PAYXTechnology · Software - ApplicationThe 19 Wall Street analysts covering Paychex, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $111 — -6.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 76 of 100 as at 22 Oct 2026 — inside the top quartile. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Paychex, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Volatility (100): The share price has been relatively steady.
Momentum (48): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Size (6): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on PAYX, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −6.0% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 7 moved their price target up and 5 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sept 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Neutral | $125 → $110 |
| 28 Sept 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Underweight | $112 → $96 |
| 24 Sept 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Market Perform | $118 → $113 |
| 24 Sept 2026 | JP Morgan | Upgrade | Neutral | $105 → $115 |
| 24 Sept 2026 | RBC Capital | Reiterates | Sector Perform | $130 |
| 24 Sept 2026 | Stifel | Maintains | Hold | $130 → $112 |
| 24 Sept 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | $125 → $115 |
| 16 Sept 2026 | Wolfe Research | Upgrade | Peer Perform | — |
| 16 Sept 2026 | Wolfe Research | Upgrade | Peer Perform | — |
| 11 Sept 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Hold | — |
| 11 Sept 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Hold | $98 → $117 |
| 9 Sept 2026 | Stifel | Maintains | Hold | $110 → $130 |
| 9 Sept 2026 | Stifel | Maintains | Hold | — |
| 9 Sept 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Underweight | $95 → $111 |
| 9 Sept 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Underweight | — |
| 13 Aug 2026 | Jefferies | Maintains | Hold | — |
| 13 Aug 2026 | Jefferies | Maintains | Hold | $105 → $120 |
| 30 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 30 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $140 → $150 |
| 22 July 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | $105 → $115 |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
PAYX appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 23 Oct 2026, Paychex, Inc. returned −1.3% against +14.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 33% of US stocks
Cheaper than 20% of US stocks
Cheaper than 8% of US stocks
Cheaper than 25% of US stocks
Higher than 42% of US stocks
Higher than 50% of US stocks
Higher than 86% of US stocks
Higher than 91% of US stocks
Higher than 87% of US stocks
Higher than 93% of US stocks
Higher than 92% of US stocks
Higher than 91% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Paychex, Inc. has a market value of $40.0B and an enterprise value of $43.7B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 31 May 2026: $6.5B. The latest quarter grew 5.9% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $1.8B, a 27.0% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $4.89.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 31 May 2026: $2.3B, after $234.9M of capital spending.
Paychex, Inc. spent $611.0M on share buybacks and $1.6B on dividends in the twelve months to 31 May 2026.
Trailing P/E: 22.3×; forward P/E: 17.6× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 4.23%, paying out 90% of earnings.
Paychex, Inc. employs 17,600 people — $370K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Paychex, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
The article notes that Paychex reported earnings 30 days ago and that its stock is up 17% since the report. Its headline asks whether the rise can continue.
Why it matters — PAYX watchers may be interested in the stock’s move since earnings and the article’s focus on what could come next.
A 24/7 Wall Street article discusses three dividend stocks that could provide quarterly income for retirement expenses without selling shares. The provided excerpt does not identify the stocks or give further details.
Why it matters — The retirement-income theme may interest PAYX watchers, but the excerpt does not establish whether Paychex is among the stocks discussed.
The article says four dividend stocks have ex-dividend dates arriving this week and warns that buying even one day too late means missing the quarterly payment. The excerpt does not identify whether Paychex is among the four stocks.
Why it matters — PAYX watchers may note the dividend-timing topic, but the excerpt provides no specific information about Paychex or its ex-dividend date.
A 24/7 Wall Street article highlights three established businesses with long histories of dividend payments, emphasizing that payroll, factory supplies and store restocking remain necessary across economic conditions.
Why it matters — The article’s reference to payroll makes it relevant to Paychex watchers, though the excerpt does not identify Paychex as one of the three businesses.
Paychex has increased its dividend every year since 2020, and its cash flow still supports the payout. However, the payout structure suggests the period of outsized dividend increases may be ending.
Why it matters — PAYX watchers may want to note that dividend growth could moderate even as the current payout remains supported by cash flow.
The 19 Wall Street analysts covering Paychex, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $111, with estimates ranging from $96 to $150. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 19 analysts covering Paychex, Inc., 2 rate it a Buy, 15 a Hold and 2 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Paychex, Inc. 76 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 22 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 22 Oct 2026, Paychex, Inc. ranks 76 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (100 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 19 analysts implies -6.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Paychex, Inc. 76 out of 100 as at 22 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Paychex, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for PAYX are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $96 to $150 over the next 12 months.
Paychex, Inc. returned -1.3% over the 12 months to 23 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Paychex Inc. is a human capital management company that provides payroll, HR, benefits, and insurance solutions for small- and medium-sized businesses.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 23 Oct 2026): "Paychex (PAYX) Up 17% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?". The article notes that Paychex reported earnings 30 days ago and that its stock is up 17% since the report. Its headline asks whether the rise can continue.
Paychex Inc. is a human capital management company that provides payroll, HR, benefits, and insurance solutions for small- and medium-sized businesses. The company helps organizations manage core workforce functions through integrated technology and advisory services, including payroll processing, tax administration, time and attendance, employee onboarding, retirement plan support, and benefits administration. Paychex also offers outsourced HR and professional employer organization services, giving clients access to tools and expertise that streamline employee management and compliance tasks. Its product suite includes digital platforms such as Paychex Flex and SurePayroll, which are designed to support businesses with scalable payroll and workforce management capabilities. Paychex serves a broad range of industries and plays an important role in the business services market by helping employers simplify administration and focus on day-to-day operations.
CEO Mr. John B. Gibson Jr. · 17,600 employees · United States · https://www.paychex.com
