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MP Stock Forecast: MP Materials Corp. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 6 Oct 2026
$49
+3.61% on the day

The 19 Wall Street analysts covering MP Materials Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $73 — +50.4% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 28 of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026 — in the lower half. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$8.3B
Ticker Nerd rank
28 / 100
Median analyst target
$73
Analysts covering
19
Revenue$108.5M+89.0% y/y
Operating income−$17.6M
Net income−$20.3M
Free cash flow−$223.5M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+6.8%
1M
−11.0%
YTD
−3.9%
1Y
−34.7%
From 52W high
−50.8%
From 52W low
+27.4%
$38
$99
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

MP stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores MP Materials Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 6 Oct 2026
28 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Growth
87
Revisions
51
Quality
51
Value
50
Volatility
42
Issuance
38
Momentum
23
Accruals
18
Size
17

Growth (87): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.

Accruals (18): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Size (17): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

MP stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on MP, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$40$50$60$70$80$90$100Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26MPHigh $100Median $73Low $57

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says19 analysts
18 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Low $57Median $73High $100

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +50.4% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 1 moved their price target up and 5 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
1 Oct 2026BairdMaintainsOutperform$80 → $65
16 Sept 2026Freedom BrokerInitiatesHold—
16 Sept 2026Freedom BrokerInitiatesHold$57
24 Aug 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy$82
24 Aug 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
29 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsOverweight—
29 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsOverweight$75 → $60
22 July 2026NeedhamMaintainsBuy—
22 July 2026NeedhamMaintainsBuy$81 → $73
16 July 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight$69 → $65
16 July 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
9 July 2026Deutsche BankMaintainsBuy$70 → $61
9 July 2026Deutsche BankMaintainsBuy—
8 July 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight$70 → $72
8 July 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight—
5 June 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
1 June 2026NeedhamInitiatesBuy—
22 May 2026BarclaysInitiatesOverweight—
20 May 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
11 May 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. MP appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

MP vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 6 Oct 2026, MP Materials Corp. returned −34.7% against +17.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

MP vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
6080100120140Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26MPS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

MP analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−91.9%
Analysts raising
1
Analysts cutting
8
Fundamentals

MP Materials Corp. (MP) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
770.5×

Cheaper than 1% of US stocks

Price / sales
20.0×

Cheaper than 9% of US stocks

Price / book
4.3×

Cheaper than 24% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
203.7×

Cheaper than 1% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
119.7%

Higher than 94% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
89.0%

Higher than 82% of US stocks

Gross margin
0.8%

Higher than 5% of US stocks

Operating margin
−14.7%

Higher than 23% of US stocks

Net margin
−14.6%

Higher than 17% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
−3.6%

Higher than 40% of US stocks

Return on assets
−1.5%

Higher than 38% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.0%

Higher than 1% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

MP Materials Corp. (MP) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • MP Materials Corp. has a market value of $8.3B and an enterprise value of $8.3B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $305.4M. The latest quarter grew 119.7% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: −$60.6M, a −19.9% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−0.34.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$504.6M.

  • Shares outstanding: 178.1M.

  • Trailing P/E: 770.5×; forward P/E: 56.9× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.

  • MP Materials Corp. employs 998 people — $306K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 6 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

MP vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelOther Industrial Metals & Mining
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
MPMP Materials Corp.$8.3B
28
MTRNMaterion Corp.$6.5B
72
USARUSA Rare Earth, Inc.$5.2B
9
SSMRSunshine Silver Mining & Refining Co.$2.2B
1
NEXANexa Resources SA$1.6B
98
TMCTMC the metals co., Inc.$1.6B
6
EMATEvolution Metals & Technologies Corp.$1.2B
10

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own MP Materials Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest MP news & analysis

First Citizens BancShares vs MP Materials: A Tale of 2 Regulation Bets

MarketBeat · 5 Oct 2026neutral

The article compares First Citizens BancShares and MP Materials as two different bets on Washington regulation — one benefiting from a lighter supervisory touch on banks, and the other tied to government checks to private companies, noting the rough performance of those government investments.

Why it matters — The piece frames MP Materials' fortunes as tied to Washington's spending and regulatory environment, which is relevant context for investors watching how government policy affects the company.

