SHOPTechnology · Software - ApplicationThe 54 Wall Street analysts covering Shopify, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $178 — -1.0% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 73 of 100 as at 9 Oct 2026 — in the upper half. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Shopify, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Quality (97): The business earns solid, repeatable profits on what it owns.
Value (25): The shares cost a lot relative to the profits and assets behind them.
Size (1): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on SHOP, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −1.0% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 7 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | $185 → $200 |
| 23 Sept 2026 | Wedbush | Reiterates | Outperform | — |
| 23 Sept 2026 | Wedbush | Reiterates | Outperform | $176 |
| 11 Sept 2026 | Bernstein | Initiates | Outperform | $160 |
| 11 Sept 2026 | Bernstein | Initiates | Outperform | — |
| 8 Sept 2026 | Piper Sandler | Reiterates | Overweight | $172 → $180 |
| 8 Sept 2026 | Piper Sandler | Reiterates | Overweight | — |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Rosenblatt | Initiates | Buy | $175 |
| 20 Aug 2026 | Rosenblatt | Initiates | Buy | — |
| 7 Aug 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 7 Aug 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Overweight | $144 → $180 |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $126 → $145 |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Benchmark | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Benchmark | Maintains | Buy | $145 → $170 |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy | $145 → $180 |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | $127 → $145 |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Citizens | Maintains | Market Outperform | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. SHOP appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 12 Oct 2026, Shopify, Inc. returned +18.7% against +20.4% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 6% of US stocks
Cheaper than 10% of US stocks
Cheaper than 6% of US stocks
Cheaper than 2% of US stocks
Higher than 80% of US stocks
Higher than 78% of US stocks
Higher than 59% of US stocks
Higher than 76% of US stocks
Higher than 77% of US stocks
Higher than 75% of US stocks
Higher than 92% of US stocks
Higher than 1% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Shopify, Inc. has a market value of $229.1B and an enterprise value of $225.8B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $13.3B. The latest quarter grew 33.7% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $1.9B, a 14.5% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $1.48.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $2.4B.
Trailing P/E: 119.3×; forward P/E: 71.9× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.
Shopify, Inc. employs 7,600 people — $1.7M of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Shopify, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Shopify closed the recent trading day at $176.52, down 1.51% from the preceding trading day.
Why it matters — The decline is a recent trading move for investors tracking SHOP.
Shopify closed at $179.22 on Monday, just above its previous record close from Oct. 29, 2025. Its trailing-12-month free cash flow is around 29% higher than at that prior record.
Why it matters — The new closing high and higher trailing-12-month free cash flow provide SHOP watchers with an update on the stock’s record level and cash generation.
The comparison says Coupang generated more absolute revenue than Shopify in all eight comparable quarters reviewed. Coupang’s revenue grew steadily quarter over quarter, while Shopify showed recurring fourth-quarter spikes followed by early-year declines.
Why it matters — The revenue comparison and differing quarterly patterns provide context for assessing Shopify’s scale and seasonality.
The Motley Fool compares MercadoLibre’s integrated e-commerce and fintech ecosystem in Latin America with Shopify’s global software platform, which serves independent merchants across 175 countries.
Why it matters — The comparison highlights Shopify’s scale and global reach alongside MercadoLibre’s regional position for readers following SHOP.
Zacks Investment Research says digital wallets account for 56% of global online shopping spend, with AI and instant payments creating new opportunities. It names MA, SHOP, PYPL and MQ among the stocks standing out in mobile payments.
Why it matters — The item includes Shopify among four stocks highlighted amid growing digital-wallet adoption and changes in payments.
The 54 Wall Street analysts covering Shopify, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $178, with estimates ranging from $120 to $220. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 54 analysts covering Shopify, Inc., 42 rate it a Buy, 11 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Shopify, Inc. 73 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 9 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 9 Oct 2026, Shopify, Inc. ranks 73 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Quality (97 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 54 analysts implies -1.0% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Shopify, Inc. 73 out of 100 as at 9 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Shopify, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for SHOP are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $120 to $220 over the next 12 months.
Shopify, Inc. returned +18.7% over the 12 months to 12 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Shopify Inc. is a Canadian commerce technology company that provides software and services for businesses to create, manage, and grow retail operations across online and offline channels.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 13 Oct 2026): "Shopify (SHOP) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know". Shopify closed the recent trading day at $176.52, down 1.51% from the preceding trading day.
Shopify Inc. is a Canadian commerce technology company that provides software and services for businesses to create, manage, and grow retail operations across online and offline channels. Its core platform helps merchants build storefronts, manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, handle shipping, and maintain customer relationships. Shopify also offers merchant services such as integrated payment processing, point-of-sale tools, shipping labels, apps, themes, and financing-related products that support day-to-day commerce operations. The company serves businesses of many sizes across North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Founded in 2004 and headquartered in Ottawa, Canada, Shopify plays a central role in modern e-commerce by providing the digital infrastructure that connects merchants with consumers across web, mobile, social, and physical retail environments.
CEO Mr. Tobias Lutke · 7,600 employees · Canada · https://www.shopify.com
