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TPLTPLEnergy · Oil & Gas E&P

TPL Stock Forecast: Texas Pacific Land Corp. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 21 Aug 2026
$384
+3.79% on the day

The 2 Wall Street analysts covering Texas Pacific Land Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $442 — +15.2% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 61 of 100 as at 22 Aug 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$26.5B
Ticker Nerd rank
61 / 100
Median analyst target
$442
Analysts covering
2
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+7.0%
1M
−8.4%
YTD
+33.9%
1Y
+32.5%
From 52W high
−28.8%
From 52W low
+40.6%
$273
$539
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

TPL stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Texas Pacific Land Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 22 Aug 2026
61 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Volatility
90
Quality
84
Growth
74
Value
66
Revisions
65
Momentum
63
Issuance
56
Accruals
12
Size
8

Volatility (90): The share price has been relatively steady.

Accruals (12): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Size (8): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

TPL stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on TPL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$200$300$400$500$600$700Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26TPLHigh $639Median $442Low $245

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

What Wall Street says2 analysts
1 Buy0 Hold1 Sell
Low $245Median $442High $639

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +15.2% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 2 moved their price target up and 2 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
23 Feb 2026KeybancMaintainsOverweight$350 → $639
2 Dec 2025KeybancInitiatesOverweight—
12 Aug 2024BWS FinancialMaintainsBuy—
10 May 2024BWS FinancialMaintainsBuy—
2 Apr 2024BWS FinancialMaintainsBuy—
23 Jan 2024StifelMaintainsHold—
30 Nov 2023StifelMaintainsHold—
24 July 2023StifelMaintainsHold$1,378 → $1,371
22 May 2023StifelMaintainsHold—
27 Apr 2023StifelMaintainsHold—
12 Apr 2023StifelMaintainsHold—
29 Sept 2021Credit SuisseInitiatesUnderperform—
10 May 2021BWS FinancialMaintainsBuy—
1 Apr 2021StifelDowngradeHold—
1 Mar 2021BWS FinancialMaintainsBuy—
12 Jan 2021BWS FinancialInitiatesBuy—
6 Aug 2020StifelMaintainsBuy$751 → $679
31 Jan 2020StifelMaintainsBuy$937 → $947
31 Jan 2020Stifel NicolausMaintainsBuy—
9 Jan 2020StifelInitiatesBuy—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. TPL appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Estimates

TPL analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−4.3%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
2
Fundamentals

Texas Pacific Land Corp. (TPL) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
49.0×

Cheaper than 15% of US stocks

Price / sales
29.5×

Cheaper than 8% of US stocks

Price / book
17.0×

Cheaper than 6% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
35.4×

Cheaper than 8% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
31.2%

Higher than 79% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
32.5%

Higher than 68% of US stocks

Gross margin
88.5%

Higher than 96% of US stocks

Operating margin
78.2%

Higher than 99% of US stocks

Net margin
60.3%

Higher than 97% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
36.6%

Higher than 90% of US stocks

Return on assets
25.8%

Higher than 99% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.6%

Higher than 12% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Peers

TPL vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelOil & Gas E&P
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
TPLTexas Pacific Land Corp.$26.5B
61
EXEExpand Energy Corp.$22.9B
85
EQTEQT Corp.$33.6B
55
PRPermian Resources Corp.$20.0B
80
APAAPA Corp.$15.3B
92
DVNDevon Energy Corp.$56.6B
44
ARAntero Resources Corp.$11.7B
49

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Texas Pacific Land Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest TPL news & analysis

Buy Texas Pacific Land - They're Not Making It Any More

Seeking Alpha · 20 Aug 2026positive

Texas Pacific Land Corporation reported record Q2 2026 revenue, net income, and free cash flow, supported by robust oil, gas, and water royalties. Separately, a recent Texas moratorium on new data center grid connections could affect up to 20% of the U.S. pipeline, potentially impacting demand for land and infrastructure.

Why it matters — A TPL watcher would care because the company's diversification across Midland-region energy royalties and water/desalination operations links its outlook to data-center growth, making the Texas moratorium a risk worth monitoring alongside its record results.

