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CFCFBasic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

CF Stock Forecast: CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 24 Sept 2026
$118
−1.82% on the day

The 21 Wall Street analysts covering CF Industries Holdings, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $123 — +3.9% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 87 of 100 as at 23 Sept 2026 — inside the top quartile. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.

Market cap
$18.3B
Ticker Nerd rank
87 / 100
Median analyst target
$123
Analysts covering
21
Revenue$2.2B+17.6% y/y
Operating income$1.1B
Net income$869.0M
Free cash flow$603.0M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−11.5%
1M
−8.4%
YTD
+55.4%
1Y
+31.9%
From 52W high
−15.0%
From 52W low
+57.9%
$75
$139
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

CF stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores CF Industries Holdings, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 23 Sept 2026
87 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Quality
98
Growth
96
Value
96
Volatility
89
Momentum
80
Issuance
72
Accruals
46
Revisions
37
Size
10

Quality (98): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.

Revisions (37): Analysts have, on balance, been cutting their forecasts.

Size (10): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

The Ticker Nerd Read

Our model ranks CF 86.55 of 100; most analysts say hold.

As of 21 September 2026, our factor model ranks CF Industries 86.55 of 100 against roughly 4,600 US stocks. Quality (97.6), Growth (95.8), and Value (95.8) carry the rank. Estimate Revisions (36.6) and the market-cap factor (10.3) drag it, because CF is larger than most of the stocks we track.

As of 22 September 2026, return on equity is 29.9%, and the June 2026 quarter's operating margin is 49.6%. The Growth score reads the revenue line, which rose 17.6% year over year in the June 2026 quarter. Value compares price with profits: the shares trade at 9.1 times trailing earnings and 5.9 times EBITDA as of 22 September 2026.

Wall Street reads the company differently. As of 22 September 2026, 13 of 21 analysts rate CF a Hold, four say Buy, and four say Sell. The median target of $123 sits at the 21 September close of $123.27, and the shares rose 47.9% over the twelve months to that date.

The weak spot is Estimate Revisions; consensus current-year EPS fell 17.4% in the 90 days to 22 September 2026, from $18.23 to $15.06. The past month brought six cuts and no raises to that forecast. The next quarterly report, and the Belarus potash-deal news that pulled CF shares down about 3% on 21 September 2026, would refresh the revision and growth readings.

As of 22 Sept 2026
Wall Street

CF stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on CF, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$100$150$200Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26CFHigh $196Median $123Low $98

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says21 analysts
4 Buy13 Hold4 Sell
Low $98Median $123High $196

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +3.9% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 2 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
11 Sept 2026KeybancInitiatesUnderweight$115
11 Sept 2026KeybancInitiatesUnderweight—
10 Aug 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Outperform—
10 Aug 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Outperform$125 → $130
7 Aug 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—
7 Aug 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral$115 → $123
17 July 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsSector Perform$125 → $115
17 July 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsSector Perform—
7 July 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-Weight—
30 June 2026ScotiabankUpgradeSector Outperform—
3 June 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
11 May 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Perform—
30 Apr 2026CIBCMaintainsNeutral—
27 Apr 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
20 Apr 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Perform—
17 Apr 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
14 Apr 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsNeutral—
8 Apr 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-Weight—
31 Mar 2026MizuhoMaintainsUnderperform—
26 Mar 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. CF appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

CF vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 24 Sept 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. returned +31.9% against +17.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

CF vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
80100120140160Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26CFS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

CF analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−17.4%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
6
Fundamentals

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
8.9×

Cheaper than 60% of US stocks

Price / sales
2.4×

Cheaper than 48% of US stocks

Price / book
3.2×

Cheaper than 30% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
5.8×

Cheaper than 51% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
17.6%

Higher than 66% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
88.3%

Higher than 82% of US stocks

Gross margin
51.5%

Higher than 64% of US stocks

Operating margin
49.3%

Higher than 96% of US stocks

Net margin
27.1%

Higher than 87% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
29.9%

Higher than 87% of US stocks

Return on assets
12.9%

Higher than 96% of US stocks

Dividend yield
2.0%

Higher than 43% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has a market value of $18.3B and an enterprise value of $22.6B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $7.7B. The latest quarter grew 17.6% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $2.5B, a 32.3% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $13.49.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.9B.

  • CF Industries Holdings, Inc. spent $969.0M on share buybacks and $314.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 151.6M.

  • Trailing P/E: 8.9×; forward P/E: 11.3× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 1.99%, paying out 15% of earnings.

