CFBasic Materials · Agricultural InputsThe 22 Wall Street analysts covering CF Industries Holdings, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $124 — +3.8% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 88 of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026 — inside the top quartile. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores CF Industries Holdings, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Quality (98): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.
Revisions (37): Analysts have, on balance, been cutting their forecasts.
Size (10): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
As of October 14, 2026, our factor model ranks CF Industries 87.7 of 100 across the US stocks it tracks. Quality (97.6), Growth (96.0) and Value (95.6) carry the reading, each among the strongest in the model. The drags are Estimate Revisions (36.7) and Investment/Accruals (45.9), plus a normal size penalty for a stock this large.
That weak Estimate Revisions reading is where the model and the Street part ways. Over the 90 days to October 13, 2026, consensus earnings per share for the current year fell from $17.61 to $15.31. Only 6 of 22 analysts rate the stock a buy, 13 call it a hold, and the average target of $127.69 sits above the October 14 close of $119.46.
The shares are up 40.6% over the twelve months to October 14, 2026, a return that feeds the strong Momentum and Low Volatility scores. Fertilizer prices were climbing again in September, and the company reports third-quarter results on November 4. What would change the picture most is the estimate-revisions factor, which has been weighing the rank down as analysts cut their current-year numbers.
As of 15 Oct 2026The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on CF, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +3.8% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 3 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sept 2026 | Rothschild & Co | Upgrade | Neutral | $98 → $110 |
| 25 Sept 2026 | Bernstein | Initiates | Outperform | $162 |
| 11 Sept 2026 | Keybanc | Initiates | Underweight | $115 |
| 11 Sept 2026 | Keybanc | Initiates | Underweight | — |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Scotiabank | Maintains | Sector Outperform | — |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Scotiabank | Maintains | Sector Outperform | $125 → $130 |
| 7 Aug 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 7 Aug 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | $115 → $123 |
| 17 July 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | $125 → $115 |
| 17 July 2026 | RBC Capital | Maintains | Sector Perform | — |
| 7 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 30 June 2026 | Scotiabank | Upgrade | Sector Outperform | — |
| 3 June 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 11 May 2026 | Scotiabank | Maintains | Sector Perform | — |
| 30 Apr 2026 | CIBC | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Scotiabank | Maintains | Sector Perform | — |
| 17 Apr 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 14 Apr 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 8 Apr 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. CF appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 14 Oct 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. returned +40.6% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
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Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 60% of US stocks
Cheaper than 48% of US stocks
Cheaper than 30% of US stocks
Cheaper than 52% of US stocks
Higher than 66% of US stocks
Higher than 82% of US stocks
Higher than 64% of US stocks
Higher than 96% of US stocks
Higher than 87% of US stocks
Higher than 87% of US stocks
Higher than 96% of US stocks
Higher than 79% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has a market value of $17.7B and an enterprise value of $21.6B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $7.7B. The latest quarter grew 17.6% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $2.5B, a 32.3% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $13.49.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.9B.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. spent $969.0M on share buybacks and $314.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 8.7×; forward P/E: 10.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 2.05%, paying out 15% of earnings.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. employs 2,900 people — $2.7M of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own CF Industries Holdings, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Zacks Investment Research's headline calls CF Industries a strong growth stock. The excerpt introduces Zacks Style Scores as a way to identify stocks, but provides no CF-specific score or supporting details.
Why it matters — CF watchers are presented with a positive growth-stock characterization, though the excerpt offers no further evidence or company-specific analysis.
Zacks Investment Research highlights CF Industries as a long-term value stock and notes that its Zacks Style Scores feature is designed to help investors find stocks across value, growth, and momentum styles.
Why it matters — CF watchers may note the article's favorable value-stock framing and its reference to Zacks' screening tool.
CF Industries' strong cash flow is supporting strategic investments, debt reduction and shareholder returns. The item also points to additional growth opportunities ahead.
Why it matters — CF watchers may follow how the company uses its cash flow to fund investments, reduce debt and return capital to shareholders.
CF Industries declared a quarterly dividend of $0.60 per share, payable November 30, 2026, to shareholders of record on November 16, 2026. The company also confirmed it will release third-quarter and nine-month 2026 results after market close on November 4 and host a conference call to discuss them.
Why it matters — CF watchers can note the dividend payment and record dates, as well as the scheduled results release and conference call.
Fertilizer prices climbed again in September, with six of the eight major fertilizer inputs moving higher, reversing the August trend when many raw materials retreated from their highs. The article notes that three fertilizer stocks, including CF Industries Holdings, are still trading at a discount.
Why it matters — Rising fertilizer input prices and discounted stock valuations could directly affect CF Industries' product pricing and how investors view its shares.
The 22 Wall Street analysts covering CF Industries Holdings, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $124, with estimates ranging from $105 to $196. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 22 analysts covering CF Industries Holdings, Inc., 6 rate it a Buy, 13 a Hold and 3 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks CF Industries Holdings, Inc. 88 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 14 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 14 Oct 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. ranks 88 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (98 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 22 analysts implies +3.8% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks CF Industries Holdings, Inc. 88 out of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering CF Industries Holdings, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for CF are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $105 to $196 over the next 12 months.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. returned +40.6% over the 12 months to 14 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
CF Industries Holdings manufactures and distributes nitrogen-based products for farmers and industrial customers, including ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate and diesel exhaust fluid. Headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, it employs about 2,900 people and spans production, storage, transport and distribution across the nitrogen supply chain.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 14 Oct 2026): "Here's Why CF Industries (CF) is a Strong Growth Stock". Zacks Investment Research's headline calls CF Industries a strong growth stock. The excerpt introduces Zacks Style Scores as a way to identify stocks, but provides no CF-specific score or supporting details.
At 8.7 times trailing earnings, the shares cost little relative to what the company earns, which is the basis of the strong Value score. Since ammonia and fertilizer prices swing with the cycle, that discount can reflect the market's assumption that today's earnings will not hold.
The forward yield of about 2.05% sits higher than 79% of US dividend payers, but the company pays out only about 14.8% of earnings. That gap means it keeps most of its profit, which it has been using on buybacks and capital spending rather than returning as dividends.
CF Industries Holdings manufactures and distributes nitrogen-based products for farmers and industrial customers, including ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate and diesel exhaust fluid. Headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, it employs about 2,900 people and spans production, storage, transport and distribution across the nitrogen supply chain. Twelve-month sales through June 2026 were $7.74 billion.
CEO Mr. Christopher D. Bohn · 2,900 employees · United States · https://www.cfindustries.com
