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CFCFBasic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

CF Stock Forecast: CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 3 Sept 2026
$138
−1.05% on the day

The 21 Wall Street analysts covering CF Industries Holdings, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $123 — -10.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 86 of 100 as at 2 Sept 2026 — inside the top quartile. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$20.5B
Ticker Nerd rank
86 / 100
Median analyst target
$123
Analysts covering
21
Revenue$2.2B+17.6% y/y
Operating income$1.1B
Net income$869.0M
Free cash flow$603.0M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+9.6%
1M
+17.1%
YTD
+80.8%
1Y
+65.9%
From 52W high
−1.0%
From 52W low
+83.8%
$75
$139
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

CF stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores CF Industries Holdings, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 2 Sept 2026
86 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Quality
98
Growth
96
Value
95
Volatility
91
Momentum
78
Issuance
72
Accruals
45
Revisions
35
Size
10

Quality (98): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.

Revisions (35): Analysts have, on balance, been cutting their forecasts.

Size (10): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

The Ticker Nerd Read

The model ranks CF near the top; Street targets sit below the price.

As of 1 September 2026, our factor model ranks CF 86.9 of 100 across the roughly 4,600 US stocks we track. Quality (97.6), Value (95.7) and Growth (95.7) carry the rank, with Low Volatility (91.5) and Momentum (81.4) behind them. Estimate Revisions (35.2) and size (9.8) drag it — a $20.5 billion market cap is larger than most names the model follows — and Investment/Accruals sits mid-pack at 45.5.

Wall Street's targets sit below the price. As of 1 September 2026 the average analyst target is $125.77 and the median is $123, both under the $135.60 last close, within a range from $98 to $195.72. Of 21 analysts, 13 rate the shares Hold, 5 Buy or Strong Buy, and 3 Sell or Strong Sell.

The live variable is the estimate trend: consensus current-year EPS has been cut 17.6% in the 90 days to 1 September 2026, from $18.27 to $15.06, and next-year consensus has fallen 5.0% to $10.66 from $11.21. The shares are up 59.8% over the twelve months to 1 September 2026, against 19.4% for the S&P 500. Management told analysts on its August Q2 call that nitrogen supply stays tight through 2027, and the $3.7 billion Blue Point One low-carbon ammonia plant with JERA and Mitsui has production expected in 2029.

As of 2 Sept 2026
Wall Street

CF stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on CF, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$100$150$200Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26CFHigh $196Median $123Low $98

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says21 analysts
4 Buy14 Hold3 Sell
Low $98Median $123High $196

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −10.7% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 2 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
10 Aug 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Outperform$125 → $130
7 Aug 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral$115 → $123
17 July 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsSector Perform$125 → $115
17 July 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsSector Perform—
7 July 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-Weight—
30 June 2026ScotiabankUpgradeSector Outperform—
3 June 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
11 May 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Perform—
30 Apr 2026CIBCMaintainsNeutral—
27 Apr 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
20 Apr 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Perform—
17 Apr 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
14 Apr 2026Goldman SachsMaintainsNeutral—
8 Apr 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-Weight—
31 Mar 2026MizuhoMaintainsUnderperform—
26 Mar 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—
18 Mar 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsUnderperform—
18 Mar 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsOutperform—
18 Mar 2026MizuhoDowngradeUnderperform—
17 Mar 2026CIBCMaintainsNeutral—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. CF appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

CF vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 3 Sept 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. returned +65.9% against +21.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

CF vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
80100120140160180Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26CFS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

CF analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−17.6%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
4
Fundamentals

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
10.1×

Cheaper than 59% of US stocks

Price / sales
2.7×

Cheaper than 45% of US stocks

Price / book
3.6×

Cheaper than 29% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
6.2×

Cheaper than 51% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
17.6%

Higher than 67% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
88.3%

Higher than 82% of US stocks

Gross margin
51.5%

Higher than 64% of US stocks

Operating margin
49.3%

Higher than 96% of US stocks

Net margin
27.1%

Higher than 87% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
29.9%

Higher than 88% of US stocks

Return on assets
12.9%

Higher than 96% of US stocks

Dividend yield
1.8%

Higher than 40% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has a market value of $20.5B and an enterprise value of $24.0B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $7.7B. The latest quarter grew 17.6% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $2.5B, a 32.3% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $13.49.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $1.9B.

  • CF Industries Holdings, Inc. spent $969.0M on share buybacks and $314.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 151.6M.

  • Trailing P/E: 10.1×; forward P/E: 13.1× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 1.77%, paying out 15% of earnings.

  • CF Industries Holdings, Inc. employs 2,900 people — $2.7M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 4 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

CF vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelAgricultural Inputs
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc.$20.5B
86
NTRNutrien Ltd.$38.3B
86
MOSThe Mosaic Co.$8.2B
17
CTVACorteva, Inc.$60.2B
60
ICLICL Group Ltd.$7.5B
61
SMGScotts Miracle-Gro Co.$3.5B
78
FMCFMC Corp.$1.7B
24

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own CF Industries Holdings, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest CF news & analysis

CF Industries: Still Misunderstood, Still Undervalued

Seeking Alpha · 2 Sept 2026positive

CF Industries Holdings is assessed as undervalued and rated a Buy despite recent earnings misses and commodity volatility. The company advanced its $4 billion Blue Point blue ammonia project targeting a 2029 start-up, which is expected to generate significant long-term EBITDA and free cash flow uplift.

