TICKERNERD
Menu
AAONAAONIndustrials · Building Products & Equipment

AAON Stock Forecast: AAON, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 24 Sept 2026
$84
+2.32% on the day

The 6 Wall Street analysts covering AAON, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $138 — +63.2% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 34 of 100 as at 23 Sept 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$6.8B
Ticker Nerd rank
34 / 100
Median analyst target
$138
Analysts covering
6
Revenue$627.0M+101.2% y/y
Operating income$70.3M
Net income$56.7M
Free cash flow−$28.7M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+10.3%
1M
+10.9%
YTD
+10.9%
1Y
−7.0%
From 52W high
−43.0%
From 52W low
+15.0%
$73
$148
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

AAON stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores AAON, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 23 Sept 2026
34 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Growth
91
Revisions
81
Quality
54
Momentum
42
Issuance
30
Value
26
Size
19
Volatility
19
Accruals
15

Growth (91): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.

Accruals (15): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

AAON stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on AAON, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$60$80$100$120$140$160Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26AAONHigh $154Median $138Low $110

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says6 analysts
5 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Low $110Median $138High $154

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +63.2% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 1 moved their price target up and 2 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
15 Sept 2026DA DavidsonAssumesBuy$110
11 Aug 2026BairdMaintainsOutperform$150 → $135
11 Aug 2026BairdMaintainsOutperform—
11 Aug 2026OppenheimerMaintainsOutperform$145 → $125
11 Aug 2026OppenheimerMaintainsOutperform—
23 July 2026KeybancInitiatesSector Weight—
23 July 2026KeybancInitiatesSector Weight—
3 Mar 2026OppenheimerMaintainsOutperform—
3 Mar 2026OppenheimerMaintainsOutperform$115 → $118
3 Feb 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
14 Oct 2025OppenheimerMaintainsOutperform—
30 Sept 2025OppenheimerAssumesOutperform$105
12 Aug 2025BairdMaintainsBuy—
12 Aug 2025DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
16 June 2025Sidoti & Co.UpgradeBuy—
11 June 2025BairdMaintainsOutperform—
2 May 2025BairdMaintainsOutperform—
28 Feb 2025BairdMaintainsOutperform—
28 Feb 2025CJS SecuritiesUpgradeMarket Outperform—
28 Feb 2025DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. AAON appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

AAON vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 24 Sept 2026, AAON, Inc. returned −7.0% against +17.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

AAON vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
80100120140160Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26AAONS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

AAON analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+4.3%
Analysts raising
4
Analysts cutting
0
Fundamentals

AAON, Inc. (AAON) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
44.3×

Cheaper than 18% of US stocks

Price / sales
3.6×

Cheaper than 38% of US stocks

Price / book
6.9×

Cheaper than 16% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
24.1×

Cheaper than 13% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
101.2%

Higher than 93% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
265.8%

Higher than 92% of US stocks

Gross margin
24.3%

Higher than 26% of US stocks

Operating margin
11.0%

Higher than 65% of US stocks

Net margin
8.2%

Higher than 66% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
17.3%

Higher than 78% of US stocks

Return on assets
8.2%

Higher than 88% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.5%

Higher than 10% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

AAON, Inc. (AAON) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • AAON, Inc. has a market value of $6.8B and an enterprise value of $7.2B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.9B. The latest quarter grew 101.2% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $159.3M, a 8.2% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.92.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$131.4M, after $203.6M of capital spending.

  • AAON, Inc. spent $3K on share buybacks and $32.7M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 82.4M.

  • Trailing P/E: 44.3×; forward P/E: 24.0× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.48%, paying out 21% of earnings.

  • AAON, Inc. employs 5,897 people — $328K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 24 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

AAON vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelBuilding Products & Equipment
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
AAONAAON, Inc.$6.8B
34
BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc.$6.5B
39
AWIArmstrong World Industries, Inc.$7.1B
63
SPXCSPX Technologies, Inc.$8.7B
72
LPXLouisiana-Pacific Corp.$4.8B
18
FBINFortune Brands Innovations, Inc.$4.7B
46
OCOwens Corning$10.1B
63

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own AAON, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest AAON news & analysis

Baron Real Estate Fund Q2 2026 Portfolio Activity

Seeking Alpha · 16 Sept 2026positive

In the second quarter, shares of AAON, Inc. rose following an exceptionally strong earnings report that showed drastically faster growth than expected in its data center business, BasX. The report came as part of Baron Real Estate Fund's Q2 2026 portfolio activity update.

