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AAAABasic Materials · Aluminum

AA Stock Forecast: Alcoa Corp. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 11 Sept 2026
$48
−0.08% on the day

The 13 Wall Street analysts covering Alcoa Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $60 — +23.3% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 40 of 100 as at 12 Sept 2026 — in the lower half.

Market cap
$12.7B
Ticker Nerd rank
40 / 100
Median analyst target
$60
Analysts covering
13
Revenue$4.0B+31.4% y/y
Operating income$714.0M
Net income$409.0M
Free cash flow$422.0M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−5.5%
1M
−10.8%
YTD
−8.7%
1Y
+50.6%
From 52W high
−42.3%
From 52W low
+55.7%
$31
$84
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

AA stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Alcoa Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 12 Sept 2026
40 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Value
87
Quality
77
Momentum
67
Issuance
67
Revisions
34
Growth
33
Volatility
29
Accruals
24
Size
13

Value (87): The shares cost little relative to the profits and assets behind them — which can mean the market is too gloomy, or that the business really is in trouble.

Accruals (24): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Size (13): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

AA stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on AA, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$30$40$50$60$70$80Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26AAHigh $80Median $60Low $50

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says13 analysts
8 Buy4 Hold1 Sell
Low $50Median $60High $80

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +23.3% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 0 moved their price target up and 4 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
22 July 2026Argus ResearchMaintainsBuy$73 → $55
17 July 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsMarket Perform$60 → $55
17 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$55 → $52
17 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight$72 → $71
9 July 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsUnderperform—
9 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
9 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
8 July 2026Morgan StanleyDowngradeEqual-Weight—
7 July 2026B. Riley SecuritiesMaintainsBuy—
1 July 2026Morgan StanleyReiteratesOverweight—
30 June 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
25 June 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
22 May 2026UBSUpgradeBuy—
7 May 2026Wells FargoUpgradeOverweight—
9 Apr 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsMarket Perform—
9 Apr 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
9 Apr 2026Morgan StanleyUpgradeOverweight—
7 Apr 2026B. Riley SecuritiesMaintainsBuy—
16 Mar 2026CitigroupMaintainsBuy—
13 Mar 2026JP MorganUpgradeNeutral—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. AA appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

AA vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 11 Sept 2026, Alcoa Corp. returned +50.6% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

AA vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
100150200250Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26AAS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

AA analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−10.5%
Analysts raising
1
Analysts cutting
8
Fundamentals

Alcoa Corp. (AA) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
10.0×

Cheaper than 59% of US stocks

Price / sales
0.9×

Cheaper than 71% of US stocks

Price / book
1.7×

Cheaper than 50% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
5.9×

Cheaper than 51% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
31.4%

Higher than 79% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
148.2%

Higher than 88% of US stocks

Gross margin
25.2%

Higher than 27% of US stocks

Operating margin
18.4%

Higher than 77% of US stocks

Net margin
9.4%

Higher than 68% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
18.2%

Higher than 79% of US stocks

Return on assets
6.5%

Higher than 83% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.8%

Higher than 18% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Alcoa Corp. (AA) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Alcoa Corp. has a market value of $12.7B and an enterprise value of $13.7B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $13.6B. The latest quarter grew 31.4% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $1.2B, a 9.2% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $4.86.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $352.0M, after $699.0M of capital spending.

  • Alcoa Corp. spent $105.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 263.9M.

  • Trailing P/E: 10.0×; forward P/E: 8.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.83%, paying out 8% of earnings.

  • Alcoa Corp. employs 14,900 people — $913K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 13 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

AA vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelAluminum
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
AAAlcoa Corp.$12.7B
40
CENXCentury Aluminum Co.$4.4B
61
CSTMConstellium SE$3.6B
98
KALUKaiser Aluminum Corp.$2.6B
96
RPMRPM International, Inc.*$12.8B
75
HLHecla Mining Co.*$13.3B
92
ALBAlbemarle Corp.*$13.8B
84

* Nearest Basic Materials names by size — few aluminum companies of this scale trade in the US universe.

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Alcoa Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest AA news & analysis

Alcoa Sees Aluminum Deficit, Strong Demand and Tariff Upside at Jefferies Conference

MarketBeat · 12 Sept 2026positive

At the Jefferies conference, Alcoa CFO Molly Beerman said the company is carrying momentum from the second quarter into the third quarter, supported by strong production, pricing realization, and demand from North American and European customers. Management also discussed an expected aluminum market deficit, strong demand, and potential tariff upside.

