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FLY Stock Forecast: Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 28 Oct 2026
$20
−0.23% on the day

The 11 Wall Street analysts covering Firefly Aerospace, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $35 — +76.3% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 7 of 100 as at 27 Oct 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$3.3B
Ticker Nerd rank
7/ 100
Median analyst target
$35
Analysts covering
11
Revenue$117.7M+656.9% y/y
Operating income−$95.2M
Net income−$92.3M
Free cash flow−$106.3M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+12.4%
1M
−17.7%
YTD
−11.3%
1Y
−23.0%
From 52W high
−66.2%
From 52W low
+21.7%
$16
$59
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

FLY stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Firefly Aerospace, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 27 Oct 2026
7/ 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Issuance
58
Revisions
44
Size
28
Accruals
27
Growth
24
Value
22
Quality
15
Volatility
11
Momentum
9

Issuance (58): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.

Momentum (9): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.

Wall Street

FLY stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on FLY, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$10$20$30$40$50Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26FLYHigh $50Median $35Low $25

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says11 analysts
7 Buy4 Hold0 Sell
Low $25Median $35High $50

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +76.3% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
9 Oct 2026BarclaysInitiatesEqual-Weight$34
12 Aug 2026B. Riley SecuritiesMaintainsBuy—
12 Aug 2026B. Riley SecuritiesMaintainsBuy$60 → $50
12 Aug 2026Cantor FitzgeraldReiteratesOverweight—
12 Aug 2026Cantor FitzgeraldReiteratesOverweight$35
12 Aug 2026Roth CapitalMaintainsBuy$60 → $45
12 Aug 2026Roth CapitalMaintainsBuy—
27 July 2026Wells FargoInitiatesEqual-Weight$25
27 July 2026Wells FargoInitiatesEqual-Weight—
15 June 2026KeybancUpgradeOverweight—
15 June 2026KeybancUpgradeOverweight$50
5 May 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-Weight—
20 Apr 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsNeutral—
17 Apr 2026Roth CapitalMaintainsBuy—
13 Apr 2026JefferiesMaintainsBuy—
26 Mar 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsOverweight—
20 Jan 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsNeutral—
19 Dec 2025KeybancInitiatesSector Weight—
25 Nov 2025JP MorganMaintainsOverweight—
17 Nov 2025Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-Weight—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

FLY appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.

  • Market Radar, every Monday: the week's biggest rank moves across ~4,600 US stocks, and the reason for each.
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Performance

FLY vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 28 Oct 2026, Firefly Aerospace, Inc. returned −23.0% against +13.6% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

FLY vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
50100150200Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26FLYS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

FLY analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
1
Fundamentals

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
−4.1×

Cheaper than 90% of US stocks

Price / sales
11.6×

Cheaper than 12% of US stocks

Price / book
2.7×

Cheaper than 33% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
−10.6×

Cheaper than 86% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
656.9%

Higher than 98% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
—
Gross margin
20.3%

Higher than 21% of US stocks

Operating margin
−80.9%

Higher than 15% of US stocks

Net margin
−129.1%

Higher than 5% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
−58.0%

Higher than 20% of US stocks

Return on assets
−18.1%

Higher than 21% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.0%

Higher than 1% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Firefly Aerospace, Inc. has a market value of $3.3B and an enterprise value of $2.7B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $287.0M. The latest quarter grew 656.9% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: −$363.5M, a −126.6% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−2.94.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$326.5M.

  • Shares outstanding: 166.2M.

  • Trailing P/E: −4.1×; forward P/E: −11.1× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.

