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TPBTPBConsumer Defensive · Tobacco

TPB Stock Forecast: Turning Point Brands, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 11 Sept 2026
$72
−0.61% on the day

The 6 Wall Street analysts covering Turning Point Brands, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $125 — +74.8% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 34 of 100 as at 12 Sept 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$1.4B
Ticker Nerd rank
34 / 100
Median analyst target
$125
Analysts covering
6
Revenue$143.0M+22.6% y/y
Operating income$16.7M
Net income$10.3M
Free cash flow$26.2M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−7.1%
1M
−18.8%
YTD
−33.9%
1Y
−28.7%
From 52W high
−49.9%
From 52W low
+1.4%
$71
$143
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

TPB stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Turning Point Brands, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 12 Sept 2026
34 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Quality
71
Revisions
59
Growth
58
Value
46
Momentum
42
Size
40
Volatility
32
Issuance
30
Accruals
18

Quality (71): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.

Accruals (18): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

TPB stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on TPB, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$60$80$100$120$140Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26TPBHigh $140Median $125Low $115

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says6 analysts
6 Buy0 Hold0 Sell
Low $115Median $125High $140

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +74.8% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
8 May 2026NeedhamUpgradeBuy$125
19 Nov 2025OppenheimerMaintainsOutperform—
6 Nov 2025Alliance Global PartnersMaintainsBuy—
7 Aug 2025OppenheimerMaintainsOutperform—
1 Aug 2025NeedhamInitiatesHold—
8 May 2025OppenheimerMaintainsOutperform—
10 Jan 2025Roth MKMReiteratesBuy—
17 Dec 2024Roth MKMReiteratesBuy—
5 Dec 2024Craig-HallumMaintainsBuy—
14 Nov 2024OppenheimerInitiatesOutperform—
12 Nov 2024BenchmarkMaintainsBuy—
19 Sept 2024Roth MKMInitiatesBuy—
2 Aug 2024BenchmarkReiteratesBuy—
5 June 2024BenchmarkReiteratesBuy—
3 May 2024BenchmarkMaintainsBuy—
12 Mar 2024BenchmarkReiteratesBuy—
6 June 2023BenchmarkInitiatesBuy—
10 Oct 2022BarclaysDowngradeEqual-Weight—
31 Aug 2022BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
5 Oct 2020BarclaysInitiatesOverweight—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. TPB appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

TPB vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 11 Sept 2026, Turning Point Brands, Inc. returned −28.7% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

TPB vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
6080100120140Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26TPBS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

TPB analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−12.1%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
2
Fundamentals

Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
31.1×

Cheaper than 25% of US stocks

Price / sales
2.8×

Cheaper than 43% of US stocks

Price / book
3.3×

Cheaper than 30% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
20.0×

Cheaper than 15% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
22.6%

Higher than 72% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−75.2%

Higher than 6% of US stocks

Gross margin
65.5%

Higher than 79% of US stocks

Operating margin
4.2%

Higher than 53% of US stocks

Net margin
8.8%

Higher than 67% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
17.6%

Higher than 78% of US stocks

Return on assets
5.8%

Higher than 80% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.4%

Higher than 8% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Turning Point Brands, Inc. has a market value of $1.4B and an enterprise value of $1.5B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $507.2M. The latest quarter grew 22.6% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $59.6M, a 11.8% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $2.33.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $19.6M, after $12.6M of capital spending.

  • Turning Point Brands, Inc. spent $6.1M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 20.0M.

  • Trailing P/E: 31.1×; forward P/E: 29.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.45%, paying out 13% of earnings.

  • Turning Point Brands, Inc. employs 484 people — $1.0M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 13 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

TPB vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelTobacco
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
TPBTurning Point Brands, Inc.$1.4B
34
AIIRAIR Global PLC$1.2B
4
UVVUniversal Corp.$1.1B
54
ISPRIspire Technology, Inc.$85.4M
38
YSWYYesway, Inc.*$1.4B
4
COURCoursera, Inc.*$1.4B
47
DMCDel Monte Corp.*$1.5B
56

* Nearest Consumer Defensive names by size — few tobacco companies of this scale trade in the US universe.

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Turning Point Brands, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest TPB news & analysis

Bear of the Day: Turning Point Brands (TPB)

Zacks Investment Research · 4 Sept 2026negative

Zacks Investment Research has designated Turning Point Brands as its "Bear of the Day," indicating the stock ranks on the wrong side of the Zacks Rank. This is based on what analysts are doing with their estimates compared to other stocks, even though the company is growing sales and has an interesting product portfolio.

