ALKIndustrials · AirlinesThe 16 Wall Street analysts covering Alaska Air Group, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $55 — +37.8% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 24 of 100 as at 15 Sept 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Alaska Air Group, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Value (70): The shares cost little relative to the profits and assets behind them — which can mean the market is too gloomy, or that the business really is in trouble.
Growth (22): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ALK, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +37.8% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 4 moved their price target up and 7 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sept 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | $65 → $52 |
| 10 Sept 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $56 → $52 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Raymond James | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Raymond James | Maintains | Outperform | $60 → $52 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 24 Aug 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | $59 → $46 |
| 24 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Sell | — |
| 24 July 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Sell | $47 → $37 |
| 24 July 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 24 July 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | $94 → $92 |
| 22 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 22 July 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | $70 → $65 |
| 7 July 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Positive | — |
| 7 July 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Positive | $50 → $70 |
| 2 July 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 2 July 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Outperform | $55 → $63 |
| 2 July 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 2 July 2026 | Goldman Sachs | Maintains | Buy | $58 → $69 |
| 2 July 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 2 July 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | $51 → $59 |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.
Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. ALK appears on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 15 Sept 2026, Alaska Air Group, Inc. returned −32.5% against +15.9% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 8% of US stocks
Cheaper than 89% of US stocks
Cheaper than 66% of US stocks
Cheaper than 26% of US stocks
Higher than 51% of US stocks
Higher than 48% of US stocks
Higher than 7% of US stocks
Higher than 29% of US stocks
Higher than 28% of US stocks
Higher than 40% of US stocks
Higher than 43% of US stocks
Higher than 73% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. has a market value of $4.5B and an enterprise value of $9.5B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $14.8B. The latest quarter grew 9.7% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: −$175.0M, a −1.2% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−1.57.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$350.0M.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. spent $285.0M on share buybacks in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 94.1×; forward P/E: 8.3× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 3.68%, paying out 0% of earnings.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. employs 31,596 people — $467K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Alaska Air Group, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Alaska Air Group (ALK) stock declined, closing the recent trading session at $40.71, a -1.09% move from its prior day's close. The drop outpaced the broader market's movement for the day.
Why it matters — An ALK watcher would care because the stock's decline relative to the market reflects a notable daily price move for the company.
ALK announced that its Executive Vice President and CFO, Claus Steensen Sølje, will participate in a fireside chat at the Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference in New York City, scheduled for Monday, 14 September 2026 at 3.20 PM EDT.
Why it matters — ALK watchers may be interested in the company's CFO representing ALK at a major investor conference, offering potential visibility for the company.
Alaska Airlines is expanding its San Diego network by adding seasonal nonstop service to Loreto, its 50th nonstop destination from that city. The expansion is part of broader investments in loyalty programs and passenger experience.
Why it matters — This route expansion reflects Alaska Air Group's continued network growth in a key market while it focuses on enhancing customer loyalty and experience.
Alaska Air Group (ALK) shares closed at $40.74 in the most recent trading day, a decline of 3.09% from the prior session. This drop was larger than the broader market's fall.
Why it matters — A decline larger than the broader market signals current negative momentum for ALK stock that watchers would note.
On September 1, UNITE HERE Locals 11 and 2 filed a formal complaint asking Alaska Air Group to enforce its Supplier Code of Conduct against inflight caterer Flying Food Group, which serves Alaska subsidiary Hawaiian Airlines at Los Angeles International Airport and previously served San Francisco International Airport. The complaint requests Alaska to stop sourcing from FFG until it complies.
Why it matters — Alaska Air Group faces a labor-related complaint involving a supplier to its Hawaiian Airlines subsidiary, potentially affecting its catering operations and supplier-compliance reputation.
The 16 Wall Street analysts covering Alaska Air Group, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $55, with estimates ranging from $37 to $92. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 16 analysts covering Alaska Air Group, Inc., 15 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Alaska Air Group, Inc. 24 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 15 Sept 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 15 Sept 2026, Alaska Air Group, Inc. ranks 24 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Value (70 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 16 analysts implies +37.8% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Alaska Air Group, Inc. 24 out of 100 as at 15 Sept 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Alaska Air Group, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ALK are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $37 to $92 over the next 12 months.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. returned -32.5% over the 12 months to 15 Sept 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Alaska Air Group Inc. is an airline holding company that operates scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation through its Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional segments.
The most recent item we track (Zacks Investment Research, 14 Sept 2026): "Alaska Air Group (ALK) Declines More Than Market: Some Information for Investors". Alaska Air Group (ALK) stock declined, closing the recent trading session at $40.71, a -1.09% move from its prior day's close. The drop outpaced the broader market's movement for the day.
Alaska Air Group Inc. is an airline holding company that operates scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation through its Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional segments. Alaska Airlines serves a broad network across the United States and select destinations in Latin America and the Pacific, while the Regional segment provides shorter-haul service through Horizon Air and other partner carriers. The company also supports freight and mail transportation, airport and ground services, and related aviation operations through its subsidiaries. Alaska Air Group serves both leisure and business travelers and plays a key role in connecting major metropolitan markets with regional and long-haul routes. Headquartered in Seattle, Washington and founded in 1932, Alaska Air Group remains a significant participant in North American commercial aviation.
CEO Mr. Benito Minicucci · 31,596 employees · United States · https://www.alaskaair.com
