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AMSFAMSFFinancial Services · Insurance - Specialty

AMSF Stock Forecast: AMERISAFE, Inc. Price Predictions for 2026-2027

Last close, 14 Oct 2026
$25
−0.04% on the day

The 3 Wall Street analysts covering AMERISAFE, Inc. hold a median 12-month price target of $33 — +33.9% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 55 of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026 — in the upper half.

Market cap
$456.9M
Ticker Nerd rank
55 / 100
Median analyst target
$33
Analysts covering
3
Revenue$92.0M+13.4% y/y
Net income$14.6M
Free cash flow$1.8M
Quarterly, 8 quarters to 30 June 2026 · latest quarter's figure shown
Total return, dividends reinvested
1W
+1.4%
1M
−1.8%
YTD
−33.4%
1Y
−37.2%
From 52W high
−37.2%
From 52W low
+5.8%
$23
$39
52-week range, adjusted closes · the dot is the last close
Ticker Nerd rank

AMSF stock analysis: one number for the whole business

Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores AMERISAFE, Inc. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.

Where the model ranks itAs at 14 Oct 2026
55 / 100

Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested

Issuance
82
Volatility
70
Accruals
63
Growth
63
Value
63
Quality
60
Size
53
Revisions
39
Momentum
8

Issuance (82): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.

Momentum (8): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.

Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs quant trader with fourteen years in markets.

Wall Street

AMSF stock forecast 2026-2027: analyst price targets & predictions

The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on AMSF, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.

Share price and the analyst range, 12 monthsAdjusted close, US dollars
$25$30$35$40Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26AMSFHigh $40Median $33Low $27

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Data provided by Twelve Data

What Wall Street says3 analysts
1 Buy2 Hold0 Sell
Low $27Median $33High $40

The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +33.9% from it.

Recent analyst actionsNewest first

Of the 20 most recent actions, 0 moved their price target up and 4 moved it down.

DateFirmActionRatingTarget
13 Oct 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainsHold$32 → $27
12 Oct 2026CitizensMaintainsMarket Outperform$42 → $40
23 July 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainsHold$34 → $32
23 Apr 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainsHold—
23 Apr 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainsHold$36 → $34
13 Apr 2026CitizensMaintainsMarket Outperform—
27 Feb 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainsHold—
16 Jan 2026CitizensMaintainsMarket Outperform—
14 Oct 2025JMP SecuritiesMaintainsMarket Outperform—
28 July 2025Truist SecuritiesMaintainsHold—
30 Apr 2025JMP SecuritiesReiteratesMarket Outperform—
25 Oct 2024Truist SecuritiesMaintainsHold—
15 Oct 2024JMP SecuritiesReiteratesMarket Outperform—
30 July 2024JMP SecuritiesReiteratesMarket Outperform—
15 Apr 2024JMP SecuritiesReiteratesMarket Outperform—
12 July 2023JMP SecuritiesReiteratesMarket Outperform—
27 Apr 2023JMP SecuritiesReiteratesMarket Outperform—
18 Apr 2023JMP SecuritiesReinstatesMarket Outperform$65
24 Feb 2023Janney Montgomery ScottInitiatesNeutral—
4 Mar 2022Truist SecuritiesDowngradeHold—

Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Market Radar

This page is one stock. Monday covers all of them.

Computed off the Friday close and sent before the US open.

Market Radar reports the week’s largest rank changes across roughly 4,600 US stocks, the factor behind each one, and where the market went. AMSF appears on the weeks it earns a place.

Free, every Monday. Unsubscribe any time.

Performance

AMSF vs the S&P 500

Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.

Over the twelve months to 14 Oct 2026, AMERISAFE, Inc. returned −37.2% against +17.5% for the S&P 500, dividends included.

AMSF vs S&P 500, last 12 monthsTotal return, rebased to 100
60708090100110120Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26AMSFS&P 500

Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.

Data provided by Twelve Data

Estimates

AMSF analyst estimate revisions

Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.

Which way the estimates are movingNext fiscal year
EPS revision, 90 days
−6.4%
Analysts raising
0
Analysts cutting
3
Fundamentals

AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) financial data

A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.

Valuation
Trailing P/E
9.9×

Cheaper than 58% of US stocks

Price / sales
1.4×

Cheaper than 61% of US stocks

Price / book
1.8×

Cheaper than 47% of US stocks

EV / EBITDA
6.3×

Cheaper than 50% of US stocks

Growth & margins
Revenue growth (YoY)
13.4%

Higher than 60% of US stocks

Earnings growth (YoY)
4.6%

Higher than 41% of US stocks

Gross margin
—
Operating margin
19.9%

Higher than 79% of US stocks

Net margin
14.0%

Higher than 76% of US stocks

Returns & dividend
Return on equity
18.2%

Higher than 79% of US stocks

Return on assets
3.2%

Higher than 66% of US stocks

Dividend yield
6.7%

Higher than 95% of US dividend payers

Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.

Key statistics

AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) statistics: revenue, profit & scale

The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.

  • AMERISAFE, Inc. has a market value of $456.9M and an enterprise value of $373.6M.

  • Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $335.7M. The latest quarter grew 13.4% year on year.

  • Net income over the same four quarters: $47.0M, a 14.0% net margin.

  • Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $2.48.

  • Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $19.3M, after $1.1M of capital spending.

