MPBasic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & MiningThe 18 Wall Street analysts covering MP Materials Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $75 — +33.6% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 29 of 100 as at 29 Aug 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores MP Materials Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Growth (86): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.
Accruals (18): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Size (16): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MP, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +33.6% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 1 moved their price target up and 4 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | $82 |
| 29 July 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 29 July 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | $75 → $60 |
| 22 July 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 22 July 2026 | Needham | Maintains | Buy | $81 → $73 |
| 16 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | $69 → $65 |
| 16 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 9 July 2026 | Deutsche Bank | Maintains | Buy | $70 → $61 |
| 9 July 2026 | Deutsche Bank | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 8 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | $70 → $72 |
| 8 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 5 June 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 1 June 2026 | Needham | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 22 May 2026 | Barclays | Initiates | Overweight | — |
| 20 May 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 11 May 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 8 May 2026 | Wedbush | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Wedbush | Initiates | Outperform | — |
| 9 Apr 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 11 Mar 2026 | DA Davidson | Maintains | Buy | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. MP appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 28 Aug 2026, MP Materials Corp. returned −23.6% against +19.9% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 1% of US stocks
Cheaper than 8% of US stocks
Cheaper than 21% of US stocks
Cheaper than 1% of US stocks
Higher than 94% of US stocks
Higher than 83% of US stocks
Higher than 5% of US stocks
Higher than 23% of US stocks
Higher than 17% of US stocks
Higher than 40% of US stocks
Higher than 38% of US stocks
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
MP Materials Corp. has a market value of $10.0B and an enterprise value of $9.9B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $305.4M. The latest quarter grew 119.7% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: −$60.6M, a −19.9% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−0.34.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$504.6M.
Trailing P/E: 770.5×; forward P/E: 61.6× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
MP Materials Corp. employs 998 people — $306K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own MP Materials Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Zacks Investment Research compares MP Materials with NioCorp, noting that both companies offer distinct critical-minerals opportunities but differ in operational maturity and execution risk.
Why it matters — The comparison highlights how MP's operational maturity and execution track record position it relative to a less-developed competitor in the critical-minerals sector.
The Motley Fool presents a bull-versus-bear analysis of MP Materials, a top rare-earth bet. The piece notes that MP Materials' prospects hinge on ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, which may affect Chinese rare-earth magnet producers' ability to supply the U.S. market.
Why it matters — For MP Materials watchers, the outcome of U.S.-China trade tensions directly shapes demand and competitive positioning for U.S.-based rare-earth supply.
A Motley Fool article compares MP Materials with Enterprise Products, noting that both companies posted double-digit revenue growth in the second quarter. It highlights that rare-earth miner and processor MP Materials is receiving support from the U.S. Department of Defense.
Why it matters — For MP watchers, the article signals continued revenue momentum and U.S. government backing for the company's rare-earth operations.
MP Materials reported positive operating cash flow in the second quarter, though significant spending on downstream expansion continued to pressure free cash flow.
Why it matters — A watcher would care because the shift to positive operating cash flow signals improving core operations, while heavy downstream investment still weighs on free cash flow.
MP Materials signed a major long-term aerospace and defense deal. The article notes that Apple and the Pentagon have already validated MP's strategy, with the aerospace deal described as likely the first of several.
Why it matters — The aerospace and defense agreement expands MP Materials' customer base beyond its existing validation from Apple and the Pentagon, which could signal growing commercial momentum for the company.
The 18 Wall Street analysts covering MP Materials Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $75, with estimates ranging from $58 to $100. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 18 analysts covering MP Materials Corp., 18 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks MP Materials Corp. 29 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 29 Aug 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 29 Aug 2026, MP Materials Corp. ranks 29 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (86 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 18 analysts implies +33.6% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks MP Materials Corp. 29 out of 100 as at 29 Aug 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering MP Materials Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MP are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $58 to $100 over the next 12 months.
MP Materials Corp. returned -23.6% over the 12 months to 28 Aug 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
MP Materials Corp. is an American rare earth materials company focused on mining, processing, and manufacturing products used in modern industrial supply chains.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 31 Aug 2026): "MP vs. NB: Which Critical Minerals Stock is the Better Buy?". Zacks Investment Research compares MP Materials with NioCorp, noting that both companies offer distinct critical-minerals opportunities but differ in operational maturity and execution risk.
MP Materials Corp. is an American rare earth materials company focused on mining, processing, and manufacturing products used in modern industrial supply chains. The company operates through two segments: Materials and Magnetics. Its Materials segment runs the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility in California, where it produces rare earth concentrates, refined oxides, and neodymium-praseodymium products. The Magnetics segment manufactures magnetic precursor products and permanent magnets, supporting applications that require high-performance magnetic materials. MP Materials plays an important role in the rare earth market by supplying critical inputs for electrification, advanced manufacturing, and other technology-intensive industries. Headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada, MP Materials is a vertically integrated producer with operations centered on strengthening access to rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere.
CEO Mr. James Henry Litinsky · 998 employees · United States · https://mpmaterials.com
