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PAX Stock Forecast: Patria Investments Ltd. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 29 Oct 2026
$9.30
−0.53% on the day

The 6 Wall Street analysts covering Patria Investments Ltd. hold a median 12-month price target of $15 — +61.3% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 34 of 100 as at 29 Oct 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$1.5B
Ticker Nerd rank
34/ 100
Median analyst target
$15
Analysts covering
6
Revenue$97.1M+22.0% y/y
Operating income$31.7M
Net income$4.6M
Free cash flow$27.3M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 31 Mar 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−21.8%
1M
−7.6%
YTD
−39.2%
1Y
−33.1%
From 52W high
−45.1%
From 52W low
0.0%
$9
$17
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

PAX stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Patria Investments Ltd. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 29 Oct 2026
34/ 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Volatility
82
Quality
77
Value
77
Growth
52
Size
39
Revisions
38
Momentum
29
Issuance
22
Accruals
12

Volatility (82): The share price has been relatively steady.

Accruals (12): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.

Wall Street

PAX stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on PAX, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$8$10$12$14$16$18$20Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26PAXHigh $20Median $15Low $9

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says6 analysts
3 Buy2 Hold1 Sell
Low $9Median $15High $20

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +61.3% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
10 Sept 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$15 → $13
8 Apr 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
8 Apr 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$17 → $16
28 Jan 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy—
22 Oct 2024Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy—
14 June 2023JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
18 Apr 2023Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsOutperform—
5 Apr 2023B of A SecuritiesMaintainsNeutral—
15 Feb 2023Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy—
15 Feb 2023Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsOutperform—
7 Sept 2022B of A SecuritiesReinstatesNeutral$17
14 Dec 2021Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy—
21 May 2021Credit SuisseMaintainsOutperform—
21 May 2021Itau BBAInitiatesOutperform—
17 Feb 2021Goldman SachsInitiatesBuy—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

PAX appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.

  • Market Radar, every Monday: the week's biggest rank moves across ~4,600 US stocks, and the reason for each.
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Performance

PAX vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 29 Oct 2026, Patria Investments Ltd. returned −33.1% against +13.1% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

PAX vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
60708090100110120Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26PAXS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

PAX analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−0.7%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
1
Fundamentals

Patria Investments Ltd. (PAX) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
21.7×

Cheaper than 35% of US stocks

Price / sales
3.6×

Cheaper than 33% of US stocks

Price / book
2.7×

Cheaper than 34% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
9.6×

Cheaper than 39% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
34.9%

Higher than 80% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−16.8%

Higher than 22% of US stocks

Gross margin
80.5%

Higher than 91% of US stocks

Operating margin
28.6%

Higher than 86% of US stocks

Net margin
16.4%

Higher than 79% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
12.9%

Higher than 70% of US stocks

Return on assets
5.9%

Higher than 81% of US stocks

Dividend yield
7.0%

Higher than 95% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Patria Investments Ltd. (PAX) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Patria Investments Ltd. has a market value of $1.5B and an enterprise value of $1.8B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 31 Mar 2026: $399.2M. The latest quarter grew 34.9% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $78.6M, a 19.7% net margin.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 31 Mar 2026: $182.8M, after $11.4M of capital spending.

  • Patria Investments Ltd. spent $68.9M on share buybacks and $95.6M on dividends in the twelve months to 31 Mar 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 161.4M.

  • Trailing P/E: 21.7×; forward P/E: 6.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 6.96%, paying out 142% of earnings.

