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VST Stock Forecast: Vistra Corp. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 4 Nov 2026
$120
−13.85% on the day

The 23 Wall Street analysts covering Vistra Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $201 — +67.2% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 41 of 100 as at 4 Nov 2026 — in the lower half.

Market cap
$40.4B
Ticker Nerd rank
41/ 100
Median analyst target
$201
Analysts covering
23
Revenue$4.0B−5.5% y/y
Operating income$553.0M
Net income$305.0M
Free cash flow$334.0M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−15.7%
1M
−14.1%
YTD
−25.1%
1Y
−34.9%
From 52W high
−36.7%
From 52W low
0.0%
$120
$190
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

VST stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Vistra Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 4 Nov 2026
41/ 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Value
98
Quality
97
Accruals
58
Revisions
57
Issuance
56
Momentum
22
Volatility
7
Size
6
Growth
6

Value (98): The shares cost little relative to the profits and assets behind them — which can mean the market is too gloomy, or that the business really is in trouble.

Growth (6): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.

Wall Street

VST stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on VST, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$100$150$200$250$300Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26VSTHigh $306Median $201Low $106

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says23 analysts
22 Buy0 Hold1 Sell
Low $106Median $201High $306

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +67.2% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 2 moved their price target up and 7 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
4 Nov 2026KeybancDowngradeSector Weight—
28 Oct 2026CIBCMaintainsOutperformer$201 → $181
28 Oct 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Outperform$207 → $189
28 Oct 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight$212 → $198
27 Oct 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsBuy$196 → $194
22 Oct 2026HSBCInitiatesBuy$190
21 Oct 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight$227 → $226
16 Oct 2026CIBCInitiatesOutperformer—
5 Oct 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsOutperform$231 → $210
5 Oct 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsOutperform—
1 Oct 2026BernsteinReiteratesOutperform—
1 Oct 2026BernsteinReiteratesOutperform$181
24 Aug 2026MizuhoInitiatesOutperform$169
24 Aug 2026MizuhoInitiatesOutperform—
21 Aug 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight—
21 Aug 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight$212 → $227
19 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$222 → $221
19 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
28 July 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight—
28 July 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight$208 → $212

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

The AI build-out map

VST and 53 other companies make up Data centre power.

The model tests each one against its peers. 10 pass every test this week.

  • All 115 AI build-out companies, part by part, with what each one does.
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The AI build-out map
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  • AI cloud capacity

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  • AI chips

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  • AI networking and serversIn full

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Performance

VST vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 4 Nov 2026, Vistra Corp. returned −34.9% against +14.8% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

VST vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
60708090100110120Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26VSTS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

VST analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingThis fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−6.3%
Analysts raising
1
Analysts cutting
1
Fundamentals

Vistra Corp. (VST) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
20.3×

Cheaper than 37% of US stocks

Price / sales
2.1×

Cheaper than 50% of US stocks

Price / book
13.4×

Cheaper than 6% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
9.5×

Cheaper than 39% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−5.5%

Higher than 19% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−6.7%

Higher than 29% of US stocks

Gross margin
34.6%

Higher than 41% of US stocks

Operating margin
13.8%

Higher than 71% of US stocks

Net margin
11.6%

Higher than 72% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
43.0%

Higher than 92% of US stocks

Return on assets
5.9%

Higher than 81% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.8%

Higher than 68% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Vistra Corp. (VST) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Vistra Corp. has a market value of $40.4B and an enterprise value of $62.9B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $19.2B. The latest quarter shrank 5.5% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $2.2B, a 11.6% net margin.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $2.3B, after $2.9B of capital spending.

  • Vistra Corp. spent $1.1B on share buybacks and $500.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 336.0M.

  • Trailing P/E: 20.3×; forward P/E: 12.6× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.77%, paying out 15% of earnings.

