ARCOConsumer Cyclical · RestaurantsThe 9 Wall Street analysts covering Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $12 — +40.8% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 85 of 100 as at 5 Sept 2026 — inside the top quartile. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Growth (93): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.
Accruals (26): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ARCO, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +40.8% from it.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 July 2026 | JP Morgan | Upgrade | Overweight | $9.00 → $11 |
| 11 Nov 2025 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | $8.80 → $8.70 |
| 11 Nov 2025 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 3 Nov 2025 | Banco Bradesco BBI S.A | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 2 July 2025 | JP Morgan | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 13 Sept 2024 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 1 Dec 2023 | Jefferies | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 10 Aug 2023 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 7 Aug 2023 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 18 May 2023 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 6 Feb 2023 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 27 Sept 2022 | Barclays | Initiates | Overweight | — |
| 17 Aug 2022 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 15 June 2022 | Bradesco Corretora | Upgrade | Outperform | — |
| 24 Mar 2022 | B of A Securities | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 23 Feb 2022 | Credit Suisse | Upgrade | Outperform | — |
| 19 Jan 2022 | Goldman Sachs | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 23 Apr 2021 | Goldman Sachs | Initiates | Neutral | — |
| 28 Jan 2021 | Bradesco | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 28 Jan 2021 | Bradesco Corretora | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. ARCO appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 4 Sept 2026, Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. returned +22.1% against +20.0% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 64% of US stocks
Cheaper than 87% of US stocks
Cheaper than 45% of US stocks
Cheaper than 51% of US stocks
Higher than 61% of US stocks
Higher than 84% of US stocks
Higher than 11% of US stocks
Higher than 56% of US stocks
Higher than 60% of US stocks
Higher than 90% of US stocks
Higher than 85% of US stocks
Higher than 70% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. has a market value of $1.7B and an enterprise value of $3.7B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $5.0B. The latest quarter grew 14.3% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $257.1M, a 5.2% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.22.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $99.1M, after $263.1M of capital spending.
Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. spent $54.8M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 6.6×; forward P/E: 9.6× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 3.43%, paying out 21% of earnings.
Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. employs 0 people.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. released the transcript of its Q2 2026 earnings call, as published by Seeking Alpha. The transcript covers the company's second-quarter 2026 results and management discussion.
Why it matters — For ARCO watchers, the earnings call transcript offers direct insight into the company's second-quarter performance and management commentary.
Arcos Dorados reported record second-quarter revenue, adjusted EBITDA, net income and earnings per share, driven by digital sales growth, market-share gains and FIFA World Cup promotions that helped offset uneven consumer conditions across Latin America.
Why it matters — The record financial results indicate that Arcos Dorados' digital strategy and promotional activities are successfully driving growth despite a challenging regional consumer environment.
Arcos Dorados reported Q2 earnings of $0.22 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.15 per share and up from $0.11 per share in the same quarter last year.
Why it matters — The earnings beat shows the company performed better than analysts expected in the quarter.
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. reported its unaudited financial results for the second quarter of 2026, covering the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. CEO Luis Raganato noted steps taken to improve the resilience of the company's business model.
Why it matters — The report provides a periodic update on the financial performance of Latin America's largest restaurant chain and the world's largest independent McDonald's franchisee.
Arcos Dorados is scheduled to report earnings next week, and Wall Street expects earnings growth. According to Zacks Investment Research, the company does not possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report.
Why it matters — An ARCO watcher would care because the upcoming earnings report and whether it meets Wall Street expectations will be a key development for the company.
The 9 Wall Street analysts covering Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $12, with estimates ranging from $9.1 to $14. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 9 analysts covering Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc., 8 rate it a Buy, 1 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. 85 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 5 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 5 Sept 2026, Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. ranks 85 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (93 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 9 analysts implies +40.8% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. 85 out of 100 as at 5 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ARCO are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $9.1 to $14 over the next 12 months.
Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. returned +22.1% over the 12 months to 4 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Class A is a restaurant franchise operator that manages McDonald’s-branded restaurants across Latin America and the Caribbean.
The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 14 Aug 2026): "Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript". Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. released the transcript of its Q2 2026 earnings call, as published by Seeking Alpha. The transcript covers the company's second-quarter 2026 results and management discussion.
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Class A is a restaurant franchise operator that manages McDonald’s-branded restaurants across Latin America and the Caribbean. The company serves customers through company-operated locations and franchised restaurants, with a business model centered on quick-service dining, menu distribution, and local restaurant management. Its operations span multiple countries and territories, giving it a broad regional footprint in the fast-food market. Arcos Dorados also supports its restaurant network through supply chain coordination, real estate activities, training, and operational services that help maintain a consistent customer experience. As the largest independent McDonald’s franchisee in the world, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Class A plays a significant role in one of the most recognizable global restaurant systems while focusing on consumer demand for convenient, standardized food service across diverse Latin American markets.
CEO Mr. Marcelo Rabach · Uruguay · https://www.arcosdorados.com