  • Patria Investments Ltd. employs 548 people — $729K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 31 Mar 2026 · market figures as at 29 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

PAX vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelAsset Management
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
PAXPatria Investments Ltd.$1.5B34
MSDLMorgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund$1.2B77
RPCRidgepost Capital, Inc.$1.0B49
GCMGGCM Grosvenor, Inc.$2.6B81
VRTSVirtus Investment Partners, Inc.$844.1M40
APAMArtisan Partners Asset Management, Inc.$2.9B93
BURBurford Capital Ltd.$764.6M15

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Patria Investments Ltd. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest PAX news & analysis

Patria Investments: Brazil Sold Off, But Most Of The Fees Are Not In Reais

Seeking Alpha · 27 Oct 2026neutral

Patria shares sold off sharply after Brazil’s election, though the article says most fee income is not tied to the real and costs are largely in local currency. Fee-earning AUM was $48.9 billion, with 44% exposed to soft currencies; real estate and certain carried interest are described as materially affected by FX moves.

Why it matters — PAX watchers may weigh the currency exposure against the article’s valuation and earnings observations, including its reported 7x multiple on LTM distributable earnings.

Patria Investments: Pink Tide, Red Chart, Surging Yields

Seeking Alpha · 23 Oct 2026positive

Seeking Alpha reports that Patria Investments has declined 24% year to date, while trading at 7.8x–8.45x 2026 fee-related earnings. The excerpt cites a target of 13% annual FRE growth through 2027, projected 2026 FRE of $1.42–$1.54 per share, and a current 5.5% dividend yield.

Why it matters — PAX watchers may note the reported share decline alongside the valuation, growth target, earnings projections, and dividend yield discussed in the article.

Patria Announces Third Quarter 2026 Investor Call

GlobeNewsWire · 21 Oct 2026neutral

Patria Investments announced it will release its third-quarter 2026 financial results on November 3, 2026, and host a public webcast conference call at 9:00 a.m. ET.

Why it matters — PAX watchers can note the scheduled date and time for the company’s third-quarter results and webcast.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about PAX stock

What is the PAX stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 6 Wall Street analysts covering Patria Investments Ltd. have a median 12-month price target of $15, with estimates ranging from $9 to $20. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is PAX stock a buy right now?

Of the 6 analysts covering Patria Investments Ltd., 3 rate it a Buy, 2 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Patria Investments Ltd. 34 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 29 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank PAX?

As at 29 Oct 2026, Patria Investments Ltd. ranks 34 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (82 of 100).

Will PAX stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 6 analysts implies +61.3% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Patria Investments Ltd. 34 out of 100 as at 29 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the PAX stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Patria Investments Ltd. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for PAX are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $9 to $20 over the next 12 months.

How has PAX stock performed over the past year?

Patria Investments Ltd. returned -33.1% over the 12 months to 29 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Patria Investments Ltd. do?

Patria Investments Limited Class A Common Shares represent equity in Patria Investments Limited, a global alternative asset management firm. Patria Investments Limited focuses on managing private equity, infrastructure, real estate, and credit strategies, serving institutional clients and investors across multiple markets.

What is the latest news on PAX?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 27 Oct 2026): "Patria Investments: Brazil Sold Off, But Most Of The Fees Are Not In Reais". Patria shares sold off sharply after Brazil’s election, though the article says most fee income is not tied to the real and costs are largely in local currency. Fee-earning AUM was $48.9 billion, with 44% exposed to soft currencies; real estate and certain carried interest are described as materially affected by FX moves.

Company

About Patria Investments Ltd.

Patria Investments Limited Class A Common Shares represent equity in Patria Investments Limited, a global alternative asset management firm. Patria Investments Limited focuses on managing private equity, infrastructure, real estate, and credit strategies, serving institutional clients and investors across multiple markets. The company operates as an asset manager that allocates capital, structures investment vehicles, and provides exposure to private market opportunities through a range of funds and mandates. Its business spans investment origination, portfolio management, and advisory services, with activities centered on private markets and alternative assets. Patria Investments Limited Class A Common Shares provide investors with ownership in a company whose core role is to connect capital with specialized investment strategies in sectors that are often less accessible through traditional public market instruments.

CEO Mr. Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpcao Saigh · 548 employees · United States · https://www.patria.com