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MSDL Stock Forecast: Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 14 Aug 2026
$15
−0.71% on the day

The 7 Wall Street analysts covering Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund hold a median 12-month price target of $16 — +3.5% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 67 of 100 as at 15 Aug 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$1.3B
Ticker Nerd rank
67 / 100
Median analyst target
$16
Analysts covering
7
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+0.2%
1M
−0.4%
YTD
−0.4%
1Y
−1.5%
From 52W high
−5.0%
From 52W low
+17.1%
$13
$16
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

MSDL stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 15 Aug 2026
67 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Value
99
Issuance
84
Volatility
83
Accruals
74
Quality
54
Momentum
52
Size
42
Revisions
36
Growth
25

Value (99): The shares cost little relative to the profits and assets behind them — which can mean the market is too gloomy, or that the business really is in trouble.

Growth (25): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

MSDL stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MSDL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$13$14$15$16$17Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26MSDLHigh $17Median $16Low $14

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

What Wall Street says7 analysts
2 Buy5 Hold0 Sell
Low $14Median $16High $17

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +3.5% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
2 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$14 → $15
20 Apr 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—
16 Apr 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
13 Mar 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
13 Mar 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—
5 Mar 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsSector Perform—
2 Mar 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
2 Mar 2026Wells FargoMaintainsEqual-Weight—
7 Jan 2026Wells FargoDowngradeEqual-Weight—
26 Nov 2025RBC CapitalDowngradeSector Perform—
10 Nov 2025JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
10 Nov 2025Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
14 Oct 2025UBSMaintainsNeutral—
10 Oct 2025LUCID CAPITAL MARKETSInitiatesBuy—
6 Oct 2025Wells FargoUpgradeOverweight—
1 Oct 2025JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
10 Sept 2025RBC CapitalMaintainsOutperform—
14 Aug 2025Wells FargoMaintainsEqual-Weight—
16 July 2025UBSMaintainsNeutral—
22 May 2025RBC CapitalMaintainsOutperform—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. MSDL appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Estimates

MSDL analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−2.2%
Analysts raising
2
Analysts cutting
1
Fundamentals

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
22.4×

Cheaper than 35% of US stocks

Price / sales
3.5×

Cheaper than 37% of US stocks

Price / book
0.8×

Cheaper than 79% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
—
Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−10.8%

Higher than 15% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−78.0%

Higher than 5% of US stocks

Gross margin
—
Operating margin
80.0%

Higher than 99% of US stocks

Net margin
16.0%

Higher than 79% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
3.5%

Higher than 51% of US stocks

Return on assets
4.9%

Higher than 76% of US stocks

Dividend yield
11.6%

Higher than 92% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Peers

MSDL vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelAsset Management
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
MSDLMorgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund$1.3B
67
VRTSVirtus Investment Partners, Inc.$1.1B
46
ASSTStrive, Inc. (United States)$1.0B
20
PAXPatria Investments Ltd.$1.9B
50
RPCRidgepost Capital, Inc.$949.4M
47
TIPTTiptree, Inc.$672.2M
70
GCMGGCM Grosvenor, Inc.$2.8B
86

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest MSDL news & analysis

2 BDCs To Sell Before The Dividend Cuts Land

Seeking Alpha · 16 Aug 2026negative

The article discusses how most BDC players have cut dividends over the past 12 months, including supplemental payments, and suggests that most BDCs that have not yet cut are likely to do so soon, even among so-called blue-chip BDCs some investors view as durable income compounders.

Why it matters — As a BDC, MSDL watchers would be concerned about the article's suggestion that dividend cuts are likely across the sector, including for blue-chip BDCs, which could affect MSDL's income outlook.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending: New Results Just Showed More Problems

Seeking Alpha · 13 Aug 2026negative

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) reported Q2 2026 results that the author believes show worsening problems, including weaker dividend coverage, a further decline in NAV, and doubled non-accruals.

Why it matters — MSDL watchers would care because the results indicate deteriorating dividend coverage, falling net asset value, and worsening portfolio credit quality.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund Q2 Earnings Call Highlights

MarketBeat · 8 Aug 2026negative

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund reported second-quarter net investment income of $38.2 million, or $0.45 per share, down from $0.47 per share in the prior quarter. The decline reflects higher Capstone joint-venture contributions being offset by new non-accruals and increased financing costs.

Why it matters — A MSDL watcher would care because the quarter-over-quarter drop in net investment income and growth in non-accruals signal pressures on the fund's earnings and portfolio credit quality.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Seeking Alpha · 7 Aug 2026neutral

Seeking Alpha published the Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, covering the fund's quarterly earnings discussion with management.

Why it matters — MSDL watchers would turn to the transcript for management commentary and details from the fund's most recent quarterly earnings call.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Zacks Investment Research · 7 Aug 2026positive

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) reported Q2 earnings of $0.45 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.44 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.50 per share in the same period a year earlier.

Why it matters — MSDL watchers would note that the fund beat analyst earnings and revenue expectations for the quarter, even though earnings were lower than the prior-year period.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about MSDL stock

What is the MSDL stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 7 Wall Street analysts covering Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund have a median 12-month price target of $16, with estimates ranging from $14 to $17. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is MSDL stock a buy right now?

Of the 7 analysts covering Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund, 2 rate it a Buy, 5 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund 67 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 15 Aug 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank MSDL?

As at 15 Aug 2026, Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund ranks 67 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Value (99 of 100).

Will MSDL stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 7 analysts implies +3.5% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund 67 out of 100 as at 15 Aug 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the MSDL stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MSDL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $14 to $17 over the next 12 months.

How has MSDL stock performed over the past year?

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund returned -1.5% over the 12 months to 14 Aug 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund do?

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Corp. is a business development company specializing in direct lending.

What is the latest news on MSDL?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 16 Aug 2026): "2 BDCs To Sell Before The Dividend Cuts Land". The article discusses how most BDC players have cut dividends over the past 12 months, including supplemental payments, and suggests that most BDCs that have not yet cut are likely to do so soon, even among so-called blue-chip BDCs some investors view as durable income compounders.

Company

About Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Corp. is a business development company specializing in direct lending. Its primary function is to provide customized financing solutions to middle-market companies in the United States. As a part of Morgan Stanley's broader financial services operations, it focuses on offering fixed income and tailored credit solutions to businesses that may not have easy access to traditional bank loans. This approach supports the capital needs of firms across various sectors, including industrials, healthcare, and technology industries. By operating within the niche of direct lending, Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Corp. plays a critical role in bolstering the financial stability and growth potential of mid-sized enterprises. In the financial market context, it serves as a vital intermediary, bridging the gap between investors seeking stable returns and companies needing strategic financing. Its involvement in direct lending signifies its commitment to driving economic development by fostering entrepreneurship and supporting the expansion of middle-market businesses.

CEO Mr. Michael Occi Jr. · United States