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MSM Stock Forecast: MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 2 Oct 2026
$130
+1.25% on the day

The 10 Wall Street analysts covering MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $140 — +7.6% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 89 of 100 as at 2 Oct 2026 — inside the top quartile. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.

Market cap
$7.3B
Ticker Nerd rank
89 / 100
Median analyst target
$140
Analysts covering
10
Revenue$1.0B+7.8% y/y
Operating income$106.7M
Net income$78.7M
Free cash flow$80.9M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 31 May 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+7.3%
1M
+11.7%
YTD
+58.9%
1Y
+46.8%
From 52W high
0.0%
From 52W low
+64.9%
$79
$130
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

MSM stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 2 Oct 2026
89 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Volatility
96
Momentum
94
Issuance
81
Quality
80
Revisions
71
Growth
66
Value
57
Accruals
56
Size
18

Volatility (96): The share price has been relatively steady.

Accruals (56): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Size (18): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

MSM stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MSM, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$60$80$100$120$140$160Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26MSMHigh $155Median $140Low $67

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says10 analysts
3 Buy6 Hold1 Sell
Low $67Median $140High $155

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +7.6% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
15 Sept 2026Wolfe ResearchAssumesPeer Perform—
13 July 2026Rothschild & CoInitiatesBuy$155
13 July 2026Rothschild & CoInitiatesBuy—
2 July 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
2 July 2026KeybancMaintainsOverweight—
16 June 2026DA DavidsonInitiatesBuy—
2 June 2026KeybancMaintainsOverweight—
27 Apr 2026KeybancUpgradeOverweight—
6 Feb 2026JP MorganDowngradeNeutral—
24 Oct 2025JP MorganMaintainsOverweight—
15 Oct 2025JP MorganMaintainsOverweight—
8 Oct 2025Wolfe ResearchDowngradePeer Perform—
2 July 2025BairdMaintainsNeutral—
2 July 2025Loop CapitalMaintainsHold—
2 July 2025Stephens & Co.MaintainsEqual-Weight—
27 May 2025JP MorganUpgradeOverweight—
4 Apr 2025BairdMaintainsNeutral—
4 Apr 2025Loop CapitalMaintainsHold—
16 Jan 2025Wolfe ResearchInitiatesOutperform—
4 Dec 2024Stephens & Co.DowngradeEqual-Weight—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. MSM appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

MSM vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 2 Oct 2026, MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. returned +46.8% against +16.2% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

MSM vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
90100110120130140150Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26MSMS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

MSM analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+6.0%
Analysts raising
7
Analysts cutting
0
Fundamentals

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
31.4×

Cheaper than 24% of US stocks

Price / sales
1.9×

Cheaper than 53% of US stocks

Price / book
5.1×

Cheaper than 19% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
17.4×

Cheaper than 18% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
7.8%

Higher than 46% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
41.4%

Higher than 72% of US stocks

Gross margin
41.1%

Higher than 51% of US stocks

Operating margin
10.2%

Higher than 64% of US stocks

Net margin
5.9%

Higher than 62% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
16.3%

Higher than 76% of US stocks

Return on assets
8.7%

Higher than 90% of US stocks

Dividend yield
2.7%

Higher than 56% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. has a market value of $7.3B and an enterprise value of $7.7B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 31 May 2026: $3.9B. The latest quarter grew 7.8% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $228.1M, a 5.8% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $4.14.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 31 May 2026: $219.9M, after $85.9M of capital spending.

  • MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. spent $14.1M on share buybacks and $193.2M on dividends in the twelve months to 31 May 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 55.8M.

  • Trailing P/E: 31.4×; forward P/E: 23.9× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 2.67%, paying out 84% of earnings.

  • MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. employs 7,077 people — $552K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 31 May 2026 · market figures as at 3 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

MSM vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelIndustrial Distribution
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
MSMMSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.$7.3B
89
CNMCore & Main, Inc.$8.1B
49
POOLPool Corp.$6.0B
54
XMTRXometry, Inc.$5.7B
61
WSOWatsco, Inc.$12.1B
38
QXOQXO, Inc.$12.5B
8
AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc.$13.0B
95

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest MSM news & analysis

MSC Industrial Direct: Why The Upside Is Insufficient Given The Price

Seeking Alpha · 2 Oct 2026negative

A Seeking Alpha analysis discusses MSC Industrial Direct's recent operational turnaround, citing 7.8% revenue growth and 32% adjusted EPS growth in 3Q26, while noting cyclicality and margin risks. The article concludes that MSM's upside is insufficient given its price, as peer comparison shows it less qualitative than Fastenal or Grainger with lower long-term growth and margins.

