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ALK Stock Forecast: Alaska Air Group, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 5 Oct 2026
$39
−0.86% on the day

The 16 Wall Street analysts covering Alaska Air Group, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $53 — +35.2% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 24 of 100 as at 5 Oct 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.

Market cap
$4.4B
Ticker Nerd rank
24 / 100
Median analyst target
$53
Analysts covering
16
Revenue$4.1B+9.7% y/y
Operating income−$126.0M
Net income−$76.0M
Free cash flow$0.0
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
−1.3%
1M
−6.8%
YTD
−22.1%
1Y
−20.3%
From 52W high
−34.9%
From 52W low
+14.6%
$34
$60
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

ALK stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Alaska Air Group, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 5 Oct 2026
24 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Value
68
Accruals
58
Issuance
58
Volatility
50
Quality
39
Revisions
34
Size
25
Growth
22
Momentum
18

Value (68): The shares cost little relative to the profits and assets behind them — which can mean the market is too gloomy, or that the business really is in trouble.

Momentum (18): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

ALK stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ALK, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$30$40$50$60$70$80$90$100Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26ALKHigh $92Median $53Low $37

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says16 analysts
15 Buy0 Hold1 Sell
Low $37Median $53High $92

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +35.2% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 2 moved their price target up and 9 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
2 Oct 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$46 → $44
28 Sept 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsOutperform$63 → $50
22 Sept 2026UBSMaintainsBuy$52 → $54
11 Sept 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight$65 → $52
11 Sept 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
10 Sept 2026UBSMaintainsBuy$56 → $52
10 Sept 2026UBSMaintainsBuy—
24 Aug 2026Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform$60 → $52
24 Aug 2026Raymond JamesMaintainsOutperform—
24 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy$59 → $46
24 Aug 2026TD CowenMaintainsBuy—
24 July 2026CitigroupMaintainsSell—
24 July 2026CitigroupMaintainsSell$47 → $37
24 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsOverweight$94 → $92
24 July 2026JP MorganMaintainsOverweight—
22 July 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight$70 → $65
22 July 2026BarclaysMaintainsOverweight—
7 July 2026SusquehannaMaintainsPositive$50 → $70
7 July 2026SusquehannaMaintainsPositive—
2 July 2026BMO CapitalMaintainsOutperform—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. ALK appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

ALK vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 5 Oct 2026, Alaska Air Group, Inc. returned −20.3% against +17.0% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

ALK vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
708090100110120130Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26ALKS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

ALK analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
Analysts raising
1
Analysts cutting
2
Fundamentals

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
94.1×

Cheaper than 8% of US stocks

Price / sales
0.3×

Cheaper than 89% of US stocks

Price / book
1.2×

Cheaper than 66% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
13.3×

Cheaper than 27% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
9.7%

Higher than 51% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
9.7%

Higher than 48% of US stocks

Gross margin
7.2%

Higher than 7% of US stocks

Operating margin
−2.9%

Higher than 29% of US stocks

Net margin
−1.2%

Higher than 28% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
−4.6%

Higher than 40% of US stocks

Return on assets
−0.1%

Higher than 43% of US stocks

Dividend yield
3.8%

Higher than 88% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • Alaska Air Group, Inc. has a market value of $4.4B and an enterprise value of $9.4B.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $14.8B. The latest quarter grew 9.7% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: −$175.0M, a −1.2% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−1.57.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$350.0M.

  • Alaska Air Group, Inc. spent $285.0M on share buybacks in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 111.6M.

  • Trailing P/E: 94.1×; forward P/E: 10.2× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 3.79%, paying out 0% of earnings.

  • Alaska Air Group, Inc. employs 31,596 people — $467K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 5 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

ALK vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelAirlines
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.$4.4B
24
SKYWSkyWest, Inc.$3.7B
77
CPACopa Holdings SA$5.6B
66
AALAmerican Airlines Group, Inc.$8.5B
52
ALGTAllegiant Travel Co.$2.0B
45
JBLUJetBlue Airways Corp.$1.5B
22
ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc.$1.4B
31

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Alaska Air Group, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest ALK news & analysis

Focus: Alaska Airlines takes its battle for Seattle with Delta overseas

Reuters · 2 Oct 2026neutral

Alaska Airlines is extending its long-running Seattle rivalry with Delta Air Lines into international markets, using the widebody jets acquired through its Hawaiian Airlines purchase to compete for premium international travelers.

