AABasic Materials · AluminumThe 13 Wall Street analysts covering Alcoa Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $57 — +30.9% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 43 of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026 — in the lower half.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Alcoa Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Value (89): The shares cost little relative to the profits and assets behind them — which can mean the market is too gloomy, or that the business really is in trouble.
Volatility (23): The share price moves around a lot.
Size (14): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on AA, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +30.9% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 1 moved their price target up and 5 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sept 2026 | Freedom Broker | Maintains | Buy | $64 → $76 |
| 18 Sept 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $71 → $60 |
| 22 July 2026 | Argus Research | Maintains | Buy | $73 → $55 |
| 22 July 2026 | Argus Research | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 17 July 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Market Perform | — |
| 17 July 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Market Perform | $60 → $55 |
| 17 July 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | $55 → $52 |
| 17 July 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 17 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 17 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $72 → $71 |
| 9 July 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Underperform | — |
| 9 July 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 9 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 8 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Downgrade | Equal-Weight | — |
| 7 July 2026 | B. Riley Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 1 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Reiterates | Overweight | — |
| 30 June 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 25 June 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 8 June 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 22 May 2026 | UBS | Upgrade | Buy | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. AA appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 6 Oct 2026, Alcoa Corp. returned +28.8% against +17.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 60% of US stocks
Cheaper than 72% of US stocks
Cheaper than 52% of US stocks
Cheaper than 52% of US stocks
Higher than 79% of US stocks
Higher than 88% of US stocks
Higher than 27% of US stocks
Higher than 77% of US stocks
Higher than 68% of US stocks
Higher than 79% of US stocks
Higher than 83% of US stocks
Higher than 69% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Alcoa Corp. has a market value of $11.4B and an enterprise value of $12.3B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $13.6B. The latest quarter grew 31.4% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $1.2B, a 9.2% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $4.86.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $352.0M, after $699.0M of capital spending.
Alcoa Corp. spent $105.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 9.0×; forward P/E: 7.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.93%, paying out 8% of earnings.
Alcoa Corp. employs 14,900 people — $913K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
| Company | Market cap | TKN rank |
|---|---|---|
| AAAlcoa Corp. | $11.4B | 43 |
| CENXCentury Aluminum Co. | $3.7B | 62 |
| CSTMConstellium SE | $3.5B | 98 |
| KALUKaiser Aluminum Corp. | $2.5B | 96 |
| HLHecla Mining Co.* | $11.5B | 88 |
| ALBAlbemarle Corp.* | $12.5B | 84 |
| RPMRPM International, Inc.* | $12.6B | 67 |
* Nearest Basic Materials names by size — few aluminum companies of this scale trade in the US universe.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Alcoa Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Alcoa Corporation is scheduled to release its third-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Thursday, Oct. 15. The headline notes that analysts revised forecasts ahead of the earnings call.
Why it matters — AA watchers may follow the scheduled results and analyst forecast revisions for context ahead of the earnings call.
The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries index fell 1.2% on Friday as broad market weakness hit Australia's smaller listed companies, with uranium stocks among the early decliners. The index traded near 3,361, down about 40.7 points from its opening high of 3,401.7.
Why it matters — For investors tracking Alcoa Corp., this item reflects broader Australian small-cap market conditions through the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries index (XSO), though it does not directly reference Alcoa itself.
FG Nexus Inc. announced it has changed its name to FG Communities Holdings Inc. and will change its Nasdaq ticker symbols from FGNX and FGNXP to FGC and FGCPP. The company filed a Certificate of Amendment to its amended and restated articles of incorporation with the Nevada Secretary of State.
Why it matters — The item is a corporate identity change unrelated to Alcoa, so it has no direct bearing on AA shareholders or its operations.
Alcoa Corporation announced the closing of an offering of $2.6 billion in aggregate principal amount of senior notes, comprising $1.5 billion of 6.625% senior notes due 2034 issued by Alumina Pty Ltd and $1.1 billion of 6.875% senior notes due 2036 issued by Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V. The proceeds will finance the cash consideration for Alcoa's acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets.
Why it matters — The completed debt offering secures the funding needed to close Alcoa's acquisition of South32's assets, a step forward in a significant strategic transaction for the company.
Alcoa Corporation announced it will release its third quarter 2026 financial results on Thursday, October 15, 2026, after the close of NYSE trading, and will host a conference call that day at 5:00 p.m. EDT to discuss the results. The call will be webcast live via the company's website, alcoa.com.
Why it matters — This sets the schedule for AA's upcoming quarterly earnings announcement and conference call, which Alcoa watchers will monitor for third quarter performance details.
The 13 Wall Street analysts covering Alcoa Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $57, with estimates ranging from $50 to $80. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 13 analysts covering Alcoa Corp., 9 rate it a Buy, 3 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Alcoa Corp. 43 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 6 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 6 Oct 2026, Alcoa Corp. ranks 43 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Value (89 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 13 analysts implies +30.9% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Alcoa Corp. 43 out of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Alcoa Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for AA are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $50 to $80 over the next 12 months.
Alcoa Corp. returned +28.8% over the 12 months to 6 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Alcoa Corporation is a global aluminum and materials company focused on bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation. Its operations are organized around two main segments: Alumina and Aluminum.
The most recent item we track (Benzinga, 6 Oct 2026): "Alcoa Earnings Are Imminent; These Most Accurate Analysts Revise Forecasts Ahead Of Earnings Call". Alcoa Corporation is scheduled to release its third-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Thursday, Oct. 15. The headline notes that analysts revised forecasts ahead of the earnings call.
Alcoa Corporation is a global aluminum and materials company focused on bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation. Its operations are organized around two main segments: Alumina and Aluminum. The Alumina segment centers on mining bauxite and refining it into smelter-grade and non-metallurgical alumina, while the Aluminum segment covers smelting, casting, and related energy assets that support production. Alcoa supplies products used across transportation, aerospace, construction, packaging, and industrial manufacturing, where lightweight and durable metal solutions are essential. The company also offers value-added cast products and low-carbon alumina and aluminum offerings under its Sustana portfolio, strengthening its role in industrial supply chains. Headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Alcoa Corporation operates across multiple countries and remains a significant supplier in the global metals market.
CEO Mr. William F. Oplinger · 14,900 employees · United States · https://www.alcoa.com