  • Vistra Corp. employs 6,390 people — $3.0M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 5 Nov 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

VST vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelUtilities - Independent Power Producers
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
VSTVistra Corp.$40.4B41
CEGConstellation Energy Corp.$89.0B36
NRGNRG Energy, Inc.$17.9B27
TLNTalen Energy Corp.$14.9B18
OKLOOklo, Inc.$4.1B1
KENKenon Holdings Ltd.$3.3B21
WECWEC Energy Group, Inc.*$38.4B46

* Nearest Utilities names by size — few utilities - independent power producers companies of this scale trade in the US universe.

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Vistra Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest VST news & analysis

Steve Weiss Says the Midterms Just Put a Lid on AI Spending. Here's Who Could Get Hurt

24/7 Wall Street · 5 Nov 2026neutral

After Democrats swept the midterms, chipmakers barely moved while two stocks linked to AI data centers fell sharply. The article says a Texas permit freeze could explain the difference and potentially affect retirement portfolios.

Why it matters — The reported Texas permitting freeze may be relevant to VST watchers because the story links it to AI data-center investment, though the excerpt does not name VST.

AI Data Center Backlash Is Real. The Blue Wave Takes Out Energy Stocks.

Barrons · 4 Nov 2026negative

The headline says a “Blue Wave” has weighed on energy stocks, while the excerpt reports that newly elected governors in states including Texas are promising to pause data center development.

Why it matters — A proposed pause on data center development could matter to VST watchers because the item connects data center growth with energy stocks.

Vistra: Midterms Uncertainty Casts Dark Clouds - So Does The Chart (Rating Downgrade)

Seeking Alpha · 4 Nov 2026negative

Seeking Alpha downgraded Vistra to Hold, citing post-election regulatory risks and technical breakdowns despite undervalued fundamentals. The excerpt notes a Q2 expectations miss alongside solid operations and reaffirmed FY 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8–$7.6 billion.

Why it matters — VST watchers may weigh potential Texas data center moratoriums, volatile ERCOT pricing, and legislative uncertainty against the company’s reaffirmed guidance and operational performance.

Vistra Set for Q3 Earnings Release: Is the Stock a Buy, Sell or Hold?

Zacks Investment Research · 4 Nov 2026positive

Vistra is expected to report third-quarter 2026 results before market open on Nov. 6, with improvement expected in both revenue and earnings. The revenue consensus estimate is $7.44 billion, 49.75% above the year-ago reported figure.

Why it matters — VST watchers may note the expected year-over-year revenue growth and the upcoming earnings release.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about VST stock

What is the VST stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 23 Wall Street analysts covering Vistra Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $201, with estimates ranging from $106 to $306. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is VST stock a buy right now?

Of the 23 analysts covering Vistra Corp., 22 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Vistra Corp. 41 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 4 Nov 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank VST?

As at 4 Nov 2026, Vistra Corp. ranks 41 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Value (98 of 100).

Will VST stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 23 analysts implies +67.2% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Vistra Corp. 41 out of 100 as at 4 Nov 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the VST stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Vistra Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for VST are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $106 to $306 over the next 12 months.

How has VST stock performed over the past year?

Vistra Corp. returned -34.9% over the 12 months to 4 Nov 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Vistra Corp. do?

Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas.

What is the latest news on VST?

The most recent item we track (24/7 Wall Street, 5 Nov 2026): "Steve Weiss Says the Midterms Just Put a Lid on AI Spending. Here's Who Could Get Hurt". After Democrats swept the midterms, chipmakers barely moved while two stocks linked to AI data centers fell sharply. The article says a Texas permit freeze could explain the difference and potentially affect retirement portfolios.

Company

About Vistra Corp.

Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas. The company supplies electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through a portfolio of retail brands serving major U.S. markets. It also operates a large fleet of power generation assets that includes natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. Vistra Corp. participates in wholesale electricity markets while managing fuel procurement, commodity risk, and logistics across its generation business. Its operations are organized across Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure segments, reflecting its combined focus on customer supply, generation, market operations, and the managed decommissioning of retired facilities. The company plays an important role in providing dependable energy supply and retail electricity services across competitive power markets in the United States.

CEO Mr. James A. Burke CPA · 6,390 employees · United States · https://vistracorp.com