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FRME Stock Forecast: First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 21 Oct 2026
$40
−0.37% on the day

The 6 Wall Street analysts covering First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) hold a median 12-month price target of $46 — +15.1% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 20 of 100 as at 21 Oct 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$2.5B
Ticker Nerd rank
20/ 100
Median analyst target
$46
Analysts covering
6
Revenue$157.1M−2.0% y/y
Net income$28.2M
Free cash flow$58.6M
Quarterly, 7 quarters to 31 Mar 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+3.0%
1M
−2.3%
YTD
+9.5%
1Y
+12.3%
From 52W high
−10.9%
From 52W low
+18.5%
$34
$45
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

FRME stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 21 Oct 2026
20/ 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Value
52
Momentum
51
Revisions
50
Volatility
45
Growth
37
Size
32
Issuance
30
Quality
23
Accruals
17

Value (52): The shares cost little relative to the profits and assets behind them — which can mean the market is too gloomy, or that the business really is in trouble.

Accruals (17): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

FRME stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on FRME, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$35$40$45$50Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26FRMEHigh $48Median $46Low $45

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says6 analysts
5 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Low $45Median $46High $48

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +15.1% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
6 Oct 2026Raymond JamesUpgradeOutperform$46
5 Oct 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsOverweight$51 → $46
26 June 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsOverweight$49 → $51
26 June 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsOverweight—
4 Feb 2026Piper SandlerMaintainsOverweight—
27 Oct 2025Piper SandlerMaintainsOverweight—
29 Sept 2025Stephens & Co.ReiteratesEqual-Weight—
26 Sept 2025Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsOutperform—
26 Sept 2025Raymond JamesDowngradeMarket Perform—
28 July 2025Piper SandlerMaintainsOverweight—
28 Apr 2025Piper SandlerMaintainsOverweight—
28 Apr 2025Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform—
25 Apr 2025Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsOutperform—
2 Apr 2025Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform—
31 Jan 2025Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsOutperform—
31 Jan 2025Piper SandlerReiteratesOverweight—
31 Jan 2025Raymond JamesReiteratesOutperform—
4 Dec 2024Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsOutperform—
28 Oct 2024Piper SandlerMaintainsOverweight—
28 Aug 2024Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsOutperform—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

FRME appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.

  • Market Radar, every Monday: the week's biggest rank moves across ~4,600 US stocks, and the reason for each.
  • The AI build-out map, free: every AI company we track, part by part, and one part in full with each verdict.
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Free. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

FRME vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 21 Oct 2026, First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) returned +12.3% against +16.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

FRME vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
90100110120130Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26FRMES&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

FRME analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−9.5%
Analysts raising
2
Analysts cutting
1
Fundamentals

First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) (FRME) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
12.8×

Cheaper than 50% of US stocks

Price / sales
3.9×

Cheaper than 30% of US stocks

Price / book
0.9×

Cheaper than 72% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
—
Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
2.8%

Higher than 34% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−22.6%

Higher than 19% of US stocks

Gross margin
—
Operating margin
34.3%

Higher than 89% of US stocks

Net margin
29.0%

Higher than 88% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
7.4%

Higher than 57% of US stocks

Return on assets
0.9%

Higher than 49% of US stocks

Dividend yield
3.7%

Higher than 90% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) (FRME) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) has a market value of $2.5B and an enterprise value of $3.5B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 31 Mar 2026: $659.8M. The latest quarter grew 2.8% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $198.8M, a 30.1% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $3.40.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 31 Mar 2026: $280.5M.

  • First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) spent $63.9M on share buybacks and $87.1M on dividends in the twelve months to 31 Mar 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 62.8M.

  • Trailing P/E: 12.8×; forward P/E: 8.9× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 3.70%, paying out 47% of earnings.

  • First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) employs 2,086 people — $316K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 31 Mar 2026 · market figures as at 22 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

FRME vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelBanks - Regional
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
FRMEFirst Merchants Corp. (Indiana)$2.5B20
FBNCFirst Bancorp (North Carolina)$2.5B51
BANRBanner Corp.$2.5B43
BUSEFirst Busey Corp.$2.6B87
CUBICustomers Bancorp, Inc.$2.6B48
SYBTStock Yards Bancorp, Inc.$2.4B57
NBTBNBT Bancorp, Inc.$2.7B67

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest FRME news & analysis

First Merchants Q3 Earnings Call Highlights

MarketBeat · 22 Oct 2026positive

First Merchants reported third-quarter 2026 net income of $67.8 million, or $1.09 per diluted share. Higher net interest income and margin expansion supported results as the bank continued addressing a limited number of previously identified problem loans.

