SDHCReal Estate · Real Estate - DevelopmentThe 6 Wall Street analysts covering Smith Douglas Homes Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $14 — +43.1% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 28 of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Smith Douglas Homes Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Issuance (88): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.
Momentum (13): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on SDHC, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +43.1% from it.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2026 | Zelman & Assoc | Initiates | Neutral | $14 |
| 24 Mar 2026 | Citizens | Initiates | Market Perform | — |
| 16 Mar 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 12 Mar 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 21 Nov 2025 | JP Morgan | Assumes | Neutral | $17 |
| 7 Nov 2025 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | — |
| 7 Nov 2025 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 10 Oct 2025 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Underperform | — |
| 18 Sept 2025 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Underperform | — |
| 21 May 2025 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 20 May 2025 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | — |
| 14 Apr 2025 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 13 Mar 2025 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 13 Jan 2025 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 13 Dec 2024 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 25 Nov 2024 | JP Morgan | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 7 Oct 2024 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 19 Sept 2024 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 15 Aug 2024 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 15 Aug 2024 | RBC Capital | Reiterates | Sector Perform | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. SDHC appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 14 Oct 2026, Smith Douglas Homes Corp. returned −39.6% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 49% of US stocks
Cheaper than 96% of US stocks
Cheaper than 70% of US stocks
Cheaper than 37% of US stocks
Higher than 71% of US stocks
Higher than 4% of US stocks
Higher than 18% of US stocks
Higher than 49% of US stocks
Higher than 48% of US stocks
Higher than 62% of US stocks
Higher than 76% of US stocks
Higher than 1% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. has a market value of $82.1M and an enterprise value of $490.1M.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.0B. The latest quarter grew 21.9% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $39.1M, a 3.9% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $0.72.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $33.9M.
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. spent $10.8M on share buybacks and $13.7M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 13.6×; forward P/E: 22.6× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. employs 510 people — $2.0M of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Smith Douglas Homes Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Smith Douglas Homes reported higher second-quarter home closings, revenue, and net new orders. However, continued affordability pressures and increased buyer incentives weighed on margins and profitability.
Why it matters — SDHC watchers would care because the quarter shows top-line growth balanced against affordability-driven margin pressure, offering a fuller picture of the company's operating conditions.
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) held its Q2 2026 earnings call, and Seeking Alpha published the transcript of the event covering the company's quarterly results and management commentary.
Why it matters — The earnings call transcript provides SDHC watchers with direct insight into the company's quarterly performance and management's outlook.
Smith Douglas Homes reported Q2 2026 results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. Compared to Q2 2025, home closings rose 25% to 839, home closing revenue rose 22% to $273.0 million, and net new home orders rose 32% to 970, while home closing gross margin fell to 17.6% from 23.2% and pretax income was $1.9 million, which includes $7.6.
Why it matters — The report shows strong growth in closings, revenue, and orders for SDHC, but a significant decline in gross margin and low pretax income indicates compressed profitability that watchers would want to monitor.
The 6 Wall Street analysts covering Smith Douglas Homes Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $14, with estimates ranging from $10 to $15. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 6 analysts covering Smith Douglas Homes Corp., 0 rate it a Buy, 5 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Smith Douglas Homes Corp. 28 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 14 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 14 Oct 2026, Smith Douglas Homes Corp. ranks 28 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (88 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 6 analysts implies +43.1% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Smith Douglas Homes Corp. 28 out of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Smith Douglas Homes Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for SDHC are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $10 to $15 over the next 12 months.
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. returned -39.6% over the 12 months to 14 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. Class A Common Stock represents ownership in Smith Douglas Homes Corp., a homebuilding company focused on the design, construction, and sale of single-family homes.
The most recent item we track (MarketBeat, 9 Aug 2026): "Smith Douglas Homes Q2 Earnings Call Highlights". Smith Douglas Homes reported higher second-quarter home closings, revenue, and net new orders. However, continued affordability pressures and increased buyer incentives weighed on margins and profitability.
Smith Douglas Homes Corp. Class A Common Stock represents ownership in Smith Douglas Homes Corp., a homebuilding company focused on the design, construction, and sale of single-family homes. Smith Douglas Homes serves homebuyers across the Southeast and Central regions of the United States through a portfolio that includes entry-level homes, move-up options, and communities tailored to a range of household needs. The company also provides related closing, escrow, and title insurance services, supporting customers through the homebuying process. Its business is centered on residential development and construction, making it a notable participant in the U.S. housing market. Smith Douglas Homes Corp. is headquartered in Woodstock, Georgia.
CEO Mr. Gregory S. Bennett · 510 employees · United States · https://www.smithdouglas.com
