ALKIndustrials · AirlinesThe 16 Wall Street analysts covering Alaska Air Group, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $51 — +40.6% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 24 of 100 as at 26 Oct 2026 — in the weakest quartile. The Street sees upside; the factor read is a caution. That gap is the story on this page.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Alaska Air Group, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Value (63): The shares cost little relative to the profits and assets behind them — which can mean the market is too gloomy, or that the business really is in trouble.
Growth (21): Sales and profits are flat, shrinking, or growing more slowly than they were.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on ALK, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +40.6% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 1 moved their price target up and 12 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Outperform | $50 → $42 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Citigroup | Maintains | Sell | $37 → $33 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | JP Morgan | Maintains | Overweight | $92 → $74 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Positive | $50 → $43 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $54 → $51 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Positive | $55 → $50 |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Susquehanna | Maintains | Positive | — |
| 2 Oct 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | $46 → $44 |
| 2 Oct 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 28 Sept 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Outperform | $63 → $50 |
| 28 Sept 2026 | BMO Capital | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 22 Sept 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $52 → $54 |
| 22 Sept 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 11 Sept 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | $65 → $52 |
| 11 Sept 2026 | Barclays | Maintains | Overweight | — |
| 10 Sept 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 10 Sept 2026 | UBS | Maintains | Buy | $56 → $52 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Raymond James | Maintains | Outperform | $60 → $52 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Raymond James | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 24 Aug 2026 | TD Cowen | Maintains | Buy | $59 → $46 |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
ALK appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 27 Oct 2026, Alaska Air Group, Inc. returned −19.8% against +13.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 8% of US stocks
Cheaper than 89% of US stocks
Cheaper than 67% of US stocks
Cheaper than 23% of US stocks
Higher than 62% of US stocks
Higher than 48% of US stocks
Higher than 7% of US stocks
Higher than 49% of US stocks
Higher than 27% of US stocks
Higher than 36% of US stocks
Higher than 42% of US stocks
Higher than 92% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. has a market value of $3.8B and an enterprise value of $9.1B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $14.8B. The latest quarter grew 14.4% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: −$175.0M, a −1.2% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $−1.57.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: −$350.0M.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. spent $285.0M on share buybacks in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 94.1×; forward P/E: 10.7× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 4.33%, paying out 0% of earnings.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. employs 31,787 people — $464K of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Alaska Air Group, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Reuters reports that U.S. airlines are prioritizing higher fares over fuller planes as fuel costs squeeze profits.
Why it matters — The report describes an industry pricing response to fuel-cost pressure that may be relevant to watchers of Alaska Air Group.
Seeking Alpha published a transcript of Alaska Air Group’s Q3 2026 earnings call, held October 21, 2026. The excerpt lists company and conference-call participants and provides the call’s opening, but no financial results or operating updates.
Why it matters — The transcript is a source for ALK watchers seeking management commentary, although the excerpt contains no substantive business or performance details.
The Motley Fool highlighted that diversified revenues reached 54% of Alaska Air Group’s total mix in the third quarter and premium traffic grew 24.5% year over year.
Why it matters — These figures provide ALK watchers with information about the company’s revenue mix and premium-traffic growth.
Alaska Air Group reported a third-quarter GAAP net loss of $147 million, or $1.32 per share. Higher revenue and improving unit-revenue trends were offset by elevated fuel costs, which weighed on profitability.
Why it matters — The results highlight the impact of fuel costs on ALK's profitability despite improved revenue trends.
Alaska Air Group beat Q3 earnings estimates, supported by strong yields and revenue growth. Surging fuel costs squeezed profits and weighed on the Q4 outlook.
Why it matters — ALK watchers may weigh the earnings beat and revenue strength against fuel-cost pressure and the weaker Q4 outlook.
The 16 Wall Street analysts covering Alaska Air Group, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $51, with estimates ranging from $33 to $78. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 16 analysts covering Alaska Air Group, Inc., 15 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 1 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Alaska Air Group, Inc. 24 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 26 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 26 Oct 2026, Alaska Air Group, Inc. ranks 24 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Value (63 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 16 analysts implies +40.6% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Alaska Air Group, Inc. 24 out of 100 as at 26 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Alaska Air Group, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for ALK are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $33 to $78 over the next 12 months.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. returned -19.8% over the 12 months to 27 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Alaska Air Group Inc. is an airline holding company that operates scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation through its Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional segments.
The most recent item we track (Reuters, 23 Oct 2026): "US airlines favor higher fares over fuller planes as fuel costs squeeze profits". Reuters reports that U.S. airlines are prioritizing higher fares over fuller planes as fuel costs squeeze profits.
Alaska Air Group Inc. is an airline holding company that operates scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation through its Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional segments. Alaska Airlines serves a broad network across the United States and select destinations in Latin America and the Pacific, while the Regional segment provides shorter-haul service through Horizon Air and other partner carriers. The company also supports freight and mail transportation, airport and ground services, and related aviation operations through its subsidiaries. Alaska Air Group serves both leisure and business travelers and plays a key role in connecting major metropolitan markets with regional and long-haul routes. Headquartered in Seattle, Washington and founded in 1932, Alaska Air Group remains a significant participant in North American commercial aviation.
CEO Mr. Benito Minicucci · 31,787 employees · United States · https://www.alaskaair.com
