HLMNIndustrials · Tools & AccessoriesThe 8 Wall Street analysts covering Hillman Solutions Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $12 — +71.4% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 78 of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026 — inside the top quartile. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Hillman Solutions Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Value (80): The shares cost little relative to the profits and assets behind them — which can mean the market is too gloomy, or that the business really is in trouble.
Momentum (33): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on HLMN, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +71.4% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 1 moved their price target up and 2 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | $14 → $13 |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $10 → $11 |
| 1 July 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 1 July 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | $14 → $13 |
| 24 Mar 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 20 Feb 2026 | Benchmark | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 18 Feb 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 24 Nov 2025 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 29 Aug 2025 | Stifel | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 6 Aug 2025 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 6 Aug 2025 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 14 July 2025 | Stifel | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 30 Apr 2025 | Baird | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 16 Apr 2025 | Baird | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 8 Apr 2025 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 19 Feb 2025 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 19 Feb 2025 | Benchmark | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 16 Jan 2025 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 2 Jan 2025 | William Blair | Downgrade | Market Perform | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. HLMN appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 14 Oct 2026, Hillman Solutions Corp. returned −26.9% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 21% of US stocks
Cheaper than 71% of US stocks
Cheaper than 67% of US stocks
Cheaper than 43% of US stocks
Higher than 51% of US stocks
Higher than 67% of US stocks
Higher than 58% of US stocks
Higher than 61% of US stocks
Higher than 54% of US stocks
Higher than 50% of US stocks
Higher than 65% of US stocks
Higher than 1% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Hillman Solutions Corp. has a market value of $1.4B and an enterprise value of $2.1B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.6B. The latest quarter grew 9.8% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $41.2M, a 2.6% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $0.22.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $61.1M, after $64.5M of capital spending.
Hillman Solutions Corp. spent $35.8M on share buybacks in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 35.5×; forward P/E: 10.4× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.
Hillman Solutions Corp. employs 3,986 people — $402K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Hillman Solutions Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Hillman Solutions plans to host a conference call on November 3, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, to discuss results for the thirteen and thirty-nine weeks ended September 26, 2026.
Why it matters — The call date gives HLMN watchers a scheduled opportunity to hear the company discuss its third-quarter 2026 results.
Hillman Solutions Corp. announced it has completed its previously announced acquisition of Kanebridge, LLC, a leading master distributor of industrial fasteners, for a purchase price of approximately $315 million, subject to customary adjustments.
Why it matters — This acquisition expands Hillman's fastener distribution business and broadens its product and market reach as a hardware provider.
Hillman published its 2025 Responsibility Report and Fact Sheet, highlighting progress and future priorities across people, communities, environment, innovation, and governance.
Why it matters — The report gives HLMN watchers insight into the company's corporate responsibility efforts and forward-looking priorities across key operational areas.
Zacks Investment Research published a comparison of Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) and Holcim Ltd Unsponsored ADR (HCMLY), examining which stock offers better value for investors interested in building-products stocks.
Why it matters — The article provides a direct value comparison between HLMN and a peer in the building-products sector, which could influence how investors view HLMN's relative attractiveness.
Seeking Alpha published the transcript of Hillman Solutions Corp's (HLMN) Q2 2026 earnings call. The excerpt provided consists solely of the transcript's headline and contains no details from the call itself.
Why it matters — HLMN watchers can access the transcript to review management's commentary on the company's second-quarter 2026 results.
The 8 Wall Street analysts covering Hillman Solutions Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $12, with estimates ranging from $10 to $14. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 8 analysts covering Hillman Solutions Corp., 6 rate it a Buy, 2 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Hillman Solutions Corp. 78 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 14 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 14 Oct 2026, Hillman Solutions Corp. ranks 78 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Value (80 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 8 analysts implies +71.4% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Hillman Solutions Corp. 78 out of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Hillman Solutions Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for HLMN are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $10 to $14 over the next 12 months.
Hillman Solutions Corp. returned -26.9% over the 12 months to 14 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Hillman Solutions Corp. is a hardware products and merchandising services company serving retail, pro distribution, and industrial customers across North America and select international markets.
The most recent item we track (GlobeNewsWire, 7 Oct 2026): "Hillman Sets Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Results Presentation Date". Hillman Solutions plans to host a conference call on November 3, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, to discuss results for the thirteen and thirty-nine weeks ended September 26, 2026.
Hillman Solutions Corp. is a hardware products and merchandising services company serving retail, pro distribution, and industrial customers across North America and select international markets. Hillman Solutions Corp. offers a broad range of hardware-related products, including fasteners, builders hardware, threaded rod, metal shapes, keys, key duplication systems, identification items, and personal protective equipment such as gloves and eyewear. Its services also include in-store merchandising support and software-enabled key duplication and engraving solutions, helping retailers organize and present essential merchandise efficiently. The company operates through the Hardware and Protective Solutions, Robotics and Digital Solutions, and Canada segments. Headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, Hillman Solutions Corp. plays a significant role in the supply chain for home improvement, hardware, and industrial retail channels.
CEO Mr. Jon Michael Adinolfi · 3,986 employees · United States · https://www.hillmangroup.com