  • AMERISAFE, Inc. spent $19.0M on share buybacks and $49.1M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

  • Shares outstanding: 18.5M.

  • Trailing P/E: 9.9×; forward P/E: 12.2× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.

  • Forward dividend yield: 6.66%, paying out 65% of earnings.

  • AMERISAFE, Inc. employs 362 people — $927K of revenue per employee.

Statement figures: company filings via Twelve Data, four quarters to 30 June 2026 · market figures as at 14 Oct 2026

Data provided by Twelve Data

Peers

AMSF vs competitors

The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.

Its peer group, ranked by the same modelInsurance - Specialty
CompanyMarket capTKN rank
AMSFAMERISAFE, Inc.$456.9M
55
ITICInvestors Title Co.$536.4M
55
EIGEmployers Holdings, Inc.$912.0M
57
MBIMBIA, Inc.$224.1M
31
OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc.$205.9M
32
JRVRJames River Group Holdings, Inc.$168.7M
60
NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc.$3.0B
69

Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.

The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own AMERISAFE, Inc. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →

News

Latest AMSF news & analysis

Buy 7 October Dividend Power Dogs If You Dare

Seeking Alpha · 14 Oct 2026neutral

Seeking Alpha highlights Invesco Mortgage Capital, MFA Financial and five other stocks on its October Dividend Power list for high yields and dividends described as backed by free cash flow. It says the ten stocks are projected to average 86.23% net gains by October 2027, based on analyst targets.

Why it matters — The excerpt does not mention Amerisafe, so it offers no company-specific information for an AMSF watcher.

AMERISAFE Announces 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Release and Conference Call Schedule

Business Wire · 1 Oct 2026neutral

AMERISAFE, Inc. announced the schedule for its 2026 third-quarter earnings release and associated conference call, according to a Business Wire release from Deridder, Louisiana. The announcement provides the dates and details for the upcoming quarterly financial results and investor call.

Why it matters — AMSF watchers would care because this schedule tells investors when to expect the company's third-quarter financial results and an opportunity to hear management's commentary.

Here's Why Investors Should Stay Neutral on AMSF Stock for Now

Zacks Investment Research · 30 Sept 2026neutral

Zacks Investment Research advises that investors stay neutral on AMERISAFE (AMSF) stock for now. The analysis notes that AMSF's premium gains and strong retention support growth, but rising claims costs and declining rates create challenges for investors.

Why it matters — An AMSF watcher would care because the report highlights a balance of supportive growth drivers against pressures from rising claims costs and declining rates that could affect the company's outlook.

Why Is Amerisafe (AMSF) Down 16% Since Last Earnings Report?

Zacks Investment Research · 20 Aug 2026negative

Amerisafe (AMSF) reported earnings 30 days ago, and its stock has declined 16% since that report, according to Zacks Investment Research. The article poses what is next for the stock following this period.

Why it matters — AMSF watchers would care because the 16% drop since the latest earnings report signals notable market reaction and shifts attention to the company's near-term outlook.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about AMSF stock

What is the AMSF stock price forecast for 2026-2027?

The 3 Wall Street analysts covering AMERISAFE, Inc. have a median 12-month price target of $33, with estimates ranging from $27 to $40. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.

Is AMSF stock a buy right now?

Of the 3 analysts covering AMERISAFE, Inc., 1 rate it a Buy, 2 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks AMERISAFE, Inc. 55 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 14 Oct 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.

How does Ticker Nerd's model rank AMSF?

As at 14 Oct 2026, AMERISAFE, Inc. ranks 55 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (82 of 100).

Will AMSF stock go up?

No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 3 analysts implies +33.9% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks AMERISAFE, Inc. 55 out of 100 as at 14 Oct 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.

What is the AMSF stock forecast for 2030?

No analyst covering AMERISAFE, Inc. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for AMSF are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $27 to $40 over the next 12 months.

How has AMSF stock performed over the past year?

AMERISAFE, Inc. returned -37.2% over the 12 months to 14 Oct 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

What does AMERISAFE, Inc. do?

Amerisafe Inc. is a specialty workers’ compensation insurance company that serves small to mid-sized employers in hazardous industries.

What is the latest news on AMSF?

The most recent item we track (Seeking Alpha, 14 Oct 2026): "Buy 7 October Dividend Power Dogs If You Dare". Seeking Alpha highlights Invesco Mortgage Capital, MFA Financial and five other stocks on its October Dividend Power list for high yields and dividends described as backed by free cash flow. It says the ten stocks are projected to average 86.23% net gains by October 2027, based on analyst targets.

Company

About AMERISAFE, Inc.

Amerisafe Inc. is a specialty workers’ compensation insurance company that serves small to mid-sized employers in hazardous industries. The company focuses on underwriting and managing coverage for businesses in sectors such as construction, trucking, logging and lumber, agriculture, manufacturing, maritime, and telecommunications. Its core offering includes workers’ compensation policies that provide statutory benefits for injured employees, along with related claims management, loss-control, safety, and premium audit services. Amerisafe distributes its products through independent agencies and its own general agency, supporting employers that operate in higher-risk environments. As a public insurer headquartered in DeRidder, Louisiana, Amerisafe occupies a focused niche within the U.S. property and casualty market, where its specialized underwriting approach and service model are central to its role in the insurance landscape.

CEO Ms. Gerry Janelle Frost · 362 employees · United States · https://www.amerisafe.com