AAONIndustrials · Building Products & EquipmentThe 6 Wall Street analysts covering AAON, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $125 — +114.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 36 of 100 as at 4 Nov 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores AAON, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Growth (93): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.
Accruals (15): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on AAON, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +114.7% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 1 moved their price target up and 3 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | $125 → $115 |
| 15 Sept 2026 | DA Davidson | Assumes | Buy | $110 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform | $150 → $135 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | $145 → $125 |
| 23 July 2026 | Keybanc | Initiates | Sector Weight | — |
| 23 July 2026 | Keybanc | Initiates | Sector Weight | — |
| 3 Mar 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 3 Mar 2026 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | $115 → $118 |
| 3 Feb 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 14 Oct 2025 | Oppenheimer | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 30 Sept 2025 | Oppenheimer | Assumes | Outperform | $105 |
| 12 Aug 2025 | Baird | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 12 Aug 2025 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 16 June 2025 | Sidoti & Co. | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 11 June 2025 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 2 May 2025 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 28 Feb 2025 | Baird | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 28 Feb 2025 | CJS Securities | Upgrade | Market Outperform | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
The model tests each one against its peers. 10 pass every test this week.
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Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 4 Nov 2026, AAON, Inc. returned −35.0% against +14.8% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 21% of US stocks
Cheaper than 40% of US stocks
Cheaper than 17% of US stocks
Cheaper than 14% of US stocks
Higher than 92% of US stocks
Higher than 92% of US stocks
Higher than 26% of US stocks
Higher than 66% of US stocks
Higher than 66% of US stocks
Higher than 78% of US stocks
Higher than 88% of US stocks
Higher than 66% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
AAON, Inc. has a market value of $5.7B and an enterprise value of $6.2B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.9B. The latest quarter grew 101.2% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $159.3M, a 8.2% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.92.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$131.4M, after $203.6M of capital spending.
AAON, Inc. spent $3K on share buybacks and $32.7M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 36.4×; forward P/E: 19.4× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.58%, paying out 21% of earnings.
AAON, Inc. employs 5,897 people — $328K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own AAON, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
AAON announced that it will hold its third-quarter 2026 conference call and webcast on Monday, November 9, 2026, at 5:00 p.m.
Why it matters — AAON watchers may follow the scheduled call for the company’s third-quarter update.
Zacks Investment Research says AAON has what it describes as the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat ahead of its upcoming Q3 report. The item offers key expectations ahead of the release.
Why it matters — AAON watchers may find the preview relevant as they follow expectations ahead of the Q3 earnings release.
The Conestoga Small Cap Composite returned -11.22% net of fees in Q3 2026, versus -9.39% for the Russell 2000 Growth Index. AAON was listed among the portfolio’s five biggest laggards.
Why it matters — The update identifies AAON as one of the portfolio’s weakest-performing holdings during the quarter.
Baron Real Estate Fund’s Q3 2026 portfolio commentary said Airbnb shares performed well after strong second-quarter results and a confident growth outlook, while Mohawk contributed to performance. PENN Entertainment detracted amid broad weakness in gaming stocks.
Why it matters — The excerpt does not mention AAON, so it provides no company-specific portfolio activity or performance information for AAON watchers.
Baron Real Estate Income Fund initiated a position in AAON, Inc. after a disappointing second-quarter earnings result.
Why it matters — The fund’s reported new position is relevant to AAON watchers as an institutional portfolio change.
The 6 Wall Street analysts covering AAON, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $125, with estimates ranging from $110 to $154. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 6 analysts covering AAON, Inc., 5 rate it a Buy, 1 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks AAON, Inc. 36 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 4 Nov 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 4 Nov 2026, AAON, Inc. ranks 36 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (93 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 6 analysts implies +114.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks AAON, Inc. 36 out of 100 as at 4 Nov 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering AAON, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for AAON are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $110 to $154 over the next 12 months.
AAON, Inc. returned -35.0% over the 12 months to 4 Nov 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
AAON, Inc. is a commercial and industrial HVAC manufacturer that designs, engineers, manufactures, markets, and sells air conditioning and heating equipment.
The most recent item we track (PRNewsWire, 30 Oct 2026): "The Aaon Group Announces Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call and Webcast". AAON announced that it will hold its third-quarter 2026 conference call and webcast on Monday, November 9, 2026, at 5:00 p.m.
AAON, Inc. is a commercial and industrial HVAC manufacturer that designs, engineers, manufactures, markets, and sells air conditioning and heating equipment. Its product line includes rooftop units, air handling units, coils, geothermal heat units, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, controls, and specialized cooling systems used in data centers and cleanroom environments. The company serves building owners and operators across sectors such as commercial real estate, healthcare, education, manufacturing, and mission-critical facilities. AAON operates through three main segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX, which support its mix of standard, semi-custom, and custom HVAC solutions. Based in Tulsa, Oklahoma, AAON focuses on highly configurable equipment for indoor climate control, energy efficiency, and performance in demanding applications.
CEO Dr. Matthew J. Tobolski Ph.D., SE · 5,897 employees · United States · https://www.aaon.com
