TPBConsumer Defensive · TobaccoThe 6 Wall Street analysts covering Turning Point Brands, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $121 — +116.6% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 31 of 100 as at 3 Oct 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Turning Point Brands, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Quality (71): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.
Accruals (18): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on TPB, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +116.6% from it.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sept 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | $130 → $90 |
| 8 May 2026 | Needham | Upgrade | Buy | $125 |
| 8 May 2026 | Needham | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 19 Nov 2025 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 6 Nov 2025 | Alliance Global Partners | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 7 Aug 2025 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 1 Aug 2025 | Needham | Initiates | Hold | — |
| 8 May 2025 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 10 Jan 2025 | Roth MKM | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 17 Dec 2024 | Roth MKM | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 5 Dec 2024 | Craig-Hallum | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 14 Nov 2024 | Oppenheimer | Initiates | Outperform | — |
| 12 Nov 2024 | Benchmark | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 19 Sept 2024 | Roth MKM | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 2 Aug 2024 | Benchmark | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 5 June 2024 | Benchmark | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 3 May 2024 | Benchmark | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 12 Mar 2024 | Benchmark | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 6 June 2023 | Benchmark | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 10 Oct 2022 | Barclays | Downgrade | Equal-Weight | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. TPB appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 2 Oct 2026, Turning Point Brands, Inc. returned −42.2% against +16.2% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 31% of US stocks
Cheaper than 50% of US stocks
Cheaper than 36% of US stocks
Cheaper than 21% of US stocks
Higher than 72% of US stocks
Higher than 6% of US stocks
Higher than 79% of US stocks
Higher than 53% of US stocks
Higher than 67% of US stocks
Higher than 78% of US stocks
Higher than 80% of US stocks
Higher than 11% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Turning Point Brands, Inc. has a market value of $1.1B and an enterprise value of $1.2B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $507.2M. The latest quarter grew 22.6% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $59.6M, a 11.8% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $2.33.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $19.6M, after $12.6M of capital spending.
Turning Point Brands, Inc. spent $6.1M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 24.1×; forward P/E: 24.8× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.57%, paying out 13% of earnings.
Turning Point Brands, Inc. employs 484 people — $1.0M of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
| Company | Market cap | TKN rank |
|---|---|---|
| TPBTurning Point Brands, Inc. | $1.1B | 31 |
| UVVUniversal Corp. | $1.1B | 53 |
| AIIRAIR Global PLC | $1.2B | 4 |
| ISPRIspire Technology, Inc. | $79.1M | 41 |
| AVOMission Produce, Inc.* | $1.1B | 32 |
| AFYAAfya Ltd.* | $1.1B | 85 |
| GOGrocery Outlet Holding Corp.* | $1.1B | 57 |
* Nearest Consumer Defensive names by size — few tobacco companies of this scale trade in the US universe.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Turning Point Brands, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Seeking Alpha published a weekly overview of dividend activity among Dividend Champions, Contenders, and Challengers, highlighting companies that changed their dividends and those with upcoming ex-dividend dates.
Why it matters — The article's weekly dividend activity tracker could be relevant to TPB watchers monitoring dividend-moving companies, including potential peers or competitors.
Turning Point Brands' stock declined this week following the unexpected resignation of its CEO. The move was compounded by an analyst significantly reducing the company's price target.
Why it matters — A sudden CEO departure and a lowered price target could raise uncertainty about the company's leadership and near-term outlook for TPB watchers.
Turning Point Brands announced a sudden CEO change, which the article suggests carries little implication as 2026 guidance was reaffirmed. TPB's nicotine pouch brands ALP and FRE continue to scale well with expanding market reach, while margin concerns are seen as reflecting temporary marketing and sales investments.
Why it matters — A TPB watcher would care because the piece frames the leadership transition as minimal-impact and expects profitability pressure from brand investment to be temporary, while highlighting continued strength in the company's key nicotine pouch brands.
Turning Point Brands shares declined by 10% in trading. The company is undergoing a leadership change, with the CEO position to be filled by the current executive chairman, effective next week.
Why it matters — A change at the top, combined with the sharp share-price drop, signals a significant transition for TPB that investors will be watching closely.
Turning Point Brands announced that its Board of Directors has appointed Executive Chairman David E. Glazek as Chief Executive Officer, effective October 1, 2026. He succeeds Graham Purdy, who is stepping down as CEO for personal reasons unrelated to any disagreement with the company.
Why it matters — A TPB watcher would care because the leadership transition sets the company's executive direction, with an internal successor taking over from the outgoing CEO.
The 6 Wall Street analysts covering Turning Point Brands, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $121, with estimates ranging from $90 to $140. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 6 analysts covering Turning Point Brands, Inc., 6 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Turning Point Brands, Inc. 31 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 3 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 3 Oct 2026, Turning Point Brands, Inc. ranks 31 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (71 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 6 analysts implies +116.6% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Turning Point Brands, Inc. 31 out of 100 as at 3 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Turning Point Brands, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for TPB are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $90 to $140 over the next 12 months.
Turning Point Brands, Inc. returned -42.2% over the 12 months to 2 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Turning Point Brands, Inc. is a branded consumer products company focused on alternative smoking accessories and other adult tobacco-related products.
The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 2 Oct 2026): "Dividend Champion, Contender, And Challenger Highlights: Week October 4". Seeking Alpha published a weekly overview of dividend activity among Dividend Champions, Contenders, and Challengers, highlighting companies that changed their dividends and those with upcoming ex-dividend dates.
Turning Point Brands, Inc. is a branded consumer products company focused on alternative smoking accessories and other adult tobacco-related products. The company sells a portfolio centered on Zig-Zag rolling papers, cones, wraps, tubes, and cigar accessories, along with Stoker’s moist snuff and loose-leaf chewing tobacco products. It also participates in adjacent product categories that serve adult consumers through convenience, specialty, and tobacco retail channels. Turning Point Brands operates through its Zig-Zag Products and Stoker’s Products segments, which together support a mix of legacy brands and newer offerings in the nicotine and smoking accessories market. Based in Louisville, Kentucky, the company plays a niche role in the consumer staples sector by supplying branded products used in everyday tobacco and alternative smoking use cases.
CEO Mr. Graham A. Purdy · 484 employees · United States · https://www.turningpointbrands.com
