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ORLY Stock Forecast: O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 9 Oct 2026
$86
+0.51% on the day

The 29 Wall Street analysts covering O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $109 — +26.1% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 59 of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$69.6B
Ticker Nerd rank
59 / 100
Median analyst target
$109
Analysts covering
29
Revenue$4.9B+8.1% y/y
Operating income$985.7M
Net income$715.1M
Free cash flow$698.9M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+1.8%
1M
+0.4%
YTD
−5.2%
1Y
−13.3%
From 52W high
−16.1%
From 52W low
+4.5%
$83
$103
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

ORLY stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 8 Oct 2026
59 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Volatility
99
Quality
92
Revisions
82
Growth
58
Issuance
56
Value
41
Momentum
40
Accruals
34
Size
4

Volatility (99): The share price has been relatively steady.

Accruals (34): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Size (4): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

ORLY stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ORLY, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$80$90$100$110$120Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26ORLYHigh $120Median $109Low $91

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says29 analysts
23 Buy6 Hold0 Sell
Low $91Median $109High $120

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +26.1% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 1 moved their price target up and 2 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
29 Sept 2026BernsteinInitiatesMarket Perform$94
18 Sept 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
18 Sept 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy$106
16 Sept 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy$106
16 Sept 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
3 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsBuy—
3 Aug 2026CitigroupMaintainsBuy$104 → $106
31 July 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$117 → $110
31 July 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
30 July 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight—
30 July 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight$112 → $108
22 July 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
22 July 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy$114
7 July 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy$114
7 July 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
8 May 2026MizuhoMaintainsOutperform—
1 May 2026CitigroupMaintainsBuy—
1 May 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
1 May 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsOutperform—
1 May 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. ORLY appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

ORLY vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 9 Oct 2026, O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. returned −13.3% against +16.6% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

ORLY vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
8090100110120Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26ORLYS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

ORLY analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+0.7%
Analysts raising
1
Analysts cutting
0
Fundamentals

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
27.4×

Cheaper than 28% of US stocks

Price / sales
3.8×

Cheaper than 33% of US stocks

Price / book
−38.9×

Cheaper than 99% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
18.9×

Cheaper than 17% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
8.1%

Higher than 47% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
7.0%

Higher than 44% of US stocks

Gross margin
51.4%

Higher than 64% of US stocks

Operating margin
20.2%

Higher than 79% of US stocks

Net margin
14.3%

Higher than 76% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
−332.5%

Higher than 5% of US stocks

Return on assets
13.7%

Higher than 96% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.0%

Higher than 1% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. has a market value of $69.6B and an enterprise value of $78.9B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $18.6B. The latest quarter grew 8.1% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $2.7B, a 14.3% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $3.14.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $2.2B.

  • O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. spent $3.4B on share buybacks in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 816.2M.

  • Trailing P/E: 27.4×; forward P/E: 23.6× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.

  • O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. employs 95,822 people — $194K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 9 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

ORLY vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelAuto Parts
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc.$69.6B
59
AZOAutoZone, Inc.$48.4B
47
GPCGenuine Parts Co.$17.8B
59
BWABorgWarner, Inc.$12.7B
97
AURAurora Innovation, Inc.$11.2B
22
MODModine Manufacturing Co.$9.6B
37
APTVAptiv Plc$9.4B
66

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest ORLY news & analysis

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Announces Dates for Its Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call

GlobeNewsWire · 1 Oct 2026neutral

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. announced it will release its third quarter 2026 financial results on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, followed by a conference call on Thursday, October 29, 2026. The announcement was made by the company on October 1, 2026.

Why it matters — This gives O'Reilly watchers the scheduled dates to mark for the upcoming third quarter earnings report and related conference call.

O'Reilly Automotive's Stock Slump Hides a Stronger Business

MarketBeat · 30 Sept 2026neutral

O'Reilly Automotive has delivered consistent comparable-store sales growth year after year despite its stock declining over the past year. The article characterizes the share price slump as obscuring what it sees as a fundamentally stronger underlying business.

Why it matters — An ORLY watcher would care because the piece highlights the contrast between the company's steady operating performance and its recent share price weakness, suggesting the market's current assessment may not fully reflect the retailer's ongoing growth.

Used Cars Are the New Luxury Vehicles: 3-Year Old Beaters Now Cost Over $32,400

24/7 Wall Street · 30 Sept 2026neutral

Used cars have become increasingly expensive, with three-year-old vehicles now costing over $32,400. The article notes that while used-car lots were once a more affordable option for buyers, the price gap has narrowed substantially, making even older used vehicles costly.

Why it matters — Higher used-car prices could influence how many vehicles are on the road and how owners maintain them, which is relevant to an auto parts retailer like O'Reilly Automotive.

America's Cars Keep Getting Older. These 4 Auto Parts Stocks Get Paid

24/7 Wall Street · 26 Sept 2026positive

The article highlights that the average American car is now 13 years old, and notes that four auto parts distributors, including O'Reilly Automotive, benefit financially each time an aging vehicle breaks down. It examines which of these companies offers the steadiest outlook in a high-interest, high-repair economy.

Why it matters — A rising average vehicle age typically drives more repair and replacement demand, which supports parts distributors like O'Reilly in an otherwise challenging high-rate environment.

AutoZone Climbs 6% as Profit Beat Offsets Revenue Miss; Advance Auto Parts Rises 6%, O'Reilly Automotive Gains 4%

24/7 Wall Street · 22 Sept 2026positive

AutoZone reported a fourth quarter that beat on profit but missed on sales, and the reaction spread through auto parts retailers rather than consumer discretionary as a whole. AutoZone and Advance Auto Parts each rose 6%, while O'Reilly Automotive gained 4%.

Why it matters — An ORLY watcher would care because O'Reilly's share price moved up alongside other auto parts retailers in reaction to AutoZone's earnings results.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about ORLY stock

What is the ORLY stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 29 Wall Street analysts covering O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $109, with estimates ranging from $91 to $120. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is ORLY stock a buy right now?

Of the 29 analysts covering O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., 23 rate it a Buy, 6 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. 59 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 8 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank ORLY?

As at 8 Oct 2026, O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. ranks 59 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Volatility (99 of 100).

Will ORLY stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 29 analysts implies +26.1% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. 59 out of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the ORLY stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ORLY are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $91 to $120 over the next 12 months.

How has ORLY stock performed over the past year?

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. returned -13.3% over the 12 months to 9 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. do?

O'Reilly Automotive Inc. is a specialty retailer and distributor of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories.

What is the latest news on ORLY?

The most recent item we track (GlobeNewsWire, 1 Oct 2026): "O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Announces Dates for Its Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call". O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. announced it will release its third quarter 2026 financial results on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, followed by a conference call on Thursday, October 29, 2026. The announcement was made by the company on October 1, 2026.

Company

About O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

O'Reilly Automotive Inc. is a specialty retailer and distributor of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories. O'Reilly Automotive serves both professional service providers and do-it-yourself customers through a broad product range that supports vehicle repair, maintenance, and customization. The company’s offerings include replacement parts, batteries, brakes, filters, fluids, and diagnostic tools, along with related services such as parts sourcing and local delivery for repair shops. Its business is centered on keeping vehicles operating efficiently by providing essential components and support across everyday maintenance and repair needs. O'Reilly Automotive plays an important role in the automotive aftermarket by connecting consumers and professionals with the parts and services needed to maintain and extend the life of vehicles.

95,822 employees · United States · https://www.oreillyauto.com