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MSDL Stock Forecast: Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 11 Sept 2026
$15
+0.48% on the day

The 7 Wall Street analysts covering Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund hold a median 12-month price target of $16 — +8.8% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 71 of 100 as at 12 Sept 2026 — in the upper half. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.

Market cap
$1.2B
Ticker Nerd rank
71 / 100
Median analyst target
$16
Analysts covering
7
Revenue$10.8M−71.8% y/y
Net income$7.9M
Free cash flow$103.8M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−3.2%
1M
−4.2%
YTD
−5.2%
1Y
−7.3%
From 52W high
−9.6%
From 52W low
+11.5%
$13
$16
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

MSDL stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 12 Sept 2026
71 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Value
99
Issuance
84
Volatility
83
Accruals
74
Momentum
58
Quality
55
Size
42
Revisions
39
Growth
26

Value (99): The shares cost little relative to the profits and assets behind them — which can mean the market is too gloomy, or that the business really is in trouble.

Growth (26): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

MSDL stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MSDL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$13$14$15$16$17Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26MSDLHigh $17Median $16Low $14

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says7 analysts
2 Buy5 Hold0 Sell
Low $14Median $16High $17

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +8.8% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
1 Sept 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral$16 → $16
2 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$14 → $15
2 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
20 Apr 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—
16 Apr 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
13 Mar 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
13 Mar 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—
5 Mar 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsSector Perform—
2 Mar 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
2 Mar 2026Wells FargoMaintainsEqual-Weight—
7 Jan 2026Wells FargoDowngradeEqual-Weight—
26 Nov 2025RBC CapitalDowngradeSector Perform—
10 Nov 2025JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
10 Nov 2025Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
14 Oct 2025UBSMaintainsNeutral—
10 Oct 2025LUCID CAPITAL MARKETSInitiatesBuy—
6 Oct 2025Wells FargoUpgradeOverweight—
1 Oct 2025JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
10 Sept 2025RBC CapitalMaintainsOutperform—
14 Aug 2025Wells FargoMaintainsEqual-Weight—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. MSDL appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

MSDL vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 11 Sept 2026, Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund returned −7.3% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

MSDL vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
8090100110120Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26MSDLS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

MSDL analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−1.9%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
5
Fundamentals

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
21.3×

Cheaper than 36% of US stocks

Price / sales
3.3×

Cheaper than 38% of US stocks

Price / book
0.8×

Cheaper than 80% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
—
Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−10.8%

Higher than 15% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−78.0%

Higher than 5% of US stocks

Gross margin
—
Operating margin
80.0%

Higher than 99% of US stocks

Net margin
16.0%

Higher than 79% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
3.5%

Higher than 51% of US stocks

Return on assets
4.9%

Higher than 76% of US stocks

Dividend yield
12.2%

Higher than 92% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund has a market value of $1.2B and an enterprise value of $3.2B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $72.4M. The latest quarter shrank 10.8% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $59.7M, a 82.5% net margin.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $282.9M.

  • Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund spent $39.2M on share buybacks and $168.4M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 84.5M.

  • Trailing P/E: 21.3×; forward P/E: 8.2× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 12.23%, paying out 275% of earnings.

  • Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund employs 0 people.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 14 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

MSDL vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelAsset Management
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
MSDLMorgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund$1.2B
71
VRTSVirtus Investment Partners, Inc.$995.7M
46
PAXPatria Investments Ltd.$1.7B
49
RPCRidgepost Capital, Inc.$888.1M
46
TIPTTiptree, Inc.$662.9M
70
ASSTStrive, Inc. (United States)$2.5B
22
GCMGGCM Grosvenor, Inc.$2.6B
89

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest MSDL news & analysis

The Best REIT And BDC To Own If Things Get Rougher From Here

Seeking Alpha · 2 Sept 2026neutral

A Seeking Alpha article discusses which REIT and BDC are best positioned to weather a major market downturn, evaluating candidates from both qualitative and quantitative standpoints and outlining the associated risks. The piece does not specifically address MSDL by name.

