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TPLTPLEnergy · Oil & Gas E&P

TPL Stock Forecast: Texas Pacific Land Corp. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 11 Sept 2026
$369
+0.82% on the day

The 2 Wall Street analysts covering Texas Pacific Land Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $442 — +19.8% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 60 of 100 as at 12 Sept 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$25.5B
Ticker Nerd rank
60 / 100
Median analyst target
$442
Analysts covering
2
Revenue$246.1M+31.2% y/y
Operating income$191.8M
Net income$153.9M
Free cash flow$151.0M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+0.7%
1M
+1.3%
YTD
+29.1%
1Y
+19.1%
From 52W high
−31.4%
From 52W low
+35.5%
$272
$538
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

TPL stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Texas Pacific Land Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 12 Sept 2026
60 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Volatility
90
Quality
84
Growth
75
Value
67
Revisions
64
Momentum
58
Issuance
56
Accruals
13
Size
9

Volatility (90): The share price has been relatively steady.

Accruals (13): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Size (9): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

TPL stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on TPL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$200$300$400$500$600$700Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26TPLHigh $639Median $442Low $245

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says2 analysts
1 Buy0 Hold1 Sell
Low $245Median $442High $639

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +19.8% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 2 moved their price target up and 2 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
23 Feb 2026KeybancMaintainsOverweight$350 → $639
2 Dec 2025KeybancInitiatesOverweight—
12 Aug 2024BWS FinancialMaintainsBuy—
10 May 2024BWS FinancialMaintainsBuy—
2 Apr 2024BWS FinancialMaintainsBuy—
23 Jan 2024StifelMaintainsHold—
30 Nov 2023StifelMaintainsHold—
24 July 2023StifelMaintainsHold$1,378 → $1,371
22 May 2023StifelMaintainsHold—
27 Apr 2023StifelMaintainsHold—
12 Apr 2023StifelMaintainsHold—
29 Sept 2021Credit SuisseInitiatesUnderperform—
10 May 2021BWS FinancialMaintainsBuy—
1 Apr 2021StifelDowngradeHold—
1 Mar 2021BWS FinancialMaintainsBuy—
12 Jan 2021BWS FinancialInitiatesBuy—
6 Aug 2020StifelMaintainsBuy$751 → $679
31 Jan 2020StifelMaintainsBuy$937 → $947
31 Jan 2020Stifel NicolausMaintainsBuy—
9 Jan 2020StifelInitiatesBuy—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. TPL appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

TPL vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 11 Sept 2026, Texas Pacific Land Corp. returned +19.1% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

TPL vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
80100120140160180Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26TPLS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

TPL analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−3.3%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
2
Fundamentals

Texas Pacific Land Corp. (TPL) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
47.2×

Cheaper than 15% of US stocks

Price / sales
28.4×

Cheaper than 7% of US stocks

Price / book
15.2×

Cheaper than 6% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
34.0×

Cheaper than 7% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
31.2%

Higher than 79% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
32.5%

Higher than 67% of US stocks

Gross margin
88.5%

Higher than 96% of US stocks

Operating margin
78.2%

Higher than 99% of US stocks

Net margin
60.3%

Higher than 97% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
36.6%

Higher than 90% of US stocks

Return on assets
25.8%

Higher than 99% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.7%

Higher than 13% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Texas Pacific Land Corp. (TPL) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Texas Pacific Land Corp. has a market value of $25.5B and an enterprise value of $25.2B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $897.5M. The latest quarter grew 31.2% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $541.4M, a 60.3% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $7.85.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $76.0M.

  • Texas Pacific Land Corp. spent $8.3M on share buybacks and $156.8M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 69.0M.

  • Trailing P/E: 47.2×; forward P/E: 5.0× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.65%, paying out 29% of earnings.

  • Texas Pacific Land Corp. employs 114 people — $7.9M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 13 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

TPL vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelOil & Gas E&P
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
TPLTexas Pacific Land Corp.$25.5B
60
EXEExpand Energy Corp.$22.6B
86
PRPermian Resources Corp.$20.0B
78
EQTEQT Corp.$33.8B
52
APAAPA Corp.$15.8B
93
ARAntero Resources Corp.$11.9B
48
FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.$57.4B
67

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Texas Pacific Land Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest TPL news & analysis

5 Stocks I Want If Oil Hits $100

Seeking Alpha · 6 Sept 2026positive

A Seeking Alpha article identifies energy as the author's top sector for 2026, citing structural underweighting in the S&P 500 and long-term rotation potential. It names TPL among its preferred energy picks, alongside VNOM, CNQ, CVX, and WBI, praising them for high margins, inflation protection, and resilience across oil price scenarios.

