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GFL Stock Forecast: GFL Environmental, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 12 Oct 2026
$42
−0.94% on the day

The 21 Wall Street analysts covering GFL Environmental, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $52 — +22.5% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 54 of 100 as at 9 Oct 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$15.4B
Ticker Nerd rank
54 / 100
Median analyst target
$52
Analysts covering
21
Revenue$1.9B+16.3% y/y
Operating income$108.3M
Net income−$162.6M
Free cash flow$129.7M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+0.2%
1M
−1.1%
YTD
−1.2%
1Y
−7.7%
From 52W high
−8.8%
From 52W low
+26.4%
$34
$46
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

GFL stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores GFL Environmental, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 9 Oct 2026
54 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Revisions
74
Accruals
70
Volatility
69
Quality
66
Growth
57
Value
55
Issuance
40
Momentum
37
Size
10

Revisions (74): Analysts have, on balance, been raising their forecasts.

Momentum (37): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.

Size (10): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

GFL stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on GFL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$30$35$40$45$50$55$60$65Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26GFLHigh $63Median $52Low $40

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says21 analysts
16 Buy3 Hold2 Sell
Low $40Median $52High $63

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +22.5% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 3 moved their price target up and 1 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
15 Sept 2026Wolfe ResearchAssumesOutperform$77
11 Sept 2026TD CowenReiteratesBuy$65
2 Sept 2026BarclaysReinstatesOverweight$58
2 Sept 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Outperform$56 → $57
2 Sept 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Outperform—
31 July 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Outperform$52 → $56
31 July 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Outperform—
16 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsUnderweight—
16 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsUnderweight$40 → $41
6 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsUnderweight—
6 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsUnderweight$42 → $40
4 May 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Outperform—
15 Apr 2026CitigroupMaintainsBuy—
14 Apr 2026JP MorganDowngradeUnderweight—
10 Apr 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
12 Feb 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
12 Feb 2026RBC CapitalMaintainsOutperform—
12 Feb 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Outperform—
21 Jan 2026ScotiabankMaintainsSector Outperform—
16 Jan 2026CitigroupMaintainsBuy—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. GFL appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

GFL vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 12 Oct 2026, GFL Environmental, Inc. returned −7.7% against +20.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

GFL vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
708090100110120Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26GFLS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

GFL analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−5.1%
Analysts raising
5
Analysts cutting
0
Fundamentals

GFL Environmental, Inc. (GFL) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
108.3×

Cheaper than 7% of US stocks

Price / sales
2.2×

Cheaper than 49% of US stocks

Price / book
3.0×

Cheaper than 31% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
15.2×

Cheaper than 22% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
16.3%

Higher than 64% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
16.3%

Higher than 54% of US stocks

Gross margin
19.8%

Higher than 21% of US stocks

Operating margin
6.9%

Higher than 59% of US stocks

Net margin
−2.9%

Higher than 26% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
−2.3%

Higher than 42% of US stocks

Return on assets
1.3%

Higher than 53% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.2%

Higher than 63% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

GFL Environmental, Inc. (GFL) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • GFL Environmental, Inc. has a market value of $15.4B and an enterprise value of $17.8B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $7.0B. The latest quarter grew 16.3% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: −$249.5M, a −3.6% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−0.76.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $209.9M.

  • GFL Environmental, Inc. spent $626.2M on share buybacks and $31.1M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 360.9M.

  • Trailing P/E: 108.3×; forward P/E: 47.8× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.16%, paying out 17% of earnings.

  • GFL Environmental, Inc. employs 15,500 people — $450K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 14 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

GFL vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelWaste Management
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
GFLGFL Environmental, Inc.$15.4B
54
CLHClean Harbors, Inc.$17.1B
94
WCNWaste Connections, Inc.$39.2B
—
CWSTCasella Waste Systems, Inc.$5.2B
50
RSGRepublic Services, Inc.$69.5B
68
WMWaste Management, Inc.$86.9B
83
CRSCarpenter Technology Corp.*$18.9B
69

* Nearest Industrials names by size — few waste management companies of this scale trade in the US universe.