Why it matters — As a BDC, MSDL watchers would be interested in how the fund might fare relative to other business development companies during a potential market downturn.

Two 11%+ Yielding External BDCs Built For Long-Term Compounding

Seeking Alpha · 24 Aug 2026negative

The article examines the structural challenges faced by externally managed BDCs, including high fees and misaligned incentives, while outlining two motives for owning them: high-risk tactical trades and long-term income compounding. It notes the author selectively owns some external names despite generally favoring internally managed BDCs.

Why it matters — MSDL is an externally managed BDC, so the article's critique of high fees and misaligned incentives in this structure is directly relevant to MSDL watchers assessing its management model.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending: High Safety Margin Despite Non-Accrual Challenges

Seeking Alpha · 23 Aug 2026negative

Seeking Alpha reports that Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund trades at a 21% discount to NAV as market concerns grow over dividend sustainability and asset quality. The portfolio contracted for a fourth straight quarter since Q2'25, cost-based non-accruals rose to 2.9%, and NII per share fell 9.4% year-over-year, leaving dividend coverage fragile at about 101% after a recent cut.

Why it matters — A MSDL watcher would care because the figures highlight weakening asset quality and a fragile dividend, raising the possibility of further distribution reductions if negative trends persist.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund: The Dividend Is Likely To Get Slashed (Rating Downgrade)

Seeking Alpha · 22 Aug 2026negative

Seeking Alpha downgraded Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund to "Sell," citing rising non-accruals (from 1.5% to 2.9%) and deteriorating fundamentals. Q2 net investment income fell to $0.55 per share, NAV declined $0.31, and dividend coverage is thin at roughly 90% on a cash basis, leading to expectations that the dividend will likely be cut.

Why it matters — A likely reduction in the dividend would directly affect MSDL shareholders' income, and rising non-accruals signal worsening portfolio credit quality.

2 BDCs To Sell Before The Dividend Cuts Land

Seeking Alpha · 16 Aug 2026negative

The article discusses how most BDC players have cut dividends over the past 12 months, including supplemental payments, and suggests that most BDCs that have not yet cut are likely to do so soon, even among so-called blue-chip BDCs some investors view as durable income compounders.

Why it matters — As a BDC, MSDL watchers would be concerned about the article's suggestion that dividend cuts are likely across the sector, including for blue-chip BDCs, which could affect MSDL's income outlook.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about MSDL stock

What is the MSDL stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 7 Wall Street analysts covering Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund have a median 12-month price target of $16, with estimates ranging from $14 to $17. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is MSDL stock a buy right now?

Of the 7 analysts covering Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund, 2 rate it a Buy, 5 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund 71 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 12 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank MSDL?

As at 12 Sept 2026, Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund ranks 71 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Value (99 of 100).

Will MSDL stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 7 analysts implies +8.8% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund 71 out of 100 as at 12 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the MSDL stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MSDL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $14 to $17 over the next 12 months.

How has MSDL stock performed over the past year?

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund returned -7.3% over the 12 months to 11 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund do?

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund is a business development company focused on lending to U.S. middle-market companies.

What is the latest news on MSDL?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 2 Sept 2026): "The Best REIT And BDC To Own If Things Get Rougher From Here". A Seeking Alpha article discusses which REIT and BDC are best positioned to weather a major market downturn, evaluating candidates from both qualitative and quantitative standpoints and outlining the associated risks. The piece does not specifically address MSDL by name.

Company

About Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund is a business development company focused on lending to U.S. middle-market companies. Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund primarily originates directly sourced senior secured term loans, including first lien and second lien structures, and its portfolio is concentrated in sponsor-backed borrowers. The fund’s core purpose is to generate current income with a secondary emphasis on capital appreciation through credit investments in private and publicly owned businesses. It is externally managed and operates as a specialty finance vehicle within Morgan Stanley’s asset management platform, serving as a provider of private credit capital to companies that may seek flexible financing outside traditional bank lending channels. Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund plays a role in the direct lending market by financing businesses across a range of industries through floating-rate debt investments and other senior secured credit instruments.

CEO Mr. Michael Occi Jr. · United States