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CBSH Stock Forecast: Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 18 Sept 2026
$57
−0.63% on the day

The 10 Wall Street analysts covering Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) hold a median 12-month price target of $64 — +12.1% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 55 of 100 as at 19 Sept 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$8.2B
Ticker Nerd rank
55 / 100
Median analyst target
$64
Analysts covering
10
Revenue$511.7M+14.7% y/y
Net income$160.2M
Free cash flow$169.1M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−2.0%
1M
−3.7%
YTD
+10.7%
1Y
+1.5%
From 52W high
−4.9%
From 52W low
+21.4%
$47
$60
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

CBSH stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 19 Sept 2026
55 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Volatility
93
Quality
91
Revisions
79
Issuance
71
Growth
53
Momentum
47
Accruals
21
Value
21
Size
17

Volatility (93): The share price has been relatively steady.

Value (21): The shares cost a lot relative to the profits and assets behind them.

Size (17): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

CBSH stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on CBSH, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$45$50$55$60$65$70$75$80Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26CBSHHigh $76Median $64Low $62

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says10 analysts
2 Buy8 Hold0 Sell
Low $62Median $64High $76

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +12.1% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 6 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
8 Sept 2026Morgan StanleyUpgradeOverweight$65 → $76
10 Aug 2026Wells FargoMaintainsEqual-Weight$57 → $63
10 Aug 2026Wells FargoMaintainsEqual-Weight—
20 July 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform$60 → $62
20 July 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
17 July 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsNeutral—
17 July 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsNeutral$59 → $66
17 July 2026Stephens & Co.MaintainsEqual-Weight$62 → $64
17 July 2026Stephens & Co.MaintainsEqual-Weight—
17 July 2026TD CowenMaintainsHold—
17 July 2026TD CowenMaintainsHold$62 → $63
15 July 2026Stephens & Co.InitiatesEqual-Weight$62
15 July 2026Stephens & Co.InitiatesEqual-Weight—
6 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsEqual-Weight—
29 June 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-Weight—
26 June 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsNeutral—
13 May 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
23 Apr 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
23 Apr 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsNeutral—
23 Apr 2026TD CowenMaintainsHold—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. CBSH appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

CBSH vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 18 Sept 2026, Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) returned +1.5% against +16.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

CBSH vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
8090100110120Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26CBSHS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

CBSH analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+3.6%
Analysts raising
6
Analysts cutting
0
Fundamentals

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) (CBSH) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
14.0×

Cheaper than 48% of US stocks

Price / sales
4.4×

Cheaper than 28% of US stocks

Price / book
1.9×

Cheaper than 47% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
—
Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
14.2%

Higher than 61% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
4.8%

Higher than 41% of US stocks

Gross margin
—
Operating margin
45.1%

Higher than 94% of US stocks

Net margin
31.6%

Higher than 90% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
14.7%

Higher than 73% of US stocks

Return on assets
1.7%

Higher than 57% of US stocks

Dividend yield
1.9%

Higher than 43% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) (CBSH) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) has a market value of $8.2B and an enterprise value of $6.5B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.9B. The latest quarter grew 14.2% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $590.8M, a 31.1% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $4.08.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.2B.

  • Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) spent $336.9M on share buybacks and $155.8M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 143.9M.

  • Trailing P/E: 14.0×; forward P/E: 12.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 1.93%, paying out 27% of earnings.

  • Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) employs 4,976 people — $382K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 19 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

CBSH vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelBanks - Regional
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
CBSHCommerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri)$8.2B
55
COLBColumbia Banking System, Inc.$8.5B
34
PBProsperity Bancshares, Inc.$8.4B
48
BOKFBOK Financial Corp.$8.4B
67
WALWestern Alliance Bancorp.$8.6B
36
CBCCentral Bancompany, Inc.$7.6B
32
VLYValley National Bancorp$7.6B
63

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest CBSH news & analysis

The Dividend Kings Ranked By Quality Scores (September 2026)

Seeking Alpha · 18 Sept 2026neutral

A Seeking Alpha article ranks the Dividend Kings, companies with 50+ years of increasing dividends, using 9F Quality Scores that combine qualitative and quantitative factors. The piece highlights ADP as the best total-return candidate among them.