Why it matters — FRME watchers may find the update relevant because it describes both earnings support from improved net interest income and ongoing attention to problem loans.

Compared to Estimates, First Merchants (FRME) Q3 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics

Zacks Investment Research · 22 Oct 2026neutral

Zacks Investment Research says First Merchants’ Q3 revenue and EPS offer a view of performance for the quarter ended September 2026, and highlights comparing key metrics with Wall Street estimates and year-ago figures. The excerpt does not provide the results of those comparisons.

Why it matters — FRME watchers may find the comparisons useful for assessing quarterly performance against expectations and the prior year.

First Merchants (FRME) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates

Zacks Investment Research · 21 Oct 2026positive

First Merchants reported quarterly earnings of $1.10 per share, above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.04. Earnings were $0.99 per share in the year-ago quarter.

Why it matters — FRME watchers may note that quarterly earnings exceeded the consensus estimate and were higher than a year earlier.

First Merchants Corporation Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results

GlobeNewsWire · 21 Oct 2026neutral

First Merchants Corporation announced its third-quarter 2026 results, according to the GlobeNewsWire headline. The provided text contains no details about the results.

Why it matters — The announcement is a company update relevant to FRME watchers, but no financial or operating information was provided to assess its implications.

First Merchants Corporation Announces Cash Dividend on Its Preferred Stock

GlobeNewsWire · 15 Oct 2026neutral

First Merchants Corporation declared a quarterly cash dividend on its 7.50% Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series A. Depositary shareholders will receive $0.4688 per share on November 16, 2026, if recorded as holders on October 30, 2026.

Why it matters — FRME watchers may note the preferred-stock dividend amount and its payment and record dates.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about FRME stock

What is the FRME stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 6 Wall Street analysts covering First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) have a median 12-month price target of $46, with estimates ranging from $45 to $48. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is FRME stock a buy right now?

Of the 6 analysts covering First Merchants Corp. (Indiana), 5 rate it a Buy, 1 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) 20 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 21 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank FRME?

As at 21 Oct 2026, First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) ranks 20 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Value (52 of 100).

Will FRME stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 6 analysts implies +15.1% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) 20 out of 100 as at 21 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the FRME stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for FRME are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $45 to $48 over the next 12 months.

How has FRME stock performed over the past year?

First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) returned +12.3% over the 12 months to 21 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) do?

First Merchants Corporation is a financial holding company headquartered in Muncie, Indiana. First Merchants Corporation operates through First Merchants Bank, providing commercial and consumer banking services, including checking and savings accounts, deposit products, debit and credit cards, mortgage lending, home equity lending, vehicle financing, personal loans, and commercial lending.

What is the latest news on FRME?

The most recent item we track (MarketBeat, 22 Oct 2026): "First Merchants Q3 Earnings Call Highlights". First Merchants reported third-quarter 2026 net income of $67.8 million, or $1.09 per diluted share. Higher net interest income and margin expansion supported results as the bank continued addressing a limited number of previously identified problem loans.

Company

About First Merchants Corp. (Indiana).

First Merchants Corporation is a financial holding company headquartered in Muncie, Indiana. First Merchants Corporation operates through First Merchants Bank, providing commercial and consumer banking services, including checking and savings accounts, deposit products, debit and credit cards, mortgage lending, home equity lending, vehicle financing, personal loans, and commercial lending. The company also serves businesses and local institutions with treasury management, commercial real estate financing, agricultural lending, asset-based lending, small business administration lending, public finance, and specialty finance solutions. In addition, First Merchants Corporation offers wealth management, trust, brokerage, retirement planning, investment management, private banking, and financial planning services. Its community-focused banking model positions it as a diversified regional financial services provider serving individuals, businesses, and public-sector clients across its markets.

CEO Mr. Mark K. Hardwick C.P.A. · 2,086 employees · United States · https://www.firstmerchants.com