Why it matters — AA watchers would care because the CFO's outlook signals sustained operational strength and favorable market conditions for aluminum heading into the third quarter.

Do Options Traders Know Something About Alcoa Stock We Don't?

Zacks Investment Research · 11 Sept 2026neutral

A Zacks Investment Research article highlights recent unusual movements in the options market for Alcoa (AA) stock, suggesting investors should pay close attention to the shares based on options activity.

Why it matters — Options market movements can signal shifts in investor expectations about Alcoa's stock, making this worth monitoring for those following AA.

Alcoa Corporation (AA) Presents at Jefferies Global Industrials Conference 2026 Transcript

Seeking Alpha · 10 Sept 2026neutral

Alcoa Corporation presented at the Jefferies Global Industrials Conference 2026, with a transcript of the event published. The presentation marks Alcoa's participation in an industry conference where executives addressed attendees.

Why it matters — A presentation at a major industrials conference gives AA watchers insight into management's current outlook and commentary.

Alcoa Corporation Announces Pricing of Debt Offering to Finance Cash Consideration for Acquisition of South32's Bauxite, Alumina and Aluminum Assets

Business Wire · 9 Sept 2026neutral

Alcoa Corporation announced the pricing of a $2.6 billion senior notes offering consisting of $1.5 billion of 6.625% notes due 2034 issued by Alumina Pty Ltd and $1.1 billion of 6.875% notes due 2036 issued by Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V. The proceeds will be used to finance the cash consideration for Alcoa's acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets.

Why it matters — This debt offering details how Alcoa intends to fund the cash portion of its acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets, a significant corporate development for the company.

Alcoa Corporation Announces Proposed Debt Offering to Finance Cash Consideration for Acquisition of South32's Bauxite, Alumina and Aluminum Assets

Business Wire · 9 Sept 2026neutral

Alcoa Corporation announced a proposed offering of $2.6 billion in aggregate principal amount of senior notes, split between notes due 2034 issued by subsidiary Alumina Pty Ltd and notes due 2036 issued by subsidiary Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V. The proceeds are intended to finance the cash consideration for Alcoa's acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets.

Why it matters — This debt offering details how Alcoa plans to fund the cash portion of its acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets, a significant strategic transaction for the company.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about AA stock

What is the AA stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 13 Wall Street analysts covering Alcoa Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $60, with estimates ranging from $50 to $80. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is AA stock a buy right now?

Of the 13 analysts covering Alcoa Corp., 8 rate it a Buy, 4 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Alcoa Corp. 40 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 12 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank AA?

As at 12 Sept 2026, Alcoa Corp. ranks 40 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Value (87 of 100).

Will AA stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 13 analysts implies +23.3% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Alcoa Corp. 40 out of 100 as at 12 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the AA stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Alcoa Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for AA are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $50 to $80 over the next 12 months.

How has AA stock performed over the past year?

Alcoa Corp. returned +50.6% over the 12 months to 11 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Alcoa Corp. do?

Alcoa Corporation is a global aluminum and materials company focused on bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation. Its operations are organized around two main segments: Alumina and Aluminum.

What is the latest news on AA?

The most recent item we track (MarketBeat, 12 Sept 2026): "Alcoa Sees Aluminum Deficit, Strong Demand and Tariff Upside at Jefferies Conference". At the Jefferies conference, Alcoa CFO Molly Beerman said the company is carrying momentum from the second quarter into the third quarter, supported by strong production, pricing realization, and demand from North American and European customers. Management also discussed an expected aluminum market deficit, strong demand, and potential tariff upside.

Company

About Alcoa Corp.

Alcoa Corporation is a global aluminum and materials company focused on bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation. Its operations are organized around two main segments: Alumina and Aluminum. The Alumina segment centers on mining bauxite and refining it into smelter-grade and non-metallurgical alumina, while the Aluminum segment covers smelting, casting, and related energy assets that support production. Alcoa supplies products used across transportation, aerospace, construction, packaging, and industrial manufacturing, where lightweight and durable metal solutions are essential. The company also offers value-added cast products and low-carbon alumina and aluminum offerings under its Sustana portfolio, strengthening its role in industrial supply chains. Headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Alcoa Corporation operates across multiple countries and remains a significant supplier in the global metals market.

CEO Mr. William F. Oplinger · 14,900 employees · United States · https://www.alcoa.com