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HOGHOGConsumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles

HOG Stock Forecast: Harley-Davidson, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 14 Aug 2026
$28
−0.25% on the day

The 16 Wall Street analysts covering Harley-Davidson, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $30 — +8.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 78 of 100 as at 15 Aug 2026 — inside the top quartile. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.

Market cap
$2.9B
Ticker Nerd rank
78 / 100
Median analyst target
$30
Analysts covering
16
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+6.8%
1M
+10.8%
YTD
+38.0%
1Y
+4.1%
From 52W high
−7.6%
From 52W low
+62.8%
$17
$30
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

HOG stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Harley-Davidson, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 15 Aug 2026
78 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Issuance
100
Volatility
78
Growth
72
Revisions
70
Accruals
62
Value
61
Momentum
51
Quality
40
Size
32

Issuance (100): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.

Quality (40): Profits are thin or unreliable for the size of the business, or they are not turning into cash.

Size (32): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

HOG stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on HOG, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$20$25$30Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26HOGHigh $32Median $30Low $17

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

What Wall Street says16 analysts
6 Buy8 Hold2 Sell
Low $17Median $30High $32

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +8.0% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 4 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
28 July 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsUnderweight$15 → $17
24 July 2026BairdMaintainsNeutral$28 → $30
20 July 2026Loop CapitalUpgradeBuy—
20 July 2026Loop CapitalUpgradeBuy—
13 July 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral—
13 July 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral$26 → $27
6 July 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy$25 → $30
6 July 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
19 May 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsUnderweight—
11 May 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—
7 May 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral—
6 May 2026Wells FargoMaintainsUnderweight—
11 Mar 2026Wells FargoInitiatesUnderweight—
4 Mar 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—
14 Jan 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral—
25 Nov 2025Loop CapitalInitiatesHold—
19 Nov 2025Morgan StanleyMaintainsUnderweight—
13 Nov 2025UBSMaintainsNeutral—
10 Nov 2025DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
27 Oct 2025Morgan StanleyDowngradeUnderweight—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. HOG appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Estimates

HOG analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+69.7%
Analysts raising
9
Analysts cutting
1
Fundamentals

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
15.4×

Cheaper than 46% of US stocks

Price / sales
0.7×

Cheaper than 78% of US stocks

Price / book
0.9×

Cheaper than 75% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
8.8×

Cheaper than 43% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−5.9%

Higher than 19% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−25.8%

Higher than 17% of US stocks

Gross margin
31.7%

Higher than 37% of US stocks

Operating margin
7.2%

Higher than 59% of US stocks

Net margin
4.8%

Higher than 59% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
6.1%

Higher than 55% of US stocks

Return on assets
1.8%

Higher than 57% of US stocks

Dividend yield
2.7%

Higher than 61% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Peers

HOG vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelRecreational Vehicles
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
HOGHarley-Davidson, Inc.$2.9B
78
PATKPatrick Industries, Inc.$2.9B
51
LCIILCI Industries$2.6B
91
PIIPolaris Inc.$3.9B
85
THOThor Industries, Inc.$4.2B
61
BCBrunswick Corp.$5.4B
95
WGOWinnebago Industries, Inc.$891.9M
85

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Harley-Davidson, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest HOG news & analysis

Harley-Davidson Director Nova Buys 40,000 Shares for $983,000. What Does This Say About HOG's Prospects in 2026?

The Motley Fool · 5 Aug 2026positive

Harley-Davidson director Daniel J. Nova purchased 40,000 shares at an average price of $24.57 each, for a total of about $983,000, increasing his equity holdings in the company by 526%.

Why it matters — A significant insider purchase of this size can signal confidence in the company's direction from someone with direct knowledge of its operations and strategy.

Looking for a Fast-paced Momentum Stock at a Bargain? Consider Harley-Davidson (HOG)

Zacks Investment Research · 28 July 2026positive

Zacks Investment Research featured Harley-Davidson (HOG) on its 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen, indicating the stock has shown strong recent momentum while still trading at a reasonable price.

Why it matters — The screening suggests HOG may be attracting attention from momentum-focused investors who are also looking for value-oriented entry points.

Harley-Davidson Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on HDMC Growth

Zacks Investment Research · 24 July 2026positive

Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat Q2 earnings estimates, driven by motorcycle demand lifting the HDMC segment, while HDFS revenues plunged and LiveWire narrowed its losses.

Why it matters — The earnings beat, led by core motorcycle demand, signals strength in Harley-Davidson's primary business despite ongoing headwinds in its financial-services and EV units.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Seeking Alpha · 24 July 2026neutral

Harley-Davidson, Inc. released the transcript of its Q2 2026 earnings call via Seeking Alpha.

Why it matters — Earnings call transcripts provide direct insight into management's discussion of quarterly financial performance and outlook.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about HOG stock

What is the HOG stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 16 Wall Street analysts covering Harley-Davidson, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $30, with estimates ranging from $17 to $32. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is HOG stock a buy right now?

Of the 16 analysts covering Harley-Davidson, Inc., 6 rate it a Buy, 8 a Hold and 2 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Harley-Davidson, Inc. 78 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 15 Aug 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank HOG?

As at 15 Aug 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. ranks 78 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (100 of 100).

Will HOG stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 16 analysts implies +8.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Harley-Davidson, Inc. 78 out of 100 as at 15 Aug 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the HOG stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Harley-Davidson, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for HOG are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $17 to $32 over the next 12 months.

How has HOG stock performed over the past year?

Harley-Davidson, Inc. returned +4.1% over the 12 months to 14 Aug 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Harley-Davidson, Inc. do?

Harley-Davidson Inc. is an American motorcycle manufacturer and financial services provider headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

What is the latest news on HOG?

The most recent item we track (The Motley Fool, 5 Aug 2026): "Harley-Davidson Director Nova Buys 40,000 Shares for $983,000. What Does This Say About HOG's Prospects in 2026?". Harley-Davidson director Daniel J. Nova purchased 40,000 shares at an average price of $24.57 each, for a total of about $983,000, increasing his equity holdings in the company by 526%.

Company

About Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Harley-Davidson Inc. is an American motorcycle manufacturer and financial services provider headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The company’s core activity is designing, manufacturing, and selling heavyweight and premium motorcycles across categories such as cruiser, trike, Grand American touring, standard, sportbike, adventure touring, and dual sport, serving riders in the United States and internationally. Through Harley-Davidson Motor Company, it also offers genuine parts, accessories, and branded apparel, and licenses its trademarks for a broad range of merchandise, reinforcing its presence in the motorcycle lifestyle market. Harley-Davidson Inc. operates additional segments that extend its role in the industry. The LiveWire segment focuses on electric motorcycles, related parts, accessories, and apparel, addressing the growing market for electric two-wheel mobility. Harley-Davidson Financial Services supports the dealer network and retail customers with wholesale financing for inventory and retail installment lending for motorcycles, parts, and accessories, facilitating sales across its global dealer and e-commerce channels. Founded in 1903 and based in Milwaukee, Harley-Davidson Inc. today is a prominent player in the global motorcycle and powersports market.

CEO Mr. Arthur Francis Starrs III · 5,500 employees · United States · https://www.harley-davidson.com