CFBasic Materials · Agricultural InputsThe 21 Wall Street analysts covering CF Industries Holdings, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $123 — +4.5% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 86 of 100 as at 17 Aug 2026 — inside the top quartile. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores CF Industries Holdings, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Quality (98): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.
Revisions (38): Analysts have, on balance, been cutting their forecasts.
Size (11): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
As of 17 August 2026 our factor model ranks CF Industries 86 of 100 across the roughly 4,600 US stocks it tracks. Strong Value (96), Quality (98) and Growth (96) readings carry the score, with a relatively steady share price (Low Volatility 88) close behind. Estimate Revisions ranks 37.5 of 100, the weakest family input, and Investment/Accruals runs mid-pack at 45.
That weak revisions factor is where the Street and the model part ways. Analysts have cut the current-year EPS consensus by about 15% over the 90 days to 18 August 2026, per the estimate data we hold; the model still reads the shares as priced low relative to earnings. The Street's average price target of $125.25 as of 18 August sits above the last close of $117.75, with 12 of 21 ratings at hold, 6 at buy and 3 at sell.
Estimate Revisions carries the heaviest factor weight at 16.67%, so a turn in forecast momentum would move the overall read the most. In the quarter ended June 2026, earnings missed analyst estimates despite a 17.6% revenue rise, with the company citing low volumes and an outage as the offset; management expects tight nitrogen fundamentals through 2027. If the forecast cuts that marked the past quarter persist, the factor that currently drags the score will keep pulling at it.
As of 18 Aug 2026The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on CF, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +4.5% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 2 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2026 | Scotiabank | Maintains | Sector Outperform | $125 → $130 |
| 7 Aug 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | $115 → $123 |
| 17 July 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | $125 → $115 |
| 17 July 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | — |
| 7 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 30 June 2026 | Scotiabank | Upgrade | Sector Outperform | — |
| 3 June 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 11 May 2026 | Scotiabank | Maintains | Sector Perform | — |
| 30 Apr 2026 | CIBC | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Scotiabank | Maintains | Sector Perform | — |
| 17 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 14 Apr 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 8 Apr 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 31 Mar 2026 | Mizuho | Maintains | Underperform | — |
| 26 Mar 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 18 Mar 2026 | B of A Securities | Maintains | Underperform | — |
| 18 Mar 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 18 Mar 2026 | Mizuho | Downgrade | Underperform | — |
| 17 Mar 2026 | CIBC | Maintains | Neutral | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. CF appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 61% of US stocks
Cheaper than 50% of US stocks
Cheaper than 34% of US stocks
Cheaper than 52% of US stocks
Higher than 67% of US stocks
Higher than 83% of US stocks
Higher than 64% of US stocks
Higher than 96% of US stocks
Higher than 87% of US stocks
Higher than 88% of US stocks
Higher than 96% of US stocks
Higher than 46% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own CF Industries Holdings, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
CF Industries reported first-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion and second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, supported by tight global nitrogen supply-demand conditions and strong operating performance.
Why it matters — A CF watcher would monitor these earnings results as an indicator of how global nitrogen market conditions and operating performance are driving the company's financials.
CF Industries' Q2 earnings call highlighted higher mid-cycle earnings power, driven by rising construction costs that boost nitrogen economics, with tight fundamentals expected through 2027.
Why it matters — A CF watcher would care because the outlook for sustained tight nitrogen fundamentals and higher earnings power could signal a longer period of favorable conditions for the company.
Seeking Alpha published the transcript of CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s Q2 2026 earnings call. The item provides the full transcript of the company's earnings call discussion.
Why it matters — A CF watcher would care because the transcript offers direct insight into management's discussion of the company's second-quarter 2026 results and outlook.
CF Industries' second-quarter earnings missed estimates, as lower volumes and the Yazoo City outage offset stronger nitrogen pricing. Sales nonetheless rose 17.6% in the quarter.
Why it matters — A CF watcher would care because the earnings miss signals that operational and volume headwinds outweighed the benefit of strong nitrogen pricing in the quarter.
Zacks Investment Research reported on CF Industries' Q2 earnings for the quarter ended June 2026, noting that revenue and EPS figures are now being compared against Wall Street estimates and year-ago numbers to gauge how the business performed.
Why it matters — The analysis gives CF watchers insight into whether the company's key financial metrics met Wall Street expectations for the quarter.
The 21 Wall Street analysts covering CF Industries Holdings, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $123, with estimates ranging from $98 to $196. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 21 analysts covering CF Industries Holdings, Inc., 6 rate it a Buy, 12 a Hold and 3 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks CF Industries Holdings, Inc. 86 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 17 Aug 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 17 Aug 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. ranks 86 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (98 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 21 analysts implies +4.5% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks CF Industries Holdings, Inc. 86 out of 100 as at 17 Aug 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering CF Industries Holdings, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for CF are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $98 to $196 over the next 12 months.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. returned +39.9% over the 12 months to 17 Aug 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
CF Industries Holdings makes ammonia and nitrogen-based products for agriculture and industry. Its lines include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate and ammonium nitrate, plus diesel exhaust fluid and other emissions-abatement inputs.
The most recent item we track (MarketBeat, 8 Aug 2026): "CF Industries Q2 Earnings Call Highlights". CF Industries reported first-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion and second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, supported by tight global nitrogen supply-demand conditions and strong operating performance.
CF Industries Holdings makes ammonia and nitrogen-based products for agriculture and industry. Its lines include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate and ammonium nitrate, plus diesel exhaust fluid and other emissions-abatement inputs. The company runs manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom and sells to cooperatives, distributors and farmers across North America and Europe. It employs about 2,900 people, and its market value was roughly $17.9 billion as of 18 August 2026.
CEO Mr. Christopher D. Bohn · 2,900 employees · United States · https://www.cfindustries.com