AJGFinancial Services · Insurance BrokersThe 22 Wall Street analysts covering Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. hold a median 12-month price target of $289 — +23.3% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 13 of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Growth (61): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.
Value (9): The shares cost a lot relative to the profits and assets behind them.
Size (4): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on AJG, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +23.3% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 6 moved their price target up and 5 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sept 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | $290 → $285 |
| 24 Sept 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Outperform | $310 → $290 |
| 24 Sept 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $296 → $291 |
| 16 Sept 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Outperform | $300 → $292 |
| 16 Sept 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | $270 → $290 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | Argus Research | Maintains | Buy | $267 → $300 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | Argus Research | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 4 Aug 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 4 Aug 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Buy | $250 → $285 |
| 3 Aug 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $291 → $299 |
| 3 Aug 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 3 Aug 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $299 → $296 |
| 3 Aug 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 31 July 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | — |
| 31 July 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | $261 → $271 |
| 31 July 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 31 July 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Outperform | $287 → $300 |
| 31 July 2026 | Piper Sandler | Maintains | Overweight | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. AJG appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 8 Oct 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. returned −22.9% against +16.2% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 20% of US stocks
Cheaper than 31% of US stocks
Cheaper than 37% of US stocks
Cheaper than 19% of US stocks
Higher than 78% of US stocks
Higher than 25% of US stocks
Higher than 50% of US stocks
Higher than 78% of US stocks
Higher than 71% of US stocks
Higher than 56% of US stocks
Higher than 61% of US stocks
Higher than 72% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. has a market value of $58.9B and an enterprise value of $71.7B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $15.8B. The latest quarter grew 30.9% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $1.6B, a 10.0% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $6.03.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $2.3B, after $164.0M of capital spending.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. spent $693.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 37.7×; forward P/E: 15.3× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 1.23%, paying out 45% of earnings.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. employs 67,456 people — $234K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. announced the date of its third-quarter 2026 earnings release and conference call.
Why it matters — The announcement tells AJG watchers when the company plans to share quarterly results and discuss them on a call.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. announced that it acquired Ornella Underwriting Limited. The excerpt provides no additional details about the transaction.
Why it matters — The acquisition is relevant to AJG watchers as a reported corporate transaction, though the excerpt does not describe its terms or expected effects.
Arthur J. Gallagher expanded its marine risk management capabilities through a deal with Winter & Co. Solicitors, adding maritime legal expertise to Gallagher Bassett and strengthening specialty services.
Why it matters — AJG watchers may note the addition of maritime legal expertise to the company's marine risk management and specialty-service offerings.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. announced it has acquired Winter & Co Solicitors LLP, a law firm, as announced from its headquarters in Rolling Meadows, Illinois, on Oct. 6, 2026. The acquisition represents an expansion of Gallagher's operations.
Why it matters — The acquisition indicates Gallagher is broadening its service capabilities and legal-related offerings, which could expand its business footprint and client reach.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. announced the acquisition of Albany Insurance Services Limited, based in Rolling Meadows, Ill. The acquisition was announced on Oct. 1, 2026, according to a PRNewswire release.
Why it matters — The acquisition expands Gallagher's operations, indicating continued growth through strategic deals that could broaden its service and market presence.
The 22 Wall Street analysts covering Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. have a median 12-month price target of $289, with estimates ranging from $250 to $388. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 22 analysts covering Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., 16 rate it a Buy, 6 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. 13 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 8 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 8 Oct 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. ranks 13 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (61 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 22 analysts implies +23.3% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. 13 out of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for AJG are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $250 to $388 over the next 12 months.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. returned -22.9% over the 12 months to 8 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
The most recent item we track (PRNewsWire, 8 Oct 2026): "Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Announces Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release And Conference Call Date". Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. announced the date of its third-quarter 2026 earnings release and conference call.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is an international insurance brokerage, risk management, and consulting company that serves corporations, public entities, nonprofit organizations, and individuals. Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. provides retail and wholesale insurance brokerage, reinsurance brokerage, employee benefits support, and third-party claims administration, helping clients place specialized coverage and manage complex risk exposures. Its services also include loss control consulting, risk control, property appraisal, claims settlement, and information management. The company operates through Brokerage and Risk Management segments, supported by a broad network of brokers and consultants across global markets. Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. plays a significant role in the insurance value chain by connecting clients with underwriting markets and delivering tailored programs for property, casualty, and benefits-related needs. Headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is widely recognized for its diversified service model and international reach.
CEO Mr. J. Patrick Gallagher Jr. · 67,456 employees · United States · https://www.ajg.com
