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HOGHOGConsumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles

HOG Stock Forecast: Harley-Davidson, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 7 Oct 2026
$27
+0.04% on the day

The 15 Wall Street analysts covering Harley-Davidson, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $30 — +11.3% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 76 of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026 — inside the top quartile. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.

Market cap
$2.8B
Ticker Nerd rank
76 / 100
Median analyst target
$30
Analysts covering
15
Revenue$1.2B−5.9% y/y
Operating income$76.0M
Net income$79.0M
Free cash flow$155.4M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+10.3%
1M
−4.1%
YTD
+34.8%
1Y
+3.6%
From 52W high
−4.6%
From 52W low
+59.1%
$17
$28
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

HOG stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Harley-Davidson, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 6 Oct 2026
76 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Issuance
100
Volatility
82
Growth
71
Revisions
64
Accruals
63
Value
60
Momentum
54
Quality
41
Size
31

Issuance (100): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.

Quality (41): Profits are thin or unreliable for the size of the business, or they are not turning into cash.

Size (31): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

HOG stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on HOG, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$20$25$30Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26HOGHigh $33Median $30Low $17

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says15 analysts
6 Buy7 Hold2 Sell
Low $17Median $30High $33

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +11.3% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 7 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
8 Sept 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral$27 → $31
2 Sept 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral$26 → $28
17 Aug 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy$30 → $33
17 Aug 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
28 July 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsUnderweight$15 → $17
28 July 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsUnderweight—
24 July 2026BairdMaintainsNeutral—
24 July 2026BairdMaintainsNeutral$28 → $30
20 July 2026Loop CapitalUpgradeBuy—
20 July 2026Loop CapitalUpgradeBuy—
13 July 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral—
13 July 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral$26 → $27
6 July 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy$25 → $30
6 July 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
19 May 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsUnderweight—
11 May 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—
7 May 2026CitigroupMaintainsNeutral—
6 May 2026Wells FargoMaintainsUnderweight—
11 Mar 2026Wells FargoInitiatesUnderweight—
4 Mar 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. HOG appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

HOG vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 7 Oct 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. returned +3.6% against +17.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

HOG vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
60708090100110120Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26HOGS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

HOG analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+72.5%
Analysts raising
1
Analysts cutting
1
Fundamentals

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
14.8×

Cheaper than 49% of US stocks

Price / sales
0.7×

Cheaper than 78% of US stocks

Price / book
0.9×

Cheaper than 77% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
9.0×

Cheaper than 43% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−5.9%

Higher than 19% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−25.8%

Higher than 18% of US stocks

Gross margin
31.7%

Higher than 37% of US stocks

Operating margin
5.6%

Higher than 56% of US stocks

Net margin
4.8%

Higher than 59% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
6.1%

Higher than 55% of US stocks

Return on assets
1.6%

Higher than 56% of US stocks

Dividend yield
2.8%

Higher than 86% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Harley-Davidson, Inc. has a market value of $2.8B and an enterprise value of $3.8B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $4.2B. The latest quarter shrank 5.9% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $195.7M, a 4.6% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.63.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$133.1M, after $132.8M of capital spending.

  • Harley-Davidson, Inc. spent $850.5M on share buybacks and $82.8M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 112.6M.

  • Trailing P/E: 14.8×; forward P/E: 13.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 2.79%, paying out 40% of earnings.

  • Harley-Davidson, Inc. employs 5,500 people — $771K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 8 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

HOG vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelRecreational Vehicles
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
HOGHarley-Davidson, Inc.$2.8B
76
PIIPolaris Inc.$3.0B
84
THOThor Industries, Inc.$3.6B
48
PATKPatrick Industries, Inc.$2.2B
49
LCIILCI Industries$2.0B
91
BCBrunswick Corp.$4.2B
93
WGOWinnebago Industries, Inc.$705.3M
91

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Harley-Davidson, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest HOG news & analysis

Wall Street Is Betting These 3 Beaten-Down Stocks Have More Room to Run

MarketBeat · 7 Oct 2026neutral

MarketBeat reported a wave of analyst ratings and price-target updates at the start of the first trading week of October, as analysts repositioned ahead of third-quarter results. The excerpt does not identify Harley-Davidson or describe any company-specific analyst action.

