HLMNIndustrials · Tools & AccessoriesThe 8 Wall Street analysts covering Hillman Solutions Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $12 — +31.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 45 of 100 as at 4 Nov 2026 — in the lower half.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Hillman Solutions Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Volatility (83): The share price has been relatively steady.
Issuance (27): The company has been issuing shares or taking on financing, diluting existing holders.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on HLMN, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +31.0% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 1 moved their price target up and 3 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | $13 → $12 |
| 1 Oct 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | $14 → $13 |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $10 → $11 |
| 1 July 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 1 July 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | $14 → $13 |
| 24 Mar 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 20 Feb 2026 | Benchmark | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 18 Feb 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 24 Nov 2025 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 29 Aug 2025 | Stifel | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 6 Aug 2025 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 6 Aug 2025 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 14 July 2025 | Stifel | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 30 Apr 2025 | Baird | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 16 Apr 2025 | Baird | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 8 Apr 2025 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 19 Feb 2025 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 19 Feb 2025 | Benchmark | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 16 Jan 2025 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
HLMN appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
AI cloud capacity
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AI chips
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AI networking and serversIn full
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Data centre power
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Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 4 Nov 2026, Hillman Solutions Corp. returned −2.7% against +14.8% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 18% of US stocks
Cheaper than 68% of US stocks
Cheaper than 59% of US stocks
Cheaper than 39% of US stocks
Higher than 52% of US stocks
Higher than 68% of US stocks
Higher than 58% of US stocks
Higher than 61% of US stocks
Higher than 54% of US stocks
Higher than 50% of US stocks
Higher than 65% of US stocks
Higher than 1% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Hillman Solutions Corp. has a market value of $1.7B and an enterprise value of $2.7B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.6B. The latest quarter grew 7.7% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $41.2M, a 2.6% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $0.22.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $61.1M, after $64.5M of capital spending.
Hillman Solutions Corp. spent $35.8M on share buybacks in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 73.2×; forward P/E: 13.2× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.
Hillman Solutions Corp. employs 3,986 people — $402K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Hillman Solutions Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Seeking Alpha published a transcript of Hillman Solutions Corp.’s Q3 2026 earnings call, held November 3, 2026. Company participants included CEO Jon Adinolfi and CFO Robert Kraft.
Why it matters — The transcript provides HLMN watchers with the company’s remarks and responses during its quarterly earnings call.
Hillman Solutions reported record third-quarter net sales and adjusted EBITDA, supported by new business wins, acquisitions, and growth in Robotics and Digital Solutions. Management narrowed its full-year sales outlook, citing a slower-than-expected improvement in market volumes.
Why it matters — HLMN watchers will note the record quarterly results alongside the more cautious sales outlook tied to market volumes.
Hillman Solutions Corp. reported quarterly earnings of $0.22 per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Earnings were also $0.22 per share in the same period a year ago.
Why it matters — HLMN watchers can compare the quarter’s results with analyst expectations and the year-ago figure.
Hillman reported third-quarter 2026 net sales of $457.5 million, up 7.7% and a record. It reiterated its full-year adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow guidance while updating its net sales outlook.
Why it matters — The results and revised net sales outlook provide HLMN watchers with an update on quarterly performance and the company’s full-year expectations.
Seeking Alpha's Q3 2026 Conestoga Micro Cap Composite update says the portfolio's micro-cap companies continued to show encouraging operational performance. It highlights strong demand driving TWST shares and a raised full-year revenue outlook from TKNO; it does not mention HLMN.
Why it matters — The item offers no HLMN-specific operating or financial update, so it provides little direct information for HLMN watchers.
The 8 Wall Street analysts covering Hillman Solutions Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $12, with estimates ranging from $9 to $14. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 8 analysts covering Hillman Solutions Corp., 6 rate it a Buy, 2 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Hillman Solutions Corp. 45 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 4 Nov 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 4 Nov 2026, Hillman Solutions Corp. ranks 45 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (83 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 8 analysts implies +31.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Hillman Solutions Corp. 45 out of 100 as at 4 Nov 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Hillman Solutions Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for HLMN are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $9 to $14 over the next 12 months.
Hillman Solutions Corp. returned -2.7% over the 12 months to 4 Nov 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Hillman Solutions Corp. is a hardware products and merchandising services company serving retail, pro distribution, and industrial customers across North America and select international markets.
The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 3 Nov 2026): "Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript". Seeking Alpha published a transcript of Hillman Solutions Corp.’s Q3 2026 earnings call, held November 3, 2026. Company participants included CEO Jon Adinolfi and CFO Robert Kraft.
Hillman Solutions Corp. is a hardware products and merchandising services company serving retail, pro distribution, and industrial customers across North America and select international markets. Hillman Solutions Corp. offers a broad range of hardware-related products, including fasteners, builders hardware, threaded rod, metal shapes, keys, key duplication systems, identification items, and personal protective equipment such as gloves and eyewear. Its services also include in-store merchandising support and software-enabled key duplication and engraving solutions, helping retailers organize and present essential merchandise efficiently. The company operates through the Hardware and Protective Solutions, Robotics and Digital Solutions, and Canada segments. Headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, Hillman Solutions Corp. plays a significant role in the supply chain for home improvement, hardware, and industrial retail channels.
CEO Mr. Jon Michael Adinolfi · 3,986 employees · United States · https://www.hillmangroup.com