The Pentagon Bet $400 Million That One U.S. Company Could Break China's Rare Earth Monopoly. MP Materials Is About To Deliver GM's First Rare Earth Magnets Not Made In China

24/7 Wall Street · 5 Oct 2026positive

The Pentagon has invested $400 million in a U.S. company to challenge China's dominance in rare earth magnets. General Motors will be the first customer to receive rare earth magnets produced by MP Materials that are not made in China.

Why it matters — This milestone shows MP Materials delivering domestically produced rare earth magnets to a major automaker, potentially reducing U.S. reliance on Chinese supply.

Can America Break China's Grip on Rare Earths?

Bloomberg Markets and Finance · 4 Oct 2026neutral

Bloomberg reports on how China's decades-long dominance of rare-earth mining, processing, and magnet manufacturing has left the US dependent on foreign supply chains for critical materials. MP Materials is attempting to rebuild that chain domestically, expanding from its Mountain Pass mine in California into refining.

Why it matters — The report highlights MP Materials' effort to establish domestic rare-earth supply from its Mountain Pass operations, a development relevant to US efforts to reduce reliance on China.

These companies look set to face high-profile hearings and other scrutiny if Democrats win the House

Market Watch · 3 Oct 2026neutral

Law and lobbying firms in Washington, D.C., are advising companies to prepare for increased scrutiny, as most modern midterm elections result in some loss of congressional control for the party holding the White House. If Democrats win the House, some companies may face high-profile hearings.

Why it matters — MP Materials watchers would care because should Democrats take the House, the company could face heightened congressional hearings and regulatory scrutiny.

MP Materials Surges 6% as Traders Weigh Critical Minerals Growth Story; USA Rare Earth Rises 3%, Critical Metals Stays Flat

24/7 Wall Street · 30 Sept 2026positive

MP Materials shares rose 6% to $48.29 on Wednesday as traders weighed the company's critical minerals growth story. In the same session, USA Rare Earth gained 3% to $14.44, while Critical Metals was flat at $7.

Why it matters — The 6% share price increase reflects market attention on MP's critical minerals positioning and its relative performance against sector peers.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about MP stock

What is the MP stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 19 Wall Street analysts covering MP Materials Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $73, with estimates ranging from $57 to $100. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is MP stock a buy right now?

Of the 19 analysts covering MP Materials Corp., 18 rate it a Buy, 1 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks MP Materials Corp. 28 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 6 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank MP?

As at 6 Oct 2026, MP Materials Corp. ranks 28 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (87 of 100).

Will MP stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 19 analysts implies +50.4% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks MP Materials Corp. 28 out of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the MP stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering MP Materials Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for MP are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $57 to $100 over the next 12 months.

How has MP stock performed over the past year?

MP Materials Corp. returned -34.7% over the 12 months to 6 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does MP Materials Corp. do?

MP Materials Corp. is an American rare earth materials company focused on mining, processing, and manufacturing products used in modern industrial supply chains.

What is the latest news on MP?

The most recent item we track (MarketBeat, 5 Oct 2026): "First Citizens BancShares vs MP Materials: A Tale of 2 Regulation Bets". The article compares First Citizens BancShares and MP Materials as two different bets on Washington regulation — one benefiting from a lighter supervisory touch on banks, and the other tied to government checks to private companies, noting the rough performance of those government investments.

Company

About MP Materials Corp.

MP Materials Corp. is an American rare earth materials company focused on mining, processing, and manufacturing products used in modern industrial supply chains. The company operates through two segments: Materials and Magnetics. Its Materials segment runs the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility in California, where it produces rare earth concentrates, refined oxides, and neodymium-praseodymium products. The Magnetics segment manufactures magnetic precursor products and permanent magnets, supporting applications that require high-performance magnetic materials. MP Materials plays an important role in the rare earth market by supplying critical inputs for electrification, advanced manufacturing, and other technology-intensive industries. Headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada, MP Materials is a vertically integrated producer with operations centered on strengthening access to rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere.

CEO Mr. James Henry Litinsky · 998 employees · United States · https://mpmaterials.com