HOGConsumer Cyclical · Recreational VehiclesThe 15 Wall Street analysts covering Harley-Davidson, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $30 — +12.1% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 73 of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026 — in the upper half. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Harley-Davidson, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Issuance (100): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.
Quality (41): Profits are thin or unreliable for the size of the business, or they are not turning into cash.
Size (31): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on HOG, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +12.1% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 7 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Sept 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | $27 → $31 |
| 2 Sept 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | $26 → $28 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | $30 → $33 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 28 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Underweight | $15 → $17 |
| 28 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Underweight | — |
| 24 July 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 24 July 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Neutral | $28 → $30 |
| 20 July 2026 | Loop Capital | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 20 July 2026 | Loop Capital | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 13 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 13 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | $26 → $27 |
| 6 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | $25 → $30 |
| 6 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 19 May 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Underweight | — |
| 11 May 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 7 May 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 6 May 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Underweight | — |
| 11 Mar 2026 | Wells Fargo | Initiates | Underweight | — |
| 4 Mar 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. HOG appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 8 Oct 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. returned +2.6% against +16.2% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 46% of US stocks
Cheaper than 77% of US stocks
Cheaper than 74% of US stocks
Cheaper than 41% of US stocks
Higher than 19% of US stocks
Higher than 18% of US stocks
Higher than 37% of US stocks
Higher than 56% of US stocks
Higher than 59% of US stocks
Higher than 55% of US stocks
Higher than 56% of US stocks
Higher than 84% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. has a market value of $2.8B and an enterprise value of $3.8B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $4.2B. The latest quarter shrank 5.9% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $195.7M, a 4.6% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.63.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$133.1M, after $132.8M of capital spending.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. spent $850.5M on share buybacks and $82.8M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 14.8×; forward P/E: 13.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 2.79%, paying out 40% of earnings.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. employs 5,500 people — $771K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Harley-Davidson, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Harley-Davidson said it will release its third-quarter 2026 financial results before market hours on Thursday, October 29, 2026. A conference call webcast is scheduled for 8 a.m. CT.
Why it matters — HOG watchers can note the date and time when the company plans to report its quarterly results and hold the webcast call.
MarketBeat reported a wave of analyst ratings and price-target updates at the start of the first trading week of October, as analysts repositioned ahead of third-quarter results. The excerpt does not identify Harley-Davidson or describe any company-specific analyst action.
Why it matters — HOG watchers can note the broader analyst activity ahead of Q3 reporting, but the excerpt provides no HOG-specific information.
Citi upgraded Harley-Davidson to Buy, citing improving retail sales and dealer sentiment, and noted the returning Sportster model as a potential additional boost. The news sent Harley-Davidson stock higher.
Why it matters — A major analyst upgrade citing improving retail sales and dealer sentiment, along with the returning Sportster, signals renewed confidence in the company's turnaround prospects.
Harley-Davidson, the U.S. motorcycle maker, remains on the tariff payback list due to its politically sensitive profile, according to the Wall Street Journal. The company's visibility as an American icon makes it a recurring target in tariff-related trade disputes.
Why it matters — A HOG watcher would care because tariffs and retaliatory trade measures can affect the company's costs, exports, and international operations given its high-profile status.
Harley-Davidson and Realtree have released a second limited-edition collaboration, continuing their partnership rooted in themes of freedom, adventure, and the outdoors.
Why it matters — The new limited-edition collaboration expands HOG's branded merchandise lineup, which can generate renewed interest among its customer base.
The 15 Wall Street analysts covering Harley-Davidson, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $30, with estimates ranging from $17 to $33. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 15 analysts covering Harley-Davidson, Inc., 6 rate it a Buy, 7 a Hold and 2 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Harley-Davidson, Inc. 73 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 8 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 8 Oct 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. ranks 73 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (100 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 15 analysts implies +12.1% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Harley-Davidson, Inc. 73 out of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Harley-Davidson, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for HOG are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $17 to $33 over the next 12 months.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. returned +2.6% over the 12 months to 8 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is a motorcycle company that designs, manufactures, and sells heavyweight motorcycles, along with parts, accessories, riding apparel, and licensed merchandise.
The most recent item we track (PRNewsWire, 9 Oct 2026): "Harley-Davidson, Inc. To Report Third Quarter 2026 Results on October 29, 2026". Harley-Davidson said it will release its third-quarter 2026 financial results before market hours on Thursday, October 29, 2026. A conference call webcast is scheduled for 8 a.m. CT.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is a motorcycle company that designs, manufactures, and sells heavyweight motorcycles, along with parts, accessories, riding apparel, and licensed merchandise. Harley-Davidson Motor Company offers a broad lineup that includes cruiser, touring, trike, standard, sport, adventure touring, and dual-sport models, serving riders who value distinctive styling and customization. The company also operates LiveWire, its electric motorcycle business, which extends the brand into battery-powered two-wheeled vehicles, balance bikes for children, and related parts and accessories. Through Harley-Davidson Financial Services, the company provides wholesale inventory financing, retail installment lending, and insurance-related products that support dealers and customers. Harley-Davidson serves markets in North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America, making it a major name in the global motorcycle industry.
CEO Mr. Arthur Francis Starrs III · 5,500 employees · United States · https://www.harley-davidson.com
