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SHOP Stock Forecast: Shopify, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 18 Sept 2026
$129
−0.08% on the day

The 54 Wall Street analysts covering Shopify, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $176 — +36.6% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 69 of 100 as at 19 Sept 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$166.7B
Ticker Nerd rank
69 / 100
Median analyst target
$176
Analysts covering
54
Revenue$3.6B+33.7% y/y
Operating income$629.0M
Net income$1.5B
Free cash flow$654.0M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−0.2%
1M
−12.3%
YTD
−20.2%
1Y
−15.5%
From 52W high
−28.2%
From 52W low
+34.7%
$95
$179
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

SHOP stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Shopify, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 19 Sept 2026
69 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Quality
97
Issuance
95
Revisions
82
Growth
66
Accruals
58
Momentum
44
Volatility
30
Value
28
Size
2

Quality (97): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.

Value (28): The shares cost a lot relative to the profits and assets behind them.

Size (2): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

SHOP stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on SHOP, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$100$120$140$160$180$200$220Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26SHOPHigh $220Median $176Low $120

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says54 analysts
42 Buy11 Hold1 Sell
Low $120Median $176High $220

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +36.6% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 9 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
11 Sept 2026BernsteinInitiatesOutperform$160
8 Sept 2026Piper SandlerReiteratesOverweight$172 → $180
20 Aug 2026RosenblattInitiatesBuy$175
20 Aug 2026RosenblattInitiatesBuy—
7 Aug 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight—
7 Aug 2026Wells FargoMaintainsOverweight$144 → $180
6 Aug 2026BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight—
6 Aug 2026BarclaysMaintainsEqual-Weight$126 → $145
6 Aug 2026BenchmarkMaintainsBuy—
6 Aug 2026BenchmarkMaintainsBuy$145 → $170
6 Aug 2026Canaccord GenuityMaintainsBuy$145 → $180
6 Aug 2026Canaccord GenuityMaintainsBuy—
6 Aug 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsNeutral$127 → $145
6 Aug 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainsNeutral—
6 Aug 2026CitizensMaintainsMarket Outperform—
6 Aug 2026CitizensMaintainsMarket Outperform$150 → $185
6 Aug 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy—
6 Aug 2026DA DavidsonMaintainsBuy$140 → $200
6 Aug 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsOutperform—
6 Aug 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainsOutperform$135 → $175

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. SHOP appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

SHOP vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 18 Sept 2026, Shopify, Inc. returned −15.5% against +16.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

SHOP vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
60708090100110120Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26SHOPS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

SHOP analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+3.8%
Analysts raising
29
Analysts cutting
6
Fundamentals

Shopify, Inc. (SHOP) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
86.8×

Cheaper than 8% of US stocks

Price / sales
12.5×

Cheaper than 13% of US stocks

Price / book
13.1×

Cheaper than 7% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
67.0×

Cheaper than 3% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
33.7%

Higher than 80% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
65.8%

Higher than 79% of US stocks

Gross margin
47.7%

Higher than 59% of US stocks

Operating margin
17.6%

Higher than 76% of US stocks

Net margin
14.5%

Higher than 77% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
15.5%

Higher than 75% of US stocks

Return on assets
10.2%

Higher than 92% of US stocks

Dividend yield
—

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Shopify, Inc. (SHOP) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Shopify, Inc. has a market value of $166.7B and an enterprise value of $160.6B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $13.3B. The latest quarter grew 33.7% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $1.9B, a 14.5% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.48.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $2.4B.

  • Shares outstanding: 1.3B.

  • Trailing P/E: 86.8×; forward P/E: 52.4× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Shopify, Inc. employs 7,600 people — $1.7M of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 19 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

SHOP vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelSoftware - Application
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
SHOPShopify, Inc.$166.7B
69
UBERUber Technologies, Inc.$146.5B
49
NOWServiceNow, Inc.$140.7B
31
CRMSalesforce, Inc.$194.6B
70
SNOWSnowflake, Inc.$112.6B
63
ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc.$109.7B
71
ADBEAdobe, Inc.$98.9B
82

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Shopify, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest SHOP news & analysis

A $10,000 Stake in Shopify Is Worth About $311,000 a Decade Later. The Business Grew Almost as Much as the Stock.

The Motley Fool · 19 Sept 2026positive

The Motley Fool highlights Shopify's strong growth over the past decade, noting that revenue rose from about $389 million in 2016 to $11.6 billion in 2025, an almost 30-fold increase. Gross merchandise volume also grew substantially, reaching $378 billion last year, up from $15.4 billion in 2016.

