VSTUtilities · Utilities - Independent Power ProducersThe 20 Wall Street analysts covering Vistra Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $221 — +53.2% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 26 of 100 as at 2 Sept 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Vistra Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Quality (90): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.
Growth (6): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.
Size (5): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on VST, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +53.2% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 3 moved their price target up and 3 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 2026 | Mizuho | Initiates | Outperform | $169 |
| 21 Aug 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | $212 → $227 |
| 19 Aug 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | $222 → $221 |
| 28 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 28 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | $208 → $212 |
| 28 July 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $233 → $227 |
| 28 July 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 27 July 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 27 July 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | $230 → $222 |
| 15 July 2026 | Scotiabank | Maintains | Sector Outperform | — |
| 15 July 2026 | Scotiabank | Maintains | Sector Outperform | $293 → $298 |
| 4 May 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 30 Apr 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 19 Mar 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 27 Feb 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 10 Feb 2026 | Jefferies | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 20 Jan 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 12 Jan 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 12 Jan 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 12 Jan 2026 | Scotiabank | Maintains | Sector Outperform | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. VST appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 3 Sept 2026, Vistra Corp. returned −22.9% against +21.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 33% of US stocks
Cheaper than 47% of US stocks
Cheaper than 6% of US stocks
Cheaper than 36% of US stocks
Higher than 19% of US stocks
Higher than 29% of US stocks
Higher than 42% of US stocks
Higher than 71% of US stocks
Higher than 73% of US stocks
Higher than 92% of US stocks
Higher than 81% of US stocks
Higher than 12% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Vistra Corp. has a market value of $48.2B and an enterprise value of $70.7B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $19.2B. The latest quarter shrank 5.5% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $2.2B, a 11.6% net margin.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $2.3B, after $2.9B of capital spending.
Vistra Corp. spent $1.1B on share buybacks and $500.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 23.3×; forward P/E: 13.8× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.64%, paying out 15% of earnings.
Vistra Corp. employs 6,390 people — $3.0M of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
| Company | Market cap | TKN rank |
|---|---|---|
| VSTVistra Corp. | $48.2B | 26 |
| NRGNRG Energy, Inc. | $23.8B | 27 |
| CEGConstellation Energy Corp. | $105.1B | 30 |
| TLNTalen Energy Corp. | $13.8B | 29 |
| OKLOOklo, Inc. | $7.4B | 2 |
| KENKenon Holdings Ltd. | $3.4B | 18 |
| ETREntergy Corp.* | $47.7B | 32 |
* Nearest Utilities names by size — few utilities - independent power producers companies of this scale trade in the US universe.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Vistra Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Vistra's heavy hedging and 20-year nuclear power purchase agreements with AWS and Meta are designed to lock in revenues, steady cash flow, and support long-term growth.
Why it matters — A VST watcher would care because these hedging and long-term PPA strategies aim to provide revenue stability and support the company's long-term growth prospects.
Vistra CEO James Burke purchased 2,000 shares at $135.00 per share on August 24, 2026, for a total of $270,000. The purchase increases his total equity holdings by 0.16% to approximately 1.2 million shares, following a 29% decline in the stock.
Why it matters — VST watchers would care because an insider purchase by the CEO after a significant stock decline is notable for signals about leadership's view of the company.
Zacks Investment Research published a comparison of nuclear utility stocks CEG and Vistra (VST). The analysis highlights Vistra as standing out with stronger earnings growth, higher return on equity and margins, and a cheaper valuation, although it carries more debt.
Why it matters — A VST watcher would care because the piece highlights Vistra's comparative strengths in earnings growth, profitability, and valuation against a nuclear-sector peer.
Vistra has fallen nearly 30% over the past year, yet a prominent Wall Street firm has set a price target on the stock that implies triple-digit gains. The article examines the discrepancy between the stock's ongoing decline and the firm's bullish outlook for 2026.
Why it matters — Vistra watchers would care about the wide gap between the stock's significant one-year decline and the Wall Street firm's price target implying 120% returns, which highlights conflicting signals about the company's prospects.
Vistra reported second-quarter adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations rose 31% year over year to $1.77 billion. The company holds 20-year power agreements with Amazon Web Services and Meta covering more than 3,800 megawatts of nuclear capacity.
Why it matters — A VST watcher would care because rising power demand and long-term nuclear supply agreements with major tech customers support the company's growth outlook even as its stock sits well below its high.
The 20 Wall Street analysts covering Vistra Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $221, with estimates ranging from $106 to $305. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 20 analysts covering Vistra Corp., 19 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Vistra Corp. 26 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 2 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 2 Sept 2026, Vistra Corp. ranks 26 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (90 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 20 analysts implies +53.2% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Vistra Corp. 26 out of 100 as at 2 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Vistra Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for VST are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $106 to $305 over the next 12 months.
Vistra Corp. returned -22.9% over the 12 months to 3 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 2 Sept 2026): "Can Hedging and Long-Term PPAs Strengthen Vistra's Growth?". Vistra's heavy hedging and 20-year nuclear power purchase agreements with AWS and Meta are designed to lock in revenues, steady cash flow, and support long-term growth.
Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas. It serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers through retail electricity and natural gas sales while also operating a diversified generation fleet that includes natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage assets. The company’s business is organized across Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure segments, covering electricity generation, wholesale energy transactions, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, logistics, and the decommissioning of retired facilities. Vistra Corp. plays a significant role in the U.S. utilities market by linking customer energy supply with large-scale power production and asset management across multiple regions.
CEO Mr. James A. Burke CPA · 6,390 employees · United States · https://vistracorp.com
