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MRLNIndustrials · Aerospace & Defense

MRLN Stock Forecast: Merlin, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 11 Sept 2026
$2.98
−1.32% on the day

The 4 Wall Street analysts covering Merlin, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $9.5 — +218.8% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 6 of 100 as at 12 Sept 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$305.2M
Ticker Nerd rank
6 / 100
Median analyst target
$9.50
Analysts covering
4
Revenue$2.2M+152.8% y/y
Operating income−$33.5M
Net income−$58.4M
Free cash flow−$28.9M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−11.3%
1M
−32.4%
From high
−81.5%
From low
+6.0%
$3
$16
Range since 17 Mar 2026, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

MRLN stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Merlin, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 12 Sept 2026
6 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Accruals
88
Size
62
Revisions
29
Volatility
16
Issuance
12
Value
8
Momentum
7
Growth
5
Quality
4

Accruals (88): Reported profit is backed by cash, and the company is not expanding recklessly.

Quality (4): Profits are thin or unreliable for the size of the business, or they are not turning into cash.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

MRLN stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MRLN, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, since 17 Mar 2026Adjusted close, US dollars
$2$4$6$8$10$12$14Apr 26May 26Jun 26Jul 26Aug 26Sep 26MRLNHigh $10.00Median $9.50Low $8.00

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says4 analysts
4 Buy0 Hold0 Sell
Low $8.00Median $9.50High $10.00

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +218.8% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 15 most recent actions, 0 moved their price target up and 4 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
14 Aug 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsOverweight$11 → $9.00
21 July 2026Northland Capital MarketsInitiatesOutperform$10
21 July 2026Northland Capital MarketsInitiatesOutperform—
13 July 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$11 → $8.00
13 July 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
9 July 2026Cantor FitzgeraldInitiatesOverweight$11
9 July 2026Cantor FitzgeraldInitiatesOverweight—
3 June 2026TD CowenInitiatesBuy—
16 Apr 2026Roth CapitalMaintainsBuy—
14 Apr 2026Roth CapitalInitiatesBuy—
12 Dec 2017Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsInitiatesOutperform$26
3 Feb 2016William BlairDowngradeMarket Perform—
23 Apr 2015JMP SecuritiesMaintainsMarket Outperform$27 → $26
22 Apr 2015Sidoti & Co.InitiatesBuy$28
2 May 2014JMP SecuritiesMaintainsMarket Outperform$32 → $29

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. MRLN appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

MRLN vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

MRLN vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
50100150Apr 26May 26Jun 26Jul 26Aug 26Sep 26MRLNS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

MRLN analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
0
Fundamentals

Merlin, Inc. (MRLN) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
7.5×

Cheaper than 62% of US stocks

Price / sales
45.1×

Cheaper than 6% of US stocks

Price / book
4.4×

Cheaper than 23% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
−3.1×

Cheaper than 75% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−29.4%

Higher than 9% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
152.8%

Higher than 88% of US stocks

Gross margin
−5.4%

Higher than 4% of US stocks

Operating margin
−1528.6%

Higher than 5% of US stocks

Net margin
−591.6%

Higher than 1% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
42.0%

Higher than 92% of US stocks

Return on assets
−112.3%

Higher than 2% of US stocks

Dividend yield
18.6%

Higher than 94% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Merlin, Inc. (MRLN) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Merlin, Inc. has a market value of $305.2M and an enterprise value of $286.0M.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $8.2M. The latest quarter shrank 29.4% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: −$191.8M, a −2331.8% net margin.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$84.8M.

  • Shares outstanding: 100.6M.

  • Trailing P/E: 7.5×; forward P/E: −3.0× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 18.57%, paying out 0% of earnings.

  • Merlin, Inc. employs 249 people — $33K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 11 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

MRLN vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelAerospace & Defense
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
MRLNMerlin, Inc.$305.2M
6
POWWOutdoor Holding Co.$247.4M
75
IAInnovative Solutions & Support, Inc.$338.7M
77
AIROAIRO Group Holdings, Inc.$229.3M
9
SIDUSidus Space, Inc.$201.1M
16
SPCEVirgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.$442.7M
28
ELMTThe Elmet Group Co.$485.4M
5

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Merlin, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest MRLN news & analysis

Merlin Demonstrates Autonomous Flight Capabilities at Texas Department of Transportation Project NEXUS eIPP Kickoff Event

GlobeNewsWire · 10 Sept 2026positive

Merlin demonstrated autonomous flight capabilities at the Texas Department of Transportation's Project NEXUS eIPP kickoff event. The showcase highlighted how autonomy can support safer, more efficient aviation operations.