Why it matters — The figures underscore Shopify's sustained scaling in both revenue and platform volume, giving investors evidence of long-term business expansion alongside its stock performance.

Chris Wang on PLTR, META, SHOP Stock Picks Amid AI Safety Concerns

Schwab Network · 17 Sept 2026positive

Chris Wang discussed his stock picks including SHOP, PLTR, and META on the Schwab Network amid warnings from Anthropic and OpenAI leadership about AI safety. He shared his view on how AI regulation may shift and noted opportunities across the AI trade, particularly on the software side.

Why it matters — SHOP watchers would care because the commentary identifies Shopify as a software-side AI trade opportunity and discusses the regulatory environment affecting AI-related companies.

Shopify CEO says employees' 'slop grenades' are making more work for everyone else

Business Insider · 17 Sept 2026neutral

Shopify CEO Tobias Lütke said he dislikes "slop grenades," which he described as poorly vetted, AI-generated material that forces coworkers to review, fix, or summarize. His comments highlight concerns about low-quality AI output adding work for others.

Why it matters — The CEO's stance signals how Shopify views AI-generated work quality and productivity, which could influence internal policies and company culture for shareholders monitoring.

Shopify Plunges 13% in a Month: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Zacks Investment Research · 16 Sept 2026negative

Shopify's stock has fallen 12.6% over the past month, pressured by concerns about growth prospects and a rich valuation. The report notes that AI commerce, payments, and enterprise expansion continue to support the company's prospects.

Why it matters — A SHOP watcher would care because the stock's recent double-digit decline highlights market concern over growth and valuation, even as the company's underlying business areas such as AI commerce, payments, and enterprise expansion show potential.

Shopify Merchants Could Get AI Orders Without Shoppers Visiting Their Websites

24/7 Wall Street · 16 Sept 2026positive

Meta's new AI shopping agent can place orders on a shopper's behalf without requiring them to visit a merchant's website. Shopify is positioned in the middle of that transaction flow, according to 24/7 Wall Street.

Why it matters — A Shopify watcher would care because this development could place Shopify at the center of emerging AI-driven ordering channels involving a major platform like Meta.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about SHOP stock

What is the SHOP stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 54 Wall Street analysts covering Shopify, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $176, with estimates ranging from $120 to $220. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is SHOP stock a buy right now?

Of the 54 analysts covering Shopify, Inc., 42 rate it a Buy, 11 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Shopify, Inc. 69 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 19 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank SHOP?

As at 19 Sept 2026, Shopify, Inc. ranks 69 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (97 of 100).

Will SHOP stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 54 analysts implies +36.6% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Shopify, Inc. 69 out of 100 as at 19 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the SHOP stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Shopify, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for SHOP are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $120 to $220 over the next 12 months.

How has SHOP stock performed over the past year?

Shopify, Inc. returned -15.5% over the 12 months to 18 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Shopify, Inc. do?

Shopify Inc. is a Canadian commerce technology company that provides software and services for businesses to create, manage, and grow retail operations across online and offline channels.

What is the latest news on SHOP?

The most recent item we track (The Motley Fool, 19 Sept 2026): "A $10,000 Stake in Shopify Is Worth About $311,000 a Decade Later. The Business Grew Almost as Much as the Stock.". The Motley Fool highlights Shopify's strong growth over the past decade, noting that revenue rose from about $389 million in 2016 to $11.6 billion in 2025, an almost 30-fold increase. Gross merchandise volume also grew substantially, reaching $378 billion last year, up from $15.4 billion in 2016.

Company

About Shopify, Inc.

Shopify Inc. is a Canadian commerce technology company that provides software and services for businesses to create, manage, and grow retail operations across online and offline channels. Its core platform helps merchants build storefronts, manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, handle shipping, and maintain customer relationships. Shopify also offers merchant services such as integrated payment processing, point-of-sale tools, shipping labels, apps, themes, and financing-related products that support day-to-day commerce operations. The company serves businesses of many sizes across North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Founded in 2004 and headquartered in Ottawa, Canada, Shopify plays a central role in modern e-commerce by providing the digital infrastructure that connects merchants with consumers across web, mobile, social, and physical retail environments.

CEO Mr. Tobias Lutke · 7,600 employees · Canada · https://www.shopify.com