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USAR Stock Forecast: USA Rare Earth, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 6 Oct 2026
$14
+0.66% on the day

The 9 Wall Street analysts covering USA Rare Earth, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $35 — +154.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 9 of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$5.1B
Ticker Nerd rank
9 / 100
Median analyst target
$35
Analysts covering
9
Revenue$5.8M
Operating income−$46.1M
Net income−$12.0M
Free cash flow−$126.6M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−2.4%
1M
−22.0%
YTD
+15.5%
1Y
−47.8%
From 52W high
−64.5%
From 52W low
+15.5%
$12
$39
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

USAR stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores USA Rare Earth, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 6 Oct 2026
9 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Revisions
51
Accruals
35
Momentum
35
Issuance
33
Value
31
Volatility
27
Size
23
Growth
17
Quality
16

Revisions (51): Analysts have, on balance, been raising their forecasts.

Quality (16): Profits are thin or unreliable for the size of the business, or they are not turning into cash.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

USAR stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on USAR, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$10$20$30$40$50Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26USARHigh $45Median $35Low $21

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says9 analysts
9 Buy0 Hold0 Sell
Low $21Median $35High $45

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +154.7% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
2 Sept 2026JefferiesInitiatesBuy$21
22 July 2026NeedhamMaintainsBuy$39 → $33
22 July 2026NeedhamMaintainsBuy—
21 July 2026Roth CapitalMaintainsBuy$40 → $30
21 July 2026Roth CapitalMaintainsBuy—
1 June 2026NeedhamInitiatesBuy—
1 June 2026NeedhamInitiatesBuy$39
14 May 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsOverweight—
14 May 2026WedbushReiteratesOutperform—
12 May 2026WedbushMaintainsOutperform—
21 Apr 2026Canaccord GenuityMaintainsBuy—
20 Apr 2026WedbushInitiatesOutperform—
31 Mar 2026Canaccord GenuityMaintainsBuy—
30 Jan 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsOverweight—
27 Jan 2026Canaccord GenuityMaintainsBuy—
27 Jan 2026Roth CapitalMaintainsBuy—
7 Nov 2025Canaccord GenuityMaintainsBuy—
20 Oct 2025William BlairInitiatesOutperform—
30 Sept 2025Canaccord GenuityMaintainsBuy—
1 Aug 2025Cantor FitzgeraldInitiatesOverweight—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. USAR appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

USAR vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 6 Oct 2026, USA Rare Earth, Inc. returned −47.8% against +17.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

USAR vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
406080100120140160Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26USARS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

USAR analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
Analysts raising
1
Analysts cutting
1
Fundamentals

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
25.1×

Cheaper than 30% of US stocks

Price / sales
387.3×

Cheaper than 2% of US stocks

Price / book
1.6×

Cheaper than 52% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
−16.8×

Cheaper than 88% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
2.2%

Higher than 32% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
—
Gross margin
−27.2%

Higher than 3% of US stocks

Operating margin
−795.6%

Higher than 6% of US stocks

Net margin
11.9%

Higher than 73% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
−23.6%

Higher than 30% of US stocks

Return on assets
−4.4%

Higher than 33% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.0%

Higher than 1% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • USA Rare Earth, Inc. has a market value of $5.1B and an enterprise value of $1.8B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $13.2M. The latest quarter grew 2.2% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: −$287.5M, a −2184.5% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−2.43.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$245.5M, after $139.4M of capital spending.

  • Shares outstanding: 244.7M.

  • Trailing P/E: 25.1×; forward P/E: 453.0× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.

  • USA Rare Earth, Inc. employs 132 people — $100K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 6 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

USAR vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelOther Industrial Metals & Mining
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
USARUSA Rare Earth, Inc.$5.1B
9
MTRNMaterion Corp.$6.5B
72
MPMP Materials Corp.$8.6B
28
SSMRSunshine Silver Mining & Refining Co.$2.2B
1
NEXANexa Resources SA$1.6B
98
TMCTMC the metals co., Inc.$1.6B
6
EMATEvolution Metals & Technologies Corp.$1.2B
10

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own USA Rare Earth, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest USAR news & analysis

These companies look set to face high-profile hearings and other scrutiny if Democrats win the House

Market Watch · 3 Oct 2026neutral

Washington, D.C. law and lobbying firms are advising companies to prepare for heightened congressional scrutiny, as midterm elections typically result in the White House party losing some congressional control. The report notes that a Democratic win in the House could lead to high-profile hearings for certain companies.