Why it matters — TPL watchers would care because the piece highlights the company as a preferred energy holding with high margins and inflation protection across various oil price environments.

40% Of My Portfolio Is In Just 3 Stocks

Seeking Alpha · 4 Sept 2026positive

An investor disclosed that 40% of their portfolio is concentrated in just three stocks, including Texas Pacific Land (TPL), citing the company's exposure to Permian water and surface rights as well as emerging AI data center trends.

Why it matters — The article highlights TPL's potential shift from traditional energy royalties to secular growth in water management and data center cash flows, though it notes execution risks remain.

Tethys Petroleum Press Release (TPL): Interim Results and Corporate Update

Newsfile Corp · 24 Aug 2026neutral

Tethys Petroleum Limited (TSXV: TPL) announced it filed its interim results for the three months ended June 30, 2026 with Canadian securities regulatory authorities, comprising unaudited financial statements, Management's Discussion and Analysis, and other required forms. The documents are available via SEDAR+ and on the company's website.

Why it matters — The filing provides updated interim financial information for the period ended June 30, 2026, which is relevant to investors tracking the company's reporting.

Buy Texas Pacific Land - They're Not Making It Any More

Seeking Alpha · 20 Aug 2026positive

Texas Pacific Land Corporation reported record Q2 2026 revenue, net income, and free cash flow, supported by robust oil, gas, and water royalties. Separately, a recent Texas moratorium on new data center grid connections could affect up to 20% of the U.S. pipeline, potentially impacting demand for land and infrastructure.

Why it matters — A TPL watcher would care because the company's diversification across Midland-region energy royalties and water/desalination operations links its outlook to data-center growth, making the Texas moratorium a risk worth monitoring alongside its record results.

Texas Pacific Land: Priced For Perfection

Seeking Alpha · 11 Aug 2026negative

Texas Pacific Land Corp. reported a record quarter, driven by a transitory oil price spike rather than sustainable volume growth. The company maintains industry-leading margins, free cash flow, and return metrics, but its valuation is elevated, and it remains unhedged, oil-price-sensitive, and geographically concentrated in the Permian Basin.

Why it matters — A TPL watcher would care because the source warns that the record results were fueled by a temporary oil price spike and that the company's elevated valuation and unhedged, Permian-concentrated exposure amplify both upside and downside risks.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about TPL stock

What is the TPL stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 2 Wall Street analysts covering Texas Pacific Land Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $442, with estimates ranging from $245 to $639. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is TPL stock a buy right now?

Of the 2 analysts covering Texas Pacific Land Corp., 1 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Texas Pacific Land Corp. 60 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 12 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank TPL?

As at 12 Sept 2026, Texas Pacific Land Corp. ranks 60 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (90 of 100).

Will TPL stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 2 analysts implies +19.8% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Texas Pacific Land Corp. 60 out of 100 as at 12 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the TPL stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Texas Pacific Land Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for TPL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $245 to $639 over the next 12 months.

How has TPL stock performed over the past year?

Texas Pacific Land Corp. returned +19.1% over the 12 months to 11 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Texas Pacific Land Corp. do?

Texas Pacific Land Corporation is a land and resource management company focused on owning and operating extensive surface acreage and mineral interests in West Texas. Texas Pacific Land Corporation generates income through oil and gas royalty interests, land leases, easements, commercial agreements, and water-related services tied to energy development in the Permian Basin.

What is the latest news on TPL?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 6 Sept 2026): "5 Stocks I Want If Oil Hits $100". A Seeking Alpha article identifies energy as the author's top sector for 2026, citing structural underweighting in the S&P 500 and long-term rotation potential. It names TPL among its preferred energy picks, alongside VNOM, CNQ, CVX, and WBI, praising them for high margins, inflation protection, and resilience across oil price scenarios.

Company

About Texas Pacific Land Corp.

Texas Pacific Land Corporation is a land and resource management company focused on owning and operating extensive surface acreage and mineral interests in West Texas. Texas Pacific Land Corporation generates income through oil and gas royalty interests, land leases, easements, commercial agreements, and water-related services tied to energy development in the Permian Basin. Its operations are centered on managing land use across infrastructure, utility, and industrial activities, while also providing sourced water, produced water handling, and saltwater disposal services. The company serves as a key landholder in one of the most active U.S. energy-producing regions, giving it a distinctive role in the broader oilfield services and royalty markets. Texas Pacific Land Corporation is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

CEO Mr. Tyler Glover · 114 employees · United States · https://www.texaspacific.com