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PGRPGRFinancial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

PGR Stock Forecast: The Progressive Corp. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 14 Oct 2026
$213
−4.23% on the day

The 25 Wall Street analysts covering The Progressive Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $232 — +8.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 46 of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026 — in the lower half.

Market cap
$129.4B
Ticker Nerd rank
46 / 100
Median analyst target
$232
Analysts covering
25
Revenue$23.6B+7.3% y/y
Net income$3.3B
Free cash flow$3.5B
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−0.3%
1M
−3.4%
YTD
−0.5%
1Y
−5.8%
From 52W high
−8.9%
From 52W low
+12.2%
$190
$234
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

PGR stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores The Progressive Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 14 Oct 2026
46 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Quality
96
Volatility
83
Issuance
60
Revisions
60
Growth
49
Momentum
44
Value
44
Accruals
27
Size
2

Quality (96): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.

Accruals (27): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Size (2): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

PGR stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on PGR, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$200$250$300Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26PGRHigh $314Median $232Low $198

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says25 analysts
8 Buy16 Hold1 Sell
Low $198Median $232High $314

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +8.7% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 6 moved their price target up and 4 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
7 Oct 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight$246 → $247
5 Oct 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$241 → $250
18 Sept 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsReiteratesOutperform$250
18 Sept 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsReiteratesOutperform—
16 Sept 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral$236 → $230
16 Sept 2026MizuhoMaintainsNeutral—
27 Aug 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral—
27 Aug 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral$225 → $234
20 Aug 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsUpgradeOutperform$226 → $250
20 Aug 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsUpgradeOutperform—
20 Aug 2026Wells FargoMaintainsUnderweight$198 → $201
20 Aug 2026Wells FargoMaintainsUnderweight—
17 Aug 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsNeutral$220 → $200
17 Aug 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsNeutral—
4 Aug 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
4 Aug 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$250 → $241
24 July 2026Morgan StanleyUpgradeEqual-Weight$190 → $210
24 July 2026Morgan StanleyUpgradeEqual-Weight—
16 July 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsBuy—
16 July 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsBuy$313 → $308

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. PGR appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

PGR vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 14 Oct 2026, The Progressive Corp. returned −5.8% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

PGR vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
8090100110120Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26PGRS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

PGR analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+4.5%
Analysts raising
11
Analysts cutting
2
Fundamentals

The Progressive Corp. (PGR) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
11.2×

Cheaper than 55% of US stocks

Price / sales
1.4×

Cheaper than 60% of US stocks

Price / book
3.8×

Cheaper than 25% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
8.7×

Cheaper than 42% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
7.3%

Higher than 45% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
4.3%

Higher than 41% of US stocks

Gross margin
—
Operating margin
18.2%

Higher than 77% of US stocks

Net margin
12.8%

Higher than 75% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
34.9%

Higher than 90% of US stocks

Return on assets
7.8%

Higher than 87% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.2%

Higher than 63% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

The Progressive Corp. (PGR) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • The Progressive Corp. has a market value of $129.4B and an enterprise value of $134.3B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $91.0B. The latest quarter grew 7.3% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $11.7B, a 12.8% net margin.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $16.0B.

  • The Progressive Corp. spent $1.2B on share buybacks and $8.1B on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 581.4M.

  • Trailing P/E: 11.2×; forward P/E: 13.6× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.18%, paying out 70% of earnings.

  • The Progressive Corp. employs 70,053 people — $1.3M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 15 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

PGR vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelInsurance - Property & Casualty
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
PGRThe Progressive Corp.$129.4B
46
CBChubb Ltd.$137.8B
70
TRVThe Travelers Cos., Inc.$80.3B
90
ALLThe Allstate Corp.$59.7B
94
WRBW.R. Berkley Corp.$27.5B
62
CINFCincinnati Financial Corp.$26.0B
72
MKLMarkel Group, Inc.$22.7B
37

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own The Progressive Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest PGR news & analysis

The Progressive Q3 Panic Is Overdone

Seeking Alpha · 15 Oct 2026neutral

Seeking Alpha describes Progressive’s Q3 as a disappointment, citing 1% premium growth, a monthly decline of 31,000 auto policies and a two-year-high underlying loss ratio of 68.7. However, its 88.7 combined ratio, or 91.1 excluding reserve releases, remained below the sub-96 target, with every segment under 96.

