ADPTechnology · Software - ApplicationThe 18 Wall Street analysts covering Automatic Data Processing, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $287 — -0.7% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 71 of 100 as at 15 Oct 2026 — in the upper half. The factors read stronger than the Street's target implies. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Automatic Data Processing, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Issuance (97): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.
Accruals (47): A large share of reported profit has not shown up as cash, or the balance sheet is expanding quickly — both tend to unwind.
Size (2): Larger than most of the companies we track — more scrutinised, less often mispriced.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ADP, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits −0.7% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 11 moved their price target up and 0 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterates | Overweight | $310 |
| 3 Aug 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Overweight | $295 → $310 |
| 30 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Neutral | $230 → $287 |
| 30 July 2026 | Guggenheim | Maintains | Buy | $270 → $300 |
| 30 July 2026 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $240 → $286 |
| 30 July 2026 | Stifel | Maintains | Hold | $260 → $285 |
| 30 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $248 → $283 |
| 22 July 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Overweight | $244 → $295 |
| 22 July 2026 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 22 July 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | $260 → $270 |
| 22 July 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 21 July 2026 | Guggenheim | Reiterates | Buy | — |
| 21 July 2026 | Guggenheim | Reiterates | Buy | $270 |
| 9 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | — |
| 9 July 2026 | Wells Fargo | Maintains | Equal-Weight | $214 → $248 |
| 8 July 2026 | Stifel | Maintains | Hold | — |
| 8 July 2026 | Stifel | Maintains | Hold | $240 → $260 |
| 6 July 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Hold | — |
| 6 July 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Hold | $216 → $223 |
| 18 May 2026 | Wells Fargo | Upgrade | Equal-Weight | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. ADP appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 16 Oct 2026, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. returned +6.2% against +16.8% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 30% of US stocks
Cheaper than 23% of US stocks
Cheaper than 5% of US stocks
Cheaper than 18% of US stocks
Higher than 43% of US stocks
Higher than 44% of US stocks
Higher than 57% of US stocks
Higher than 82% of US stocks
Higher than 82% of US stocks
Higher than 95% of US stocks
Higher than 82% of US stocks
Higher than 82% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. has a market value of $111.1B and an enterprise value of $112.6B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $21.9B. The latest quarter grew 6.8% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $4.4B, a 20.1% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $10.94.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $4.8B, after $196.6M of capital spending.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. spent $2.1B on share buybacks and $2.6B on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 25.2×; forward P/E: 20.9× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 2.42%, paying out 61% of earnings.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. employs 67,000 people — $328K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Automatic Data Processing, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
ADP Chief Economist and ESG Officer Nela Richardson said the US economy is lopsided, with inflation running hot while paychecks are not keeping up, according to new data.
Why it matters — ADP watchers may note Richardson’s assessment of inflation and paycheck trends as context on economic conditions.
A 24/7 Wall Street article highlights five businesses in trash, chemicals, and payroll that it says can raise prices without losing enough customers to prevent earnings growth. ADP is included among the payroll businesses discussed.
Why it matters — The article places ADP in the context of payroll companies’ ability to pass on higher prices while retaining customers.
ADP’s NER Pulse preliminary estimate said U.S. private employers added an average of 24,750 jobs per week during the four weeks ending September 26, 2026.
Why it matters — The update provides ADP watchers with a weekly estimate of private-sector employment growth ahead of the monthly ADP National Employment Report.
Seeking Alpha’s October 2026 article describes a monthly screen for five large-cap dividend stocks considered relatively safe and discounted versus historical norms. It also presents two additional groups of five stocks, with yields up to 8%.
Why it matters — ADP watchers may note the article’s dividend-stock screening context, though the excerpt does not say whether ADP was included.
Zacks Investment Research highlights ADP’s strong stock performance, AI integration, strategic acquisitions and healthy cash flow as indicators of sustained growth in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters — ADP watchers may consider how these factors could support the company’s growth outlook.
The 18 Wall Street analysts covering Automatic Data Processing, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $287, with estimates ranging from $225 to $322. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 18 analysts covering Automatic Data Processing, Inc., 4 rate it a Buy, 12 a Hold and 2 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Automatic Data Processing, Inc. 71 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 15 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 15 Oct 2026, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ranks 71 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (97 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 18 analysts implies -0.7% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Automatic Data Processing, Inc. 71 out of 100 as at 15 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Automatic Data Processing, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ADP are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $225 to $322 over the next 12 months.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. returned +6.2% over the 12 months to 16 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Automatic Data Processing Inc. is a global human capital management and business process outsourcing company that provides cloud-based solutions for payroll, human resources, talent, time tracking, tax, benefits administration, analytics, and compliance.
The most recent item we track (Bloomberg Markets and Finance, 15 Oct 2026): "ADP's Richardson: This Is a Lopsided Economy". ADP Chief Economist and ESG Officer Nela Richardson said the US economy is lopsided, with inflation running hot while paychecks are not keeping up, according to new data.
Automatic Data Processing Inc. is a global human capital management and business process outsourcing company that provides cloud-based solutions for payroll, human resources, talent, time tracking, tax, benefits administration, analytics, and compliance. The company serves businesses of all sizes, from small organizations to large multinational enterprises, through software platforms and outsourced services designed to streamline workforce administration. Its offerings support core HR operations such as employee onboarding, payroll processing, benefits management, and labor compliance, while also helping clients manage data, reporting, and workforce planning. Automatic Data Processing Inc. operates across multiple business segments, including employer services and professional employer organization services, making it a major provider in the broader HR technology and outsourcing market.
CEO Ms. Maria Black · 67,000 employees · United States · https://www.adp.com
