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TCBX Stock Forecast: Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 8 Oct 2026
$42
+1.21% on the day

The 7 Wall Street analysts covering Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $48 — +14.9% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 60 of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$716.5M
Ticker Nerd rank
60 / 100
Median analyst target
$48
Analysts covering
7
Revenue$67.3M+30.5% y/y
Net income$22.0M
Free cash flow$44.1M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−2.6%
1M
−8.1%
YTD
+9.9%
1Y
+7.6%
From 52W high
−9.5%
From 52W low
+15.9%
$36
$46
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

TCBX stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 8 Oct 2026
60 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Value
82
Growth
72
Revisions
70
Momentum
69
Quality
68
Size
49
Volatility
33
Issuance
29
Accruals
13

Value (82): The shares cost little relative to the profits and assets behind them — which can mean the market is too gloomy, or that the business really is in trouble.

Accruals (13): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

TCBX stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on TCBX, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$35$40$45$50$55Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26TCBXHigh $54Median $48Low $40

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says7 analysts
4 Buy3 Hold0 Sell
Low $40Median $48High $54

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +14.9% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
25 Sept 2026StoneXInitiatesBuy—
27 Aug 2026Piper SandlerInitiatesOverweight—
3 Aug 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
24 Apr 2026Stephens & Co.MaintainsOverweight—
7 Apr 2026Raymond JamesUpgradeOutperform—
26 Jan 2026Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
30 Oct 2025Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
28 Oct 2025Stephens & Co.MaintainsOverweight—
28 July 2025Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
25 Apr 2025Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsMaintainsMarket Perform—
25 Apr 2025Stephens & Co.MaintainsOverweight—
2 Apr 2025Raymond JamesDowngradeMarket Perform—
29 Jan 2025Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsDowngradeMarket Perform—
24 Jan 2025Raymond JamesReiteratesOutperform—
23 Jan 2025Stephens & Co.ReiteratesOverweight—
29 July 2024Deutsche BankMaintainsHold—
29 July 2024Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsReiteratesOutperform—
29 Jan 2024Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform—
11 Jan 2024Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsInitiatesOutperform—
27 Oct 2023Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. TCBX appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

TCBX vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 8 Oct 2026, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. returned +7.6% against +16.2% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

TCBX vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
95100105110115120Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26TCBXS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

TCBX analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+1.0%
Analysts raising
2
Analysts cutting
0
Fundamentals

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
10.4×

Cheaper than 57% of US stocks

Price / sales
3.0×

Cheaper than 40% of US stocks

Price / book
1.0×

Cheaper than 70% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
—
Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
32.1%

Higher than 79% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
31.3%

Higher than 66% of US stocks

Gross margin
—
Operating margin
42.7%

Higher than 93% of US stocks

Net margin
32.5%

Higher than 91% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
12.7%

Higher than 70% of US stocks

Return on assets
1.3%

Higher than 53% of US stocks

Dividend yield
0.0%

Higher than 1% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. has a market value of $716.5M and an enterprise value of $466.5M.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $235.0M. The latest quarter grew 32.1% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $74.3M, a 31.6% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $4.01.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $15.8M.

  • Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. spent $4.8M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 16.6M.

  • Trailing P/E: 10.4×; forward P/E: 9.7× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 0.00%, paying out 0% of earnings.

  • Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. employs 477 people — $493K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 7 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

TCBX vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelBanks - Regional
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
TCBXThird Coast Bancshares, Inc.$716.5M
60
AROWArrow Financial Corp.$685.9M
63
PFISPeoples Financial Services Corp.$691.4M
55
BCALCalifornia Bancorp$693.8M
88
CARECarter Bankshares, Inc.$675.2M
99
MSBIMidland States Bancorp, Inc.$675.0M
90
CWBCCommunity West Bancshares$703.1M
29

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest TCBX news & analysis

TCBX Stock Alert: Halper Sadeh LLC is Investigating Whether Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. is Obtaining a Fair Price for its Shareholders

Business Wire · 7 Oct 2026neutral

Halper Sadeh LLC is investigating whether Third Coast Bancshares is obtaining a fair price for shareholders in its proposed merger with Great Plains Bancshares. Upon completion, Third Coast shareholders are expected to own 78% of the combined company.

