AABasic Materials · AluminumThe 13 Wall Street analysts covering Alcoa Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $60 — +14.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 38 of 100 as at 21 Aug 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Alcoa Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Value (87): The shares cost little relative to the profits and assets behind them — which can mean the market is too gloomy, or that the business really is in trouble.
Accruals (23): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Size (13): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on AA, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +14.7% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 0 moved their price target up and 4 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 July 2026 | Argus Research | Maintains | Buy | $73 → $55 |
| 17 July 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Market Perform | $60 → $55 |
| 17 July 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | $55 → $52 |
| 17 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $72 → $71 |
| 9 July 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Underperform | — |
| 9 July 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 9 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 8 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Downgrade | Equal-Weight | — |
| 7 July 2026 | B. Riley Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 1 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Reiterates | Overweight | — |
| 30 June 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 25 June 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 22 May 2026 | UBS | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 7 May 2026 | Wells Fargo | Upgrade | Overweight | — |
| 9 Apr 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Market Perform | — |
| 9 Apr 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 9 Apr 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | Overweight | — |
| 7 Apr 2026 | B. Riley Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 16 Mar 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 13 Mar 2026 | JP Morgan | Upgrade | Neutral | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. AA appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 57% of US stocks
Cheaper than 70% of US stocks
Cheaper than 49% of US stocks
Cheaper than 51% of US stocks
Higher than 79% of US stocks
Higher than 88% of US stocks
Higher than 28% of US stocks
Higher than 77% of US stocks
Higher than 69% of US stocks
Higher than 79% of US stocks
Higher than 83% of US stocks
Higher than 16% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
| Company | Market cap | TKN rank |
|---|---|---|
| AAAlcoa Corp. | $13.3B | 38 |
| CENXCentury Aluminum Co. | $4.3B | 62 |
| CSTMConstellium SE | $3.7B | 97 |
| KALUKaiser Aluminum Corp. | $2.5B | 95 |
| RPMRPM International, Inc.* | $13.9B | 79 |
| HLHecla Mining Co.* | $13.9B | 90 |
| EQXEquinox Gold Corp.* | $15.8B | 84 |
* Nearest Basic Materials names by size — few aluminum companies of this scale trade in the US universe.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Alcoa Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
On CNBC's "Mad Money Lightning Round," Jim Cramer commented on Fortinet, Inc., saying it is good, that he likes it, and that the company is "doing a good job."
Why it matters — The item concerns Fortinet and does not mention Alcoa Corp., so it carries no direct relevance for AA watchers.
Alcoa Corporation announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, payable on August 27, 2026 to stockholders of record as of August 11, 2026.
Why it matters — The declaration of a quarterly cash dividend signals the company's continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Zacks reported that unusual activity in Alcoa's options market suggests traders may be anticipating something about the stock that is not widely known.
Why it matters — AA watchers would care because options-market movements can sometimes signal upcoming shifts in a stock's direction before they become apparent to the broader market.
The 13 Wall Street analysts covering Alcoa Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $60, with estimates ranging from $50 to $80. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 13 analysts covering Alcoa Corp., 8 rate it a Buy, 4 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Alcoa Corp. 38 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 21 Aug 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 21 Aug 2026, Alcoa Corp. ranks 38 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Value (87 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 13 analysts implies +14.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Alcoa Corp. 38 out of 100 as at 21 Aug 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Alcoa Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for AA are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $50 to $80 over the next 12 months.
Alcoa Corp. returned +77.1% over the 12 months to 21 Aug 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Alcoa Corporation is a global aluminum company focused on the production of bauxite, alumina, and primary aluminum. Its operations cover the full upstream value chain, from mining bauxite ore and refining it into alumina to smelting, casting, and supplying aluminum products for industrial use.
The most recent item we track (Benzinga, 6 Aug 2026): "Jim Cramer Looked At This 'Not Great' Uranium Stock 'For Years'". On CNBC's "Mad Money Lightning Round," Jim Cramer commented on Fortinet, Inc., saying it is good, that he likes it, and that the company is "doing a good job."
Alcoa Corporation is a global aluminum company focused on the production of bauxite, alumina, and primary aluminum. Its operations cover the full upstream value chain, from mining bauxite ore and refining it into alumina to smelting, casting, and supplying aluminum products for industrial use. The company serves customers in transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other manufacturing sectors, where lightweight and durable metals are essential. Alcoa also operates energy assets that support its industrial operations and provide power in selected markets. With a business structure organized around Alumina and Aluminum segments, Alcoa Corporation plays an important role in the global materials market by supplying core inputs used across a wide range of downstream industries.
CEO Mr. William F. Oplinger · 14,900 employees · United States · https://www.alcoa.com