Why it matters — HOG watchers can note the broader analyst activity ahead of Q3 reporting, but the excerpt provides no HOG-specific information.

Harley-Davidson Stock Jumps as Citi Bets on a Turnaround

Barrons · 5 Oct 2026positive

Citi upgraded Harley-Davidson to Buy, citing improving retail sales and dealer sentiment, and noted the returning Sportster model as a potential additional boost. The news sent Harley-Davidson stock higher.

Why it matters — A major analyst upgrade citing improving retail sales and dealer sentiment, along with the returning Sportster, signals renewed confidence in the company's turnaround prospects.

How Harley-Davidson, an American Icon, Became a Tariff Punching Bag

WSJ · 21 Sept 2026neutral

Harley-Davidson, the U.S. motorcycle maker, remains on the tariff payback list due to its politically sensitive profile, according to the Wall Street Journal. The company's visibility as an American icon makes it a recurring target in tariff-related trade disputes.

Why it matters — A HOG watcher would care because tariffs and retaliatory trade measures can affect the company's costs, exports, and international operations given its high-profile status.

HARLEY-DAVIDSON® AND REALTREE® DROP SECOND LIMITED-EDITION COLLABORATION

PRNewsWire · 16 Sept 2026positive

Harley-Davidson and Realtree have released a second limited-edition collaboration, continuing their partnership rooted in themes of freedom, adventure, and the outdoors.

Why it matters — The new limited-edition collaboration expands HOG's branded merchandise lineup, which can generate renewed interest among its customer base.

3 Leading Picks To Ride Through The Midterm Election Volatility

Seeking Alpha · 14 Sept 2026positive

Seeking Alpha highlighted Harley-Davidson as one of three top portfolio picks to ride out September and midterm election volatility, citing strong institutional accumulation, consecutive earnings beats, rising EPS, and aggressive buybacks. The article notes that outperformance may moderate after a 48% six-month gain.

Why it matters — For HOG watchers, the article signals positive sentiment around the company's fundamentals—earnings beats, buybacks, and institutional support—while also flagging that recent strong price gains may temper future outperformance.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about HOG stock

What is the HOG stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 15 Wall Street analysts covering Harley-Davidson, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $30, with estimates ranging from $17 to $33. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is HOG stock a buy right now?

Of the 15 analysts covering Harley-Davidson, Inc., 6 rate it a Buy, 7 a Hold and 2 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Harley-Davidson, Inc. 76 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 6 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank HOG?

As at 6 Oct 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. ranks 76 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (100 of 100).

Will HOG stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 15 analysts implies +11.3% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Harley-Davidson, Inc. 76 out of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the HOG stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Harley-Davidson, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for HOG are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $17 to $33 over the next 12 months.

How has HOG stock performed over the past year?

Harley-Davidson, Inc. returned +3.6% over the 12 months to 7 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Harley-Davidson, Inc. do?

Harley-Davidson, Inc. is a motorcycle company that designs, manufactures, and sells heavyweight motorcycles, along with parts, accessories, riding apparel, and licensed merchandise.

What is the latest news on HOG?

The most recent item we track (MarketBeat, 7 Oct 2026): "Wall Street Is Betting These 3 Beaten-Down Stocks Have More Room to Run". MarketBeat reported a wave of analyst ratings and price-target updates at the start of the first trading week of October, as analysts repositioned ahead of third-quarter results. The excerpt does not identify Harley-Davidson or describe any company-specific analyst action.

Company

About Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. is a motorcycle company that designs, manufactures, and sells heavyweight motorcycles, along with parts, accessories, riding apparel, and licensed merchandise. Harley-Davidson Motor Company offers a broad lineup that includes cruiser, touring, trike, standard, sport, adventure touring, and dual-sport models, serving riders who value distinctive styling and customization. The company also operates LiveWire, its electric motorcycle business, which extends the brand into battery-powered two-wheeled vehicles, balance bikes for children, and related parts and accessories. Through Harley-Davidson Financial Services, the company provides wholesale inventory financing, retail installment lending, and insurance-related products that support dealers and customers. Harley-Davidson serves markets in North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America, making it a major name in the global motorcycle industry.

CEO Mr. Arthur Francis Starrs III · 5,500 employees · United States · https://www.harley-davidson.com