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FLY Stock Forecast: Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 7 Oct 2026
$22
−5.78% on the day

The 10 Wall Street analysts covering Firefly Aerospace, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $36 — +67.4% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 7 of 100 as at 7 Oct 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$3.8B
Ticker Nerd rank
7 / 100
Median analyst target
$36
Analysts covering
10
Revenue$117.7M+656.9% y/y
Operating income−$95.2M
Net income−$92.3M
Free cash flow−$106.3M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−7.1%
1M
−0.7%
YTD
−3.8%
1Y
−24.4%
From 52W high
−63.4%
From 52W low
+28.2%
$17
$59
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

FLY stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Firefly Aerospace, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 7 Oct 2026
7 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Issuance
58
Revisions
49
Size
27
Accruals
27
Growth
24
Value
21
Quality
15
Volatility
13
Momentum
4

Issuance (58): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.

Momentum (4): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

FLY stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on FLY, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$20$30$40$50Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26FLYHigh $50Median $36Low $25

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says10 analysts
7 Buy3 Hold0 Sell
Low $25Median $36High $50

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +67.4% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
12 Aug 2026B. Riley SecuritiesMaintainsBuy$60 → $50
12 Aug 2026Cantor FitzgeraldReiteratesOverweight$35
12 Aug 2026Roth CapitalMaintainsBuy$60 → $45
27 July 2026Wells FargoInitiatesEqual-Weight$25
27 July 2026Wells FargoInitiatesEqual-Weight—
15 June 2026KeybancUpgradeOverweight—
15 June 2026KeybancUpgradeOverweight$50
5 May 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-Weight—
20 Apr 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsNeutral—
17 Apr 2026Roth CapitalMaintainsBuy—
13 Apr 2026JefferiesMaintainsBuy—
26 Mar 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsOverweight—
20 Jan 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsNeutral—
19 Dec 2025KeybancInitiatesSector Weight—
25 Nov 2025JP MorganMaintainsOverweight—
17 Nov 2025Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-Weight—
13 Nov 2025Deutsche BankUpgradeBuy—
13 Nov 2025Roth CapitalMaintainsBuy—
2 Sept 2025Cantor FitzgeraldInitiatesOverweight—
2 Sept 2025Deutsche BankInitiatesHold—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. FLY appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

FLY vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 7 Oct 2026, Firefly Aerospace, Inc. returned −24.4% against +17.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

FLY vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
6080100120140160180Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26FLYS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

FLY analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
1
Fundamentals

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
−4.7×

Cheaper than 90% of US stocks

Price / sales
13.3×

Cheaper than 12% of US stocks

Price / book
3.1×

Cheaper than 31% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
−12.3×

Cheaper than 86% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
656.9%

Higher than 98% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
—
Gross margin
20.3%

Higher than 21% of US stocks

Operating margin
−80.9%

Higher than 15% of US stocks

Net margin
−129.1%

Higher than 5% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
−58.0%

Higher than 20% of US stocks

Return on assets
−18.1%

Higher than 21% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.0%

Higher than 1% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Firefly Aerospace, Inc. has a market value of $3.8B and an enterprise value of $3.2B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $287.0M. The latest quarter grew 656.9% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: −$363.5M, a −126.6% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−2.94.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$326.5M.

  • Shares outstanding: 166.2M.

  • Trailing P/E: −4.7×; forward P/E: −12.7× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.

  • Firefly Aerospace, Inc. employs 1,409 people — $204K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 8 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

FLY vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelAerospace & Defense
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
FLYFirefly Aerospace, Inc.$3.8B
7
ACHRArcher Aviation, Inc.$3.6B
8
LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.$3.3B
11
AIRAAR Corp.$4.0B
84
KRMNKarman Holdings, Inc.$4.2B
16
BETABETA Technologies, Inc.$4.6B
1
ATROAstronics Corp.$2.8B
83

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Firefly Aerospace, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest FLY news & analysis

The Real Moon Trade Isn't Who Gets There First — It's Who Keeps the Base Running

InvestorPlace · 3 Oct 2026neutral

An InvestorPlace piece highlights a shift in focus among space investors from the race to reach the Moon first to the ongoing challenge of sustaining lunar base operations after arrival. Trader Jonathan Rose of Masters in Trading LIVE is cited as raising the question of what happens after initial landings.

