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VELVELFinancial Services · Mortgage Finance

VEL Stock Forecast: Velocity Financial, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 18 Sept 2026
$16
−0.37% on the day

The 3 Wall Street analysts covering Velocity Financial, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $22 — +37.5% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 77 of 100 as at 19 Sept 2026 — inside the top quartile. Here, the model and the Street point the same way.

Market cap
$634.1M
Ticker Nerd rank
77 / 100
Median analyst target
$22
Analysts covering
3
Revenue$78.9M+1.1% y/y
Net income$25.7M
Free cash flow$3.4M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−11.0%
1M
−11.3%
YTD
−22.9%
1Y
−13.2%
From 52W high
−22.9%
From 52W low
0.0%
$16
$21
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

VEL stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Velocity Financial, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 19 Sept 2026
77 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Growth
96
Quality
90
Volatility
89
Value
82
Revisions
77
Momentum
54
Size
50
Issuance
16
Accruals
14

Growth (96): Sales and profits are climbing, and climbing faster than before.

Accruals (14): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

VEL stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on VEL, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$16$18$20$22$24Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26VELHigh $24Median $22Low $19

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says3 analysts
2 Buy0 Hold1 Sell
Low $19Median $22High $24

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +37.5% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first
DateFirmActionRatingTarget
7 Aug 2026Wells FargoMaintainsUnderweight$20 → $19
17 June 2026BTIGMaintainsBuy—
17 June 2026BTIGMaintainsBuy$23 → $22
7 May 2026CitizensMaintainsMarket Outperform—
17 Mar 2026BTIGReiteratesBuy—
21 Nov 2025BTIGReiteratesBuy—
7 Nov 2025CitizensMaintainsMarket Outperform—
10 June 2025JMP SecuritiesReiteratesMarket Outperform—
7 Mar 2025Citizens Capital MarketsReiteratesMarket Outperform—
12 Nov 2024BTIGMaintainsBuy—
20 Sept 2024Wells FargoDowngradeUnderweight—
16 Sept 2024JMP SecuritiesReiteratesMarket Outperform—
2 Aug 2024BTIGMaintainsBuy—
2 Aug 2024JMP SecuritiesMaintainsMarket Outperform—
30 May 2024Raymond JamesReiteratesOutperform—
30 Apr 2024JMP SecuritiesMaintainsMarket Outperform—
15 Mar 2024Raymond JamesReiteratesOutperform—
11 Mar 2024BTIGMaintainsBuy—
11 Mar 2024CitigroupMaintainsNeutral—
8 Mar 2024JMP SecuritiesMaintainsMarket Outperform—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. VEL appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

VEL vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 18 Sept 2026, Velocity Financial, Inc. returned −13.2% against +16.3% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

VEL vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
8090100110120Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26VELS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

VEL analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
+7.9%
Analysts raising
2
Analysts cutting
0
Fundamentals

Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
5.8×

Cheaper than 65% of US stocks

Price / sales
2.2×

Cheaper than 49% of US stocks

Price / book
0.9×

Cheaper than 76% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
—
Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
22.7%

Higher than 72% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
−3.2%

Higher than 33% of US stocks

Gross margin
—
Operating margin
52.1%

Higher than 97% of US stocks

Net margin
37.9%

Higher than 94% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
16.3%

Higher than 76% of US stocks

Return on assets
1.5%

Higher than 55% of US stocks

Dividend yield
—

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Velocity Financial, Inc. has a market value of $634.1M and an enterprise value of $7.6B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $327.4M. The latest quarter grew 22.7% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $108.2M, a 33.0% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $2.75.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $20.7M, after $1.9M of capital spending.

  • Velocity Financial, Inc. spent $7.5M on share buybacks in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 39.3M.

