CHDNConsumer Cyclical · GamblingThe 12 Wall Street analysts covering Churchill Downs, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $125 — +31.9% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 67 of 100 as at 31 Oct 2026 — in the upper half.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Churchill Downs, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Issuance (98): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.
Momentum (36): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Size (19): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on CHDN, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +31.9% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 5 moved their price target up and 7 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | $132 → $133 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Outperform | $125 → $126 |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Stifel | Maintains | Buy | $139 → $132 |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Positive | $124 → $115 |
| 20 Oct 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | $123 → $118 |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Truist Securities | Maintains | Buy | $145 → $140 |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $117 → $120 |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Citizens | Maintains | Market Outperform | $137 → $131 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Citizens | Maintains | Market Outperform | — |
| 2 Sept 2026 | Wolfe Research | Initiates | Outperform | $119 |
| 2 Sept 2026 | Wolfe Research | Initiates | Outperform | — |
| 3 Aug 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 3 Aug 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Outperform | $155 → $157 |
| 31 July 2026 | Citizens | Maintains | Market Outperform | — |
| 31 July 2026 | Citizens | Maintains | Market Outperform | $149 → $137 |
| 31 July 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Positive | — |
| 31 July 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Positive | $121 → $124 |
| 31 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 31 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $120 → $117 |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
CHDN appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
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Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 30 Oct 2026, Churchill Downs, Inc. returned −5.2% against +12.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 46% of US stocks
Cheaper than 50% of US stocks
Cheaper than 20% of US stocks
Cheaper than 34% of US stocks
Higher than 32% of US stocks
Higher than 84% of US stocks
Higher than 53% of US stocks
Higher than 80% of US stocks
Higher than 77% of US stocks
Higher than 90% of US stocks
Higher than 83% of US stocks
Higher than 78% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Churchill Downs, Inc. has a market value of $6.5B and an enterprise value of $11.2B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $3.0B. The latest quarter grew 1.9% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $415.7M, a 13.9% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $5.83.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $382.6M, after $226.9M of capital spending.
Churchill Downs, Inc. spent $86.8M on share buybacks and $31.8M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 14.7×; forward P/E: 12.8× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 1.85%, paying out 7% of earnings.
Churchill Downs, Inc. employs 6,600 people — $453K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Churchill Downs, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Churchill Downs Incorporated held its Q3 2026 earnings conference call on October 29, 2026. The excerpt lists company executives and participating analysts but provides no earnings results or discussion details.
Why it matters — The call is a source of quarterly company information, but this excerpt alone does not disclose operating or financial developments for CHDN watchers.
Churchill Downs reported record third-quarter net revenue of $696 million and adjusted EBITDA of $264 million, supported by gains in wagering services and solutions and gaming. The company also outlined plans to sell nine wholly owned regional gaming properties, expand its horse-racing and historical racing machine businesses, and launch a Thoroughbred Championship Series in 2027.
Why it matters — CHDN watchers may note the record quarterly results alongside the company’s planned portfolio changes and business expansions.
Zacks Investment Research highlights Churchill Downs’ Q3 earnings for the quarter ended September 2026, noting that revenue and EPS provide a view of quarterly performance. The item says key metrics can also be compared with Wall Street estimates and year-ago figures.
Why it matters — CHDN watchers may use these comparisons to assess the quarter beyond its headline revenue and EPS.
Churchill Downs reported third-quarter earnings of $1.23 per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate. That compares with earnings of $1.09 per share a year earlier.
Why it matters — CHDN watchers may note that earnings met the consensus estimate and were higher than the year-ago figure.
Churchill Downs Incorporated reported business results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026.
Why it matters — The report provides CHDN watchers with the company’s latest quarterly business results.
The 12 Wall Street analysts covering Churchill Downs, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $125, with estimates ranging from $100 to $153. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 12 analysts covering Churchill Downs, Inc., 12 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Churchill Downs, Inc. 67 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 31 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 31 Oct 2026, Churchill Downs, Inc. ranks 67 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (98 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 12 analysts implies +31.9% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Churchill Downs, Inc. 67 out of 100 as at 31 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Churchill Downs, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for CHDN are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $100 to $153 over the next 12 months.
Churchill Downs, Inc. returned -5.2% over the 12 months to 30 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Churchill Downs Incorporated is a U.S. gaming and racing company that operates live and historical horse racing venues, online wagering services, and regional casino properties.
The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 29 Oct 2026): "Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript". Churchill Downs Incorporated held its Q3 2026 earnings conference call on October 29, 2026. The excerpt lists company executives and participating analysts but provides no earnings results or discussion details.
Churchill Downs Incorporated is a U.S. gaming and racing company that operates live and historical horse racing venues, online wagering services, and regional casino properties. Churchill Downs Incorporated’s business is organized around live and historical racing, wagering services and solutions, and gaming, giving it a diversified presence across pari-mutuel racing, sports and horse-racing betting, tote technology, and casino operations. Its portfolio includes Churchill Downs Racetrack and other racing-related properties, along with online wagering platforms and supporting technology services that serve racing fans, bettors, and gaming customers. The company also runs casino properties and related entertainment venues that complement its racing and wagering businesses. Based in Louisville, Kentucky, Churchill Downs Incorporated plays a prominent role in the U.S. horse racing and gaming market through a mix of physical venues, digital wagering products, and gaming operations.
CEO Mr. William C. Carstanjen · 6,600 employees · United States · https://www.churchilldownsincorporated.com
