TICKERNERD
Menu
VSTVSTUtilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers

VST Stock Forecast: Vistra Corp. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 14 Oct 2026
$152
−6.51% on the day

The 21 Wall Street analysts covering Vistra Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $211 — +39.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 27 of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$50.9B
Ticker Nerd rank
27 / 100
Median analyst target
$211
Analysts covering
21
Revenue$4.0B−5.5% y/y
Operating income$553.0M
Net income$305.0M
Free cash flow$334.0M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−9.0%
1M
+8.0%
YTD
−5.5%
1Y
−25.7%
From 52W high
−27.6%
From 52W low
+13.0%
$134
$210
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

VST stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Vistra Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 14 Oct 2026
27 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Quality
90
Value
62
Accruals
57
Issuance
55
Revisions
48
Momentum
26
Volatility
7
Growth
6
Size
5

Quality (90): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.

Growth (6): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.

Size (5): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

VST stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on VST, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$100$150$200$250$300Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26VSTHigh $305Median $211Low $106

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says21 analysts
20 Buy0 Hold1 Sell
Low $106Median $211High $305

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +39.0% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 3 moved their price target up and 4 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
5 Oct 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsOutperform$231 → $210
1 Oct 2026BernsteinReiteratesOutperform$181
24 Aug 2026MizuhoInitiatesOutperform—
24 Aug 2026MizuhoInitiatesOutperform$169
21 Aug 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight$212 → $227
21 Aug 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight—
19 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
19 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$222 → $221
28 July 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight$208 → $212
28 July 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight—
28 July 2026UBSMaintainsBuy$233 → $227
28 July 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
27 July 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$230 → $222
27 July 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
15 July 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Outperform$293 → $298
15 July 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Outperform—
16 June 2026BernsteinInitiatesOutperform—
4 May 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
30 Apr 2026JP MorganMaintainsOverweight—
19 Mar 2026JP MorganMaintainsOverweight—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. VST appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

VST vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 14 Oct 2026, Vistra Corp. returned −25.7% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

VST vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
60708090100110120Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26VSTS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

VST analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−2.5%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
1
Fundamentals

Vistra Corp. (VST) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
27.4×

Cheaper than 28% of US stocks

Price / sales
2.7×

Cheaper than 44% of US stocks

Price / book
17.0×

Cheaper than 6% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
11.1×

Cheaper than 33% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
−5.5%

Higher than 19% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−6.7%

Higher than 29% of US stocks

Gross margin
34.6%

Higher than 41% of US stocks

Operating margin
13.8%

Higher than 71% of US stocks

Net margin
11.6%

Higher than 73% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
43.0%

Higher than 92% of US stocks

Return on assets
5.9%

Higher than 81% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.6%

Higher than 67% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Vistra Corp. (VST) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Vistra Corp. has a market value of $50.9B and an enterprise value of $73.5B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $19.2B. The latest quarter shrank 5.5% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $2.2B, a 11.6% net margin.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $2.3B, after $2.9B of capital spending.

  • Vistra Corp. spent $1.1B on share buybacks and $500.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 336.0M.

  • Trailing P/E: 27.4×; forward P/E: 14.6× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.61%, paying out 15% of earnings.

  • Vistra Corp. employs 6,390 people — $3.0M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 15 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

VST vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelUtilities - Independent Power Producers
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
VSTVistra Corp.$50.9B
27
CEGConstellation Energy Corp.$101.3B
33
NRGNRG Energy, Inc.$21.7B
26
TLNTalen Energy Corp.$16.4B
26
OKLOOklo, Inc.$5.4B
2
KENKenon Holdings Ltd.$3.2B
21
ETREntergy Corp.*$49.9B
36

* Nearest Utilities names by size — few utilities - independent power producers companies of this scale trade in the US universe.

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Vistra Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest VST news & analysis

Vistra Stock Surged Following Its $4.2 Billion Federal Loan. With the Stock Down 23% Over the Past Year, Is It Time to Buy?

