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ARCO Stock Forecast: Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 2 Oct 2026
$7.11
+2.89% on the day

The 9 Wall Street analysts covering Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $12 — +61.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 85 of 100 as at 2 Oct 2026 — inside the top quartile. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.

Market cap
$1.5B
Ticker Nerd rank
85 / 100
Median analyst target
$12
Analysts covering
9
Revenue$1.3B+14.3% y/y
Operating income$72.6M
Net income$45.1M
Free cash flow$56.3M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−1.8%
1M
−12.6%
YTD
−0.6%
1Y
+10.5%
From 52W high
−23.8%
From 52W low
+10.8%
$6.42
$9.34
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

ARCO stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 2 Oct 2026
85 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Growth
93
Revisions
91
Value
88
Volatility
78
Momentum
62
Quality
62
Issuance
43
Size
39
Accruals
26

Growth (93): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.

Accruals (26): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

ARCO stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ARCO, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$6.00$8.00$10.00$12.00$14.00Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26ARCOHigh $14Median $12Low $9

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says9 analysts
8 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Low $9Median $12High $14

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +61.7% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
17 July 2026JP MorganUpgradeOverweight$9.00 → $11
11 Nov 2025JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$8.80 → $8.70
11 Nov 2025JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
3 Nov 2025Banco Bradesco BBI S.ADowngradeNeutral—
2 July 2025JP MorganDowngradeNeutral—
13 Sept 2024JP MorganMaintainsOverweight—
1 Dec 2023JefferiesInitiatesBuy—
10 Aug 2023JP MorganMaintainsOverweight—
7 Aug 2023BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
18 May 2023B of A SecuritiesMaintainsBuy—
6 Feb 2023BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
27 Sept 2022BarclaysInitiatesOverweight—
17 Aug 2022Goldman SachsMaintainsBuy—
15 June 2022Bradesco CorretoraUpgradeOutperform—
24 Mar 2022B of A SecuritiesUpgradeBuy—
23 Feb 2022Credit SuisseUpgradeOutperform—
19 Jan 2022Goldman SachsUpgradeBuy—
23 Apr 2021Goldman SachsInitiatesNeutral—
28 Jan 2021BradescoDowngradeNeutral—
28 Jan 2021Bradesco CorretoraDowngradeNeutral—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. ARCO appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

ARCO vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 2 Oct 2026, Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. returned +10.5% against +16.2% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

ARCO vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
90100110120130140Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26ARCOS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

ARCO analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+2.2%
Analysts raising
3
Analysts cutting
0
Fundamentals

Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. (ARCO) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
5.8×

Cheaper than 65% of US stocks

Price / sales
0.3×

Cheaper than 88% of US stocks

Price / book
1.8×

Cheaper than 48% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
5.6×

Cheaper than 52% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
14.3%

Higher than 61% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
99.3%

Higher than 84% of US stocks

Gross margin
11.8%

Higher than 11% of US stocks

Operating margin
5.6%

Higher than 56% of US stocks

Net margin
5.2%

Higher than 60% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
36.4%

Higher than 90% of US stocks

Return on assets
6.9%

Higher than 85% of US stocks

Dividend yield
3.9%

Higher than 74% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. (ARCO) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. has a market value of $1.5B and an enterprise value of $3.4B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $5.0B. The latest quarter grew 14.3% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $257.1M, a 5.2% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.22.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $99.1M, after $263.1M of capital spending.

  • Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. spent $54.8M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 210.7M.

  • Trailing P/E: 5.8×; forward P/E: 8.3× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 3.91%, paying out 21% of earnings.

  • Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. employs 0 people.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 1 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

ARCO vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelRestaurants
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings, Inc.$1.5B
85
BJRIBJ's Restaurants, Inc.$1.3B
93
CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.$1.2B
76
BHBiglari Holdings, Inc.$1.2B
34
WENThe Wendy's Co.$1.2B
57
SGSweetgreen, Inc.$1.1B
9
SHAKShake Shack, Inc.$2.6B
30

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest ARCO news & analysis

Arcos Dorados Targets 600 Openings, Higher Cash Flow in Long-Term Growth Plan

MarketBeat · 2 Oct 2026positive

At its 2026 Investor Day, Arcos Dorados outlined a multiyear growth plan centered on restaurant development, digital capabilities, margin improvement and free-cash-flow generation, including a target of 600 new openings. The company, the largest McDonald's operator in Latin America and the Caribbean, framed the plan around long-term growth.