Why it matters — MSM watchers would care because the analysis argues the stock's valuation offers insufficient upside relative to its risks and weaker positioning against key industrial distribution peers.

5 Industrial Distributors With a Competitive Advantage Hiding in Plain Sight

24/7 Wall Street · 24 Sept 2026positive

24/7 Wall Street published a piece identifying five industrial distributors that hold a competitive advantage largely hidden in plain sight. The article notes that some distributors are so deeply integrated into customers' factories and procurement systems that even cheaper rivals pose little threat.

Why it matters — MSM watchers would care because the piece highlights how deeply embedded distribution relationships and integration with customer systems can protect an industrial distributor like MSC from price-based competition.

MSC Industrial Supply Co. To Webcast Review of Fiscal 2026 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results

Accesswire · 17 Sept 2026neutral

MSC Industrial Supply Co. announced that its conference call reviewing fiscal year 2026 fourth quarter and full year results, as well as current operations, will be broadcast online live on Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. The company is a North American distributor of Metalworking and MRO products and services.

Why it matters — The webcast signals the scheduled release of MSM's fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results, which MSM watchers would follow for the company's latest operational and financial update.

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) Presents at Jefferies Global Industrials Conference 2026 Transcript

Seeking Alpha · 9 Sept 2026neutral

MSC Industrial Direct presented at the Jefferies Global Industrials Conference 2026, with a transcript of the presentation made available via Seeking Alpha. The item consists of the conference presentation transcript for the company.

Why it matters — MSM watchers would care because the presentation offers direct insight into how the company's management communicates its strategy and outlook to investors at a major industry conference.

MSC Industrial Supply Co. Has Named Rob Kuhns Chief Financial Officer

Accesswire · 8 Sept 2026positive

MSC Industrial Supply Co. announced on September 8, 2026, that it has named Rob Kuhns to the role of Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The company is a North American distributor of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) products and services.

Why it matters — A change in the CFO role is a significant leadership development that MSM watchers would want to track for its potential effect on the company's financial stewardship.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about MSM stock

What is the MSM stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 10 Wall Street analysts covering MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $140, with estimates ranging from $67 to $155. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is MSM stock a buy right now?

Of the 10 analysts covering MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc., 3 rate it a Buy, 6 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. 89 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 2 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank MSM?

As at 2 Oct 2026, MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. ranks 89 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (96 of 100).

Will MSM stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 10 analysts implies +7.6% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. 89 out of 100 as at 2 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the MSM stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MSM are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $67 to $155 over the next 12 months.

How has MSM stock performed over the past year?

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. returned +46.8% over the 12 months to 2 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. do?

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Class A is an industrial distribution company focused on metalworking and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products and services.

What is the latest news on MSM?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 2 Oct 2026): "MSC Industrial Direct: Why The Upside Is Insufficient Given The Price". A Seeking Alpha analysis discusses MSC Industrial Direct's recent operational turnaround, citing 7.8% revenue growth and 32% adjusted EPS growth in 3Q26, while noting cyclicality and margin risks. The article concludes that MSM's upside is insufficient given its price, as peer comparison shows it less qualitative than Fastenal or Grainger with lower long-term growth and margins.

Company

About MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Class A is an industrial distribution company focused on metalworking and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products and services. MSC Industrial Direct serves manufacturers and other industrial customers with a broad catalog that includes cutting tools, measuring instruments, tooling components, fasteners, abrasives, hand and power tools, safety supplies, plumbing items, materials handling products, power transmission components, and electrical supplies. The company also supports customers with procurement and inventory management solutions designed to improve supply availability and streamline replenishment. MSC Industrial Direct plays an important role in keeping production environments supplied with the consumables and equipment needed for ongoing operations. Headquartered in Melville, New York, MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. operates across North America and other international markets.

CEO Ms. Martina McIsaac · 7,077 employees · United States · https://www.mscdirect.com