FLYIndustrials · Aerospace & DefenseThe 10 Wall Street analysts covering Firefly Aerospace, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $39 — +82.2% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 11 of 100 as at 10 Sept 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Firefly Aerospace, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Revisions (68): Analysts have, on balance, been raising their forecasts.
Momentum (5): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on FLY, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +82.2% from it.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026 | B. Riley Securities | Maintains | Buy | $60 → $50 |
| 12 Aug 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterates | Overweight | $35 |
| 12 Aug 2026 | Roth Capital | Maintains | Buy | $60 → $45 |
| 27 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Initiates | Equal-Weight | $25 |
| 27 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Initiates | Equal-Weight | — |
| 15 June 2026 | Keybanc | Upgrade | Overweight | — |
| 15 June 2026 | Keybanc | Upgrade | Overweight | $50 |
| 5 May 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 17 Apr 2026 | Roth Capital | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 13 Apr 2026 | Jefferies | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 26 Mar 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 20 Jan 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 19 Dec 2025 | Keybanc | Initiates | Sector Weight | — |
| 25 Nov 2025 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 17 Nov 2025 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 13 Nov 2025 | Deutsche Bank | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 13 Nov 2025 | Roth Capital | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 2 Sept 2025 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Initiates | Overweight | — |
| 2 Sept 2025 | Deutsche Bank | Initiates | Hold | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. FLY appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 11 Sept 2026, Firefly Aerospace, Inc. returned −50.8% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 89% of US stocks
Cheaper than 12% of US stocks
Cheaper than 33% of US stocks
Cheaper than 85% of US stocks
Higher than 98% of US stocks
Higher than 21% of US stocks
Higher than 15% of US stocks
Higher than 5% of US stocks
Higher than 20% of US stocks
Higher than 21% of US stocks
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. has a market value of $3.7B and an enterprise value of $3.1B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $287.0M. The latest quarter grew 656.9% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: −$363.5M, a −126.6% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−2.94.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$326.5M.
Trailing P/E: −4.5×; forward P/E: −12.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. employs 1,409 people — $204K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Firefly Aerospace, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Firefly Aerospace announced a multi-launch agreement with SSC Space for two Alpha rocket launches from Sweden's Esrange Space Center, which is owned and operated by SSC Space.
Why it matters — The agreement expands Firefly's launch business into a new international launch site, potentially broadening its customer base and operational footprint.
Firefly Aerospace CEO Jason Kim said AI is already a connective technology across the company's portfolio, spanning autonomous lunar landings and U.S. Space Force missile warning data processing. The remarks position AI as an active capability rather than a future one for the company.
Why it matters — The statement highlights the breadth of Firefly's work across both Moon missions and national-security applications, underscoring the scope of its current portfolio for FLY watchers.
The article reports that SpaceX continues to dominate orbital launch services, completing its 100th Falcon mission of 2026 after a record 165 launches in 2025. Firefly Aerospace's CEO commented that despite SpaceX's pace, there remains a launch capacity shortage in the market.
Why it matters — The CEO's comments about an ongoing rocket shortage suggest continued demand for launch capacity beyond what SpaceX provides, which could be relevant to Firefly's business prospects.
The Motley Fool published a comparison piece on two outer-space startups, AST SpaceMobile and Firefly Aerospace. It notes that AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based cellular network for standard phones, while Firefly Aerospace provides launch, lunar, and in-space services for government and commercial national security missions.
Why it matters — The article positions Firefly Aerospace within the broader space-sector investment landscape, giving FLY watchers context on how the company compares to a space-communications upstart.
The Motley Fool compares Archer Aviation and Firefly Aerospace as potential 2026 investments, highlighting Archer's strategic airline and defense partnerships for its eVTOL aircraft while noting Firefly's significant revenue growth from a diverse backlog of government and commercial space launch contracts.
Why it matters — FLY watchers would care because the article highlights Firefly's expanding revenue driven by a diverse mix of government and commercial launch contracts.
The 10 Wall Street analysts covering Firefly Aerospace, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $39, with estimates ranging from $25 to $65. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 10 analysts covering Firefly Aerospace, Inc., 7 rate it a Buy, 3 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Firefly Aerospace, Inc. 11 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 10 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 10 Sept 2026, Firefly Aerospace, Inc. ranks 11 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Revisions (68 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 10 analysts implies +82.2% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Firefly Aerospace, Inc. 11 out of 100 as at 10 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Firefly Aerospace, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for FLY are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $25 to $65 over the next 12 months.
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. returned -50.8% over the 12 months to 11 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a space and defense technology company that develops launch vehicles, lunar landers, and in-space transportation systems.
The most recent item we track (GlobeNewsWire, 9 Sept 2026): "Firefly Aerospace Signs Contract with SSC Space for Two Alpha Launches from Esrange Space Center". Firefly Aerospace announced a multi-launch agreement with SSC Space for two Alpha rocket launches from Sweden's Esrange Space Center, which is owned and operated by SSC Space.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a space and defense technology company that develops launch vehicles, lunar landers, and in-space transportation systems. The company provides mission solutions for government, national security, and commercial customers, supporting activities across launch, transit, lunar delivery, and orbital operations. Its current product lineup includes small- and medium-lift launch vehicles, lunar lander systems, and orbital spacecraft designed for responsive access to space and cislunar missions. Firefly Aerospace also offers spacecraft servicing and mission support capabilities, combining hardware, software, and operational services for a range of space applications. The company plays a growing role in the commercial space industry by enabling reliable launch and space operations for customer missions from Earth orbit to the Moon and beyond.
CEO Mr. Jason Kim · 1,409 employees · United States · https://www.fireflyspace.com
