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PGRPGRFinancial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

PGR Stock Forecast: The Progressive Corp. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 2 Sept 2026
$221
+0.38% on the day

The 25 Wall Street analysts covering The Progressive Corp. hold a median 12-month price target of $233 — +5.2% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 51 of 100 as at 1 Sept 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$128.2B
Ticker Nerd rank
51 / 100
Median analyst target
$233
Analysts covering
25
Revenue$23.6B+7.3% y/y
Net income$3.3B
Free cash flow$3.5B
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−0.5%
1M
+4.7%
YTD
+3.1%
1Y
−4.4%
From 52W high
−5.7%
From 52W low
+16.3%
$190
$235
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

PGR stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores The Progressive Corp. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 1 Sept 2026
51 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Quality
97
Volatility
75
Revisions
75
Issuance
59
Growth
55
Value
44
Momentum
44
Accruals
22
Size
2

Quality (97): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.

Accruals (22): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Size (2): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

PGR stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on PGR, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$180$200$220$240$260$280$300$320Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26PGRHigh $309Median $233Low $198

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says25 analysts
8 Buy15 Hold2 Sell
Low $198Median $233High $309

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +5.2% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 4 moved their price target up and 7 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
27 Aug 2026UBSMaintainsNeutral$225 → $234
20 Aug 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsUpgradeOutperform$226 → $250
20 Aug 2026Wells FargoMaintainsUnderweight$198 → $201
17 Aug 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsNeutral$220 → $200
17 Aug 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsNeutral—
4 Aug 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral—
4 Aug 2026JP MorganMaintainsNeutral$250 → $241
24 July 2026Morgan StanleyUpgradeEqual-Weight—
24 July 2026Morgan StanleyUpgradeEqual-Weight$190 → $210
16 July 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsBuy$313 → $308
16 July 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainsBuy—
16 July 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsMarket Perform—
16 July 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsMarket Perform$220 → $205
16 July 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line$240 → $230
16 July 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsIn-Line—
16 July 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform$231 → $226
16 July 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
16 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsUnderweight$205 → $198
16 July 2026Wells FargoMaintainsUnderweight—
14 July 2026JP MorganDowngradeNeutral$250

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. PGR appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

PGR vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 2 Sept 2026, The Progressive Corp. returned −4.4% against +20.8% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

PGR vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
8090100110120Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26PGRS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

PGR analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+9.3%
Analysts raising
12
Analysts cutting
9
Fundamentals

The Progressive Corp. (PGR) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
11.1×

Cheaper than 57% of US stocks

Price / sales
1.4×

Cheaper than 62% of US stocks

Price / book
3.7×

Cheaper than 28% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
8.7×

Cheaper than 43% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
7.3%

Higher than 45% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
4.3%

Higher than 41% of US stocks

Gross margin
—
Operating margin
18.2%

Higher than 77% of US stocks

Net margin
12.8%

Higher than 75% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
34.9%

Higher than 90% of US stocks

Return on assets
7.8%

Higher than 87% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.2%

Higher than 3% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

The Progressive Corp. (PGR) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • The Progressive Corp. has a market value of $128.2B and an enterprise value of $133.3B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $91.0B. The latest quarter grew 7.3% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $11.7B, a 12.8% net margin.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $16.0B.

  • The Progressive Corp. spent $1.2B on share buybacks and $8.1B on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 581.4M.

  • Trailing P/E: 11.1×; forward P/E: 13.5× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.18%, paying out 70% of earnings.

  • The Progressive Corp. employs 70,053 people — $1.3M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 3 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

PGR vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelInsurance - Property & Casualty
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
PGRThe Progressive Corp.$128.2B
51
CBChubb Ltd.$133.3B
67
TRVThe Travelers Cos., Inc.$77.4B
91
ALLThe Allstate Corp.$65.2B
95
CINFCincinnati Financial Corp.$26.6B
66
WRBW.R. Berkley Corp.$25.2B
61
MKLMarkel Group, Inc.$22.7B
36

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own The Progressive Corp. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest PGR news & analysis

Progressive (PGR) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note

Zacks Investment Research · 27 Aug 2026negative

In the most recent trading day, Progressive (PGR) shares closed at $217.65, down 2.18% from the prior session even as the broader market posted gains. The decline stands out against the market's positive performance.