Why it matters — ARCO watchers would care because the company's stated growth plan signals its strategic priorities for expansion and cash-flow generation in the years ahead.

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) Analyst/Investor Day Transcript

Seeking Alpha · 1 Oct 2026neutral

Seeking Alpha published a transcript of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s Analyst/Investor Day. The transcript provides a record of what company executives discussed during the investor event.

Why it matters — The transcript gives ARCO watchers direct access to management's investor-day commentary, which can inform their understanding of the company's strategic outlook.

Arcos Dorados to Host 2026 Investor Day, Outlining Long-Term Growth Strategy and Financial Framework

Business Wire · 1 Oct 2026neutral

Arcos Dorados Holdings will host its 2026 Investor Day today in Montevideo, Uruguay, where Executive Chairman Woods Staton, CEO Luis Raganato and other senior management will outline the Company's long-term growth strategy and financial framework, including expectations for total revenue.

Why it matters — The Investor Day offers ARCO watchers a direct view of the company's long-term growth strategy and financial framework from its leadership team.

OuterSignal Raises $22 Million in Series A Funding Round: NYSE Content Update

PRNewsWire · 30 Sept 2026neutral

OuterSignal announced it has raised $22 million in a Series A funding round, according to a pre-market advisory issued by NYSE from the trading floor in New York. The announcement was made public through PRNewswire.

Why it matters — This NYSE content update relates to a separate company's funding announcement and carries no direct implications for Arcos Dorados Holdings.

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Seeking Alpha · 14 Aug 2026neutral

Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. released the transcript of its Q2 2026 earnings call, as published by Seeking Alpha. The transcript covers the company's second-quarter 2026 results and management discussion.

Why it matters — For ARCO watchers, the earnings call transcript offers direct insight into the company's second-quarter performance and management commentary.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about ARCO stock

What is the ARCO stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 9 Wall Street analysts covering Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $12, with estimates ranging from $9.1 to $14. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is ARCO stock a buy right now?

Of the 9 analysts covering Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc., 8 rate it a Buy, 1 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. 85 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 2 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank ARCO?

As at 2 Oct 2026, Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. ranks 85 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (93 of 100).

Will ARCO stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 9 analysts implies +61.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. 85 out of 100 as at 2 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the ARCO stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ARCO are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $9.1 to $14 over the next 12 months.

How has ARCO stock performed over the past year?

Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. returned +10.5% over the 12 months to 2 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. do?

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Class A is a restaurant franchise operator that manages McDonald’s-branded restaurants across Latin America and the Caribbean.

What is the latest news on ARCO?

The most recent item we track (MarketBeat, 2 Oct 2026): "Arcos Dorados Targets 600 Openings, Higher Cash Flow in Long-Term Growth Plan". At its 2026 Investor Day, Arcos Dorados outlined a multiyear growth plan centered on restaurant development, digital capabilities, margin improvement and free-cash-flow generation, including a target of 600 new openings. The company, the largest McDonald's operator in Latin America and the Caribbean, framed the plan around long-term growth.

Company

About Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc.

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Class A is a restaurant franchise operator that manages McDonald’s-branded restaurants across Latin America and the Caribbean. The company serves customers through company-operated locations and franchised restaurants, with a business model centered on quick-service dining, menu distribution, and local restaurant management. Its operations span multiple countries and territories, giving it a broad regional footprint in the fast-food market. Arcos Dorados also supports its restaurant network through supply chain coordination, real estate activities, training, and operational services that help maintain a consistent customer experience. As the largest independent McDonald’s franchisee in the world, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Class A plays a significant role in one of the most recognizable global restaurant systems while focusing on consumer demand for convenient, standardized food service across diverse Latin American markets.

CEO Mr. Marcelo Rabach · Uruguay · https://www.arcosdorados.com