The 6 Wall Street analysts covering Merlin, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $8.25 — +685.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 6 of 100 as at 29 Oct 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Merlin, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Accruals (89): Reported profit is backed by cash, and the company is not expanding recklessly.
Momentum (4): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MRLN, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +685.7% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 0 moved their price target up and 4 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | $8.00 → $4.00 |
| 25 Sept 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 25 Sept 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Initiates | Buy | $7.50 |
| 18 Sept 2026 | Maxim Group | Initiates | Buy | $7.00 |
| 18 Sept 2026 | Maxim Group | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 14 Aug 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 14 Aug 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Overweight | $11 → $9.00 |
| 21 July 2026 | Northland Capital Markets | Initiates | Outperform | $10 |
| 21 July 2026 | Northland Capital Markets | Initiates | Outperform | — |
| 13 July 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | $11 → $8.00 |
| 13 July 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 9 July 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Initiates | Overweight | $11 |
| 9 July 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Initiates | Overweight | — |
| 3 June 2026 | TD Cowen | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 16 Apr 2026 | Roth Capital | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 14 Apr 2026 | Roth Capital | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 12 Dec 2017 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Initiates | Outperform | $26 |
| 3 Feb 2016 | William Blair | Downgrade | Market Perform | — |
| 23 Apr 2015 | JMP Securities | Maintains | Market Outperform | $27 → $26 |
| 22 Apr 2015 | Sidoti & Co. | Initiates | Buy | $28 |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
MRLN appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
AI cloud capacity
MSFTAMZNGOOGLORCL
AI chips
NVDAAVGOAMDMU
AI networking and serversIn full
ANETDELLLITECRDO
Data centre power
VRTCEGGEVVST
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 62% of US stocks
Cheaper than 9% of US stocks
Cheaper than 50% of US stocks
Cheaper than 69% of US stocks
Higher than 9% of US stocks
Higher than 88% of US stocks
Higher than 4% of US stocks
Higher than 5% of US stocks
Higher than 1% of US stocks
Higher than 92% of US stocks
Higher than 2% of US stocks
Higher than 99% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Merlin, Inc. has a market value of $115.2M and an enterprise value of $96.0M.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $8.2M. The latest quarter shrank 29.4% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: −$191.8M, a −2331.8% net margin.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$84.8M.
Trailing P/E: 7.5×; forward P/E: −1.0× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 48.91%, paying out 0% of earnings.
Merlin, Inc. employs 249 people — $33K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Merlin, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Merlin announced that it will report its third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, November 12, 2026. A presentation and live Q&A will follow after market close.
Why it matters — MRLN watchers can note the scheduled results release and accompanying presentation and Q&A.
Merlin, Inc. announced it has moved its U.S. flight operations to North Central State Airport in Smithfield, Rhode Island. The company said the move provides additional hangar capacity and operational flexibility for its expanding aircraft fleet and growing flight-testing requirements.
Why it matters — The relocation adds operational capacity intended to support Merlin’s expanding fleet and flight-testing activity.
Merlin, Inc. announced that its management is scheduled to participate in three investor conferences during the fourth quarter of 2026. The company, which builds the operating system of record for autonomous flight, is based in Boston and trades on Nasdaq under the ticker MRLN.
Why it matters — An MRLN watcher would care because upcoming investor conference appearances provide opportunities for management to present the company's progress and strategy directly to the investment community.
Merlin demonstrated autonomous flight capabilities at the Texas Department of Transportation's Project NEXUS eIPP kickoff event. The showcase highlighted how autonomy can support safer, more efficient aviation operations.
Why it matters — This demonstration showcases Merlin's autonomous technology in a government-partnered aviation context, signalling progress in its flight-safety and efficiency offerings that MRLN watchers track.
Merlin announced plans to pursue a civil certification strategy to bring autonomy to large aircraft, using a phased approach. It is withdrawing its small aircraft Supplemental Type Certificate application with New Zealand's Civil Aviation Authority and will apply the technical and regulatory experience gained there to the new program, while keeping New Zealand as its Pacific flight test center and demonstration home.
Why it matters — This marks a strategic shift in Merlin's certification focus toward large aircraft autonomy, which could shape the company's regulatory path and market direction.
The 6 Wall Street analysts covering Merlin, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $8.25, with estimates ranging from $4 to $10. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 6 analysts covering Merlin, Inc., 6 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Merlin, Inc. 6 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 29 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 29 Oct 2026, Merlin, Inc. ranks 6 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Accruals (89 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 6 analysts implies +685.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Merlin, Inc. 6 out of 100 as at 29 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Merlin, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MRLN are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $4 to $10 over the next 12 months.
Merlin, Inc. is an aerospace and defense technology company focused on autonomous flight software and systems for aircraft.
The most recent item we track (GlobeNewsWire, 22 Oct 2026): "Merlin to Report Third Quarter 2026 Results on November 12, 2026". Merlin announced that it will report its third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, November 12, 2026. A presentation and live Q&A will follow after market close.
Merlin, Inc. is an aerospace and defense technology company focused on autonomous flight software and systems for aircraft. Its flagship Merlin Pilot platform combines hardware and AI-powered software to support takeoff-to-touchdown flight operations, including navigation, trajectory adjustments, air traffic control communication, obstacle avoidance, and real-time decision-making. The company’s aircraft-agnostic approach is designed for both legacy and next-generation airborne systems, serving military and civil aviation programs. Merlin’s products are used across a range of mission profiles and aircraft types, with an emphasis on reducing crew requirements and enabling unmanned operations. Headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, Merlin, Inc. operates in a specialized segment of the aviation market where autonomy, sensor integration, and mission-ready software are increasingly important for defense and commercial applications.
CEO Mr. Grant Crenfeldt · 249 employees · United States · https://www.merlinlabs.com
