall Street expects earnings growth.
Why it matters — BAER watchers may note the article’s cautious view on the likelihood of an earnings beat as the Q3 results approach.
Bridger Aerospace and Metatek Group entered into a long-term aircraft services agreement to support global geophysical surveying. The agreement provides for the dedicated deployment of three Basler BT-67 special mission aircraft configured with advanced sensor technology.
Why it matters — The agreement concerns deployment of three Bridger aircraft for a global surveying program, a new services commitment relevant to BAER watchers.
Metatek Group announced a long-term Aircraft Services Agreement with Bridger Aerospace, providing dedicated deployment of three Basler BT-67 special mission aircraft to support Metatek’s existing operations and additional eFTG systems on order.
Why it matters — The agreement adds a long-term aircraft services arrangement supporting Metatek’s global geophysical surveying operations.
Bridger Aerospace was awarded a 220-day U.S. Department of the Interior task order to provide air attack flight services in 2027 in support of the U.S. Wildland Fire Service. The headline identifies a Multi-Mission King Air 350.
Why it matters — The award adds a 2027 federal air attack services task order to Bridger’s announced work.
The 3 Wall Street analysts covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $4, with estimates ranging from $2.1 to $4. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 3 analysts covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc., 3 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. 9 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 31 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 31 Oct 2026, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. ranks 9 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Size (86 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 3 analysts implies +892.1% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. 9 out of 100 as at 31 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for BAER are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $2.1 to $4 over the next 12 months.
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. returned -76.3% over the 12 months to 30 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. is an aerial wildfire management and specialty aviation services company focused on wildfire surveillance, relief, suppression, and firefighting support.
The most recent item we track (GlobeNewsWire, 29 Oct 2026): "Bridger Aerospace Announces Schedule for its Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call". Bridger Aerospace said it will release financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, after market close on Monday, November 16, 2026.
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. is an aerial wildfire management and specialty aviation services company focused on wildfire surveillance, relief, suppression, and firefighting support. Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. serves federal and state government agencies, including the United States Forest Service, by deploying specialized aircraft and mission crews for fire detection, water dropping, tactical coordination, and incident support. The company also provides maintenance, repair, and overhaul services, along with airframe modification and integration solutions for governmental and commercial customers. Its operations center on direct wildfire response and aviation support, making it a specialized provider within the public-safety and emergency-response market.
CEO Mr. Sam Davis · 235 employees · United States · https://www.bridgeraerospace.com
