BBAITechnology · Information Technology ServicesThe 2 Wall Street analysts covering BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $3.25 — +26.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 26 of 100 as at 4 Nov 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Accruals (76): Reported profit is backed by cash, and the company is not expanding recklessly.
Momentum (8): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on BBAI, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +26.7% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 0 moved their price target up and 4 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | $4.00 → $3.00 |
| 31 July 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | $5.00 → $4.00 |
| 31 July 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 3 Mar 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 3 Mar 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | $6.00 → $5.00 |
| 3 Mar 2026 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintains | Buy | $8.00 → $6.00 |
| 3 Mar 2026 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 7 Jan 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 11 Nov 2025 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 12 Aug 2025 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 1 July 2025 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 7 Mar 2025 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 7 Mar 2025 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 30 Dec 2024 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 6 Nov 2024 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Assumes | Overweight | $3.50 |
| 6 Nov 2024 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 15 Oct 2024 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 21 Aug 2024 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterates | Overweight | — |
| 2 Aug 2024 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 3 May 2024 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Reiterates | Buy | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
BBAI appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
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Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 4 Nov 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. returned −55.2% against +14.8% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 88% of US stocks
Cheaper than 15% of US stocks
Cheaper than 47% of US stocks
Cheaper than 88% of US stocks
Higher than 78% of US stocks
Higher than 38% of US stocks
Higher than 17% of US stocks
Higher than 5% of US stocks
Higher than 28% of US stocks
Higher than 30% of US stocks
Higher than 1% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. has a market value of $1.2B and an enterprise value of $954.6M.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $131.6M. The latest quarter grew 31.5% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: −$85.8M, a −65.2% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−0.21.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$73.8M, after $1.1M of capital spending.
Trailing P/E: −3.1×; forward P/E: −12.7× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. employs 579 people — $227K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
The Motley Fool compared BigBear.ai with Nebius, reporting that BigBear.ai's trailing-12-month revenue fell about 1.5% and it had a roughly $180 million net loss, while Nebius revenue rose 444% and it posted a $62 million profit.
Why it matters — The comparison highlights BigBear.ai's recent revenue decline and net loss relative to Nebius's reported growth and profit.
BigBear.ai reported 31% revenue growth in its most recent quarter, secured dozens of new deals, and upgraded its guidance.
Why it matters — These results and business updates are relevant to BBAI watchers assessing the company’s recent performance.
Zacks compares BigBear.ai and Booz Allen in the government AI market, noting BBAI's contract wins and accelerating revenue alongside BAH's stronger profitability, rising earnings estimates, and 75% ROE.
Why it matters — The comparison highlights BBAI's growth and contract activity while contrasting them with Booz Allen's profitability and earnings-estimate strength.
BigBear.ai reported Q3 revenue growth of 31.5% year over year to $43.58 million and backlog wins, while remaining unprofitable. Gross margin improved to 31.2%, but adjusted EBITDA and cash flow remained weak; GAAP EPS was affected by a $76.7 million goodwill impairment.
Why it matters — BBAI watchers may weigh the revenue and margin improvement against continued losses and execution concerns.
Gorilla Technology Group shares rose 5% to $9.66 in afternoon trading as its rebound extended. The excerpt says Palantir and BigBear.ai slipped as AI software peers.
Why it matters — The item reports BigBear.ai shares slipping while Gorilla rose, offering a brief comparison of performance among AI software peers.
The 2 Wall Street analysts covering BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $3.25, with estimates ranging from $3 to $3.5. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 2 analysts covering BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc., 0 rate it a Buy, 2 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. 26 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 4 Nov 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 4 Nov 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. ranks 26 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Accruals (76 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 2 analysts implies +26.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. 26 out of 100 as at 4 Nov 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for BBAI are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $3 to $3.5 over the next 12 months.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. returned -55.2% over the 12 months to 4 Nov 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is an artificial intelligence and data analytics company focused on decision intelligence for government and commercial users.
The most recent item we track (The Motley Fool, 4 Nov 2026): "BigBear.ai vs. Nebius: Which AI Stock Is the Better Buy for 2027?". The Motley Fool compared BigBear.ai with Nebius, reporting that BigBear.ai's trailing-12-month revenue fell about 1.5% and it had a roughly $180 million net loss, while Nebius revenue rose 444% and it posted a $62 million profit.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is an artificial intelligence and data analytics company focused on decision intelligence for government and commercial users. BigBear.ai provides software and services across supply chain and logistics, cybersecurity, autonomous systems, and digital identity. Its offerings include AI-powered analytics, predictive modeling, computer vision, biometrics, machine learning orchestration, and systems integration designed to support mission-critical operations and complex data environments. The company also serves defense, intelligence, homeland security, travel, trade, and industrial customers with tools for situational awareness, identity verification, and operational optimization. Headquartered in McLean, Virginia, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. positions itself as a specialized provider of mission-ready AI solutions that help organizations process data, automate workflows, and improve decision-making across regulated and high-security markets.
CEO Mr. Kevin McAleenan · 579 employees · United States · https://bigbear.ai
