AGOFinancial Services · Insurance - SpecialtyThe 3 Wall Street analysts covering Assured Guaranty Ltd. hold a median 12-month price target of $91 — +25.6% from the last close. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model, run across ~4,600 US stocks, ranks it 42 of 100 as at 3 Nov 2026 — in the lower half.
Consensus tells you what everyone already believes. The model scores Assured Guaranty Ltd. on its factor families — the same systematic rank behind the Ticker Nerd portfolio.
Percentile across ~4,600 US stocks on Ticker Nerd’s systematic factor model. Higher is better. How the model is built and tested
Issuance (91): The share count has been shrinking and the company is not leaning on new borrowing.
Momentum (23): The shares have been drifting down relative to others.
Built and run by Aslam Ghouse, an ex-Goldman Sachs systematic trader with 15+ years in markets.
The bullish and bearish analyst opinions on AGO, reported as data — targets and ratings, the market's view beside the model's.
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The green dot is the last close — the median target sits +25.6% from it.
Of the 20 most recent actions, 1 moved their price target up and 2 moved it down.
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sept 2026 | Roth Capital | Upgrade | Buy | $80 → $85 |
| 13 Aug 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Outperform | $101 → $97 |
| 13 Aug 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 17 July 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Outperform | $103 → $101 |
| 17 July 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 19 May 2026 | UBS | Upgrade | Buy | — |
| 19 May 2026 | UBS | Upgrade | Buy | $94 |
| 19 Mar 2026 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 19 Nov 2025 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 17 Nov 2025 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 13 Aug 2025 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 18 Nov 2024 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Outperform | — |
| 18 Nov 2024 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 17 Oct 2024 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 9 Aug 2024 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
| 9 July 2024 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Upgrade | Outperform | — |
| 9 July 2024 | Roth MKM | Maintains | Buy | — |
| 31 May 2024 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Maintains | Market Perform | — |
| 1 Apr 2024 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Downgrade | Market Perform | — |
| 1 Mar 2024 | UBS | Maintains | Neutral | — |
Price targets and ratings are third-party analyst estimates, reported here as data. They are not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
AGO appears in the Radar on the weeks it earns a place.
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Both lines are total return — dividends reinvested — so the comparison is honest on both sides.
Over the twelve months to 4 Nov 2026, Assured Guaranty Ltd. returned −10.4% against +14.8% for the S&P 500, dividends included.
Download this chart as an image — free to reuse; link this page as the source.
Data provided by Twelve Data
Not the forecast itself — the direction analysts are revising it. Revision direction is one of the model's factor families.
A margin means little on its own. Each bar marks where the figure sits across the whole US universe we score.
Cheaper than 59% of US stocks
Cheaper than 30% of US stocks
Cheaper than 81% of US stocks
Higher than 27% of US stocks
Higher than 8% of US stocks
Higher than 93% of US stocks
Higher than 95% of US stocks
Higher than 56% of US stocks
Higher than 56% of US stocks
Higher than 80% of US dividend payers
Bars mark the percentile across the ~4,600 US stocks Ticker Nerd covers, among those reporting the figure.
The headline figures, each with its date. Every row carries its own link — cite it straight from here.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. has a market value of $3.2B and an enterprise value of $3.6B.
Revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $871.0M. The latest quarter shrank 0.5% year on year.
Net income over the same four quarters: $377.0M, a 43.3% net margin.
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months: $7.50.
Free cash flow in the twelve months to 30 June 2026: $324.0M.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. spent $369.0M on share buybacks and $68.0M on dividends in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Trailing P/E: 9.7×; forward P/E: 10.3× — the forward figure prices analyst consensus estimates, not reported earnings.
Forward dividend yield: 2.10%, paying out 19% of earnings.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. employs 367 people — $2.4M of revenue per employee.
Data provided by Twelve Data
The nearest names by industry and size, scored by the same model — like for like.
Look up any of the roughly 4,600 stocks we score.
The rank is the raw material. Whether the rules would actually own Assured Guaranty Ltd. — and when they’d sell — is the membership. See the Ticker Nerd 20 →
Assured Guaranty Ltd. declared a quarterly dividend of $0.38 per common share, payable December 2, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on November 18, 2026.
