AABasic Materials · AluminumThe 14 Wall Street analysts covering Alcoa Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $55 — +40.4% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 44 of 100 as at 31 Oct 2026 — in the lower half.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Alcoa Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Value (96): The shares cost little relative to the profits and assets behind them — which can mean the market is too gloomy, or that the business really is in trouble.
Issuance (15): The company has been issuing shares or taking on financing, diluting existing holders.
Size (15): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on AA, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +40.4% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 1 moved their price target up and 9 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct 2026 | Argus Research | Downgrade | Hold | — |
| 20 Oct 2026 | B. Riley Securities | Maintains | Buy | $80 → $63 |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $76 → $56 |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Freedom Broker | Maintains | Buy | $76 → $62 |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Barclays | Initiates | Overweight | — |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Barclays | Initiates | Overweight | $55 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | $52 → $50 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $53 → $50 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 22 Sept 2026 | Freedom Broker | Maintains | Buy | $64 → $76 |
| 22 Sept 2026 | Freedom Broker | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 18 Sept 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $71 → $60 |
| 18 Sept 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 22 July 2026 | Argus Research | Maintains | Buy | $73 → $55 |
| 22 July 2026 | Argus Research | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 17 July 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Market Perform | — |
| 17 July 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Market Perform | $60 → $55 |
| 17 July 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | $55 → $52 |
| 17 July 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
AA appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
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Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 30 Oct 2026, Alcoa Corp. returned +7.7% against +12.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 63% of US stocks
Cheaper than 74% of US stocks
Cheaper than 62% of US stocks
Cheaper than 55% of US stocks
Higher than 73% of US stocks
Higher than 84% of US stocks
Higher than 27% of US stocks
Higher than 74% of US stocks
Higher than 71% of US stocks
Higher than 82% of US stocks
Higher than 86% of US stocks
Higher than 71% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Alcoa Corp. has a market value of $10.3B and an enterprise value of $10.8B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $13.6B. The latest quarter grew 23.7% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $1.2B, a 9.2% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $4.86.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $352.0M, after $699.0M of capital spending.
Alcoa Corp. spent $105.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 6.8×; forward P/E: 7.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 1.02%, paying out 7% of earnings.
Alcoa Corp. employs 14,900 people — $913K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
| Company | Market cap | TKN rank |
|---|---|---|
| AAAlcoa Corp. | $10.3B | 44 |
| CENXCentury Aluminum Co. | $3.3B | 56 |
| CSTMConstellium SE | $3.1B | 94 |
| KALUKaiser Aluminum Corp. | $1.9B | 78 |
| ALBAlbemarle Corp.* | $10.7B | 82 |
| SOLSSolstice Advanced Materials, Inc.* | $9.6B | 1 |
| HLHecla Mining Co.* | $9.1B | 87 |
* Nearest Basic Materials names by size — few aluminum companies of this scale trade in the US universe.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Alcoa Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Zacks Investment Research highlights recent movements in the options market for Alcoa (AA) and says investors should pay close attention to the stock.
Why it matters — AA watchers may want to follow the options-market activity noted in the item.
Seeking Alpha rates Alcoa Hold with a $49 per-share price target, citing robust Q3'26 results, strong aluminum pricing, and the expected benefits of its $4.1 billion AliGroup acquisition. The article also notes that price normalization could weigh on shares, while projected synergies, cash flow, asset monetization, and debt reduction support flexibility.
Why it matters — AA watchers may weigh the acquisition's expected $900 million in synergies and balance-sheet plans against the potential impact of normalized pricing on shares.
Alcoa shares had fallen nearly half from their spring peak, trading near $40 before the company reported Q3 2026 earnings after the market closed on Oct. 15. The headline says Alcoa beat earnings, but the excerpt provides no earnings details.
Why it matters — The report frames the earnings beat against a steep share-price decline and ongoing concerns about aluminum markets, factors AA watchers may weigh when assessing the update.
A pricing agency for sustainable metals linked to the London Metal Exchange published its first premiums in recent weeks for copper and aluminium.
Why it matters — The development concerns pricing for sustainable aluminium products, relevant to watchers of Alcoa.
Alcoa doubled its profit in Q3 and increased sales by 24%. Management maintained its shipment estimates for the rest of the year while warning of higher costs.
Why it matters — AA watchers may weigh the reported profit and sales growth alongside the outlook for shipments and higher costs.
The 14 Wall Street analysts covering Alcoa Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $55, with estimates ranging from $48 to $63. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 14 analysts covering Alcoa Corp., 9 rate it a Buy, 4 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Alcoa Corp. 44 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 31 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 31 Oct 2026, Alcoa Corp. ranks 44 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Value (96 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 14 analysts implies +40.4% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Alcoa Corp. 44 out of 100 as at 31 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Alcoa Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for AA are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $48 to $63 over the next 12 months.
Alcoa Corp. returned +7.7% over the 12 months to 30 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Alcoa Corporation is a global aluminum and materials company focused on bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation. Its operations are organized around two main segments: Alumina and Aluminum.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 25 Oct 2026): "Is the Options Market Predicting a Spike in Alcoa Stock?". Zacks Investment Research highlights recent movements in the options market for Alcoa (AA) and says investors should pay close attention to the stock.
Alcoa Corporation is a global aluminum and materials company focused on bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation. Its operations are organized around two main segments: Alumina and Aluminum. The Alumina segment centers on mining bauxite and refining it into smelter-grade and non-metallurgical alumina, while the Aluminum segment covers smelting, casting, and related energy assets that support production. Alcoa supplies products used across transportation, aerospace, construction, packaging, and industrial manufacturing, where lightweight and durable metal solutions are essential. The company also offers value-added cast products and low-carbon alumina and aluminum offerings under its Sustana portfolio, strengthening its role in industrial supply chains. Headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Alcoa Corporation operates across multiple countries and remains a significant supplier in the global metals market.
CEO Mr. William F. Oplinger · 14,900 employees · United States · https://www.alcoa.com
