FWRGConsumer Cyclical · RestaurantsThe 10 Wall Street analysts covering First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $19 — +60.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 30 of 100 as at 22 Oct 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Growth (93): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.
Momentum (20): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on FWRG, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +60.0% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 0 moved their price target up and 6 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $20 → $19 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | Raymond James | Maintains | Strong Buy | $20 → $18 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Stephens & Co. | Maintains | Overweight | $21 → $18 |
| 2 Oct 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 2 Oct 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | $17 → $15 |
| 7 Aug 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 7 Aug 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Buy | $21 → $20 |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 5 Aug 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $21 → $20 |
| 1 July 2026 | Freedom Capital Markets | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 1 July 2026 | Freedom Capital Markets | Initiates | Buy | $17 |
| 3 June 2026 | TD Cowen | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 6 May 2026 | Stephens & Co. | Reiterates | Overweight | — |
| 5 May 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 28 Apr 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Benchmark | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 6 Mar 2026 | DA Davidson | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 25 Feb 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 25 Feb 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 25 Feb 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Buy | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
FWRG appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 22 Oct 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. returned −38.0% against +15.6% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 18% of US stocks
Cheaper than 80% of US stocks
Cheaper than 66% of US stocks
Cheaper than 23% of US stocks
Higher than 63% of US stocks
Higher than 50% of US stocks
Higher than 20% of US stocks
Higher than 49% of US stocks
Higher than 51% of US stocks
Higher than 49% of US stocks
Higher than 52% of US stocks
Higher than 1% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. has a market value of $713.4M and an enterprise value of $1.8B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.3B. The latest quarter grew 15.2% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $17.8M, a 1.4% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $0.29.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$21.8M, after $149.1M of capital spending.
Trailing P/E: 41.3×; forward P/E: 48.7× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. employs 18,000 people — $73K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
First Watch Restaurant Group announced it plans to release its third-quarter 2026 financial results before the market opens on November 3, 2026.
Why it matters — FWRG watchers can note the scheduled date for the company’s third-quarter results.
First Watch Restaurant Group's shares have declined 20.8% against S&P 500 gains, yet the article maintains a "Buy" rating. Revenue grew 16.2% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, driven by company-owned restaurant expansion, with management targeting 10%–13% annual revenue growth and EBITDA growth of 11%–14% long-term.
Why it matters — An FWRG watcher would note the article's continued bullish stance despite the stock's underperformance, alongside management's growth and profitability targets.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. announced it will participate in two investor conferences in September. The Company made the announcement on August 27, 2026.
Why it matters — FWRG watchers would care because participation in investor conferences gives the company a platform to present to investors and analysts.
Coffee prices have climbed to six-month highs due to supply concerns in Brazil and Colombia, with a potential Super El Niño adding upside risk into 2026–2027. Starbucks' Pumpkin Spice Latte season launch comes amid heightened competition that includes First Watch, alongside Dutch Bros, Dunkin, Krispy Kreme, and Panera.
Why it matters — Rising coffee costs could pressure First Watch's input expenses, while the seasonal launch highlights the competitive restaurant landscape it operates within.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) held its Q2 2026 earnings call, the transcript of which was published by Seeking Alpha. The call covered the company's second-quarter 2026 results and management commentary.
Why it matters — A FWRG watcher would care because the earnings call transcript provides direct insight into the company's quarterly performance and management's outlook.
The 10 Wall Street analysts covering First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $19, with estimates ranging from $15 to $22. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 10 analysts covering First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., 10 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. 30 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 22 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 22 Oct 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. ranks 30 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (93 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 10 analysts implies +60.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. 30 out of 100 as at 22 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for FWRG are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $15 to $22 over the next 12 months.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. returned -38.0% over the 12 months to 22 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. is a daytime dining restaurant company that operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch brand in the United States.
The most recent item we track (GlobeNewsWire, 20 Oct 2026): "First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. to Report Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 3, 2026". First Watch Restaurant Group announced it plans to release its third-quarter 2026 financial results before the market opens on November 3, 2026.
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. is a daytime dining restaurant company that operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch brand in the United States. The company focuses on made-to-order breakfast, brunch, and lunch, offering a menu built around fresh ingredients, seasonal dishes, and signature items across its restaurant network. Its business combines company-operated locations with franchise operations, allowing it to serve a broad customer base through a mix of owned and franchised restaurants. First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. plays a notable role in the casual dining sector by concentrating on daytime meal occasions and a differentiated hospitality-oriented format. Based in Bradenton, Florida, the company is recognized for its specialty positioning within the restaurant industry and its focus on fresh, high-quality daytime dining experiences.
CEO Mr. Christopher A. Tomasso · 18,000 employees · United States · https://www.firstwatch.com
