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VST Stock Forecast: Vistra Corp. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 9 Oct 2026
$161
+3.42% on the day

The 21 Wall Street analysts covering Vistra Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $211 — +30.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 28 of 100 as at 10 Oct 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$54.2B
Ticker Nerd rank
28 / 100
Median analyst target
$211
Analysts covering
21
Revenue$4.0B−5.5% y/y
Operating income$553.0M
Net income$305.0M
Free cash flow$334.0M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+15.3%
1M
+7.0%
YTD
+0.5%
1Y
−22.7%
From 52W high
−23.0%
From 52W low
+20.2%
$134
$210
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

VST stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Vistra Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 10 Oct 2026
28 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Quality
90
Value
60
Accruals
57
Issuance
55
Revisions
48
Momentum
30
Volatility
7
Growth
6
Size
5

Quality (90): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.

Growth (6): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.

Size (5): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

VST stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on VST, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$100$150$200$250$300Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26VSTHigh $305Median $211Low $106

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says21 analysts
20 Buy0 Hold1 Sell
Low $106Median $211High $305

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +30.7% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 3 moved their price target up and 4 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
5 Oct 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsOutperform$231 → $210
1 Oct 2026BernsteinReiteratesOutperform$181
24 Aug 2026MizuhoInitiatesOutperform—
24 Aug 2026MizuhoInitiatesOutperform$169
21 Aug 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight$212 → $227
21 Aug 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight—
19 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
19 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$222 → $221
28 July 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight$208 → $212
28 July 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight—
28 July 2026UBSMaintainsBuy$233 → $227
28 July 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
27 July 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$230 → $222
27 July 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
15 July 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Outperform$293 → $298
15 July 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Outperform—
16 June 2026BernsteinInitiatesOutperform—
4 May 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
30 Apr 2026JP MorganMaintainsOverweight—
19 Mar 2026JP MorganMaintainsOverweight—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. VST appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

VST vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 9 Oct 2026, Vistra Corp. returned −22.7% against +17.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

VST vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
60708090100110120Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26VSTS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

VST analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−2.5%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
1
Fundamentals

Vistra Corp. (VST) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
26.3×

Cheaper than 29% of US stocks

Price / sales
2.8×

Cheaper than 42% of US stocks

Price / book
18.0×

Cheaper than 5% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
11.6×

Cheaper than 31% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−5.5%

Higher than 19% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−6.7%

Higher than 29% of US stocks

Gross margin
34.6%

Higher than 41% of US stocks

Operating margin
13.8%

Higher than 71% of US stocks

Net margin
11.6%

Higher than 73% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
43.0%

Higher than 92% of US stocks

Return on assets
5.9%

Higher than 81% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.6%

Higher than 66% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Vistra Corp. (VST) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Vistra Corp. has a market value of $54.2B and an enterprise value of $76.8B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $19.2B. The latest quarter shrank 5.5% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $2.2B, a 11.6% net margin.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $2.3B, after $2.9B of capital spending.

  • Vistra Corp. spent $1.1B on share buybacks and $500.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 336.0M.

  • Trailing P/E: 26.3×; forward P/E: 15.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.57%, paying out 15% of earnings.

  • Vistra Corp. employs 6,390 people — $3.0M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 12 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

VST vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelUtilities - Independent Power Producers
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
VSTVistra Corp.$54.2B
28
CEGConstellation Energy Corp.$108.0B
34
NRGNRG Energy, Inc.$23.2B
26
TLNTalen Energy Corp.$17.3B
25
OKLOOklo, Inc.$6.5B
2
KENKenon Holdings Ltd.$3.1B
21
SRESempra*$53.2B
42

* Nearest Utilities names by size — few utilities - independent power producers companies of this scale trade in the US universe.

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Vistra Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest VST news & analysis

Nuclear Sector Outlook: Tim Rotolo on Headwinds, AI Demand & Catalysts

ETF Trends · 9 Oct 2026neutral

ETF Trends reports that VettaFi spoke with Range Fund Holdings founder Tim Rotolo about the nuclear sector outlook, including recent headwinds, his view of 2026 as a “year of digestion rather than deterioration,” and demand drivers across the nuclear value chain.

Why it matters — The discussion of nuclear-sector headwinds and demand drivers provides context for VST watchers, though the excerpt does not mention Vistra specifically.

Top 3 Utilities Stocks That May Keep You Up At Night In October

Benzinga · 8 Oct 2026neutral

Benzinga identified three utility-sector stocks that may be flashing warning signs for investors who prioritize momentum, as of Oct. 8, 2026. The excerpt does not name the stocks or state whether Vistra is among them.

Why it matters — VST watchers may note the sector-level momentum warning, but the excerpt provides no company-specific information about Vistra.

Why Vistra Stock Popped on Tuesday

The Motley Fool · 6 Oct 2026positive

The Department of Energy is giving Vistra a $4.2 billion loan. The funds are intended to add 20 years of service life to existing nuclear power plants.

Why it matters — The loan and planned plant-life extensions are relevant to VST watchers tracking Vistra’s nuclear power operations.

Constellation Energy Soars 12% on Google Nuclear Deal for 890 MW; Vistra Jumps 8%, Talen Energy Climbs 7%

24/7 Wall Street · 6 Oct 2026positive

Constellation Energy rose 12% following a Google deal for 890 MW of nuclear power, while Vistra climbed 8% and Talen Energy gained 7%. The excerpt describes a 20-year commitment to firm, around-the-clock nuclear power and a repricing of merchant nuclear companies.

Why it matters — Vistra watchers may note the reported 8% gain alongside the market’s response to long-term demand for nuclear power.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about VST stock

What is the VST stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 21 Wall Street analysts covering Vistra Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $211, with estimates ranging from $106 to $305. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is VST stock a buy right now?

Of the 21 analysts covering Vistra Corp., 20 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Vistra Corp. 28 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 10 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank VST?

As at 10 Oct 2026, Vistra Corp. ranks 28 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (90 of 100).

Will VST stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 21 analysts implies +30.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Vistra Corp. 28 out of 100 as at 10 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the VST stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Vistra Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for VST are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $106 to $305 over the next 12 months.

How has VST stock performed over the past year?

Vistra Corp. returned -22.7% over the 12 months to 9 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Vistra Corp. do?

Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas.

What is the latest news on VST?

The most recent item we track (ETF Trends, 9 Oct 2026): "Nuclear Sector Outlook: Tim Rotolo on Headwinds, AI Demand & Catalysts". ETF Trends reports that VettaFi spoke with Range Fund Holdings founder Tim Rotolo about the nuclear sector outlook, including recent headwinds, his view of 2026 as a “year of digestion rather than deterioration,” and demand drivers across the nuclear value chain.

Company

About Vistra Corp.

Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas. The company supplies electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through a portfolio of retail brands serving major U.S. markets. It also operates a large fleet of power generation assets that includes natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. Vistra Corp. participates in wholesale electricity markets while managing fuel procurement, commodity risk, and logistics across its generation business. Its operations are organized across Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure segments, reflecting its combined focus on customer supply, generation, market operations, and the managed decommissioning of retired facilities. The company plays an important role in providing dependable energy supply and retail electricity services across competitive power markets in the United States.

CEO Mr. James A. Burke CPA · 6,390 employees · United States · https://vistracorp.com