  • Firefly Aerospace, Inc. employs 1,409 people — $204K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 29 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

FLY vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelAerospace & Defense
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
FLYFirefly Aerospace, Inc.$3.3B7
ACHRArcher Aviation, Inc.$3.3B11
AIRAAR Corp.$4.0B83
DPCDPC Holdings Plc$4.1B2
LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.$2.6B11
ATROAstronics Corp.$2.6B82
VSECVSE Corp.$4.3B27

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Firefly Aerospace, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest FLY news & analysis

Firefly's SciTec Achieves Operational Milestone for U.S. Space Force FORGE System

GlobeNewsWire · 28 Oct 2026positive

Firefly Aerospace’s SciTec achieved an operational milestone for the U.S. Space Force’s FORGE system. The milestone incorporates advanced sensor data from geostationary orbit to strengthen missile warning and tracking.

Why it matters — The milestone highlights SciTec’s work supporting a U.S. Space Force missile-warning and tracking system, relevant to investors following Firefly’s business.

Rocket Lab vs. Firefly Aerospace: Which Stock Is More Attractive?

Zacks Investment Research · 27 Oct 2026neutral

The article compares Rocket Lab and Firefly Aerospace, noting that both are expanding space and defense capabilities through satellite launches, lunar exploration, and government contracts.

Why it matters — The comparison highlights areas of Firefly’s business that investors following FLY may want to monitor.

Firefly Aerospace Completes Preliminary Design Review for NASA MoonFall Mission

GlobeNewsWire · 21 Oct 2026positive

Firefly Aerospace completed the preliminary design review for its Elytra spacecraft for NASA’s MoonFall mission. The milestone moves the spacecraft toward final design and hardware production for delivering NASA JPL drones above the lunar south pole.

Why it matters — The review marks progress on a Firefly spacecraft mission for NASA, a development relevant to investors tracking the company’s programs.

Space Stocks Coast Through SpaceX Q3 Print: Rocket Lab, Firefly Steady

Benzinga · 20 Oct 2026neutral

SpaceX topped estimates on both revenue and earnings after Tuesday’s close, while the broader space sector saw little reaction. Firefly and Rocket Lab shares were described as steady.

Why it matters — The report notes that Firefly was among the space stocks that barely moved following SpaceX’s results.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about FLY stock

What is the FLY stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 11 Wall Street analysts covering Firefly Aerospace, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $35, with estimates ranging from $25 to $50. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is FLY stock a buy right now?

Of the 11 analysts covering Firefly Aerospace, Inc., 7 rate it a Buy, 4 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Firefly Aerospace, Inc. 7 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 27 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank FLY?

As at 27 Oct 2026, Firefly Aerospace, Inc. ranks 7 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (58 of 100).

Will FLY stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 11 analysts implies +76.3% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Firefly Aerospace, Inc. 7 out of 100 as at 27 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the FLY stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Firefly Aerospace, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for FLY are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $25 to $50 over the next 12 months.

How has FLY stock performed over the past year?

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. returned -23.0% over the 12 months to 28 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Firefly Aerospace, Inc. do?

Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a space and defense technology company that develops launch vehicles, lunar landers, and in-space transportation systems.

What is the latest news on FLY?

The most recent item we track (GlobeNewsWire, 28 Oct 2026): "Firefly's SciTec Achieves Operational Milestone for U.S. Space Force FORGE System". Firefly Aerospace’s SciTec achieved an operational milestone for the U.S. Space Force’s FORGE system. The milestone incorporates advanced sensor data from geostationary orbit to strengthen missile warning and tracking.

Company

About Firefly Aerospace, Inc.

Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a space and defense technology company that develops launch vehicles, lunar landers, and in-space transportation systems. The company provides mission solutions for government, national security, and commercial customers, supporting activities across launch, transit, lunar delivery, and orbital operations. Its current product lineup includes small- and medium-lift launch vehicles, lunar lander systems, and orbital spacecraft designed for responsive access to space and cislunar missions. Firefly Aerospace also offers spacecraft servicing and mission support capabilities, combining hardware, software, and operational services for a range of space applications. The company plays a growing role in the commercial space industry by enabling reliable launch and space operations for customer missions from Earth orbit to the Moon and beyond.

CEO Mr. Jason Kim · 1,409 employees · United States · https://www.fireflyspace.com