The Motley Fool · 15 Oct 2026positive

The Department of Energy announced a $4.2 billion loan to Vistra to upgrade and modernize its power-generation fleet and expand capacity. Vistra owns generation assets in several fast-growing U.S. data center markets.

Why it matters — The financing supports Vistra’s plans to increase capacity amid rising power demand, including in markets where data centers are expanding.

Got $5,000? 2 Stocks Supplying the AI Data Center Power Crunch.

The Motley Fool · 14 Oct 2026positive

The Motley Fool says Vistra’s profits are soaring as power demand reaches record highs across the mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Texas markets. The item also discusses GE Vernova’s backlog and gas-turbine services revenue.

Why it matters — A VST watcher may note the report’s link between rising regional power demand and Vistra’s reported profit growth.

The AI Data Center Race Heats Up: Three Winners Getting Paid Now, One Waiting for Next Year

24/7 Wall Street · 14 Oct 2026neutral

The article compares four companies betting on the AI data center boom, highlighting different timelines for potential paydays and differing risks. The provided excerpt does not identify the companies or specify their timelines.

Why it matters — A VST watcher may find the comparison relevant to the AI data center opportunity, though the excerpt provides no Vistra-specific details.

Vistra Bombed Over The Last Year: One Analyst Says The AI Power Play Will Gain 90% Within a Year

24/7 Wall Street · 13 Oct 2026positive

Vistra has lost nearly a fifth of its value over the past year, even as Wall Street continues to issue Buy ratings. One analyst cited in the article sees nearly 90% upside within a year, describing the company as an AI power play.

Why it matters — The item highlights a contrast between VST’s recent share-price decline and analysts’ bullish ratings and upside view.

Constellation's $4.3 Billion Google-Backed Upgrades vs. Vistra's $4.2 Billion Government Loan: Which Nuclear Plan Is Better for Shareholders?

The Motley Fool · 13 Oct 2026neutral

Constellation Energy can now fund investments in its nuclear capacity, while rival Vistra has potentially secured funding to expand and extend its existing nuclear generation. The headline cites a $4.3 billion Google-backed upgrade plan for Constellation and a $4.2 billion government loan for Vistra.

Why it matters — VST shareholders may track how the potential government funding supports Vistra’s nuclear operations relative to Constellation’s investment plan.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about VST stock

What is the VST stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 21 Wall Street analysts covering Vistra Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $211, with estimates ranging from $106 to $305. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is VST stock a buy right now?

Of the 21 analysts covering Vistra Corp., 20 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Vistra Corp. 27 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 14 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank VST?

As at 14 Oct 2026, Vistra Corp. ranks 27 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (90 of 100).

Will VST stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 21 analysts implies +39.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Vistra Corp. 27 out of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the VST stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Vistra Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for VST are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $106 to $305 over the next 12 months.

How has VST stock performed over the past year?

Vistra Corp. returned -25.7% over the 12 months to 14 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Vistra Corp. do?

Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas.

What is the latest news on VST?

The most recent item we track (The Motley Fool, 15 Oct 2026): "Vistra Stock Surged Following Its $4.2 Billion Federal Loan. With the Stock Down 23% Over the Past Year, Is It Time to Buy?". The Department of Energy announced a $4.2 billion loan to Vistra to upgrade and modernize its power-generation fleet and expand capacity. Vistra owns generation assets in several fast-growing U.S. data center markets.

Company

About Vistra Corp.

Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas. The company supplies electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through a portfolio of retail brands serving major U.S. markets. It also operates a large fleet of power generation assets that includes natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. Vistra Corp. participates in wholesale electricity markets while managing fuel procurement, commodity risk, and logistics across its generation business. Its operations are organized across Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure segments, reflecting its combined focus on customer supply, generation, market operations, and the managed decommissioning of retired facilities. The company plays an important role in providing dependable energy supply and retail electricity services across competitive power markets in the United States.

CEO Mr. James A. Burke CPA · 6,390 employees · United States · https://vistracorp.com