HOGConsumer Cyclical · Recreational VehiclesThe 16 Wall Street analysts covering Harley-Davidson, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $30 — +13.2% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 76 of 100 as at 17 Sept 2026 — inside the top quartile. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Harley-Davidson, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Issuance (100): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.
Quality (41): Profits are thin or unreliable for the size of the business, or they are not turning into cash.
Size (31): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on HOG, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +13.2% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 7 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Sept 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | $27 → $31 |
| 2 Sept 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | $26 → $28 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | $30 → $33 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 28 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Underweight | $15 → $17 |
| 28 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Underweight | — |
| 24 July 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 24 July 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Neutral | $28 → $30 |
| 20 July 2026 | Loop Capital | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 20 July 2026 | Loop Capital | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 13 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 13 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | $26 → $27 |
| 6 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | $25 → $30 |
| 6 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 19 May 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Underweight | — |
| 11 May 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 7 May 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 6 May 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Underweight | — |
| 11 Mar 2026 | Wells Fargo | Initiates | Underweight | — |
| 4 Mar 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. HOG appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 17 Sept 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. returned −8.1% against +17.0% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 46% of US stocks
Cheaper than 77% of US stocks
Cheaper than 75% of US stocks
Cheaper than 42% of US stocks
Higher than 19% of US stocks
Higher than 18% of US stocks
Higher than 37% of US stocks
Higher than 56% of US stocks
Higher than 59% of US stocks
Higher than 55% of US stocks
Higher than 56% of US stocks
Higher than 60% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. has a market value of $2.8B and an enterprise value of $3.8B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $4.2B. The latest quarter shrank 5.9% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $195.7M, a 4.6% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.63.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$133.1M, after $132.8M of capital spending.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. spent $850.5M on share buybacks and $82.8M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 14.9×; forward P/E: 13.4× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 2.84%, paying out 41% of earnings.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. employs 5,500 people — $771K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Harley-Davidson, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Harley-Davidson and Realtree have released a second limited-edition collaboration, continuing their partnership rooted in themes of freedom, adventure, and the outdoors.
Why it matters — The new limited-edition collaboration expands HOG's branded merchandise lineup, which can generate renewed interest among its customer base.
Seeking Alpha highlighted Harley-Davidson as one of three top portfolio picks to ride out September and midterm election volatility, citing strong institutional accumulation, consecutive earnings beats, rising EPS, and aggressive buybacks. The article notes that outperformance may moderate after a 48% six-month gain.
Why it matters — For HOG watchers, the article signals positive sentiment around the company's fundamentals—earnings beats, buybacks, and institutional support—while also flagging that recent strong price gains may temper future outperformance.
The article identifies three consumer-facing companies with dividends that appear shaky, flagging that the durability of their payouts depends on underlying cash flow. Harley-Davidson is noted among these as showing warning signs.
Why it matters — HOG watchers would care because the piece questions the sustainability of Harley-Davidson's dividend, which is a key consideration for income-focused investors in the stock.
Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s Board of Directors approved a cash dividend of $0.1875 per share for the third quarter of 2026. The dividend was announced via PRNewswire from Milwaukee.
Why it matters — A HOG watcher would care because the company is returning cash to shareholders through a declared quarterly dividend.
Zacks Investment Research published an Industry Outlook article highlighting Harley-Davidson alongside General Motors, PACCAR, and Ford. The excerpt notes only that Harley-Davidson was featured in the article, without providing further specifics on the company itself.
Why it matters — A HOG watcher would care because the company's inclusion in the Zacks Industry Outlook places it under broader analytical review alongside major auto-industry peers.
The 16 Wall Street analysts covering Harley-Davidson, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $30, with estimates ranging from $17 to $33. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 16 analysts covering Harley-Davidson, Inc., 6 rate it a Buy, 8 a Hold and 2 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Harley-Davidson, Inc. 76 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 17 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 17 Sept 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. ranks 76 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (100 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 16 analysts implies +13.2% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Harley-Davidson, Inc. 76 out of 100 as at 17 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Harley-Davidson, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for HOG are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $17 to $33 over the next 12 months.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. returned -8.1% over the 12 months to 17 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is a motorcycle manufacturer and lifestyle brand based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
The most recent item we track (PRNewsWire, 16 Sept 2026): "HARLEY-DAVIDSON® AND REALTREE® DROP SECOND LIMITED-EDITION COLLABORATION". Harley-Davidson and Realtree have released a second limited-edition collaboration, continuing their partnership rooted in themes of freedom, adventure, and the outdoors.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is a motorcycle manufacturer and lifestyle brand based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Harley-Davidson focuses on designing, producing, and selling heavyweight motorcycles across categories such as touring, cruiser, trike, standard, sport, adventure, and dual-sport models. The company also offers motorcycle parts, accessories, riding gear, apparel, and licensed merchandise, extending its brand beyond vehicle sales into the broader powersports lifestyle market. Through Harley-Davidson Financial Services, it provides wholesale financing for dealers and retail financing and related services for consumers purchasing motorcycles. Its LiveWire segment adds electric motorcycles and related products to the portfolio, while the core business continues to serve riders through a global dealer network across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America.
CEO Mr. Arthur Francis Starrs III · 5,500 employees · United States · https://www.harley-davidson.com
