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FWRG Stock Forecast: First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 4 Sept 2026
$12
+2.99% on the day

The 11 Wall Street analysts covering First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $20 — +66.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 26 of 100 as at 5 Sept 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$743.6M
Ticker Nerd rank
26 / 100
Median analyst target
$20
Analysts covering
11
Revenue$354.7M+15.2% y/y
Operating income$8.6M
Net income$2.3M
Free cash flow−$13.5M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−3.7%
1M
−5.9%
YTD
−20.1%
1Y
−35.4%
From 52W high
−35.4%
From 52W low
+19.2%
$10
$19
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

FWRG stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 5 Sept 2026
26 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Growth
93
Size
49
Accruals
48
Revisions
36
Quality
34
Volatility
34
Value
33
Issuance
28
Momentum
15

Growth (93): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.

Momentum (15): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

FWRG stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on FWRG, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$10$12$14$16$18$20$22Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26FWRGHigh $22Median $20Low $17

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says11 analysts
11 Buy0 Hold0 Sell
Low $17Median $20High $22

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +66.0% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
7 Aug 2026GuggenheimMaintainsBuy$21 → $20
5 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsBuy$21 → $20
1 July 2026Freedom Capital MarketsInitiatesBuy$17
1 July 2026Freedom Capital MarketsInitiatesBuy—
3 June 2026TD CowenReiteratesBuy—
6 May 2026Stephens & Co.ReiteratesOverweight—
5 May 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
28 Apr 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
20 Apr 2026BenchmarkMaintainsBuy—
6 Mar 2026DA DavidsonInitiatesBuy—
25 Feb 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
25 Feb 2026CitigroupMaintainsBuy—
25 Feb 2026GuggenheimMaintainsBuy—
25 Feb 2026Stephens & Co.MaintainsOverweight—
24 Feb 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
7 Jan 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
6 Aug 2025BenchmarkMaintainsBuy—
6 Aug 2025Stephens & Co.MaintainsOverweight—
29 July 2025TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
18 July 2025B of A SecuritiesMaintainsBuy—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. FWRG appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

FWRG vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 4 Sept 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. returned −35.4% against +20.0% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

FWRG vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
6080100120Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26FWRGS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

FWRG analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−8.3%
Analysts raising
1
Analysts cutting
4
Fundamentals

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
41.6×

Cheaper than 18% of US stocks

Price / sales
0.6×

Cheaper than 81% of US stocks

Price / book
1.2×

Cheaper than 69% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
15.4×

Cheaper than 22% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
15.2%

Higher than 63% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
11.1%

Higher than 49% of US stocks

Gross margin
19.5%

Higher than 20% of US stocks

Operating margin
2.5%

Higher than 50% of US stocks

Net margin
1.4%

Higher than 50% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
2.9%

Higher than 49% of US stocks

Return on assets
1.2%

Higher than 51% of US stocks

Dividend yield
—

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. has a market value of $743.6M and an enterprise value of $1.8B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.3B. The latest quarter grew 15.2% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $17.8M, a 1.4% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $0.29.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$21.8M, after $149.1M of capital spending.

  • Shares outstanding: 61.7M.

  • Trailing P/E: 41.6×; forward P/E: 47.4× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. employs 18,000 people — $73K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 5 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

FWRG vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelRestaurants
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.$743.6M
26
PZZAPapa John's International, Inc.$746.0M
52
CNNECannae Holdings, Inc.$695.6M
79
SGSweetgreen, Inc.$809.7M
6
BLMNBloomin' Brands, Inc.$838.2M
88
KRUSKura Sushi USA, Inc.$535.4M
27
BRCBBlack Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.$479.7M
3

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest FWRG news & analysis

First Watch's Drop Is Proof The Market Lacks Taste

Seeking Alpha · 31 Aug 2026positive

First Watch Restaurant Group's shares have declined 20.8% against S&P 500 gains, yet the article maintains a "Buy" rating. Revenue grew 16.2% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, driven by company-owned restaurant expansion, with management targeting 10%–13% annual revenue growth and EBITDA growth of 11%–14% long-term.

Why it matters — An FWRG watcher would note the article's continued bullish stance despite the stock's underperformance, alongside management's growth and profitability targets.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. to Participate in Two September Investor Conferences

GlobeNewsWire · 27 Aug 2026neutral

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. announced it will participate in two investor conferences in September. The Company made the announcement on August 27, 2026.

Why it matters — FWRG watchers would care because participation in investor conferences gives the company a platform to present to investors and analysts.

Wall Street Breakfast Podcast: Coffee Rally Hits PSL Season

Seeking Alpha · 25 Aug 2026neutral

Coffee prices have climbed to six-month highs due to supply concerns in Brazil and Colombia, with a potential Super El Niño adding upside risk into 2026–2027. Starbucks' Pumpkin Spice Latte season launch comes amid heightened competition that includes First Watch, alongside Dutch Bros, Dunkin, Krispy Kreme, and Panera.

Why it matters — Rising coffee costs could pressure First Watch's input expenses, while the seasonal launch highlights the competitive restaurant landscape it operates within.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Seeking Alpha · 4 Aug 2026neutral

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) held its Q2 2026 earnings call, the transcript of which was published by Seeking Alpha. The call covered the company's second-quarter 2026 results and management commentary.

Why it matters — A FWRG watcher would care because the earnings call transcript provides direct insight into the company's quarterly performance and management's outlook.

First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) Q2 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates

Zacks Investment Research · 4 Aug 2026neutral

Zacks Research reports on First Watch Restaurant Group's earnings for the quarter ended June 2026, examining how the company's revenue and EPS compare with Wall Street estimates and year-ago results. The item frames the analysis around key metrics versus analyst expectations.

Why it matters — FWRG watchers would care because the piece shows how the company's quarterly revenue and earnings measured up against analyst estimates and prior-year performance.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about FWRG stock

What is the FWRG stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 11 Wall Street analysts covering First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $20, with estimates ranging from $17 to $22. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is FWRG stock a buy right now?

Of the 11 analysts covering First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., 11 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. 26 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 5 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank FWRG?

As at 5 Sept 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. ranks 26 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (93 of 100).

Will FWRG stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 11 analysts implies +66.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. 26 out of 100 as at 5 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the FWRG stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for FWRG are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $17 to $22 over the next 12 months.

How has FWRG stock performed over the past year?

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. returned -35.4% over the 12 months to 4 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. do?

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. is a daytime dining restaurant company that operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch brand in the United States.

What is the latest news on FWRG?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 31 Aug 2026): "First Watch's Drop Is Proof The Market Lacks Taste". First Watch Restaurant Group's shares have declined 20.8% against S&P 500 gains, yet the article maintains a "Buy" rating. Revenue grew 16.2% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, driven by company-owned restaurant expansion, with management targeting 10%–13% annual revenue growth and EBITDA growth of 11%–14% long-term.

Company

About First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. is a daytime dining restaurant company that operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch brand in the United States. The company focuses on made-to-order breakfast, brunch, and lunch, offering a menu built around fresh ingredients, seasonal dishes, and signature items across its restaurant network. Its business combines company-operated locations with franchise operations, allowing it to serve a broad customer base through a mix of owned and franchised restaurants. First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. plays a notable role in the casual dining sector by concentrating on daytime meal occasions and a differentiated hospitality-oriented format. Based in Bradenton, Florida, the company is recognized for its specialty positioning within the restaurant industry and its focus on fresh, high-quality daytime dining experiences.

CEO Mr. Christopher A. Tomasso · 18,000 employees · United States · https://www.firstwatch.com