Texas Pacific Land: Priced For Perfection

Seeking Alpha · 11 Aug 2026negative

Texas Pacific Land Corp. reported a record quarter, driven by a transitory oil price spike rather than sustainable volume growth. The company maintains industry-leading margins, free cash flow, and return metrics, but its valuation is elevated, and it remains unhedged, oil-price-sensitive, and geographically concentrated in the Permian Basin.

Why it matters — A TPL watcher would care because the source warns that the record results were fueled by a temporary oil price spike and that the company's elevated valuation and unhedged, Permian-concentrated exposure amplify both upside and downside risks.

Texas Pacific Land Q2 Earnings Call Highlights

MarketBeat · 9 Aug 2026positive

Texas Pacific Land Corp. reported record quarterly revenue, net income and free cash flow for the second quarter of 2026, driven by higher oil and gas royalty production, produced-water royalty volumes, and surface-related revenue.

Why it matters — A TPL watcher would care because record revenue, net income, and free cash flow indicate strong performance across its royalty and surface-related segments.

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Seeking Alpha · 6 Aug 2026neutral

Seeking Alpha published the transcript of Texas Pacific Land Corporation's Q2 2026 earnings call. The item identifies the event and source but contains no details on financial results or management commentary.

Why it matters — The availability of the Q2 2026 earnings call transcript gives TPL watchers direct access to management's discussion of the company's latest quarterly performance.

Texas Pacific (TPL) Tops Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Zacks Investment Research · 5 Aug 2026positive

Texas Pacific Land Corp. reported Q2 earnings of $2.23 per share, above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.14 per share and higher than the $1.68 per share reported a year ago. The company's results topped both earnings and revenue estimates for the quarter, according to the report.

Why it matters — For TPL watchers, the quarter shows results coming in ahead of analyst expectations and above the prior-year period, which signals improving underlying performance.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about TPL stock

What is the TPL stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 2 Wall Street analysts covering Texas Pacific Land Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $442, with estimates ranging from $245 to $639. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is TPL stock a buy right now?

Of the 2 analysts covering Texas Pacific Land Corp., 1 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Texas Pacific Land Corp. 61 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 22 Aug 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank TPL?

As at 22 Aug 2026, Texas Pacific Land Corp. ranks 61 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (90 of 100).

Will TPL stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 2 analysts implies +15.2% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Texas Pacific Land Corp. 61 out of 100 as at 22 Aug 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the TPL stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Texas Pacific Land Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for TPL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $245 to $639 over the next 12 months.

How has TPL stock performed over the past year?

Texas Pacific Land Corp. returned +32.5% over the 12 months to 21 Aug 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Texas Pacific Land Corp. do?

Texas Pacific Land Corporation is a U.S.-based real estate operating and land management company focused on monetizing extensive land and resource holdings in West Texas. Headquartered in Dallas, Texas, it is among the largest private landowners in the state, with significant acreage and royalty interests concentrated in the Permian Basin, a major oil and gas producing region.

What is the latest news on TPL?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 20 Aug 2026): "Buy Texas Pacific Land - They're Not Making It Any More". Texas Pacific Land Corporation reported record Q2 2026 revenue, net income, and free cash flow, supported by robust oil, gas, and water royalties. Separately, a recent Texas moratorium on new data center grid connections could affect up to 20% of the U.S. pipeline, potentially impacting demand for land and infrastructure.

Company

About Texas Pacific Land Corp.

Texas Pacific Land Corporation is a U.S.-based real estate operating and land management company focused on monetizing extensive land and resource holdings in West Texas. Headquartered in Dallas, Texas, it is among the largest private landowners in the state, with significant acreage and royalty interests concentrated in the Permian Basin, a major oil and gas producing region. The company operates primarily through two business segments: Land and Resource Management, and Water Services and Operations. Its activities include managing surface land rights, granting easements and leases, and collecting oil and gas royalties tied to third-party exploration and production. In addition, Texas Pacific Land Corporation provides water sourcing, transportation, treatment, and related services to energy companies, supporting drilling and production activity. By integrating land stewardship with water infrastructure and royalty interests, the company plays a notable role in the energy value chain and broader resource management market in West Texas. Founded in 1888 and headquartered in Dallas, it operates today as a specialized platform at the intersection of land ownership, energy royalties, and industrial water services.

CEO Mr. Tyler Glover · 114 employees · United States · https://www.texaspacific.com