BBAITechnology · Information Technology ServicesThe 2 Wall Street analysts covering BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $4 — +65.3% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 13 of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Issuance (63): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.
Volatility (9): The share price moves around a lot.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on BBAI, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +65.3% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 0 moved their price target up and 3 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 July 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | $5.00 → $4.00 |
| 31 July 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 3 Mar 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 3 Mar 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | $6.00 → $5.00 |
| 3 Mar 2026 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 3 Mar 2026 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintains | Buy | $8.00 → $6.00 |
| 7 Jan 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 11 Nov 2025 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 12 Aug 2025 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 1 July 2025 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 7 Mar 2025 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 7 Mar 2025 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 30 Dec 2024 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 6 Nov 2024 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Assumes | Overweight | $3.50 |
| 6 Nov 2024 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 15 Oct 2024 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 21 Aug 2024 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterates | Overweight | — |
| 2 Aug 2024 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 3 May 2024 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 12 Mar 2024 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterates | Overweight | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. BBAI appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 8 Oct 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. returned −66.8% against +16.2% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 88% of US stocks
Cheaper than 15% of US stocks
Cheaper than 52% of US stocks
Cheaper than 87% of US stocks
Higher than 59% of US stocks
Higher than 38% of US stocks
Higher than 15% of US stocks
Higher than 8% of US stocks
Higher than 33% of US stocks
Higher than 29% of US stocks
Higher than 1% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. has a market value of $1.2B and an enterprise value of $940.7M.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $131.6M. The latest quarter grew 13.2% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: −$85.8M, a −65.2% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−0.21.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$73.8M, after $1.1M of capital spending.
Trailing P/E: −3.1×; forward P/E: −12.6× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. employs 579 people — $227K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
The Motley Fool compares BigBear.ai and Nebius, describing BigBear.ai as a provider of decision-intelligence software for U.S. defense and intelligence and Nebius as an operator of cloud infrastructure for global AI workloads.
Why it matters — The comparison highlights BigBear.ai’s focus on defense and intelligence decision software relative to Nebius’s AI cloud infrastructure business.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) closed at $2.42 in the latest trading session, down 3.59% from the previous day.
Why it matters — BBAI watchers may note the session's decline and closing price.
MarketBeat describes BigBear.ai as among the most heavily shorted stocks on Wall Street. The excerpt also displays a share price of $2.50, down 2.91% as of October 7, 2026, and a 52-week range of $2.48 to $9.39.
Why it matters — BBAI watchers may note the high short-interest characterization and the reported trading figures when following the stock.
The Motley Fool compares BigBear.ai and IonQ, noting that BigBear.ai provides mission-ready AI solutions to the U.S. government but faces declining revenue growth. IonQ is scaling its quantum-computing-as-a-service model and delivered triple-digit revenue growth in 2025.
Why it matters — The comparison highlights BigBear.ai’s revenue-growth challenge alongside a peer’s faster reported growth.
The Motley Fool published a comparison of BigBear.ai and SoundHound AI as potential stock picks for 2026. The article notes that BigBear.ai focuses on decision intelligence with an emphasis on national security and defense contracts, while SoundHound AI is expanding in voice and agentic AI across automotive and hospitality.
Why it matters — BBAI watchers would find this relevant because it positions the company's decision intelligence and defense focus within a broader AI-sector comparison ahead of 2026.
The 2 Wall Street analysts covering BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $4, with estimates ranging from $4 to $4. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 2 analysts covering BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc., 0 rate it a Buy, 2 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. 13 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 8 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 8 Oct 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. ranks 13 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (63 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 2 analysts implies +65.3% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. 13 out of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for BBAI are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $4 to $4 over the next 12 months.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. returned -66.8% over the 12 months to 8 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is an artificial intelligence and data analytics company focused on decision intelligence for government and commercial users.
The most recent item we track (The Motley Fool, 9 Oct 2026): "BigBear.ai vs. Nebius: Which Tech Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?". The Motley Fool compares BigBear.ai and Nebius, describing BigBear.ai as a provider of decision-intelligence software for U.S. defense and intelligence and Nebius as an operator of cloud infrastructure for global AI workloads.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is an artificial intelligence and data analytics company focused on decision intelligence for government and commercial users. BigBear.ai provides software and services across supply chain and logistics, cybersecurity, autonomous systems, and digital identity. Its offerings include AI-powered analytics, predictive modeling, computer vision, biometrics, machine learning orchestration, and systems integration designed to support mission-critical operations and complex data environments. The company also serves defense, intelligence, homeland security, travel, trade, and industrial customers with tools for situational awareness, identity verification, and operational optimization. Headquartered in McLean, Virginia, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. positions itself as a specialized provider of mission-ready AI solutions that help organizations process data, automate workflows, and improve decision-making across regulated and high-security markets.
CEO Mr. Kevin McAleenan · 579 employees · United States · https://bigbear.ai