  • Trailing P/E: 5.8×; forward P/E: 5.3× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Velocity Financial, Inc. employs 364 people — $899K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 18 Sept 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

VEL vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelMortgage Finance
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
VELVelocity Financial, Inc.$634.1M
77
WDWalker & Dunlop, Inc.$1.3B
29
ONITOnity Group, Inc.$270.9M
78
LDIloanDepot, Inc.$233.7M
11
BETRBetter Home & Finance Holding Co.$223.7M
10
UWMCUWM Holdings Corp.$2.0B
8
PFSIPennyMac Financial Services, Inc.$3.4B
28

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Velocity Financial, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest VEL news & analysis

Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL) M&A Call Prepared Remarks Transcript

Seeking Alpha · 27 Aug 2026neutral

Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL) held an M&A call, the prepared remarks of which have been published as a transcript. The transcript covers the company's merger and acquisition discussions and related prepared commentary.

Why it matters — VEL watchers would care because the M&A call transcript provides official insight into the company's merger and acquisition activity and management's prepared remarks on the matter.

Velocity Enters into Agreements to Acquire Toorak's Operating Platform and Manage Toorak's $3 Billion Business-Purpose Loan Portfolio

Business Wire · 27 Aug 2026positive

Velocity Financial announced a definitive agreement to acquire the operating platform of Toorak Capital LLC, a business-purpose lending and asset management platform majority owned by KKR-affiliated funds. Velocity will also manage Toorak's approximately $3 billion business-purpose loan portfolio, while Toorak has entered separate agreements for the sale of its existing portfolio to a third-party investment firm.

Why it matters — The deal significantly expands Velocity's managed loan portfolio and scales its business-purpose lending platform through a strategic partnership with a KKR-backed firm.

Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Seeking Alpha · 6 Aug 2026neutral

Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL) released the transcript of its Q2 2026 earnings call, published via Seeking Alpha. The transcript covers the company's second-quarter 2026 earnings discussion.

Why it matters — VEL watchers would care because the earnings call transcript provides direct insight into the company's recent quarterly performance and management commentary.

Velocity Financial, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results

Business Wire · 5 Aug 2026neutral

Velocity Financial reported second quarter 2026 results, with net income of $25.2 million and core net income of $27.9 million, compared to $26.0 million and $27.5 million respectively in the prior-year quarter. Diluted earnings per share were $0.64 and core earnings per share were $0.71, versus $0.69 and $0.73 in 2Q25.

Why it matters — VEL watchers would be interested in the company's latest quarterly earnings and per-share figures, which show a slight decline in net income but a modest rise in core net income year over year.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about VEL stock

What is the VEL stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 3 Wall Street analysts covering Velocity Financial, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $22, with estimates ranging from $19 to $24. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is VEL stock a buy right now?

Of the 3 analysts covering Velocity Financial, Inc., 2 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Velocity Financial, Inc. 77 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 19 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank VEL?

As at 19 Sept 2026, Velocity Financial, Inc. ranks 77 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Growth (96 of 100).

Will VEL stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 3 analysts implies +37.5% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Velocity Financial, Inc. 77 out of 100 as at 19 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the VEL stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Velocity Financial, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for VEL are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $19 to $24 over the next 12 months.

How has VEL stock performed over the past year?

Velocity Financial, Inc. returned -13.2% over the 12 months to 18 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Velocity Financial, Inc. do?

Velocity Financial Inc. is a U.S.

What is the latest news on VEL?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 27 Aug 2026): "Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL) M&A Call Prepared Remarks Transcript". Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL) held an M&A call, the prepared remarks of which have been published as a transcript. The transcript covers the company's merger and acquisition discussions and related prepared commentary.

Company

About Velocity Financial, Inc.

Velocity Financial Inc. is a U.S. real estate finance company that specializes in business-purpose lending for investors. The company originates, securitizes, and manages loans secured by residential rental and small commercial properties, with additional exposure to multi-family, mixed-use, and other income-producing real estate. Its lending platform serves real estate investors through independent mortgage brokers and direct relationships, supporting financing for 1–4 unit rental properties and selected commercial assets. Velocity Financial also provides loan servicing and uses a vertically integrated model that connects loan origination, portfolio management, and capital market execution. Founded in 2004 and headquartered in Westlake Village, California, Velocity Financial plays a focused role in the nonbank mortgage and specialty finance market by supplying tailored real estate financing solutions to borrowers seeking property-backed funding.

CEO Mr. Christopher D. Farrar · 364 employees · United States · https://www.velfinance.com