Why it matters — A USAR watcher would care because a potential shift in congressional control could bring increased oversight and hearings that may affect companies operating in the sector.

I'm Not Buying USA Rare Earth Yet. Here's the 1 Thing I'm Waiting to See.

The Motley Fool · 1 Oct 2026neutral

The U.S. and China reached a trade agreement in late September and plan to discuss trade of rare-earth elements. Despite this, the U.S. continues to seek ways to shore up its domestic supply of the critical minerals.

Why it matters — A USAR watcher would care because continued U.S. efforts to build a domestic supply of critical minerals directly relate to the company's market opportunity, even as U.S.-China trade discussions around rare earths evolve.

USA Rare Earth Completes CEO Transition

GlobeNewsWire · 1 Oct 2026neutral

USA Rare Earth announced it has completed its previously disclosed CEO succession plan. The transition marks the conclusion of the leadership change for the rare earth, critical minerals, and advanced materials company.

Why it matters — A USAR watcher would care because the completion of the CEO transition resolves leadership uncertainty and establishes the company's management direction going forward.

MP Materials Surges 6% as Traders Weigh Critical Minerals Growth Story; USA Rare Earth Rises 3%, Critical Metals Stays Flat

24/7 Wall Street · 30 Sept 2026neutral

On Wednesday, USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ:USAR) shares rose 3% to $14.44, while MP Materials (NYSE:MP) surged 6% to $48.29 amid trader focus on critical minerals growth. Critical Metals (NASDAQ:CRML) stayed essentially flat at $7, up 0.1%.

Why it matters — For USA Rare Earth watchers, this report situates the company's share movement within the broader critical minerals sector on a day when peers saw widely varied trading.

MP Materials and USA Rare Earth Rallied on a Greenland Deal Neither Company Has Any Exposure To. Here's the Reality Check.

The Motley Fool · 30 Sept 2026negative

MP Materials and USA Rare Earth shares rallied in response to a Greenland rare-earth deal, but neither company has direct exposure to Greenland's rare-earth assets. Critical Metals Corp. and REalloys are named as the main beneficiaries of the deal.

Why it matters — USAR watchers should recognize that the company's rally was based on a deal it has no direct stake in, clarifying that the apparent gain was driven by mistaken market perception rather than company fundamentals.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about USAR stock

What is the USAR stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 9 Wall Street analysts covering USA Rare Earth, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $35, with estimates ranging from $21 to $45. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is USAR stock a buy right now?

Of the 9 analysts covering USA Rare Earth, Inc., 9 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks USA Rare Earth, Inc. 9 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 6 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank USAR?

As at 6 Oct 2026, USA Rare Earth, Inc. ranks 9 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Revisions (51 of 100).

Will USAR stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 9 analysts implies +154.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks USA Rare Earth, Inc. 9 out of 100 as at 6 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the USAR stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering USA Rare Earth, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for USAR are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $21 to $45 over the next 12 months.

How has USAR stock performed over the past year?

USA Rare Earth, Inc. returned -47.8% over the 12 months to 6 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does USA Rare Earth, Inc. do?

USA Rare Earth, Inc. is a rare earth, critical minerals, and advanced materials company focused on building a domestic supply chain for permanent magnets and related inputs.

What is the latest news on USAR?

The most recent item we track (Market Watch, 3 Oct 2026): "These companies look set to face high-profile hearings and other scrutiny if Democrats win the House". Washington, D.C. law and lobbying firms are advising companies to prepare for heightened congressional scrutiny, as midterm elections typically result in the White House party losing some congressional control. The report notes that a Democratic win in the House could lead to high-profile hearings for certain companies.

Company

About USA Rare Earth, Inc.

USA Rare Earth, Inc. is a rare earth, critical minerals, and advanced materials company focused on building a domestic supply chain for permanent magnets and related inputs. The company develops capabilities across mining, processing, metal and alloy production, and magnet manufacturing, with operations centered on its Stillwater, Oklahoma facility and the Round Top deposit in West Texas. Its primary product is sintered NdFeB permanent magnets, which are used in semiconductors, aerospace, defense, mobility, energy, healthcare, robotics, and consumer electronics. USA Rare Earth also works with rare earth elements and heavy rare earths that are essential to high-performance magnetic applications. The company plays a role in supplying materials that support industrial manufacturing and technology-intensive sectors.

CEO Ms. Barbara W. Humpton · 132 employees · United States · https://www.usare.com