Why it matters — CBSH watchers would care because this ranking assesses the quality of Dividend Kings, a group that includes companies with long dividend-increase track records comparable to CBSH's standing as a dividend-paying institution.

Will CBSH's Expansion Initiatives Accelerate Top-Line Growth?

Zacks Investment Research · 8 Sept 2026positive

Zacks Investment Research reports that Commerce Bancshares' expansion initiatives are broadening its revenue base, with loan growth lifting net interest income and acquisitions expanding its wealth management and investment banking businesses.

Why it matters — A CBSH watcher would care because the company's expansion efforts are diversifying revenue streams and supporting top-line growth across its core banking and wealth management operations.

Do Options Traders Know Something About CBSH Stock We Don't?

Zacks Investment Research · 1 Sept 2026neutral

Zacks reports that recent activity in the options market for Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) stock has drawn attention. The piece suggests investors should closely monitor the stock given movements in its options trading.

Why it matters — A CBSH watcher would care because options-market activity can signal how other investors and traders view the stock's near-term prospects.

Best Dividend Kings: August 2026

Seeking Alpha · 24 Aug 2026positive

A Seeking Alpha report on Dividend Kings (dated August 2026) notes the group is outperforming the S&P 500 year-to-date with a 14.98% total return versus SPY's 12.89%. Thirty Dividend Kings are beating SPY, and dividend growth among the group accelerated, with the average rise reaching 4.12%.

Why it matters — As a Dividend King, Commerce Bancshares is part of the group highlighted in the article, so the report's favorable performance and dividend-growth data reflect positively on its standing.

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Declares Cash Dividend on Common Stock

Business Wire · 31 July 2026positive

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.275 per share on its common stock, payable on September 22, 2026 to stockholders of record as of September 4, 2026.

Why it matters — The dividend declaration provides shareholders with a continued regular cash return on their CBSH investment.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about CBSH stock

What is the CBSH stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 10 Wall Street analysts covering Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) have a median 12-month price target of $64, with estimates ranging from $62 to $76. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is CBSH stock a buy right now?

Of the 10 analysts covering Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri), 2 rate it a Buy, 8 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) 55 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 19 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank CBSH?

As at 19 Sept 2026, Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) ranks 55 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (93 of 100).

Will CBSH stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 10 analysts implies +12.1% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) 55 out of 100 as at 19 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the CBSH stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for CBSH are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $62 to $76 over the next 12 months.

How has CBSH stock performed over the past year?

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) returned +1.5% over the 12 months to 18 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri) do?

Commerce Bancshares Inc. is a regional bank holding company based in Kansas City, Missouri.

What is the latest news on CBSH?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 18 Sept 2026): "The Dividend Kings Ranked By Quality Scores (September 2026)". A Seeking Alpha article ranks the Dividend Kings, companies with 50+ years of increasing dividends, using 9F Quality Scores that combine qualitative and quantitative factors. The piece highlights ADP as the best total-return candidate among them.

Company

About Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (Missouri).

Commerce Bancshares Inc. is a regional bank holding company based in Kansas City, Missouri. Through its principal subsidiary, Commerce Bank, it provides a broad range of financial services to individuals, businesses, and municipalities, including consumer and commercial banking, mortgage lending, treasury management, payment solutions, and cash management services. The company also offers wealth management capabilities such as trust, estate planning, brokerage, and investment management through its affiliated businesses. Its operations are organized around consumer, commercial, and wealth segments, supporting everyday banking needs as well as more specialized corporate and advisory services. Commerce Bancshares Inc. plays a diversified role in the U.S. financial services market by serving retail customers, small businesses, large corporations, and institutional clients with deposit, lending, and advisory products.

CEO Mr. John W. Kemper · 4,976 employees · United States · https://www.commercebank.com