Why it matters — A PGR watcher would be interested because the stock underperformed the broader market on the day, marking a notable single-session decline in share price.

Progressive: July Results Show The Growth Mix Is Changing

Seeking Alpha · 26 Aug 2026positive

Progressive's July results indicate a changing growth mix, with policies in force growing faster than written premiums as customer growth replaces some of the earlier pricing tailwind. Investment income rose 12.3% to $2.23 billion as the portfolio approached $98 billion, adding to underwriting profits.

Why it matters — A PGR watcher would care because the shift toward customer-driven growth and rising investment income signals an evolving earnings mix beyond pricing and underwriting.

Progressive's July Earnings Decline Y/Y on Escalating Expenses

Zacks Investment Research · 20 Aug 2026negative

Progressive's July premiums and policies in force grew year over year, but the company's earnings declined due to escalating expenses and securities losses that pressured earnings and margins.

Why it matters — A PGR watcher would care because despite continued premium growth, rising costs and securities losses are eating into the company's earnings and profitability.

Progressive Reports July 2026 Results

GlobeNewsWire · 19 Aug 2026neutral

The Progressive Corporation reported its results for the month ended July 31, 2026, as announced on Aug. 19, 2026. The release details the company's monthly performance figures for that period.

Why it matters — PGR watchers would care because the company's monthly results provide a timely update on its business performance and financial trends.

Billionaire Bruce Berkowitz Reveals 76% Of Fairholme Capital Is in Just 1 Stock

24/7 Wall Street · 18 Aug 2026neutral

Fairholme Capital, run by billionaire Bruce Berkowitz, disclosed in its Q2 2026 13F filing that it holds 18,182,367 shares of a single stock, which represents 76% of the fund's portfolio. The filing highlights the fund's concentrated position in one company.

Why it matters — A PGR watcher would care because the article discusses a major fund manager's concentrated stock holdings, which may relate to broader positioning among insurers like Progressive.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about PGR stock

What is the PGR stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 25 Wall Street analysts covering The Progressive Corp. have a median 12-month price target of $233, with estimates ranging from $198 to $309. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is PGR stock a buy right now?

Of the 25 analysts covering The Progressive Corp., 8 rate it a Buy, 15 a Hold and 2 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks The Progressive Corp. 51 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 1 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank PGR?

As at 1 Sept 2026, The Progressive Corp. ranks 51 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (97 of 100).

Will PGR stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 25 analysts implies +5.2% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks The Progressive Corp. 51 out of 100 as at 1 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the PGR stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering The Progressive Corp. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for PGR are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $198 to $309 over the next 12 months.

How has PGR stock performed over the past year?

The Progressive Corp. returned -4.4% over the 12 months to 2 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does The Progressive Corp. do?

The Progressive Corporation is a property and casualty insurance company that provides personal and commercial coverage across the United States. Its core offerings include personal auto insurance, commercial auto insurance, and specialty lines for motorcycles, recreational vehicles, boats, and watercraft.

What is the latest news on PGR?

The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 27 Aug 2026): "Progressive (PGR) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note". In the most recent trading day, Progressive (PGR) shares closed at $217.65, down 2.18% from the prior session even as the broader market posted gains. The decline stands out against the market's positive performance.

Company

About The Progressive Corp.

The Progressive Corporation is a property and casualty insurance company that provides personal and commercial coverage across the United States. Its core offerings include personal auto insurance, commercial auto insurance, and specialty lines for motorcycles, recreational vehicles, boats, and watercraft. The company also underwrites residential property insurance for homeowners and renters, along with business-related liability, commercial property, and workers’ compensation coverage for small businesses and transportation operators. Progressive distributes its products through independent insurance agencies, direct online channels, and phone-based sales, giving it a broad presence across consumer and business insurance markets. The Progressive Corporation plays a significant role in auto-focused insurance, while also serving customers seeking bundled protection for vehicles, homes, and specialty assets.

CEO Ms. Susan Patricia Griffith · 70,053 employees · United States · https://www.progressive.com