Why it matters — FLY watchers would care because sustaining lunar operations after landing is central to the company's longer-term mission profile and business prospects.

Firefly Aerospace vs. Redwire: Which U.S. Space Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

The Motley Fool · 1 Oct 2026positive

The Motley Fool published a comparison of Firefly Aerospace and Redwire as potential space-stock investments for 2026, highlighting Firefly's rapidly scaling launch and lunar capabilities backed by a backlog exceeding $1.4 billion. The article contrasts this with Redwire's diversified revenue streams serving national security, civil, and commercial missions.

Why it matters — FLY watchers would care because the article highlights the company's strong backlog and expanding launch and lunar capabilities as a notable strength relative to a competitor.

Firefly Aerospace Is the Space Stock Nobody Is Talking About

The Motley Fool · 1 Oct 2026positive

The Motley Fool reports on Firefly Aerospace, noting that its second-quarter revenue surged 659% year over year and that the company now has six contracted lunar missions under its belt.

Why it matters — This signals strong revenue growth and a growing lunar mission backlog, which are key indicators of Firefly's expanding commercial momentum for FLY watchers.

Firefly Aerospace vs. GE Aerospace: Which Industrials Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

The Motley Fool · 30 Sept 2026neutral

The Motley Fool published a comparison of Firefly Aerospace and GE Aerospace, highlighting Firefly's rapid expansion in the orbital launch market supported by a $1.4 billion backlog, while noting GE Aerospace's profitable aviation leadership with a large installed base of commercial and military engines.

Why it matters — The article positions Firefly's growth trajectory and substantial backlog against a major aerospace competitor, offering FLY watchers a comparative perspective on the company's standing in the industry.

Firefly Aerospace Stock Rises on Deal to Demonstrate AI Computing Around the Moon

Benzinga · 30 Sept 2026positive

Firefly Aerospace announced a new commercial payload agreement with Starcloud to demonstrate advanced AI computing capabilities in lunar orbit. Shares rose Wednesday following the announcement.

Why it matters — The agreement signals new commercial business for Firefly's lunar transportation services and expands its role in emerging space-based AI computing missions.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about FLY stock

What is the FLY stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 10 Wall Street analysts covering Firefly Aerospace, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $36, with estimates ranging from $25 to $50. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is FLY stock a buy right now?

Of the 10 analysts covering Firefly Aerospace, Inc., 7 rate it a Buy, 3 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Firefly Aerospace, Inc. 7 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 7 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank FLY?

As at 7 Oct 2026, Firefly Aerospace, Inc. ranks 7 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (58 of 100).

Will FLY stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 10 analysts implies +67.4% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Firefly Aerospace, Inc. 7 out of 100 as at 7 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the FLY stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Firefly Aerospace, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for FLY are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $25 to $50 over the next 12 months.

How has FLY stock performed over the past year?

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. returned -24.4% over the 12 months to 7 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Firefly Aerospace, Inc. do?

Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a space and defense technology company that develops launch vehicles, lunar landers, and in-space transportation systems.

What is the latest news on FLY?

The most recent item we track (InvestorPlace, 3 Oct 2026): "The Real Moon Trade Isn't Who Gets There First — It's Who Keeps the Base Running". An InvestorPlace piece highlights a shift in focus among space investors from the race to reach the Moon first to the ongoing challenge of sustaining lunar base operations after arrival. Trader Jonathan Rose of Masters in Trading LIVE is cited as raising the question of what happens after initial landings.

Company

About Firefly Aerospace, Inc.

Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a space and defense technology company that develops launch vehicles, lunar landers, and in-space transportation systems. The company provides mission solutions for government, national security, and commercial customers, supporting activities across launch, transit, lunar delivery, and orbital operations. Its current product lineup includes small- and medium-lift launch vehicles, lunar lander systems, and orbital spacecraft designed for responsive access to space and cislunar missions. Firefly Aerospace also offers spacecraft servicing and mission support capabilities, combining hardware, software, and operational services for a range of space applications. The company plays a growing role in the commercial space industry by enabling reliable launch and space operations for customer missions from Earth orbit to the Moon and beyond.

CEO Mr. Jason Kim · 1,409 employees · United States · https://www.fireflyspace.com