Why it matters — The proposed merger and the law firm's shareholder-rights investigation are relevant to TCBX shareholders assessing the transaction.

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. and Great Plains Bancshares, Inc. Announce Definitive Merger Agreement

PRNewsWire · 7 Oct 2026positive

Third Coast Bancshares announced a definitive agreement to acquire Great Plains Bancshares in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $239.6 million, based on TCBX’s October 6, 2026 closing price. The combined company is expected to have approximately $9 billion in assets after completion.

Why it matters — The proposed acquisition would expand TCBX’s scale, with pro forma assets expected to exceed $9 billion once the transaction is completed.

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. Announces 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Release and Conference Call Schedule

PRNewsWire · 30 Sept 2026neutral

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. announced it will report its 2026 third quarter financial results on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, after the market closes. The company also scheduled a conference call in conjunction with the earnings release.

Why it matters — The announcement provides TCBX watchers with the date and schedule for accessing the company's upcoming third quarter earnings report and conference call.

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend on its 6.75% Series A Convertible Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock

PRNewsWire · 17 Sept 2026neutral

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $17.25 per share on its 6.75% Series A Convertible Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock. The announcement was made on September 17, 2026.

Why it matters — TCBX watchers would care because the declaration confirms the company is continuing to pay the scheduled dividend on its preferred stock.

Third Coast Bancshares Still Looks Like A Buy

Seeking Alpha · 5 Aug 2026positive

Third Coast Bancshares reported Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.95, beating expectations by $0.03, with growth in loan and deposit portfolios and a 16-point improvement in net interest margin compared to Q1.

Why it matters — The earnings beat and improving net interest margin signal continued operational momentum for TCBX heading into the second half of 2026.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about TCBX stock

What is the TCBX stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 7 Wall Street analysts covering Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $48, with estimates ranging from $40 to $54. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is TCBX stock a buy right now?

Of the 7 analysts covering Third Coast Bancshares, Inc., 4 rate it a Buy, 3 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. 60 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 8 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank TCBX?

As at 8 Oct 2026, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. ranks 60 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Value (82 of 100).

Will TCBX stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 7 analysts implies +14.9% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. 60 out of 100 as at 8 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the TCBX stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for TCBX are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $40 to $54 over the next 12 months.

How has TCBX stock performed over the past year?

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. returned +7.6% over the 12 months to 8 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. do?

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. Common Stock is the equity security of a Texas-based bank holding company that operates Third Coast Bank.

What is the latest news on TCBX?

The most recent item we track (Business Wire, 7 Oct 2026): "TCBX Stock Alert: Halper Sadeh LLC is Investigating Whether Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. is Obtaining a Fair Price for its Shareholders". Halper Sadeh LLC is investigating whether Third Coast Bancshares is obtaining a fair price for shareholders in its proposed merger with Great Plains Bancshares. Upon completion, Third Coast shareholders are expected to own 78% of the combined company.

Company

About Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. Common Stock is the equity security of a Texas-based bank holding company that operates Third Coast Bank. The company provides a range of commercial banking services for small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and local communities, including checking and savings accounts, money market products, certificates of deposit, and online banking. Its lending activities cover commercial and industrial credit, commercial and residential real estate, construction and development financing, consumer lending, and other business-focused loan solutions. Third Coast Bancshares also supports treasury and deposit services designed to help clients manage daily cash flow and business operations. As a publicly traded financial asset, the common stock reflects exposure to the banking and lending segment of the financial market and represents an ownership interest in a regional banking franchise serving Texas markets.

CEO Mr. Bart O. Caraway CPA · 477 employees · United States · https://www.thirdcoast.bank