Why it matters — This demonstration showcases Merlin's autonomous technology in a government-partnered aviation context, signalling progress in its flight-safety and efficiency offerings that MRLN watchers track.

Merlin Announces Plans to Pursue a Civil Certification Strategy for Large Aircraft

GlobeNewsWire · 9 Sept 2026neutral

Merlin announced plans to pursue a civil certification strategy to bring autonomy to large aircraft, using a phased approach. It is withdrawing its small aircraft Supplemental Type Certificate application with New Zealand's Civil Aviation Authority and will apply the technical and regulatory experience gained there to the new program, while keeping New Zealand as its Pacific flight test center and demonstration home.

Why it matters — This marks a strategic shift in Merlin's certification focus toward large aircraft autonomy, which could shape the company's regulatory path and market direction.

Merlin Gets A Buy For Development Milestones And Growth Potential

Seeking Alpha · 31 Aug 2026positive

Seeking Alpha reports that Merlin, an early-stage autonomous flight technology company, is rated Buy based on significant growth potential. The company doubled revenue to $2.2M in Q2-2026, reduced its net loss, and reached key technical milestones including its first fully autonomous landing.

Why it matters — MRLN watchers would care because the company achieved key development milestones, including its first fully autonomous landing, while doubling revenue and narrowing losses.

Merlin Designated a New Zealand Part 146 Aircraft Design Organization, Advancing Its Path to Commercial Operations

GlobeNewsWire · 24 Aug 2026positive

Merlin has been designated a New Zealand Part 146 Aircraft Design Organization by the Civil Aviation Authority of New Zealand, allowing its own engineers to approve aircraft design changes that previously required external design organizations.

Why it matters — This certification streamlines Merlin's path to commercial operations by enabling in-house approval of design changes, reducing reliance on outside organizations.

Merlin, Inc. Common Stock Q2 Earnings Call Highlights

MarketBeat · 14 Aug 2026positive

Merlin, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRLN) reported second-quarter revenue of approximately $2.2 million. During the quarter, the aviation-autonomy company advanced its C-130J program, expanded commercial cargo partnerships, and reached a certification milestone with New Zealand's aviation regulator.

Why it matters — MRLN watchers would note reported revenue and material program milestones in certification, partnerships, and its core C-130J program as indicators of the company's operational progress.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about MRLN stock

What is the MRLN stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 4 Wall Street analysts covering Merlin, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $9.5, with estimates ranging from $8 to $10. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is MRLN stock a buy right now?

Of the 4 analysts covering Merlin, Inc., 4 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Merlin, Inc. 6 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 12 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank MRLN?

As at 12 Sept 2026, Merlin, Inc. ranks 6 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Accruals (88 of 100).

Will MRLN stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 4 analysts implies +218.8% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Merlin, Inc. 6 out of 100 as at 12 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the MRLN stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Merlin, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MRLN are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $8 to $10 over the next 12 months.

What does Merlin, Inc. do?

Merlin, Inc. is an aerospace and defense technology company focused on autonomous flight software and systems for aircraft.

What is the latest news on MRLN?

The most recent item we track (GlobeNewsWire, 10 Sept 2026): "Merlin Demonstrates Autonomous Flight Capabilities at Texas Department of Transportation Project NEXUS eIPP Kickoff Event". Merlin demonstrated autonomous flight capabilities at the Texas Department of Transportation's Project NEXUS eIPP kickoff event. The showcase highlighted how autonomy can support safer, more efficient aviation operations.

Company

About Merlin, Inc.

Merlin, Inc. is an aerospace and defense technology company focused on autonomous flight software and systems for aircraft. Its flagship Merlin Pilot platform combines hardware and AI-powered software to support takeoff-to-touchdown flight operations, including navigation, trajectory adjustments, air traffic control communication, obstacle avoidance, and real-time decision-making. The company’s aircraft-agnostic approach is designed for both legacy and next-generation airborne systems, serving military and civil aviation programs. Merlin’s products are used across a range of mission profiles and aircraft types, with an emphasis on reducing crew requirements and enabling unmanned operations. Headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, Merlin, Inc. operates in a specialized segment of the aviation market where autonomy, sensor integration, and mission-ready software are increasingly important for defense and commercial applications.

CEO Mr. Matthew George · 249 employees · United States · https://www.merlinlabs.com