ARCOConsumer Cyclical · RestaurantsThe 9 Wall Street analysts covering Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $12 — +43.4% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 82 of 100 as at 22 Oct 2026 — inside the top quartile. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Growth (92): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.
Accruals (26): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ARCO, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +43.4% from it.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 July 2026 | JP Morgan | Upgrade | Overweight | $9.00 → $11 |
| 11 Nov 2025 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | $8.80 → $8.70 |
| 11 Nov 2025 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 3 Nov 2025 | Banco Bradesco BBI S.A | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 2 July 2025 | JP Morgan | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 13 Sept 2024 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 1 Dec 2023 | Jefferies | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 10 Aug 2023 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 7 Aug 2023 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 18 May 2023 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 6 Feb 2023 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 27 Sept 2022 | Barclays | Initiates | Overweight | — |
| 17 Aug 2022 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 15 June 2022 | Bradesco Corretora | Upgrade | Outperform | — |
| 24 Mar 2022 | B of A Securities | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 23 Feb 2022 | Credit Suisse | Upgrade | Outperform | — |
| 19 Jan 2022 | Goldman Sachs | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 23 Apr 2021 | Goldman Sachs | Initiates | Neutral | — |
| 28 Jan 2021 | Bradesco | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 28 Jan 2021 | Bradesco Corretora | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
ARCO appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 22 Oct 2026, Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. returned +17.1% against +15.6% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 64% of US stocks
Cheaper than 87% of US stocks
Cheaper than 42% of US stocks
Cheaper than 51% of US stocks
Higher than 61% of US stocks
Higher than 83% of US stocks
Higher than 11% of US stocks
Higher than 56% of US stocks
Higher than 60% of US stocks
Higher than 90% of US stocks
Higher than 85% of US stocks
Higher than 89% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. has a market value of $1.7B and an enterprise value of $3.6B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $5.0B. The latest quarter grew 14.3% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $257.1M, a 5.2% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.22.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $99.1M, after $263.1M of capital spending.
Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. spent $54.8M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 6.5×; forward P/E: 9.0× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 3.51%, paying out 21% of earnings.
Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. employs 0 people.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Zacks Investment Research highlighted ARCO among five stocks with attractive EV-to-EBITDA ratios and strong earnings outlooks.
Why it matters — The item presents ARCO favorably based on its valuation ratio and earnings outlook.
Zacks Investment Research says Arcos Dorados (ARCO) is well positioned to outperform the market, citing above-average growth in its financials. The headline presents three reasons to view the company as a solid growth stock.
Why it matters — ARCO watchers may note the article’s positive assessment of the company’s financial growth.
Zacks reports that the consensus price target for Arcos Dorados (ARCO) implies 31.6% upside potential. It notes that this metric has limited empirical effectiveness, while upward earnings estimate revisions could indicate near-term upside.
Why it matters — ARCO watchers may want to consider the price-target consensus alongside the article’s caveat about its reliability and the trend in earnings estimates.
Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. (ARCO) was added to the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) list on October 21, 2026, alongside TTDKY, CHRD, PEB and LMB.
Why it matters — ARCO watchers may note the company’s inclusion in the Zacks list.
Arcos Dorados will release its third-quarter 2026 results before market open on November 12, 2026, and hold a webcast that day. CEO Luis Raganato and senior management will host, followed by a question-and-answer period.
Why it matters — ARCO watchers can note when the company will publish results and discuss them with the investment community.
The 9 Wall Street analysts covering Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $12, with estimates ranging from $8.55 to $14. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 9 analysts covering Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc., 8 rate it a Buy, 1 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. 82 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 22 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 22 Oct 2026, Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. ranks 82 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (92 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 9 analysts implies +43.4% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. 82 out of 100 as at 22 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ARCO are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $8.55 to $14 over the next 12 months.
Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. returned +17.1% over the 12 months to 22 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Class A is a restaurant franchise operator that manages McDonald’s-branded restaurants across Latin America and the Caribbean.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 22 Oct 2026): "5 Value Stocks With Attractive EV-to-EBITDA Ratios to Scoop Up". Zacks Investment Research highlighted ARCO among five stocks with attractive EV-to-EBITDA ratios and strong earnings outlooks.
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Class A is a restaurant franchise operator that manages McDonald’s-branded restaurants across Latin America and the Caribbean. The company serves customers through company-operated locations and franchised restaurants, with a business model centered on quick-service dining, menu distribution, and local restaurant management. Its operations span multiple countries and territories, giving it a broad regional footprint in the fast-food market. Arcos Dorados also supports its restaurant network through supply chain coordination, real estate activities, training, and operational services that help maintain a consistent customer experience. As the largest independent McDonald’s franchisee in the world, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Class A plays a significant role in one of the most recognizable global restaurant systems while focusing on consumer demand for convenient, standardized food service across diverse Latin American markets.
CEO Mr. Marcelo Rabach · Uruguay · https://www.arcosdorados.com