Why it matters — AGO watchers may note the announced dividend amount and its payment and record dates.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. announced that it will release financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, after 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time on November 5, 2026. The release and the related financial supplement will be available in the Investor Information section of the company's website.
Why it matters — AGO watchers can note when the company's third-quarter results and financial supplement will become available.
Assured Guaranty is described as deeply undervalued, trading at 0.53x adjusted operating equity and 0.36x adjusted book value, with a re-rating path dependent on achieving a sustainable 10% ROE, where each ROE point is worth roughly $16 per share. The article notes buybacks remain highly accretive at current discounts, though capital is increasingly being shifted toward growth strategies such as annuity reinsurance.
Why it matters — AGO watchers would care because the piece highlights a clear valuation and re-rating framework tied to a targeted ROE path, alongside the company's evolving capital-allocation shift from buybacks toward annuity reinsurance growth.
Assured Guaranty Inc., a subsidiary of Assured Guaranty Ltd., issued a statement regarding the financial restructuring of Brightline Florida Holdings LLC and its affiliates, and the Chapter 11 filing of certain Brightline Florida entities. Brightline Trains Florida LLC (OpCo), the obligor on tax-exempt senior bonds insured by AG, is involved.
Why it matters — AGO watchers would care because the company insures the tax-exempt senior bonds of the Brightline Florida obligor, so this restructuring directly affects its insured exposure.
Assured Guaranty's market capitalization has fallen 40% since early 2024 due to a reduced share buyback program and persistent operational losses in its insurance business. The analysis argues that maintaining the AA rating does not translate into market value or profitability for shareholders.
Why it matters — AGO watchers would care because the commentary highlights ongoing operational losses and suggests the company's core insurance strategy may be undermining shareholder value.
The 3 Wall Street analysts covering Assured Guaranty Ltd. have a median 12-month price target of $91, with estimates ranging from $85 to $97. These are third-party analyst estimates, not Ticker Nerd forecasts, and they are frequently wrong.
Of the 3 analysts covering Assured Guaranty Ltd., 3 rate it a Buy, 0 a Hold and 0 a Sell. Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model ranks Assured Guaranty Ltd. 42 out of 100 across roughly 4,600 US stocks as at 3 Nov 2026. None of this is personal advice — it does not consider your circumstances.
As at 3 Nov 2026, Assured Guaranty Ltd. ranks 42 out of 100 on Ticker Nerd's systematic factor model — a percentile across roughly 4,600 US stocks, built from its factor families. Its strongest factor family is Issuance (91 of 100).
No one can know that. What the data says: the median 12-month target from 3 analysts implies +25.6% from the last close, and Ticker Nerd's factor model ranks Assured Guaranty Ltd. 42 out of 100 as at 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets are third-party estimates and frequently wrong; none of this is personal advice.
No analyst covering Assured Guaranty Ltd. publishes a 2030 price target — Wall Street targets run 12 to 18 months out. Sites quoting a 2030 price for AGO are extrapolating price history, which says nothing about the business. The furthest attributed numbers are the current analyst targets: $85 to $97 over the next 12 months.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. returned -10.4% over the 12 months to 4 Nov 2026, with dividends reinvested. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a Bermuda-based holding company that provides financial guaranty insurance and credit protection products through its subsidiaries.
The most recent item we track (Business Wire, 4 Nov 2026): "Assured Guaranty Ltd. Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.38 per Common Share". Assured Guaranty Ltd. declared a quarterly dividend of $0.38 per common share, payable December 2, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on November 18, 2026.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a Bermuda-based holding company that provides financial guaranty insurance and credit protection products through its subsidiaries. Assured Guaranty Ltd. serves public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally, helping support scheduled debt payments for municipal issuers, utilities, transportation projects, healthcare facilities, and other public or project finance obligations. The company operates through an Insurance segment, which includes its domestic and foreign insurance subsidiaries, and an Asset Management segment, which offers investment management services to outside investors and to the insurance business. Assured Guaranty Ltd. plays a specialized role in the financial market by underwriting credit risk and providing protection for debt investors and issuers across a broad range of financing structures.
CEO Mr. Dominic John Frederico CPA · 367 employees · Bermuda · https://assuredguaranty.com