Why it matters — This move signals how Alaska plans to leverage its Hawaiian Airlines acquisition to expand its competitive position internationally, which could reshape its premium route strategy for observers of the company.

Alaska Air Group (ALK) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know

Zacks Investment Research · 30 Sept 2026negative

Alaska Air Group (ALK) shares fell more steeply than the broader market in the latest trading day, settling at $38.7, a -3.08% change from its previous close.

Why it matters — An ALK watcher would care because the stock underperformed the broader market, which may signal market concerns about the company relative to its sector.

Alaska Air Advances With the Activation of Alaska Accelerate

Zacks Investment Research · 30 Sept 2026positive

Alaska Air Group announced progress on its "Alaska Accelerate" initiative, which targets $1 billion in incremental profit by 2027. The program includes global expansion, loyalty program upgrades, and fleet growth.

Why it matters — ALK watchers would care because the Alaska Accelerate initiative outlines a concrete profit-growth target tied to expansion and loyalty enhancements that could shape the company's near-term strategic and financial trajectory.

Why Elon Musk Says Delta's CEO ‘Will Lose His Job'

Investopedia · 30 Sept 2026neutral

Elon Musk has made critical remarks about Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian, suggesting he will lose his job. The article highlights tension between the two executives.

Why it matters — This item is relevant for Alaska Air Group watchers because it involves leadership dynamics at a major airline competitor, Delta Air Lines, which could influence industry sentiment.

Alaska and Hawaiian Airlines Raise the Bar for Premium Travel

Zacks Investment Research · 30 Sept 2026positive

Alaska and Hawaiian Airlines are expanding their premium travel offerings with new suites, premium economy seating, upgraded lounges, and enhanced onboard experiences across both airlines.

Why it matters — This signals an investment in the passenger experience and premium offerings, which could be relevant to ALK watchers tracking the company's product strategy and competitive positioning.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about ALK stock

What is the ALK stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 16 Wall Street analysts covering Alaska Air Group, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $53, with estimates ranging from $37 to $92. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is ALK stock a buy right now?

Of the 16 analysts covering Alaska Air Group, Inc., 15 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Alaska Air Group, Inc. 24 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 5 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank ALK?

As at 5 Oct 2026, Alaska Air Group, Inc. ranks 24 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Value (68 of 100).

Will ALK stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 16 analysts implies +35.2% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Alaska Air Group, Inc. 24 out of 100 as at 5 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the ALK stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering Alaska Air Group, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ALK are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $37 to $92 over the next 12 months.

How has ALK stock performed over the past year?

Alaska Air Group, Inc. returned -20.3% over the 12 months to 5 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does Alaska Air Group, Inc. do?

Alaska Air Group Inc. is an airline holding company that operates scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation through its Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional segments.

What is the latest news on ALK?

The most recent item we track (Reuters, 2 Oct 2026): "Focus: Alaska Airlines takes its battle for Seattle with Delta overseas". Alaska Airlines is extending its long-running Seattle rivalry with Delta Air Lines into international markets, using the widebody jets acquired through its Hawaiian Airlines purchase to compete for premium international travelers.

Company

About Alaska Air Group, Inc.

Alaska Air Group Inc. is an airline holding company that operates scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation through its Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional segments. Alaska Airlines serves a broad network across the United States and select destinations in Latin America and the Pacific, while the Regional segment provides shorter-haul service through Horizon Air and other partner carriers. The company also supports freight and mail transportation, airport and ground services, and related aviation operations through its subsidiaries. Alaska Air Group serves both leisure and business travelers and plays a key role in connecting major metropolitan markets with regional and long-haul routes. Headquartered in Seattle, Washington and founded in 1932, Alaska Air Group remains a significant participant in North American commercial aviation.

CEO Mr. Benito Minicucci · 31,596 employees · United States · https://www.alaskaair.com