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own GFL Environmental, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest GFL news & analysis

GFL Environmental Awarded NWRA 2026 Recycling Facility of the Year

PRNewsWire · 8 Oct 2026positive

GFL Environmental announced that its Montréal-East Material Recovery Facility in Montréal, Quebec, received the NWRA 2026 Recycling Facility of the Year award. The award recognizes North American material recovery facilities based on factors including innovation, partnership, public education and environmental impact.

Why it matters — The recognition highlights GFL's Montréal-East facility and its standing in the waste and recycling sector.

GFL Environmental Announces Appointment of Allen Gransch as Chief Operating Officer

PRNewsWire · 1 Oct 2026positive

GFL Environmental announced the appointment of Allen Gransch as Chief Operating Officer, effective October 1, 2026. Gransch joined GFL as Executive Vice President on September 1, 2026, in connection with the company's acquisition of SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp.

Why it matters — GFL watchers would note that the appointment signals leadership integration following the acquisition of SECURE and reflects the company's ongoing operational restructuring.

GFL Environmental Inc. Announces Quarterly Dividend

PRNewsWire · 29 Sept 2026neutral

GFL Environmental Inc. announced that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of US$0.0169 per subordinate voting share and multiple voting share for the third quarter of 2026. The dividend applies to all outstanding shares of the Company.

Why it matters — The declaration confirms GFL continues to return cash to shareholders through its regular quarterly dividend.

GFL Environmental Inc. Sets Date for Q3 2026 Earnings Release

PRNewsWire · 24 Sept 2026neutral

GFL Environmental Inc. announced it will release its Q3 2026 financial results after market close on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and will host an investor conference call on Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 8:30 am Eastern Time. The company is listed on both the NYSE and TSX.

Why it matters — Investors and analysts tracking GFL will note the scheduled dates for the company's upcoming quarterly earnings release and investor conference call.

NBPE Announces August Monthly NAV Update

GlobeNewsWire · 23 Sept 2026neutral

NBPE announced its August monthly net asset value (NAV) update. The announcement includes a disclosure restricting release, publication, or distribution in several jurisdictions.

Why it matters — This provides a relevant NAV update that GFL watchers may consider in the context of NBPE's holdings, though it contains no direct information about GFL.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about GFL stock

What is the GFL stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 21 Wall Street analysts covering GFL Environmental, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $52, with estimates ranging from $40 to $63. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is GFL stock a buy right now?

Of the 21 analysts covering GFL Environmental, Inc., 16 rate it a Buy, 3 a Hold and 2 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks GFL Environmental, Inc. 54 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 9 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank GFL?

As at 9 Oct 2026, GFL Environmental, Inc. ranks 54 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Revisions (74 of 100).

Will GFL stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 21 analysts implies +22.5% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks GFL Environmental, Inc. 54 out of 100 as at 9 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the GFL stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering GFL Environmental, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for GFL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $40 to $63 over the next 12 months.

How has GFL stock performed over the past year?

GFL Environmental, Inc. returned -7.7% over the 12 months to 12 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does GFL Environmental, Inc. do?

GFL Environmental Inc. is a North American environmental services company focused on non-hazardous solid waste management, liquid waste management, soil remediation, and related infrastructure services.

What is the latest news on GFL?

The most recent item we track (PRNewsWire, 8 Oct 2026): "GFL Environmental Awarded NWRA 2026 Recycling Facility of the Year". GFL Environmental announced that its Montréal-East Material Recovery Facility in Montréal, Quebec, received the NWRA 2026 Recycling Facility of the Year award. The award recognizes North American material recovery facilities based on factors including innovation, partnership, public education and environmental impact.

Company

About GFL Environmental, Inc.

GFL Environmental Inc. is a North American environmental services company focused on non-hazardous solid waste management, liquid waste management, soil remediation, and related infrastructure services. GFL Environmental Inc. serves municipal, residential, commercial, industrial, and institutional customers through an integrated network that includes collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, disposal, landfill, and material recovery operations. The company also provides specialized services such as dumpster rentals, roll-off container service, industrial cleaning, organics handling, document shredding, and environmental remediation. Its business is centered on essential waste-handling and recovery services that support communities, businesses, and public-sector clients across Canada and the United States. With a broad operational footprint and a diversified service mix, GFL Environmental Inc. plays a significant role in regional waste logistics, recycling, and environmental compliance across the North American market.

CEO Mr. Patrick Dovigi · 15,500 employees · United States · https://gflenv.com