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CHDNCHDNConsumer Cyclical · Gambling

CHDN Stock Forecast: Churchill Downs, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 8 Oct 2026
$76
+2.99% on the day

The 12 Wall Street analysts covering Churchill Downs, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $128 — +68.1% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 66 of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$5.5B
Ticker Nerd rank
66 / 100
Median analyst target
$128
Analysts covering
12
Revenue$980.0M+4.9% y/y
Operating income$358.0M
Net income$242.0M
Free cash flow$159.0M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+1.8%
1M
−11.3%
YTD
−33.1%
1Y
−17.4%
From 52W high
−35.2%
From 52W low
+3.0%
$74
$118
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

CHDN stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Churchill Downs, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 8 Oct 2026
66 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Issuance
95
Value
85
Volatility
77
Quality
68
Accruals
67
Growth
48
Revisions
48
Momentum
25
Size
22

Issuance (95): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.

Momentum (25): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.

Size (22): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

CHDN stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on CHDN, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$60$80$100$120$140$160Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26CHDNHigh $157Median $128Low $100

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says12 analysts
12 Buy0 Hold0 Sell
Low $100Median $128High $157

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +68.1% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 2 moved their price target up and 3 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
2 Sept 2026Wolfe ResearchInitiatesOutperform$119
3 Aug 2026MizuhoMaintainsOutperform$155 → $157
3 Aug 2026MizuhoMaintainsOutperform—
31 July 2026CitizensMaintainsMarket Outperform$149 → $137
31 July 2026CitizensMaintainsMarket Outperform—
31 July 2026SusquehannaMaintainsPositive$121 → $124
31 July 2026SusquehannaMaintainsPositive—
31 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
31 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight$120 → $117
14 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight$132 → $120
14 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
19 May 2026MacquarieMaintainsOutperform—
24 Apr 2026CitizensMaintainsMarket Outperform—
24 Apr 2026MacquarieMaintainsOutperform—
24 Apr 2026MizuhoMaintainsOutperform—
16 Apr 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
27 Feb 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
14 Jan 2026CitizensMaintainsMarket Outperform—
5 Jan 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
18 Nov 2025Wells FargoInitiatesOverweight—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. CHDN appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

CHDN vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 8 Oct 2026, Churchill Downs, Inc. returned −17.4% against +16.2% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

CHDN vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
8090100110120130Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26CHDNS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

CHDN analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+0.7%
Analysts raising
2
Analysts cutting
4
Fundamentals

Churchill Downs, Inc. (CHDN) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
13.3×

Cheaper than 49% of US stocks

Price / sales
1.8×

Cheaper than 54% of US stocks

Price / book
4.1×

Cheaper than 24% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
10.3×

Cheaper than 37% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
4.9%

Higher than 39% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
11.1%

Higher than 49% of US stocks

Gross margin
42.8%

Higher than 53% of US stocks

Operating margin
36.5%

Higher than 90% of US stocks

Net margin
13.8%

Higher than 76% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
33.8%

Higher than 89% of US stocks

Return on assets
6.5%

Higher than 83% of US stocks

Dividend yield
2.2%

Higher than 80% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Churchill Downs, Inc. (CHDN) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Churchill Downs, Inc. has a market value of $5.5B and an enterprise value of $10.2B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $3.0B. The latest quarter grew 4.9% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $415.7M, a 13.9% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $5.83.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $382.6M, after $226.9M of capital spending.

  • Churchill Downs, Inc. spent $86.8M on share buybacks and $31.8M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 69.7M.

  • Trailing P/E: 13.3×; forward P/E: 10.6× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 2.24%, paying out 7% of earnings.

  • Churchill Downs, Inc. employs 6,600 people — $453K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 8 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

CHDN vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelGambling
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
CHDNChurchill Downs, Inc.$5.5B
66
SGHCSuper Group (SGHC) Ltd.$5.8B
51
RSIRush Street Interactive, Inc.$4.7B
87
BRSLBrightstar Lottery Plc$1.8B
46
DKNGDraftKings, Inc.$17.7B
38
ACELAccel Entertainment, Inc.$901.2M
98
CDROCodere Online Luxembourg SA$432.9M
13

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Churchill Downs, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest CHDN news & analysis

Churchill Downs Incorporated Announces Closing of Amended and Extended Credit Facility and New Term Loan B

GlobeNewsWire · 28 Sept 2026neutral

Churchill Downs Incorporated announced the closing of its amended and extended credit facility, covering its revolving credit and Term Loan A facilities, and the issuance of a new $500 million Term Loan B. The announcement was made via GlobeNewsWire.

