FWRGConsumer Cyclical · RestaurantsThe 11 Wall Street analysts covering First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $20 — +62.5% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 25 of 100 as at 15 Aug 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Growth (93): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.
Momentum (13): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on FWRG, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +62.5% from it.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Buy | $21 → $20 |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $21 → $20 |
| 1 July 2026 | Freedom Capital Markets | Initiates | Buy | $17 |
| 1 July 2026 | Freedom Capital Markets | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 3 June 2026 | TD Cowen | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 6 May 2026 | Stephens & Co. | Reiterates | Overweight | — |
| 5 May 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 28 Apr 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Benchmark | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 6 Mar 2026 | DA Davidson | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 25 Feb 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 25 Feb 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 25 Feb 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 25 Feb 2026 | Stephens & Co. | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 24 Feb 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 7 Jan 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 6 Aug 2025 | Benchmark | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 6 Aug 2025 | Stephens & Co. | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 29 July 2025 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 18 July 2025 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. FWRG appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 17% of US stocks
Cheaper than 80% of US stocks
Cheaper than 67% of US stocks
Cheaper than 22% of US stocks
Higher than 63% of US stocks
Higher than 49% of US stocks
Higher than 20% of US stocks
Higher than 50% of US stocks
Higher than 50% of US stocks
Higher than 49% of US stocks
Higher than 51% of US stocks
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) held its Q2 2026 earnings call, the transcript of which was published by Seeking Alpha. The call covered the company's second-quarter 2026 results and management commentary.
Why it matters — A FWRG watcher would care because the earnings call transcript provides direct insight into the company's quarterly performance and management's outlook.
Zacks Research reports on First Watch Restaurant Group's earnings for the quarter ended June 2026, examining how the company's revenue and EPS compare with Wall Street estimates and year-ago results. The item frames the analysis around key metrics versus analyst expectations.
Why it matters — FWRG watchers would care because the piece shows how the company's quarterly revenue and earnings measured up against analyst estimates and prior-year performance.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. reported quarterly earnings of $0.04 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.06 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.03 per share in the same quarter a year ago.
Why it matters — FWRG watchers would note that the company fell short of analyst expectations for the quarter, even though per-share earnings were above the prior-year level.
First Watch Restaurant Group reported second-quarter revenue growth of 15.2%, supported by positive same-restaurant sales, marketing initiatives, and new restaurant openings. The company raised the low end of its full-year same-restaurant sales and revenue growth outlook while lowering its adjusted EBITDA forecast because of higher costs tied to strong demand for premium beef menu items.
Why it matters — FWRG watchers would care because the update balances solid revenue growth and raised sales guidance against a reduced adjusted EBITDA forecast driven by rising premium beef costs.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. reported Q2 2026 financial results, including same-restaurant sales growth of 3.4% and a 15.2% increase in total revenues. The company reported net income of $2.3 million, Adjusted EBITDA of $34.5 million, and opened 18 new system-wide restaurants across 15 states.
Why it matters — The results show continued revenue and same-restaurant sales growth along with restaurant expansion, giving FWRG watchers insight into the company's recent operating performance.
The 11 Wall Street analysts covering First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $20, with estimates ranging from $17 to $22. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 11 analysts covering First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., 11 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. 25 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 15 Aug 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 15 Aug 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. ranks 25 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (93 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 11 analysts implies +62.5% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. 25 out of 100 as at 15 Aug 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for FWRG are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $17 to $22 over the next 12 months.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. returned -31.0% over the 12 months to 17 Aug 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates a leading daytime dining restaurant chain specializing in breakfast, brunch, and lunch offerings across the United States.
The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 4 Aug 2026): "First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript". First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) held its Q2 2026 earnings call, the transcript of which was published by Seeking Alpha. The call covered the company's second-quarter 2026 results and management commentary.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates a leading daytime dining restaurant chain specializing in breakfast, brunch, and lunch offerings across the United States. The company runs and franchises locations under the First Watch brand, emphasizing fresh, made-to-order menu items such as omelettes, pancakes, salads, sandwiches, and cocktails, with seasonal specials highlighting ingredients like pumpkin or butternut squash. First Watch differentiates through its commitment to quality and freshness, avoiding pre-made or frozen components, and provides an elevated dining experience with natural light, greenery, and comfortable seating for individuals, families, and groups. It also owns Sun & Fork by First Watch, a fast-casual café concept. Customers seeking healthier options and a classy ambience beyond traditional diners find appeal in its core offerings. Founded in 1983 and headquartered in Bradenton, Florida, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. competes in the casual dining sector with a focus on daytime meals.
CEO Mr. Christopher A. Tomasso · 18,000 employees · United States · https://www.firstwatch.com