Why it matters — PGR watchers may weigh softer growth and higher underlying losses against combined ratios that remained below the stated target.

13 Graham Value Dividend All-Stars (GVAS) Shine In October

Seeking Alpha · 15 Oct 2026neutral

Seeking Alpha reported that October’s top Graham Value Dividend All-Stars had projected net gains of 27.17% to 67.83% by October 2027, averaging 42.47%. It said 13 of 27 lower-priced stocks were considered fairly priced, while cautioning about dividends funded by borrowing or negative free cash flow.

Why it matters — The item discusses a broad group of dividend stocks and does not provide specific information about The Progressive Corp.

Progressive's Q3 Earnings Top Estimates on Higher Premiums

Zacks Investment Research · 14 Oct 2026positive

Progressive's third-quarter earnings beat estimates, supported by higher premiums and an improved combined ratio. Policy growth remained strong in September.

Why it matters — The results highlight premium growth, underwriting performance, and continued policy growth for PGR watchers.

Hotter CPI Sends Futures Lower as Yields Jump

Zacks Investment Research · 14 Oct 2026neutral

Hotter-than-expected CPI was reported alongside falling futures and rising yields, according to the headline. The excerpt provides no further details.

Why it matters — A PGR watcher may note the broader market and interest-rate context, though the excerpt gives no company-specific information.

Progressive (PGR) Q3 Earnings Top Estimates

Zacks Investment Research · 14 Oct 2026positive

Progressive reported quarterly earnings of $4.60 per share, above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.46. Earnings were $4.05 per share a year earlier.

Why it matters — PGR watchers may note that quarterly earnings exceeded the consensus estimate and increased from a year earlier.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about PGR stock

What is the PGR stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 25 Wall Street analysts covering The Progressive Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $232, with estimates ranging from $198 to $314. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is PGR stock a buy right now?

Of the 25 analysts covering The Progressive Corp., 8 rate it a Buy, 16 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks The Progressive Corp. 46 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 14 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank PGR?

As at 14 Oct 2026, The Progressive Corp. ranks 46 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (96 of 100).

Will PGR stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 25 analysts implies +8.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks The Progressive Corp. 46 out of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the PGR stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering The Progressive Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for PGR are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $198 to $314 over the next 12 months.

How has PGR stock performed over the past year?

The Progressive Corp. returned -5.8% over the 12 months to 14 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does The Progressive Corp. do?

The Progressive Corporation is a U.S. property and casualty insurance company that provides personal and commercial auto insurance, as well as related specialty coverage.

What is the latest news on PGR?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 15 Oct 2026): "The Progressive Q3 Panic Is Overdone". Seeking Alpha describes Progressive’s Q3 as a disappointment, citing 1% premium growth, a monthly decline of 31,000 auto policies and a two-year-high underlying loss ratio of 68.7. However, its 88.7 combined ratio, or 91.1 excluding reserve releases, remained below the sub-96 target, with every segment under 96.

Company

About The Progressive Corp.

The Progressive Corporation is a U.S. property and casualty insurance company that provides personal and commercial auto insurance, as well as related specialty coverage. Its core offerings include personal auto policies, motorcycle, RV, and watercraft insurance, along with homeowners and renters coverage through personal lines products. The company also serves businesses with commercial auto, truck, and general liability insurance, supporting small companies and transportation operators with tailored protection. Progressive distributes its products through independent agents, direct channels, online platforms, and phone-based service, giving it broad reach across consumer and business markets. Headquartered in Mayfield Village, Ohio, The Progressive Corporation is recognized as one of the largest auto insurers in the United States and plays a significant role in the North American insurance market.

CEO Ms. Susan Patricia Griffith · 70,053 employees · United States · https://www.progressive.com