Why it matters — The refinancing and new term loan reflect changes to CHDN's capital structure and debt facilities, which investors and analysts would want to track.

Sin Stock Investing: Finding Opportunities in Controversial Industries

Zacks Investment Research · 23 Sept 2026neutral

Zacks Investment Research published a piece on "sin stock" investing, covering industries such as tobacco, alcohol, gambling, and defense. The article notes these sectors can offer resilient demand and strong cash generation, while flagging regulation, legal risks, and shifting social attitudes as key considerations.

Why it matters — As a gambling-sector operator, Churchill Downs falls within the "sin stock" category that the article highlights as potentially resilient and cash-generative (albeit with regulatory and social risks), which is relevant context for CHDN investors.

Churchill Downs Incorporated 2026 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call Invitation

GlobeNewsWire · 21 Sept 2026neutral

Churchill Downs Incorporated announced it will release its third quarter 2026 financial results after market close on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and will host a conference call to discuss the quarter on Thursday, October 29, 2026, at 9 a.m. ET.

Why it matters — CHDN watchers will want to mark the date to hear management discuss the company's third quarter performance directly.

Churchill Downs Incorporated Announces Pricing of $500 Million Senior Secured Term Loan B Due 2033

GlobeNewsWire · 17 Sept 2026neutral

Churchill Downs Incorporated announced that it priced its $500 million senior secured Term Loan B due 2033, at SOFR plus 175 basis points and issued at 99.875% of principal amount. The previously announced offering was successfully priced on September 17, 2026.

Why it matters — CHDN watchers will note the company's debt-financing activity, which adds a term loan due 2033 to its capital structure.

Churchill Downs Incorporated Announces Launch of $500 Million Senior Secured Term Loan B Due 2033

GlobeNewsWire · 14 Sept 2026neutral

Churchill Downs Incorporated has announced the launch of a proposed $500 million senior secured Term Loan B due 2033. The offering is in aggregate principal amount and is being launched by the company.

Why it matters — CHDN watchers would care because this new $500 million term loan represents a significant financing move that will affect the company's capital structure and debt profile.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about CHDN stock

What is the CHDN stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 12 Wall Street analysts covering Churchill Downs, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $128, with estimates ranging from $100 to $157. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is CHDN stock a buy right now?

Of the 12 analysts covering Churchill Downs, Inc., 12 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Churchill Downs, Inc. 66 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 8 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank CHDN?

As at 8 Oct 2026, Churchill Downs, Inc. ranks 66 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (95 of 100).

Will CHDN stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 12 analysts implies +68.1% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Churchill Downs, Inc. 66 out of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the CHDN stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Churchill Downs, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for CHDN are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $100 to $157 over the next 12 months.

How has CHDN stock performed over the past year?

Churchill Downs, Inc. returned -17.4% over the 12 months to 8 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Churchill Downs, Inc. do?

Churchill Downs Incorporated is a U.S. gaming and racing company that operates live and historical horse racing venues, online wagering services, and regional casino properties.

What is the latest news on CHDN?

The most recent item we track (GlobeNewsWire, 28 Sept 2026): "Churchill Downs Incorporated Announces Closing of Amended and Extended Credit Facility and New Term Loan B". Churchill Downs Incorporated announced the closing of its amended and extended credit facility, covering its revolving credit and Term Loan A facilities, and the issuance of a new $500 million Term Loan B. The announcement was made via GlobeNewsWire.

Company

About Churchill Downs, Inc.

Churchill Downs Incorporated is a U.S. gaming and racing company that operates live and historical horse racing venues, online wagering services, and regional casino properties. Churchill Downs Incorporated’s business is organized around live and historical racing, wagering services and solutions, and gaming, giving it a diversified presence across pari-mutuel racing, sports and horse-racing betting, tote technology, and casino operations. Its portfolio includes Churchill Downs Racetrack and other racing-related properties, along with online wagering platforms and supporting technology services that serve racing fans, bettors, and gaming customers. The company also runs casino properties and related entertainment venues that complement its racing and wagering businesses. Based in Louisville, Kentucky, Churchill Downs Incorporated plays a prominent role in the U.S. horse racing and gaming market through a mix of physical venues, digital wagering products, and gaming operations.

CEO Mr. William C. Carstanjen · 6,600 employees · United States · https://www.churchilldownsincorporated.com