  • CF Industries Holdings, Inc. employs 2,900 people — $2.7M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 24 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

CF vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelAgricultural Inputs
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc.$18.3B
87
NTRNutrien Ltd.$35.9B
89
MOSThe Mosaic Co.$7.7B
17
ICLICL Group Ltd.$6.8B
60
CTVACorteva, Inc.$53.8B
58
SMGScotts Miracle-Gro Co.$3.1B
76
FMCFMC Corp.$1.2B
24

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own CF Industries Holdings, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest CF news & analysis

Potash producers slide after Trump touts Belarus purchase deal

Proactive Investors · 21 Sept 2026negative

Fertilizer producer shares declined Monday after President Trump said the United States was nearing a deal to purchase potash from Belarus. CF Industries shares slid roughly 3%, while Nutrien, Mosaic, and Intrepid Potash also fell.

Why it matters — A US-Belarus potash purchase deal could affect fertilizer market dynamics and pricing, and CF Industries shares declined in response to the news.

CF Jumps 24% in the Past 3 Months: What's Driving the Stock?

Zacks Investment Research · 15 Sept 2026positive

CF Industries' stock has risen 24.3% year to date. According to the article, the rally reflects strong nitrogen demand, firm prices, tightening supply, and robust shareholder returns.

Why it matters — The rally indicates that market conditions for nitrogen products and CF's capital-return program are currently favorable for the company.

CF Industries: Crushing European Rivals With Structural Moat

Seeking Alpha · 12 Sept 2026positive

A Seeking Alpha piece highlights CF Industries' structural cost leadership from Henry Hub natural gas, first-quartile cost positioning, and robust North American logistics that insulate margins amid global energy volatility. It also notes the company's resilient cash flows from carbon capture credits under Section 45Q and disciplined share buybacks supporting per-share value compounding.

Why it matters — CF watchers would care because the article underscores the company's durable competitive moat and cash-flow resilience, which may help sustain market share gains and value creation through commodity cycles.

The Big 3: CF, LULU, UPS

Schwab Network · 10 Sept 2026neutral

Schwab Network's Jason Brown cited ongoing macroeconomic pressures as likely to impact the stock market for the foreseeable future, while pointing to CF as among stocks he expects to weather volatility and present trading opportunities.

Why it matters — The report highlights CF as a stock that may be better positioned to withstand market volatility amid mounting macroeconomic pressures.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about CF stock

What is the CF stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 21 Wall Street analysts covering CF Industries Holdings, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $123, with estimates ranging from $98 to $196. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is CF stock a buy right now?

Of the 21 analysts covering CF Industries Holdings, Inc., 4 rate it a Buy, 13 a Hold and 4 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks CF Industries Holdings, Inc. 87 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 23 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank CF?

As at 23 Sept 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. ranks 87 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (98 of 100).

Will CF stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 21 analysts implies +3.9% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks CF Industries Holdings, Inc. 87 out of 100 as at 23 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the CF stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering CF Industries Holdings, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for CF are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $98 to $196 over the next 12 months.

How has CF stock performed over the past year?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. returned +31.9% over the 12 months to 24 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does CF Industries Holdings, Inc. do?

CF Industries makes nitrogen fertilizer in North America and sells it to farmers, cooperatives, distributors, and industrial customers. Its products — ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, ammonium nitrate, nitric acid, and diesel exhaust fluid — feed crops and support emissions control.

What is the latest news on CF?

The most recent item we track (Proactive Investors, 21 Sept 2026): "Potash producers slide after Trump touts Belarus purchase deal". Fertilizer producer shares declined Monday after President Trump said the United States was nearing a deal to purchase potash from Belarus. CF Industries shares slid roughly 3%, while Nutrien, Mosaic, and Intrepid Potash also fell.

What share of its earnings does CF return as dividends?

CF's forward dividend yield is 1.9% as of 22 September 2026, and the payout ratio is 14.8% of earnings. In the June 2026 quarter it paid $77 million in dividends and spent $225 million buying back its own shares.

Company

About CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

CF Industries makes nitrogen fertilizer in North America and sells it to farmers, cooperatives, distributors, and industrial customers. Its products — ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, ammonium nitrate, nitric acid, and diesel exhaust fluid — feed crops and support emissions control. The company is based in Northbrook, Illinois, employs about 2,900 people, and posted $7.7 billion in revenue over the twelve months to June 2026.

CEO Mr. Christopher D. Bohn · 2,900 employees · United States · https://www.cfindustries.com