Why it matters — A CF watcher would care because the article highlights the Blue Point project's long-term growth potential, alongside the company's North American gas advantage and strong balance sheet supporting dividends, buybacks, and strategic flexibility.

CF Shares Up 15% in 3 Months: Here's What's Driving the Upside

Zacks Investment Research · 1 Sept 2026positive

CF Industries' shares have risen 14.6% over three months, according to Zacks Investment Research. The gain is attributed to strong nitrogen demand, higher nitrogen prices, tight supply, and robust shareholder returns.

Why it matters — A CF watcher would care because the share-price rally reflects favorable market conditions for nitrogen that could support the company's financial performance and returns.

CF Industries & Partners Break Ground on Low-Carbon Ammonia Plant

Zacks Investment Research · 27 Aug 2026positive

CF Industries and its partners have broken ground on the Blue Point One low-carbon ammonia plant, a $3.7 billion project targeting 1.4 million metric tons of annual capacity with production expected in 2029.

Why it matters — CF watchers would care because this marks a major expansion into low-carbon ammonia production, a significant new growth project for the company.

CF Industries, JERA Co., and Mitsui & Co., Ltd., Break Ground on Blue Point One, the World's Largest Low-Carbon Ammonia Plant in Louisiana

Business Wire · 26 Aug 2026positive

CF Industries, JERA, and Mitsui broke ground in Modeste, Louisiana, on Blue Point One, a joint-venture low-carbon ammonia plant expected to be the world's largest, serving both agricultural customers and emerging energy applications.

Why it matters — The groundbreaking marks progress on a major low-carbon ammonia project for CF Industries, positioning it in both traditional agriculture and emerging energy markets.

CF Industries Q2 Earnings Call Highlights

MarketBeat · 8 Aug 2026positive

CF Industries reported first-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion and second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, supported by tight global nitrogen supply-demand conditions and strong operating performance.

Why it matters — A CF watcher would monitor these earnings results as an indicator of how global nitrogen market conditions and operating performance are driving the company's financials.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about CF stock

What is the CF stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 21 Wall Street analysts covering CF Industries Holdings, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $123, with estimates ranging from $98 to $196. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is CF stock a buy right now?

Of the 21 analysts covering CF Industries Holdings, Inc., 4 rate it a Buy, 14 a Hold and 3 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks CF Industries Holdings, Inc. 86 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 2 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank CF?

As at 2 Sept 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. ranks 86 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (98 of 100).

Will CF stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 21 analysts implies -10.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks CF Industries Holdings, Inc. 86 out of 100 as at 2 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the CF stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering CF Industries Holdings, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for CF are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $98 to $196 over the next 12 months.

How has CF stock performed over the past year?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. returned +65.9% over the 12 months to 3 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does CF Industries Holdings, Inc. do?

CF Industries Holdings makes and distributes nitrogen-based products — ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, ammonium nitrate and diesel exhaust fluid — for farmers, cooperatives, distributors and industrial customers across North America. Headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, it employs about 2,900 people and reported $7.7 billion of revenue over the four quarters to 30 June 2026.

What is the latest news on CF?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 2 Sept 2026): "CF Industries: Still Misunderstood, Still Undervalued". CF Industries Holdings is assessed as undervalued and rated a Buy despite recent earnings misses and commodity volatility. The company advanced its $4 billion Blue Point blue ammonia project targeting a 2029 start-up, which is expected to generate significant long-term EBITDA and free cash flow uplift.

Why is CF's Estimate Revisions score weak while its earnings are growing?

The factor reads the direction of analyst forecast moves, and those moves have been down: consensus current-year EPS fell from $18.27 to $15.06 over the 90 days to 1 September 2026, a 17.6% cut. Reported growth is separate — the June 2026 quarter's earnings rose 88.3% year over year. The estimate cuts, not the reported results, drive the factor's 35.2 reading.

Why is CF's forward P/E higher than its trailing P/E?

The trailing P/E is 10.06 and the forward P/E is 13.08, both as of 1 September 2026. The forward multiple divides by expected earnings, and the Street's next-year consensus of $10.66 a share is below the current-year consensus of $15.06, so the forward ratio is the higher one.

Company

About CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

CF Industries Holdings makes and distributes nitrogen-based products — ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, ammonium nitrate and diesel exhaust fluid — for farmers, cooperatives, distributors and industrial customers across North America. Headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, it employs about 2,900 people and reported $7.7 billion of revenue over the four quarters to 30 June 2026.

CEO Mr. Christopher D. Bohn · 2,900 employees · United States · https://www.cfindustries.com