AFGFinancial Services · Insurance - Property & CasualtyThe 7 Wall Street analysts covering American Financial Group, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $152 — -2.1% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 79 of 100 as at 4 Nov 2026 — inside the top quartile. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores American Financial Group, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Growth (84): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.
Value (41): The shares cost a lot relative to the profits and assets behind them.
Size (13): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on AFG, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −2.1% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 4 moved their price target up and 2 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | $153 → $147 |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $175 → $166 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | $148 → $153 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | — |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Neutral | $140 → $156 |
| 9 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 9 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $158 → $173 |
| 8 July 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | — |
| 8 July 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | $140 → $148 |
| 26 May 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 6 May 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 1 May 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 9 Apr 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 25 Mar 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | — |
| 5 Feb 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 15 Jan 2026 | Wells Fargo | Initiates | Overweight | — |
| 6 Nov 2025 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 12 Aug 2025 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | — |
| 11 Aug 2025 | Jefferies | Maintains | Hold | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
AFG appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
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Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 4 Nov 2026, American Financial Group, Inc. returned +24.0% against +14.8% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 49% of US stocks
Cheaper than 57% of US stocks
Cheaper than 33% of US stocks
Cheaper than 40% of US stocks
Higher than 42% of US stocks
Higher than 72% of US stocks
Higher than 75% of US stocks
Higher than 73% of US stocks
Higher than 81% of US stocks
Higher than 63% of US stocks
Higher than 83% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
American Financial Group, Inc. has a market value of $12.8B and an enterprise value of $13.2B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $8.2B. The latest quarter grew 5.8% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $953.0M, a 11.7% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $11.44.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.6B.
American Financial Group, Inc. spent $88.0M on share buybacks and $576.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 13.5×; forward P/E: 12.8× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 2.51%, paying out 30% of earnings.
American Financial Group, Inc. employs 8,500 people — $962K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own American Financial Group, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
American Financial Group reported record third-quarter core operating results, executives said on its third-quarter 2026 earnings call. They cited underwriting profitability, premium growth and higher property and casualty investment income.
Why it matters — The update highlights the underwriting, premium and investment-income factors supporting AFG's reported quarterly results.
American Financial Group reported Q3 2026 net earned premium growth of 7.5% year over year and a 22% ROE, while underwriting profitability narrowed as claims costs rose. Investment income increased, aided by higher rates and a one-time asset sale.
Why it matters — AFG watchers may note the contrast between strong premium growth and investment income and pressure on underwriting profitability, alongside the excerpt’s description of modest growth prospects.
American Financial Group held its Q3 2026 earnings call on November 4, 2026. Company participants included co-CEOs Carl and Craig Lindner and CFO Brian Hertzman.
Why it matters — The excerpt identifies AFG’s Q3 call and its participants but provides no financial results or discussion details.
American Financial Group reported quarterly earnings of $3.97 per share, above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.50 and up from $2.69 per share a year earlier.
Why it matters — The results show AFG exceeded the cited earnings estimate and reported higher per-share earnings than a year ago.
A Zacks Investment Research headline says American Financial’s Q3 2026 results are being considered alongside key metrics compared with Wall Street estimates and year-ago values. The excerpt does not provide the metrics or comparison results.
Why it matters — AFG watchers may find these comparisons useful for assessing quarterly performance, though the excerpt gives no specific figures or outcomes.
The 7 Wall Street analysts covering American Financial Group, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $152, with estimates ranging from $143 to $170. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 7 analysts covering American Financial Group, Inc., 2 rate it a Buy, 5 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks American Financial Group, Inc. 79 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 4 Nov 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 4 Nov 2026, American Financial Group, Inc. ranks 79 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (84 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 7 analysts implies -2.1% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks American Financial Group, Inc. 79 out of 100 as at 4 Nov 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering American Financial Group, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for AFG are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $143 to $170 over the next 12 months.
American Financial Group, Inc. returned +24.0% over the 12 months to 4 Nov 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
American Financial Group, Inc. is an insurance holding company headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
The most recent item we track (MarketBeat, 4 Nov 2026): "American Financial Group Q3 Earnings Call Highlights". American Financial Group reported record third-quarter core operating results, executives said on its third-quarter 2026 earnings call. They cited underwriting profitability, premium growth and higher property and casualty investment income.
American Financial Group, Inc. is an insurance holding company headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio. Through Great American Insurance Group, the company focuses on specialty property and casualty insurance for businesses, with products that serve commercial property, transportation, casualty, financial, and other niche insurance needs. Its operations are organized around property and casualty insurance and related financial activities, supporting clients through underwriting expertise and specialized coverage solutions. American Financial Group plays a notable role in the U.S. insurance market by targeting selected commercial segments where tailored products and disciplined risk management are central to its business model.
CEO Mr. Stephen Craig Lindner · 8,500 employees · United States · https://www.afginc.com