Why it matters — TPB watchers would care because the negative Zacks designation reflects deteriorating analyst estimate trends that could affect how the stock is perceived, despite the company's underlying sales growth.

ALP NAMED OFFICIAL NICOTINE POUCH PARTNER OF MATCHROOM BOXING

PRNewsWire · 4 Sept 2026positive

ALP, described as the fastest-growing nicotine pouch brand in the US, has been named the Official Nicotine Pouch Partner of Matchroom Boxing, securing category exclusivity across its autumn schedule beginning 5 September 2026. This is ALP's first major partnership in the UK and Ireland and marks the start of its push into European markets.

Why it matters — For a TPB watcher, this signals ALP's expansion into European markets and a notable sports-marketing partnership that could extend the brand's growth trajectory beyond the US.

Is Altria's on! PLUS Shaping Up as Its Next Major Growth Engine?

Zacks Investment Research · 1 Sept 2026neutral

Altria's on! PLUS nicotine pouch is gaining retail share and nationwide reach, with new strengths and flavors expected to broaden its lineup in 2026. The item highlights the brand's potential as a major growth engine for Altria.

Why it matters — A TPB watcher would care because Altria's expanding nicotine pouch presence signals intensifying competition in the oral nicotine category where TPB also operates.

Turning Point Brands Targets 10% Modern Oral Nicotine Share by 2030

MarketBeat · 28 Aug 2026positive

Turning Point Brands CEO Graham Purdy told investors at the IDEAS Conference that the company is positioning its modern oral nicotine portfolio as its primary growth driver, with a target of reaching a double-digit (10%) share of the category by the end of the decade.

Why it matters — This signals management's strategic focus and growth ambition for TPB's modern oral nicotine business over the coming years, which investors would want to track.

ALP Introduces the Frontier Collection: Three New Flavors and a Cinematic Campaign Inspired by the American West

PRNewsWire · 18 Aug 2026positive

ALP, a nicotine pouch brand, announced the launch of the Frontier Collection, a limited-edition lineup with three new flavors — Cowboy Coffee, Campfire Cinnamon, and Sunset Mango — new nicotine strengths, and a cinematic campaign featuring a short film shot with a live horse roundup and a Black Hawk helicopter. The direct-to-consumer launch expands ALP's product lineup with some of its most-requested flavors.

Why it matters — As a nicotine pouch brand within Turning Point Brands' portfolio, ALP's new product expansion and marketing campaign could be relevant to TPB watchers following the brand's growth and direct-to-consumer strategy.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about TPB stock

What is the TPB stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 6 Wall Street analysts covering Turning Point Brands, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $125, with estimates ranging from $115 to $140. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is TPB stock a buy right now?

Of the 6 analysts covering Turning Point Brands, Inc., 6 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Turning Point Brands, Inc. 34 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 12 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank TPB?

As at 12 Sept 2026, Turning Point Brands, Inc. ranks 34 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (71 of 100).

Will TPB stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 6 analysts implies +74.8% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Turning Point Brands, Inc. 34 out of 100 as at 12 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the TPB stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Turning Point Brands, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for TPB are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $115 to $140 over the next 12 months.

How has TPB stock performed over the past year?

Turning Point Brands, Inc. returned -28.7% over the 12 months to 11 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Turning Point Brands, Inc. do?

Turning Point Brands, Inc. is a branded consumer products company focused on alternative smoking accessories and other adult tobacco-related products.

What is the latest news on TPB?

The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 4 Sept 2026): "Bear of the Day: Turning Point Brands (TPB)". Zacks Investment Research has designated Turning Point Brands as its "Bear of the Day," indicating the stock ranks on the wrong side of the Zacks Rank. This is based on what analysts are doing with their estimates compared to other stocks, even though the company is growing sales and has an interesting product portfolio.

Company

About Turning Point Brands, Inc.

Turning Point Brands, Inc. is a branded consumer products company focused on alternative smoking accessories and other adult tobacco-related products. The company sells a portfolio centered on Zig-Zag rolling papers, cones, wraps, tubes, and cigar accessories, along with Stoker’s moist snuff and loose-leaf chewing tobacco products. It also participates in adjacent product categories that serve adult consumers through convenience, specialty, and tobacco retail channels. Turning Point Brands operates through its Zig-Zag Products and Stoker’s Products segments, which together support a mix of legacy brands and newer offerings in the nicotine and smoking accessories market. Based in Louisville, Kentucky, the company plays a niche role in the consumer staples sector by supplying branded products used in everyday tobacco and alternative smoking use cases.

CEO Mr. Graham A. Purdy · 484 employees · United States · https://www.turningpointbrands.com