Why it matters — A AAON watcher would care because the strength of the BasX data center segment was a key driver of the company's quarterly share performance.

AAON, Inc.'s Growth Makes 23x 2027 Earnings Look Reasonable

Seeking Alpha · 14 Sept 2026positive

AAON shares have fallen about 47% from highs, yet underlying demand and backlog remain robust, particularly in its BASX data-center segment. Despite gross margin pressures from capacity expansion and startup costs, AAON raised its 2026 sales-growth outlook to 55%-60% while maintaining a $2B backlog, with management expecting visible recovery by 2027 as Memphis utilization improves.

Why it matters — AAON watchers would care because the article highlights a major upgrade in sales-growth guidance and a strong data-center backlog, indicating robust demand that could offset near-term margin and cash-flow pressures.

AAON Introduces The Aaon Group as Its New Enterprise Identity

PRNewsWire · 21 Aug 2026neutral

AAON has introduced "The Aaon Group" as its new enterprise identity, a change that brings greater clarity to the company's evolution into a multi-brand, multi-market enterprise. The announcement was made from Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Why it matters — AAON watchers would care because the rebranding signals how the company is positioning its structure and identity as it expands across multiple brands and markets.

Wasatch U.S. Select Fund Q2 2026 Portfolio Update

Seeking Alpha · 18 Aug 2026neutral

The Wasatch U.S. Select Fund posted a 12.46% return for Q2 2026, trailing the Russell 2500 Growth Index's 24.02% gain. The fund attributed underperformance to a market favoring low-quality companies and to specific holdings that lost ground, with Ensign Group cited as the largest detractor.

Why it matters — The update provides context on the fund's performance and holdings, which AAON watchers may follow given the company's potential presence in the portfolio.

AAON Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend

PRNewsWire · 13 Aug 2026neutral

AAON, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors has declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, payable on September 25, 2026, to stockholders of record as of September 4, 2026.

Why it matters — AAON watchers would care because the continuation of the quarterly dividend signals the company's ongoing commitment to returning cash to shareholders.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about AAON stock

What is the AAON stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 6 Wall Street analysts covering AAON, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $138, with estimates ranging from $110 to $154. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is AAON stock a buy right now?

Of the 6 analysts covering AAON, Inc., 5 rate it a Buy, 1 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks AAON, Inc. 34 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 23 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank AAON?

As at 23 Sept 2026, AAON, Inc. ranks 34 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (91 of 100).

Will AAON stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 6 analysts implies +63.2% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks AAON, Inc. 34 out of 100 as at 23 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the AAON stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering AAON, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for AAON are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $110 to $154 over the next 12 months.

How has AAON stock performed over the past year?

AAON, Inc. returned -7.0% over the 12 months to 24 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does AAON, Inc. do?

AAON, Inc. is a commercial and industrial HVAC manufacturer that designs, engineers, manufactures, markets, and sells air conditioning and heating equipment.

What is the latest news on AAON?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 16 Sept 2026): "Baron Real Estate Fund Q2 2026 Portfolio Activity". In the second quarter, shares of AAON, Inc. rose following an exceptionally strong earnings report that showed drastically faster growth than expected in its data center business, BasX. The report came as part of Baron Real Estate Fund's Q2 2026 portfolio activity update.

Company

About AAON, Inc.

AAON, Inc. is a commercial and industrial HVAC manufacturer that designs, engineers, manufactures, markets, and sells air conditioning and heating equipment. Its product line includes rooftop units, air handling units, coils, geothermal heat units, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, controls, and specialized cooling systems used in data centers and cleanroom environments. The company serves building owners and operators across sectors such as commercial real estate, healthcare, education, manufacturing, and mission-critical facilities. AAON operates through three main segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX, which support its mix of standard, semi-custom, and custom HVAC solutions. Based in Tulsa, Oklahoma, AAON focuses on highly configurable equipment for indoor climate control, energy efficiency, and performance in demanding applications.

CEO Dr. Matthew J. Tobolski Ph.D., SE · 5,897 employees · United States · https://www.aaon.com