HOGConsumer Cyclical · Recreational VehiclesThe 15 Wall Street analysts covering Harley-Davidson, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $30 — -3.9% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 73 of 100 as at 31 Oct 2026 — in the upper half. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Harley-Davidson, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Issuance (100): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.
Growth (6): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on HOG, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −3.9% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 10 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $33 → $37 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Underweight | $20 → $25 |
| 5 Oct 2026 | Citigroup | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 5 Oct 2026 | Citigroup | Upgrade | Buy | $31 → $33 |
| 8 Sept 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 8 Sept 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | $27 → $31 |
| 2 Sept 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 2 Sept 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | $26 → $28 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | $30 → $33 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 28 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Underweight | $15 → $17 |
| 28 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Underweight | — |
| 24 July 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 24 July 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Neutral | $28 → $30 |
| 20 July 2026 | Loop Capital | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 20 July 2026 | Loop Capital | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 13 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 13 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | $26 → $27 |
| 6 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | $25 → $30 |
| 6 July 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
HOG appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
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Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 30 Oct 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. returned +21.1% against +12.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 42% of US stocks
Cheaper than 72% of US stocks
Cheaper than 69% of US stocks
Cheaper than 1% of US stocks
Higher than 12% of US stocks
Higher than 4% of US stocks
Higher than 37% of US stocks
Higher than 51% of US stocks
Higher than 26% of US stocks
Higher than 40% of US stocks
Higher than 39% of US stocks
Higher than 82% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. has a market value of $3.2B and an enterprise value of $3.5B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $4.2B. The latest quarter shrank 19.2% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $195.7M, a 4.6% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.63.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$133.1M, after $132.8M of capital spending.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. spent $850.5M on share buybacks and $82.8M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 17.2×; forward P/E: 15.6× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 2.41%, paying out 40% of earnings.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. employs 5,500 people — $771K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Harley-Davidson, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Harley-Davidson reported higher third-quarter global motorcycle retail sales and raised portions of its 2026 outlook. The company cited improved North American demand, tighter dealer inventories and early results from its “Back to the Bricks” strategy.
Why it matters — HOG watchers may track how demand, dealer inventory levels and the strategy’s early results relate to the company’s outlook.
Seeking Alpha published a transcript of Harley-Davidson’s Q3 2026 earnings call, held October 29, 2026. The excerpt identifies company executives and analysts who participated but provides no discussion of results or outlook.
Why it matters — The transcript is a source for HOG watchers seeking management commentary, though the provided excerpt contains no substantive business updates.
A Seeking Alpha analysis says Harley-Davidson appears overvalued, citing weak operating income, declining sales forecasts through 2027, and limited profitability implied by 2026 guidance. The author lowered the fair value estimate to $14 per share and maintained a Hold rating.
Why it matters — HOG watchers may note the analysis’s concerns that recent retail and inventory improvements may not lead to a sustainable earnings recovery.
Harley-Davidson shares declined Thursday after the company reported fiscal 2026 third-quarter results that were below Wall Street expectations.
Why it matters — The earnings miss and share decline are relevant to HOG watchers assessing the company's latest reported performance.
Zacks Investment Research notes that Harley-Davidson’s Q3 top- and bottom-line results for the quarter ended September 2026 provide a view of performance, while the article focuses on how key metrics compared with Wall Street estimates and year-ago values. The excerpt does not provide the results or comparisons.
Why it matters — HOG watchers may use the key-metric comparisons with estimates and year-ago values to assess quarterly performance.
The 15 Wall Street analysts covering Harley-Davidson, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $30, with estimates ranging from $19 to $33. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 15 analysts covering Harley-Davidson, Inc., 6 rate it a Buy, 7 a Hold and 2 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Harley-Davidson, Inc. 73 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 31 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 31 Oct 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. ranks 73 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (100 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 15 analysts implies -3.9% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Harley-Davidson, Inc. 73 out of 100 as at 31 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Harley-Davidson, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for HOG are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $19 to $33 over the next 12 months.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. returned +21.1% over the 12 months to 30 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is a motorcycle company that designs, manufactures, and sells heavyweight motorcycles, along with parts, accessories, riding apparel, and licensed merchandise.
The most recent item we track (MarketBeat, 30 Oct 2026): "Harley-Davidson Q3 Earnings Call Highlights". Harley-Davidson reported higher third-quarter global motorcycle retail sales and raised portions of its 2026 outlook. The company cited improved North American demand, tighter dealer inventories and early results from its “Back to the Bricks” strategy.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is a motorcycle company that designs, manufactures, and sells heavyweight motorcycles, along with parts, accessories, riding apparel, and licensed merchandise. Harley-Davidson Motor Company offers a broad lineup that includes cruiser, touring, trike, standard, sport, adventure touring, and dual-sport models, serving riders who value distinctive styling and customization. The company also operates LiveWire, its electric motorcycle business, which extends the brand into battery-powered two-wheeled vehicles, balance bikes for children, and related parts and accessories. Through Harley-Davidson Financial Services, the company provides wholesale inventory financing, retail installment lending, and insurance-related products that support dealers and customers. Harley-Davidson serves markets in North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America, making it a major name in the global motorcycle industry.
CEO Mr. Arthur Francis Starrs III · 5,500 employees · United States · https://www.harley-davidson.com
